rpietila (OP)
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November 06, 2013, 07:48:01 AM |
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dree12 has compiled the data from Mt.Gox (6/2013-> Stamp) with greater precision: "2010-08","0.0647499670783823" "2010-09","0.061954020274147086" "2010-10","0.10582991127505428" "2010-11","0.27056745743101035" "2010-12","0.24010984584593584" "2011-01","0.38858180917534374" "2011-02","0.8960578304157628" "2011-03","0.8507913320085179" "2011-04","1.502187236294624" "2011-05","6.384160766440483" "2011-06","18.548271754213044" "2011-07","14.1037341177656" "2011-08","9.752957091428916" "2011-09","5.759628530472161" "2011-10","3.301818830471977" "2011-11","2.59770303849321" "2011-12","3.508841773813272" "2012-01","6.106948530818074" "2012-02","5.0629012809481555" "2012-03","4.88026245169567" "2012-04","4.979702748141324" "2012-05","5.062788532597013" "2012-06","6.026649772612354" "2012-07","8.043786615126523" "2012-08","10.87919315075586" "2012-09","11.465951649610172" "2012-10","11.578438689611142" "2012-11","11.505423856163247" "2012-12","13.329754439355359" "2013-01","16.30940895076361" "2013-02","25.933876759727013" "2013-03","58.144059684555" "2013-04","115.09268141788563" "2013-05","112.81303150360635" "2013-06","108.3900675602325" "2013-07","83.80252582024497" "2013-08","105.79276538949902" "2013-09","124.32868197086977" "2013-10","156.4950743054255"
When I have the opportunity, I will check if this should replace the earlier data, and recalculate if needed. Since many want the historical trend to have predictive value, I will try to see if it could have some. My method will likely be based on observing the changes in slope, and it will prompt selling if we are clearly above the trend and buying in every other case.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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molecular
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November 06, 2013, 07:56:45 AM |
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funny fact: In June of 2010, one Bitcoin was worth $0.004 : Now one dollar is worth 0.004 Bitcoin
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PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0 3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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kdrop22
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 08, 2013, 05:33:09 PM |
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Barnacle_Ed
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November 08, 2013, 06:27:20 PM |
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To quote the fine print from any major stockbroker, "past performance is no guarantee of future results". As much as I'd personally like to see a constant linear growth in the price of BTC, I highly doubt the continued accuracy of this model...
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kdrop22
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November 08, 2013, 08:00:47 PM |
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Quote from: kdrop22 on Today at 05:33:09 PM Interesting chart from Reddit https://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.pngTo quote the fine print from any major stockbroker, "past performance is no guarantee of future results". As much as I'd personally like to see a constant linear growth in the price of BTC, I highly doubt the continued accuracy of this model... *************** I agree, there is no guarantee of exponential growth in the future. As the market grows bigger and bigger, the growth patter will move from exponential to linear and so on....
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SlipperySlope
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November 09, 2013, 12:01:58 AM Last edit: November 12, 2013, 06:08:35 PM by SlipperySlope |
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I believe that the adoption of bitcoin as a technological innovation will follow a logistic function. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function ... Historically, when new products are introduced there is an intense amount of research and development which leads to dramatic improvements in quality and reductions in cost. This leads to a period of rapid industry growth. Some of the more famous examples are: railroads, incandescent light bulbs, electrification, the Ford Model T, air travel and computers. Eventually, dramatic improvement and cost reduction opportunities are exhausted, the product or process are in widespread use with few remaining potential new customers, and markets become saturated. Accordingly logistic functions have this relevant property ... The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as saturation begins, the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F8%2F88%2FLogistic-curve.svg&t=665&c=CzleL-iMQruEvA) The X-axis is relative time and the Y-axis is percent adoption. We should observe linear bitcoin growth when it reaches 50% of adoption. A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.
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kdrop22
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 09, 2013, 03:32:02 AM |
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I believe that the adoption of bitcoin as a technological innovation will follow a logistic function. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function ... Historically, when new products are introduced there is an intense amount of research and development which leads to dramatic improvements in quality and reductions in cost. This leads to a period of rapid industry growth. Some of the more famous examples are: railroads, incandescent light bulbs, electrification, the Ford Model T, air travel and computers. Eventually, dramatic improvement and cost reduction opportunities are exhausted, the product or process are in widespread use with few remaining potential new customers, and markets become saturated. Accordingly logistic functions have this relevant property ... The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as saturation begins, the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F8%2F88%2FLogistic-curve.svg&t=665&c=CzleL-iMQruEvA) The X-axis is relative time and the Y-axis is percent adoption. We should observe linear bitcoin growth when it reaches 50% of adoption. Presently, we are far, far away from 50% adoption. A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy. Nice chart and analysis
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rpietila (OP)
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November 09, 2013, 12:05:32 PM |
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A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.
