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6521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 20, 2015, 01:00:25 AM
How can we have a meaningful discussion if you pigeonhole to the irrelevant factors only.

This is not about energy efficiency. You argued very hard that is it about efficiency (energy or otherwise).

Simple, someone asked about efficiency, and whether cheap chips in a water heater, toaster, etc. can compete with cutting edge mining chips. I answered. The answer is yes.

That may be irrelevant to you, but it was relevant to the person who asked.

6522  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 20, 2015, 12:42:29 AM
Also I have never seen anyone in the Philippines use a heating device for anything but cooking.

Electric water heating has a significant market share world wide, roughly 40%.

Afaik, electric heating of anything is incredibly inefficient compared to natural gas or propane. Thus this isn't making the world more energy efficient. This is for people who don't care about efficiency because they can afford the safey and lack of hassles of not using gas.

That's an strange way of measuring efficiency (yes I know you said "energy efficiency", I just consider that measurement somewhat irrelevant). If it has better safety and fewer hassles, that increases efficiency.

The fact is, for whatever reasons, 40% of the water heater market buys electric. Unless that changes, adding mining chips to that is essentially free mining.

Free for whom? Those who will spend outrageous amount to heat with electricity are receiving an insignificant amount of gain. You can give me 10 free pennies per month and I don't have the time to pick them up off the ground. They are not free for me to pick up.

Free in that of 100 customers in the world, 60 won't buy an electric heater. Fine. 40 will. If we divide those into 20 with miner chip (or even quite a few chips) and 20 without, both sets pay the same amount of electricity for the same amount of hot water. One mines Bitcoin, the other does not. Whether you think the 20 mining Bitcoin with no added electricity cost is a good or bad thing is likely going to depend on your opinion of Bitcoin, fair enough. But the fact of mining itself has no operational cost here, and I'm guessing that the chip cost can also be very, very low.

Did you crop my post or was I still editing it when you replied? I don't think you responded to my point at all.

I did not ask "free in that". I asked "free for whom?". Who gets something free that they even notice?

The network does. Difficulty goes up. Security goes up. Profitability goes down. Big farms fade away. Maybe. Who gets those Bitcoins does't even matter much. Burn them for all I care.

Of course 21's chips will probably just mine on a pool, which might make things worse than ever. I don't claim this is some kind of cryptonirvana. My comments were focused on the question of efficiency.

The rest of your post was most about whether this is a good thing. I don't know. I have nothing to say about that at this point.
6523  Other / Meta / Re: Petition for Monero to have its own board, so we don't bother the altcoins. on: May 20, 2015, 12:33:13 AM

I'm going to try to explain this like you're five. I don't don't if it will work. You might not be quite at that mental level yet.

Show the bitcoin blockchain to the Average Joe, and he doesn't see a damn thing, just a bunch of letters and numbers. Better yet, show the actual bytes, not how it is interpreted on a block explorer. Understanding, interpreting, and verifying that blockchain requires an understanding of the protocol, and being able to do things like verify secp256k1 signatures and sha256 hashes (two bits of complex cryptographic math) in order to tell that the blocks are valid, the transactions are valid, and the outputs (coins) you receive are legitimate.

Monero is exactly the same damn thing. If you understand the protocol, and how to verify CryptoNight hashes and CryptoNote ring signatures (two more bits of complex cryptographic math) you can tell the blocks are valid, the transactions are valid, and the outputs (coins) you receive are legitimate.

It is a different protocol, with different cryptographic math, but from the point of view of verifying the chain, exactly the same.

You also don't know what fungibility even means as a definition. It means interchangeable. If the coins are all mathematically verifiable (and they are), and can't be attached to some unique and distinctive history (which the can't), then it is fungible. Whatever other gibberish you want to throw around in an ongoing months- (years- ?) long display of your own ignorance does not mean fungible, if it means anything at all.
6524  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 20, 2015, 12:14:45 AM
Also I have never seen anyone in the Philippines use a heating device for anything but cooking.

Electric water heating has a significant market share world wide, roughly 40%.

Afaik, electric heating of anything is incredibly inefficient compared to natural gas or propane. Thus this isn't making the world more energy efficient. This is for people who don't care about efficiency because they can afford the safey and lack of hassles of not using gas.

That's an strange way of measuring efficiency (yes I know you said "energy efficiency", I just consider that measurement somewhat irrelevant). If it has better safety and fewer hassles, that increases efficiency.

The fact is, for whatever reasons, 40% of the water heater market buys electric. Unless that changes, adding mining chips to that is essentially free mining.

