Oh no! Bubblepop! 228 and tanking.
In my understanding, it will not go lower than 212.5 (Bitstamp). 2nd Fib. |
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I am waiting for a correction from 2 weeks with monies on the exchange but this b*tch just goes up and upper.
Could someone please dump a load and crash the price for a minute?
Remember - no weekly negatives between $13 and $266. No weekly negatives after $130  Profit. |
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My question is, why don't we see new whales coming up yet? Or do we have to be more patient?
I think they will show up, but i'm curious why it takes them so long.
This is just too early. Comparable to January (the last time when we had 4 positive weeks in a row). Smart whales have bought already, impatient whales help us to cross $1000 and $2000. |
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Depends on the timeframe. If I would invest for anything longer than 3 weeks, or for something between 24-96 hours, I would definitely buy. In all other cases I would just buy.
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Today a quiet day. Bitcoin closed 4th consecutive "green" week yesterday. Last time this happened in January. I have the feeling based on multiple indicators that we have just started a megamove. I even bought back 170,000m BTC which I had previously sold. |
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I didn't see much whale buys during this rally btw, this was different in april if i remember right. Or am i wrong?
Whales are selling slowly and constantly putting medium walls (1k-3k) on bitstamp, little fish are buying the current hype and may bleed later on.. As for Gox its an abandoned house. I propose a better terminology for grouping the different kind of market actors. Or please tell me, what are the behavioral characteristics of the whales, as opposed to smaller fish? As far as I know, big holders don't sell. |
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In the meantime, BTCChina broke it's pre-correction high of 1334 CNY.
I just missed 1337! 1337 is unmissable |
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German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?
Holy crap, 165€  Still way behind my infamous record of 240€  (Yes, I had several people buying at that price) Sorry to disapoint but you come a poor second. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169881.0Yes Satoshi's sold for £50 (80 USD) each Well I came first if the qualification is BTC50 minimum per day. |
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Yeah, I kind of agree with the OP that this poll is less of an issue. At least for me it is. Also people might click bullish to manipulate others or they might click bearish cause they are paranoid, so I doubt anybody will get robbed at gun point just for saying a high percentage. If you are known to have a high net worth and people might rob you at gun point, you will have to take security measures anyway.
I am among the most vocal bitcoin millionaires here, and have only five times in my life had issues with security. One was a confirmed government operation (they came into my house with ID's and took away everything). Then there was a minor incident where hotel staff stole goods with low value, although bitcoins were present, and three times of breaking into my office, since everyone knows it is full of gold, silver and bitcoins. But there are also night-vision cameras, alarms etc. Nothing dangerous.This gunpoint thing is so outdated in most of the world. Fantasy. The only entity that has ever approached me with guns is the govt, and there is not much you can do about it. If anyone thinks it is smart to try to rob bitcoin people, why is that they do not buy bitcoins themselves? The rate of appreciation has been on average 1140% per year. Crime is hard work. I have by and large quit my honest job because of bitcoin appreciation already. I suggest criminals do the same. |
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Plus the higher we go, the more potential we have for early early adopters to start profit taking. Many missed out on the 2 hour window on April 10th and will want to make sure they get in on this.
Who are the early adopters? What makes you think they are looking for a selling opportunity? Perhaps me and my friends are not early adopters but second class people, but I've heard from none of us that $1000 would prompt much selling. Perhaps the really really early adopters such as sirius (second only to Satoshi) have already sold, like he sold in 2011 to buy an apartment. The largest holders who both came in early and have not sold so far, are maybe not inclined to sell now any more than at any previous intermediate top. => Only nonbelievers sell, and there are very few nonbelievers in the early adopters, who still have coins. The new entrants of 2013 may sell after a quick 5- or 10-bagger, but then they would have already sold after a 100%, 50% or even 20%. I actually believe that the bubble intermediate top may form quite similarly as last time. When all "profit takers" have sold, then it really takes off. We are not even close to that yet. There will be much grinding in the mundane levels below $500, and then a stellar overshoot. |
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German Bitcoin.de 165€ (it's not just one trade) and Gox 162.5€... Any new news from Germany perhaps?
Holy crap, 165€ Still way behind my infamous record of 240€ (Yes, I had several people buying at that price) |
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I think April 2014 is realistic
"shame" that it is already taken |
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Even very bullish people won't mortgage/sell their houses to invest to BTC. Extremely bullish people might not buy a house even if they can afford it, because they understand the importance of international mobility. Also they might understand enough about economics to realize that house prices are still at unsustainably high levels, and understand enough about finance to realize that houses are durable consumer goods, not assets. +2. Both points are spot on. I was bullish enough with silver and bearish on RE so that I never bought a house during that era. Also mobility is important. Kristoffer Koch is a good example - buying BTC5000 at essentially nothing, and then selling 20% of it to buy an apartment. |
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For the first time in btc-history Mt.Gox lost his 30day volume leadership.  This IS historic! Poor Karpeles  |
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@rpietila:
This is an interesting thread, and I think you've done a great job with it. I have been wondering about the effect that 'strong hands' have on the price, and thought that maybe some of the results here could be used to try to make an estimation.
Many people here on the forums probably follow the 'buy and hold' strategy, at least to some extent. I have some BTC in cold storage which I'll be holding 'for the longest time', and I trade with the rest to try to increase my holdings (as well as to make a bit of extra spending money). This removes coins from circulation, leaving less BTC to be chased by the same money.
I wonder therefore, what the total amount of BTC actually in circulation might be? Could we estimate how many BTC are in cold storage, and unlikely to be sold in a panic when price drops X% over the weekend?
My gut feeling is that most of the bitcoins are in strong hands (and the largest holders are definitely strong, otherwise they would not be large). But that is just a gut feeling, molecular is greatly appreciated to perform any kind of analysis on that. Interesting, and mildly disturbing facts there...
What do you find problematic? |
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Its already too late bro, the train has left the station.
Choo choo! (Im aboard the train, vip seats in the front)
The rule is, if you're going to shamelessly brag like a douche, you have to also shamelessly announce exactly how many coins you have. What constitutes VIP seats? How many coins? I wanna see where on the train I sit....  My only brag was that I am sitting in the VIP area of a fictitious train heading for the moon. The rules for a VIP seat (you have to atleast hit one of the criteria) are: - Have 75% or more of your net worth in BTC* - Registration date before May 30th 2011 MPOE-PR has volunteered as our hostess.  * Does not apply if your net worth is less than $100,000. Fucking peasant..Yeah, and if your net worth is more than about $0.5M and the above conditions are met, you can also register yourself to the Bitcoin TOP-500 list. |
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buy, forget, hold few years. Profit.
+1. 64% of the weeks are actually positive for bitcoin, only 36% have been negative. |
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