I was under the impression your latest estimates for BTC top to be < 500K? I thought I was following your logic, but this seems to suggest another order of mag. ....Oh I now understand. You expect the bubble top to be another order higher and then crash back to 300K. Correct?
In principle, yes. Although if fiat is totally obliterated, also the "long term fair value" of bitcoin may be higher than $300k. |
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Bitcoin will continue to be adopted exponentially more every year. Now it has about 350,000 users (or max 1 million if microholdings count). Perhaps next year this is 10 million, which is still <0.5% of world's adult population.
Mainstream maybe 2015 if this very rapid adoption speed persists.
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Bitcoin's real value is minimum $300,000 dollars, and by the time it hits it, it may be more because it is hard to buy anything with dollars anymore.
The time in between we'll just have to wait.
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I wonder if 2014 will be the year that we start to see Chinese exporters demanding bitcoins instead of dollars?
Every other country except China or Russia would be invaded for such bla$phemy... ...we live the most interesting of times  |
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Bitcoin value doubled in 3 months
19 times in a row
It is a nonsense. a) 2^19 = 524 288 b) $266 / 524 288 = $ 0,000507354736328125 19*3 = 57 months. 57 months ago was January 2009. $400 / 2^19 = $0.001 which was the electricity cost to mine them back then. |
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Euro is worth more than the dollar. I see this party taking place when BTC hits $1,000, and taking place in Germany, the birthplace of the Euro, as a statement that says, "Hey you! That other world reserve currency! You're next!  " What would be sweeter than hitting m BTC parity with ALL the fiat sh-t of this world during the 6-8 week wait time!  |
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A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.
This is (likely) true concerning adoption. Price, however, will much more likely go exponentially higher, then parabolically even higher, and then crash. And that top value will never be reached anymore, it is a true bubble. My present estimate is that you can buy dozens of luxury apartments with 1 bitcoin at the top. |
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USD |
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took more losses and bought some more back! My last sale was at 375. My next sell is for 400. thats the best way to do it, sell little bits slowly as its rising. Sell all as soon as possible. It will recover for a time, but each bottom is deeper that the previous one. |
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My gods, I thought there'd be at least some resistance
We experienced the same thing in March when we soared past $50. Everybody bought so quickly that coins ran out temporarily. Perhaps it is best to wait patiently until it crashes from $2000 and then buy at $500 or so when the volume is high. (I mean for those who want to buy in big) |
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The one thing this rally is missing is some new Bitcoin songs...
We are so early phase, but have to admit that this week has been rather brisk action. Just don't forget that a normal 20-25% flashcrash from these levels is almost $100 |
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Perhaps about 700-800, then a larger relapse, but the high will be surpassed ever quicker.
20 months to surpass $32,
7 months to beat $266,
perhaps 2-3 months to go over the next record, and $1000, $2000 and beyond.
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Good that law enforcement does their job efficiently.(Utterly lamentable that substances are outlawed, creating an oppressed situation for mankind, leading to victimless crimes and criminals, more law enforcement and more oppression)
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I have lost a good deal of my net worth these past few weeks due to these market movements. Deeply concerned - will USD continue to drop? I am sad to say USD represents a large minority of my portfolio.
Perhaps USD money masters should take some corrective action.. If this kind of drop continues, nobody can soon trust fiat to keep its value!! |
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going pretty parabolic here.   I think a weekend dip is on the cards. Not that it mattered much.. I like the market as long as every week is green, and this one will certainly be even after a dip. |
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man, we truly are some conservative bunch of people when it comes to price prediction  Or investment. Last year this time I had about 10% of grand total net wealth in bitcoin. |
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The real joke is inside the article: why the U.S. dollar has intrinsic value. ... The U.S. Dollar has intrinsic value because the U.S. government ... says it has intrinsic value.
And remember - bitcoin is the definition of fiat. (This much is funny, but that war=peace thing I don't like...) |
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I'm all for Bangkok, an alternative party for those who survive the German one would be great, maybe ask goat to set this up, if so I'm definitely  in. I would actually also support Bangkok for this historical party. It has some cool venues. I have a video of my daughter table-dancing gangnam style on a river cruise there last year.. (For privacy reasons not shown here.) |
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Bitcoin value doubled in 3 months
19 times in a row
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a real bubble would be one where the price goes beyond the expect value of bitcoin if bitcoin was 3% of the world  Yeah, quite certainly there will be a bubble in bitcoin, and then we are talking about a serious bubble where million satoshis is called a millionaire and similar crazy stuff. Remember, long term, not much above $300k is realistic |
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