Free for whom? Those who will spend outrageous amount to heat with electricity are receiving an insignificant amount of gain. You can give me 10 free pennies per month and I don't have the time to pick them up off the ground. They are not free for me to pick up.

Free in that of 100 customers in the world, 60 won't buy an electric heater. Fine. 40 will. If we divide those into 20 with miner chip (or even quite a few chips) and 20 without, both sets pay the same amount of electricity for the same amount of hot water. One mines Bitcoin, the other does not. Whether you think the 20 mining Bitcoin with no added electricity cost is a good or bad thing is likely going to depend on your opinion of Bitcoin, fair enough. But the fact of mining itself has no operational cost here, and I'm guessing that the chip cost can also be very, very low.
6525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 20, 2015, 12:12:07 AM
If they are only going to put these in personal driers, then I am not concerned. As you admit, a dated chip's market share declines over time and they are used only intermittently. That is such a low use activity it won't compete with full time mining for market share.

It might if there are enough of them. I don't really know how these numbers work out, considering for example electric water heaters, or every home having several of these chips in different devices (clothes dryer, hair dryer, dishwasher, portable heater, etc.)

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It is the putting of this into phones that alarms me. They are locking in the masses to one money choice (one hashing algorithm at least and we don't know what requirements governments can require these chips to have in the future).

Yes, that's a completely different approach and business model, as I said earlier. There is no free mining to be had on a phone. I'm frankly not too worried (incrementally) because phones are likely already the most thoroughly government controlled and compromised devices in existence.
6526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 20, 2015, 12:04:04 AM
Also I have never seen anyone in the Philippines use a heating device for anything but cooking.

Electric water heating has a significant market share world wide, roughly 40%.

Afaik, electric heating of anything is incredibly inefficient compared to natural gas or propane. Thus this isn't making the world more energy efficient. This is for people who don't care about efficiency because they can afford the safey and lack of hassles of not using gas.

That's an strange way of measuring efficiency (yes I know you said "energy efficiency", I just consider that measurement somewhat irrelevant). If it has better safety and fewer hassles, that increases efficiency.

The fact is, for whatever reasons, 40% of the water heater market buys electric. Unless that changes, adding mining chips to that is essentially free mining.
6527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 20, 2015, 12:02:42 AM
The chip has to pay back itself in time as it has a limited period of time that it has cutting edge performance.

Not really, no. If the effective efficiency is very close to 100% infinite (which it is), the chip continues to be viable far longer than dedicated mining chips do. It doesn't need cutting edge performance.

Also, we don't know the cost of the chips, but cheap chips can be very, very cheap (<$1). Part of 21's model is silicon IP that you can license to incorporate into an existing chip design (obviously it would be a new design, by existing I mean a chip that already does something else). In terms of production cost for some products that can be literally free (other than IP license fees), if there is extra space on a convenient die size. It will reduce yield but so what, you just ship those as non-mining chips. The ones that work are free.
6528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 11:58:51 PM
Also I have never seen anyone in the Philippines use a heating device for anything but cooking.

Electric water heating has a significant market share world wide, roughly 40%. Obviously there are other such devices, and markets vary. I guess the Philippines won't be hotbed of Bitcoin mining (that makes logical sense given the waste heat issue, conceivably PV might change that at some point).


6529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 11:46:32 PM
There is nowhere else for the heat to go.

Aren't you forgetting that the efficiency of a thermodynamic process is proportional the ratio of the differences in temperature and the ambient. If the Bitcoin mining chip is not as hot as the coils, then it will not be as efficient as the coils were. Also for example a hair dyer needs all the heat transfered within a short period of time, and if the heat transfer is slow not all of the heat may be extracted to the hair and instead wasted to the ambient. So somewhat less than free mining.

No. Work out the actual transfer equations if you like, but it ends up being an equivalence. Energy in = heat out. Or the device self destructs.

I am speaking about the efficiency of transfer on the time domain.

How is it that my hair dyer dries my hair after i turn it off but my mining chip is still hot? You've got have a large heat sink in order to move the heat efficiently in time.

Device doesn't self-destruct if the duty cycle is not greater than what the heat transfer sink can deliver.

Well work out the numbers if you like. The amount of energy stored in the mining chip will be negligible due to its small mass. Or you can use other tricks, like run the chip for a shorter period of time than the typical hair drying cycle (so the chip is usually idle and being cooled before the hair drier is turned off).

The heating chip will be kept relatively cool because first of all it is small and has a low mass, and second of all because it is being cooled by room air at the intake. The latter I can tell you from experience working with air cooled chips. A hair dryer has plenty of airflow to keep even a high power chip cool via air cooling. Worst case you downgrade the chip power if necessary to keep it cool (unlikely), so you get less output. Still (effectively) 100% efficiency, just less output, but that's not the play here.

