How do volatility contracts work?

Here's one source for Mt. Gox data:

 - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmcTCtjBoRWUdHJuUE1mUkFxa3A0eHBDQkxZLVVFZmc

Origin of data:

 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD

Choose custom date range, then click "Load raw data" link.

2012-05-10 Bitcoin Report: A Breakout Warning [MensNewsDaily.com
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=80755.0

Ha, that's from s3052's subscription service.

Posted by s3052, so it was intentionally published publicly.

There were three that just launched in the past couple of weeks:

 - http://www.BitcoinAdvertisers.com
 - http://www.ThroughAds.com
 - http://www.thebtcnetwork.com

And that is in addition to:
 - http://www.OperationFabulous.com
 - http://www.AnonymousAds.com



I know that ThroughAds has Cost per action (CPA), Cost per click (CPC) or Cost per 1,000 impressions (CPM) billing methods.  Others might have this as well.


That's coming.  Maybe not in one step like that, but when you have bitcoins you can today use them to buy mobile prepaid wireless monthly bills and top-up type plans.
 - http://btcbuy.info/CallingCards.cshtml

Another forum member was soliciting feedback on a bill payment system:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79669.msg883857#msg883857
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=78254.msg873107#msg873107

In reading the Tweets for new bets, I somehow notice the bet statement as if it were a news item or statement of fact, and not a bet statement with two options.

For Example:

- http://twitter.com/#!/betsofbitcoin/status/199679638841196544

What might help to make it more clear would be if there were appended some text to help point out that it is a bet.

e.g., I add [Agree or Disagree?]

Bet: Greece will leave the Euro in 2012 [Agree or Disagree?] http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=370 #bitcoin

Then it becomes a call to action.

But if I can double spend (e.g., Finney attack) to invalidate only my losing wagers, did I really lose?

See:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77870.msg882919#msg882919

First attempt at it didn't go so well:
 - http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8492.0

Next time, use BitInstant.

Well, the dip did come, below $5 as proudhon predicted.

So here we are, once again.  Wednesday evening (west) / Thursday morning (east).  Time to apply the test.

The high in the past week was a little under $5.20 (last week about this time) and the high in the 7 day period prior to that was just a tiny bit higher but also was just under $5.20.  So overall it looks like a downtrend does continue.  And as a result then, for the second week in aA row, the Weekend Dip indicator is flashing green.




 - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2012-04-18zeg2012-05-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25

This situation has historically been followed with a dip over the weekend.  The weekend dip strategy then suggests to sell bitcoins heading into this weekend and to then buy them back if a selloff occurs.  The time to buy back will vary.  If there is a quick selloff, then the rally back might be quick as well (usually thanks to arbitrage).

Last week selling at $5.084 and then buying back Sunday afternoon (west) at about $5.035 caused the trade to basically break even after considering the exchange fees.  Perfect timing with waiting and seeing the drop below $5 would have garnered a bit over a 1% gain.

As of this writing, the exchange rate is bouncing between $5.02 and $5.07 but it appears to be headed down.  Being the first to sell as it goes down further gets the best price, so there's no gain from being patient here.  So, here goes ... selling at $5.05 into the weekend, hoping for a dip.



Factors that might cause selling at $5.05 to end up being a dumb move?

Well, there's a few things going on in Europe, for one.  Bitcoin is probably seeing some demand as a result.  BitcoinNordic writes:

"Demand has lately been too high for us to keep up. Expect a refill of Bitcoins in a day or two. Also, we're acquiring more liquidity soon."
 - http://twitter.com/#!/BitcoinNordic/status/200356315401433088

Additionally, the novelty among first-time players of SatoshiDICE should be wearing off soon but their daily transaction counts are holding up, meaning here's another area where Bitcoin serves a need very well.  And the weekend dip strategy had never been tested with this scenario of a runaway success afoot.  As the currency finds wider and wider use elsewhere as well, the demand will go up.

As a result of a promising future, fewer parties are willing to sell aggressively.  They and others look to buy more with anything that looks like a dip.

If a new rally up is to start could it come between now and Monday?   It has happened before.  

Whatever the chances though they probably pale in comparison to the weekend dip strategy's success ratio.