This is (likely) true concerning adoption. Price, however, will much more likely go exponentially higher, then parabolically even higher, and then crash. And that top value will never be reached anymore, it is a true bubble. My present estimate is that you can buy dozens of luxury apartments with 1 bitcoin at the top.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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NewLiberty
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November 09, 2013, 12:21:07 PM |
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A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.
More appropriately it will grow or shrink with the change in the underlying internet economy (which proportionately is growing MUCH faster than the rest). Bitcoin's primary sweetspot, where it remains unchallenged and supreme, is for the internet transaction. For the worlds beyond the internet, it is mostly uncharted territory yet. Bitcoin needs proxies there, debit cards, gyft cards, fiat gateways, bitpay, coinbase, tangible currency (coin), and the rest.
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bitrider
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November 09, 2013, 03:23:42 PM |
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A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.
This is (likely) true concerning adoption. Price, however, will much more likely go exponentially higher, then parabolically even higher, and then crash. And that top value will never be reached anymore, it is a true bubble. My present estimate is that you can buy dozens of luxury apartments with 1 bitcoin at the top. I was under the impression your latest estimates for BTC top to be < 500K? I thought I was following your logic, but this seems to suggest another order of mag. ....Oh I now understand. You expect the bubble top to be another order higher and then crash back to 300K. Correct?
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rpietila (OP)
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November 09, 2013, 07:35:18 PM |
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I was under the impression your latest estimates for BTC top to be < 500K? I thought I was following your logic, but this seems to suggest another order of mag. ....Oh I now understand. You expect the bubble top to be another order higher and then crash back to 300K. Correct?
In principle, yes. Although if fiat is totally obliterated, also the "long term fair value" of bitcoin may be higher than $300k.
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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bitrider
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November 09, 2013, 09:23:24 PM |
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I was under the impression your latest estimates for BTC top to be < 500K? I thought I was following your logic, but this seems to suggest another order of mag. ....Oh I now understand. You expect the bubble top to be another order higher and then crash back to 300K. Correct?
In principle, yes. Although if fiat is totally obliterated, also the "long term fair value" of bitcoin may be higher than $300k. Right.
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molecular
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November 09, 2013, 09:50:52 PM |
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A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.
This is (likely) true concerning adoption. Price, however, will much more likely go exponentially higher, then parabolically even higher, and then crash. And that top value will never be reached anymore, it is a true bubble. My present estimate is that you can buy dozens of luxury apartments with 1 bitcoin at the top. And at the subsequent bottom? 1 luxury apartment less?
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PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0 3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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SlipperySlope
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November 11, 2013, 03:14:53 PM Last edit: November 12, 2013, 03:28:45 PM by SlipperySlope |
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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTncThis spreadsheet is my attempt to fit a logistic function to the bitcoin price history and thus predict its future. See Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_functionBecause the initial phase of the logistic curve is exponential, I found that a wide variety of maximum bitcoin prices could reasonably match the price history. What is interesting is that the resulting family of curves revealed that the very rapid growth of bitcoin prices will not last beyond a few more years.I configured the calculations to accept a guess as to what the maximum bitcoin price in $US will be. I tried four values from $40000 to $5000000. For each maximum bitcoin price, I manually adjusted the starting X value and adoption period so that the logistic curve passed through the July 7 2010 price and also passed through the November 11, 2013 price. The resulting adoption periods range from 10.3 years for the $40000 max price to 13.6 years for the $5000000 max price. The logistic function becomes linear at the adoption halfway point and then becomes exponentially decreasing. In the case of a $1000000 bitcoin price, the exponential growth stops in 2017. Note that the logistic function is fit to the price curve and models the behavior of speculators, not the underlying bitcoin economy - which I suppose may take 20-30 years to become fully adopted, e.g. replace precious metals and fiat currencies. Likewise, even after full adoption, bitcoin prices will continue to grow as the underlying bitcoin economy grows. Here is the logistic price curve supposing that bitcoin reaches a maximum price of $1000000. The Y axis is the Log 10 of the price. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fl1hNC9K.png&t=665&c=G3ElM6RBNJ9jOg)
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kdrop22
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November 11, 2013, 04:59:21 PM |
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Great job, thanks for the charts. Would it be possible to post something with more conservative numbers, perhaps a max of 40,000.
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SlipperySlope
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
November 11, 2013, 05:43:54 PM |
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Here is my hand-fit logistic function chart assuming a maximum bitcoin price of $40000. The Y axis is the Log10 of the price. Observe that according to this model the price continues to increase exponentially through 2015. ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJmwHd7M.png&t=665&c=Q73ELIBR-PPx2Q)
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Wekkel
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yes
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November 11, 2013, 06:29:53 PM |
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What program do you use for those graphs?
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rpietila (OP)
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November 11, 2013, 09:09:55 PM |
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Nice graphs, thank you. But is there a reason you selected Mt.Gox opening as the starting point and reject the notion that bitcoin was trading OTC for 1.5 years at an essentially flat rate?
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HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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