These are engineering problems and I'm quite certain it won't be hard to dominate dedicated miners in terms of efficiency here. I'm far less confident in 21's investors getting a positive return on their investment, but that's a different story.

Quote
Heat sinks are often the most expensive part of the entire design. And there is a diminishing return. The heat of a mining chip is I believe very concentrated into a few mm2 versus coils which cheaply spread out their heat over a large surface area of air flow.

Just downgrade the chip power. You can air cool it easily without any kind of exotic heat sink, or maybe none at all.

6530  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 19, 2015, 11:40:45 PM
Yes, please list and use and spread the word. Centralized exchanges, meh. Always been trouble.

Nothing against moneroclub - it's great to have - but, it's not exactly decentralized.

The exchange is. Moneroclub is just a method of meeting people. Use another method if you like. Better yet, use both/many.
6531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 11:36:14 PM
There is nowhere else for the heat to go.

Aren't you forgetting that the efficiency of a thermodynamic process is proportional the ratio of the differences in temperature and the ambient. If the Bitcoin mining chip is not as hot as the coils, then it will not be as efficient as the coils were. Also for example a hair dyer needs all the heat transfered within a short period of time, and if the heat transfer is slow not all of the heat may be extracted to the hair and instead wasted to the ambient. So somewhat less than free mining.

No. Work out the actual transfer equations if you like, but it ends up being an equivalence. Energy in = heat out. Or the device self destructs. Certainly true for a room heater. True in practice for a hair dryer, water heater, etc. I'm not so sure about a toaster. That may be a bad application for it.
 
6532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 11:34:52 PM
Ok, perhaps you can help me understand, as I am really stuck on this one. Is it possible for a toaster/phone + mining chip to be as/more efficient than the best ASIC's on the market ?

Absolutely yes. Phone, maybe not. That's more of monetization play, and a long shot on creating a distribution vehicle for micro-BTC that could be used for micro-payments.

But for any device that produces heat (toaster, portable heater, hair dryer, clothes dryer, towel warmer, dishwasher dry cycle, etc.), the efficiency of mining is infinite.


So, you are saying that any device that has an inbuilt fan/other heat transfer mechanism, and is ordinarily used for heating/drying purposes can utilise the heat created by the mining chip for its usual purpose, as opposed to blowing it out of the building in a mining farm (smart), and that there is a synergy here. I see that. To a point.

No not to a point. Very nearly completely. The electricity at that point is literally free, and the only concern wrt efficiency is the cost of the chips themselves. With extreme mass production that may also be driven down below the cost of dedicated mining chips, especially if the latter is more concerned with operational efficiency. Or even if not, the expectation is that the cost of electricity dominates the cost of chips.


6533  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: May 19, 2015, 11:26:58 PM
Left Polo. Seems shapeshift is my only option. Don't trust BTER. Bittrex is US based too so it's only a matter of time.
is there a local bitcoins website but for XMR?

https://www.moneroclub.com/offers/

Is a great site, but I'm not sure of the take up on there

Yes, please list and use and spread the word. Centralized exchanges, meh. Always been trouble.



6534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 11:21:57 PM
But for any device that producesrequires heat (toaster, portable heater, hair dryer, clothes dryer, towel warmer, dishwasher dry cycle, etc.), the efficiency of mining is infinitemitigated.

The efficiency isn't going to be perfect because the nature of the heat may not be fully fungible with the original source of the heat in such devices.

It certainly will for some of these devices. A portable room heater being one example. That is absolutely 100% efficiency. There is nowhere else for the heat to go. In most of the others the device can be designed in such a way that the efficiency approaches or reaches 100%. For example, in the case of a hair dryer you can put the mining chip at the air intake before the coils and reduce the power to the coils by the same amount. You get the same output as before. Clothes dryer, etc. is quite similar.

On the mobile/IoT side I think they are looking more at the distribution aspect and less at the efficiency of mining being significant.

EDIT: okay sure, there are RF emissions, and the deliberate power output for WiFi or mobile, but that is negligible compared to even 10 W of actual mining power. There is still no question this far exceeds the efficiency of dedicated mining.
6535  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: May 19, 2015, 11:17:16 PM
I tried five times to create a wallet, but in each case I got at least two out of 13 words being identical and in one case (out of 5) i got three identical words.
If it uses the dictionary and then randomizes, the chance of this happening is so miniscule as to be negligible.
In my opinion, it means that wallet creation does not work properly (at least at this moment).

In short, no.

1. The position of each word matters. The same word in a different position has a different value.

2. You're seeing the birthday problem (higher than expected likelihood of some match in the set), and no it does not affect security.