And for that reason, selling at $5.05 might not end up being a mistake after all.

Just to make sure there is no understanding, the fee you add when you send a transaction will not help nor hurt the payout transaction from SatoshiDICE.  They are two completely separate transactions as far as any benefit from adding fees go.

The amount and the age of the coins used in the spend are relevant.  Bitcoin wasn't designed to be a microtransaction payment system so smaller SatoshiDICE wagers and payouts (particularly on the losing wagers) will appear to the network to be spam-like.  The more popular SatoshiDICE (and other ways microtransactions occur) becomes more popular the problem as you describe will become more widely felt.

Doh! You're right, disquss message shows it was commented four months ago

If you re-listen to the last few seconds of the video you will know the context, and it is not "to threaten" or "extort" or "cheat".   They would have used the phrase "Fuck banks" but couldn't for obvious reasons.  To me, there is little doubt as to the meaning.

As far as to whom a message must resonate the most with (assuming there's only one message to deliver), see the left half or so of the following:



 - http://payments.intuit.com/mobile-payments-infographics

Multibit and Armory aren't close enough?

Let's say the difficulty in December is up over 15% from here.

But to get there from here saw a 10% rise in the next adjustment, then a 8% drop in the one after, over and over for the next 14 adjustments remaining before block 210,000.

Even with the difficuly increasing, the date for 210,000 would be pushed later, past December 9th even I believe.  That is because the faster hashing burns through the calendar days on the way up and does not more than offset the death march that occurs on the calendar when trying to get to the next adjustment when hashing is below the difficulty level.

So it isn't just a question of will the difficulty be higher, but will it be volatile from one adjustment period to the next (on net, pushing the date further back), or will it be an even steady increase along the way ( pulling the date to be earlier ).

There are 24 specific 1diceXXX vanity addresses that SatoshiDice generated for their service.

Anyone can create their own 1diceXXX address as well, but that doesn't have any impact on the statistics for those 24.

There is one attack method I'm aware off ... send wagers that are too low (below the minimum) or too high (exceed the maximum) and thus the site sends a refund by returning the payment (and pays the transaction fee, mind you).  The service has ways to deal with that if it becomes a problem (deduct the fee before sending the refund, for example).

The other problem is the dust-like wagers.  The minimums are small enough that the site loses money on the smallest wagers due to transaction fees for the return payment.  That too can be adjusted should it become a problem.

But any transfer within the accepted range is a wager, and thus gets played and the return transaction created.   I can''t think of anything further that this third party could do (or why) to mess with the site.   (well, the Satoshi Dice site does describe other attack vectors, but they are precise and require double spending using Finney attack or other methods.)

The #bitcoin-otc Web of Trust (WoT) is an an irc-based web of trust network.   You'll need to install GPG to use it:

Installation:
 - http://wiki.bitcoin-otc.com/wiki/GPG_authentication#Third-party_guides

Once you've registered, others with whom you've traded can rate you:
 - http://bitcoin-otc.com/viewratings.php

Also, once registered you can place orders in the #bitcoin-otc marketplace:
 - http://bitcoin-otc.com/vieworderbook.php

You don't even need to be registered to chat with other -otc users in the foyer:
 - http://webchat.freenode.net/?channels=#bitcoin-otc-foyer

That was a joke, by the way.  [Update: Oh, and quoted exactly as it existed in the OP.]  Though I do make trades through #bitcoin-otc where I'm using PayPal to buy or sell bitcoins or MTGUSD.   The -otc Web of Trust (WoT) helps signficantly, for both sides.

Not connected to the network.

There actually are varying degrees of this though even.   You could have a desktop Windows system with the network cable unplugged and no wif-fi and try to call that airgapped, but it isn't.  Because if that system was compromised by a keystroke capture or malware that read the wallet.dat file as then that malware could transmit when the network connectivity is eventually restored.

So the more secure air gapped device doesn't have connectivity and won't.  Since you don't want to have to have around an extra PC or other device just for Bitcoin, a less-capable, specialized system like this wallet printer idea might be more useful.

 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_gap_(networking)

Why don't you mind you're own fuckin' business.