3. The last word doesn't count. It is a checksum.
6536  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 11:11:20 PM
Ok, perhaps you can help me understand, as I am really stuck on this one. Is it possible for a toaster/phone + mining chip to be as/more efficient than the best ASIC's on the market ?

Absolutely yes. Phone, maybe not. That's more of monetization play, and a long shot on creating a distribution vehicle for micro-BTC that could be used for micro-payments.

But for any device that produces heat (toaster, portable heater, hair dryer, clothes dryer, towel warmer, dishwasher dry cycle, etc.), the efficiency of mining is infinite.
6537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 10:10:58 PM
I may have forgotten the specific details of the unlinkability (been away from that for some months) but afair the IP address can be associated with a total payment amount and the output addresses. The unlinkability only creates a new address for each payee for each payment, but doesn't hide this new address. Thus on the next spend of the change, the input to the ring it likely known. It is these sort of combinatorial attacks (other variations) that I think might breakdown Monero's anonymity. Smooth please do correct me if my recollection has failed me.

You clearly smarter than me but the reason I do not worry is because I2p integration will come to Monero.

I am not sure if I am correct on the IP correlation, but I surely don't trust Tor due to Sybil attack on relays, timing analysis, etc. I don't know if I2P has defeated those issues. I doubt it but everytime I looked for detailed design docs in the past I didn't readily find the information I needed to formulate an opinion.

i2p is somewhat better because of what they call garlic routing where multiple separate messages are deliberately combined to frustrate timing/traffic attacks. I don't know of a careful analysis of how effective that is, but at least they try.

6538  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 10:08:15 PM
It seems reasonable, and afair TPTB have cracked down on exchanges for game currencies because they do realize this threat.

Is Monero ready to resist such crackdowns? Does it have decentralized exchanges? Can the authorities not track down IP addresses and make examples to discourage others from subverting a ban?

Might work.

My idea is an area that is more targeted to the market of those who need anonymity and thus might be more willing to fight. Not sure if game players want to pick an unnecessary fight with the government.

I like your posts but IPs is one of the least worries for privacy in a coin, the "worst" they could ascertain is that you made a transaction to... somewhere, a Monero crackdown would only Straisant effect it, they can't even block torrents, how would a ban take place? They can't ban it everywhere in the world at same time.

I may have forgotten the specific details of the unlinkability (been away from that for some months) but afair the IP address can be associated with a total payment amount and the output addresses. The unlinkability only creates a new address for each payee for each payment, but doesn't hide this new address. Thus on the next spend of the change, the input to the ring it likely known. It is these sort of combinatorial attacks (other variations) that I think might breakdown Monero's anonymity. Smooth please do correct me if my recollection has failed me.

It does hide every new address (in the sense that it is just a random number), and the change is blinded just like any other payee. You can't tell by monitoring at the network level which outputs are change and which are not. You also can't tell by monitoring at the network level which outputs are being spent, so you can't ever be sure that change is being spent.

Wallets do have to be careful how they select coins to avoid skewing probabilities. The best is probably to spend a change output by itself without combining with other outputs (this could be spent back to yourself, but at that point it no longer can be identified as change). It's probably still okay to spend it with other outputs of yours that don't share a near ancestor.

Even so, the worst case is a probabilistic correlation that is still denyable, and which erodes away after multiple transactions. At the IP level it is definitely true that monitoring Monero traffic reveals far, far less useful information than monitoring Bitcoin traffic.

I have no idea what Odalv is talking about, he makes these claims about simultaneous equations but he seems not to understand the math at all. He previously claimed you could steal coins that way, but I guess he's given up on that nonsense now and moved on to some other likely nonsense.
6539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 09:15:39 PM
Monero has lost ~90% of it's value vs. BTC since last September

Uh, no. You are misreading something.

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You can implement the exact same distributed and trustless mixing mechanisms in wallets that live on top of Bitcoin

No you can't. It is totally different cryptography at the transaction level, and would require at least a soft fork, but that is very messy and far more complex than any existing or proposed soft forks, meaning it has essentially zero chance to happen in practice. It could and probably will happen on a side chain, but that raises various other issues.

There are other differences like an actual deployed (and somewhat stress tested) mechanism for managing the blocksize without a hard limit.

6540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 19, 2015, 09:07:32 PM
it would not be an altcoin at all

Well, there's a pretty decent argument that coins that share little to no code with Bitcoin and break significantly with its design principles with Bitcoin aren't really "altcoins" at all in the original sense (which was more like Bitcoin forks). That doesn't make them good technologies or good investments, but they're at least different. That's a start.


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