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661  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price has flatlined at $120 on: May 23, 2013, 12:51:15 PM
I introduce Bitcoin to folks; I get reactions.  Last night the reaction was, "If I can't get points using it then I'm not interested."  Once triggered there was no talking to the guy.  Ignore and move on?
662  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Self-Directed IRA investing in Bitcoin on: May 22, 2013, 06:14:14 PM
US Trust indicates that one must have $3,000,000 in order to open a trust account with them that *might* be able to get us into Bitcoin.  So, we keep looking.

My Merrill Lynch rep indicates he is aware of Bitcoin but checked and reports Merrill Lynch is not doing anything at all with it yet.  What's needed is the IRS position; is it an investment just like foreign currencies *or* is it a collectable?
663  Economy / Speculation / Re: Price has flatlined at $120 on: May 22, 2013, 03:44:42 AM
Have you ever given a tip to someone?  I take a glass blowing class; I tip my instructor.  I tipped with 200 mBTC.

Have you ever given a monetary gift to someone?  My nephew turned 21 the other day; I gave him a monetary gift for his birthday.  The gift I gave him was 200 mBTC.

Every Bitcoin proponent ought to give tips and gifts of BTCs.

When more people bring more money into Bitcoin then the exchange rate will rise; simple supply and demand.
664  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 21, 2013, 09:22:11 PM
Remember when a Gavin was 5430; man those were the good old days.
665  Economy / Speculation / Re: $1,000,000 for a Bitcoin? on: May 21, 2013, 04:41:48 PM
For the record (I've nullified the contest); e^log(sqrt(sqrt(e^pi)^sqrt(pi^e)^sqrt(e)^sqrt(pi)))/3 -- my guess is I could have given a thousand digits and it would not have been possible to predict the expression.  In my opinion, predicting if/when the exchange rate will hit $1,000,000 is much harder.
666  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: WantToBuy - 30 BTC - on: May 21, 2013, 02:46:57 AM
WTB 30 btc - Paying by MoneyGram,  / wire/transfer / multiple banks /- etc / PM me -

Hmm, why not do it the old fashioned way, e.g. Dwolla -> CampBX?

Or, you could do it via http://bitcoin-otc.com/vieworderbook.php.  I guess with that option perhaps it would be best not to clutter up the forum.
667  Economy / Currency exchange / Re: WantToBuy - 30 BTC - on: May 21, 2013, 02:44:38 AM
WTB 30 btc - Paying by MoneyGram,  / wire/transfer / multiple banks /- etc / PM me -

Er, denominated in US dollars at what rate of exchange?
668  Economy / Speculation / Re: $1,000,000 for a Bitcoin? on: May 20, 2013, 08:36:32 PM
One problem: humans hate to be cataloged or to be considered predictable, because that undermines their illusion of free will.

I was thinking you were going to say that.  Smiley
669  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Self-Directed IRA investing in Bitcoin on: May 20, 2013, 03:24:55 PM
US Trust indicates that one must have $3,000,000 in order to open a trust account with them that *might* be able to get us into Bitcoin.  So, we keep looking.
670  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Self-Directed IRA investing in Bitcoin on: May 20, 2013, 02:37:09 PM
The one trust company I've been researching self-directed IRAs through wants to wait until the IRS clarifies their position on Bitcoin as a collectable or not.

How does one pose a question to the IRS?

Besides researching through other trust companies, how does one go about creating a trust company?
671  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Self-Directed IRA investing in Bitcoin on: May 20, 2013, 02:35:55 PM
I am researching self-directed IRAs.  One trust company indicates the Bitcoins *must* be owned by them held for my benefit -- just like you can't have physical gold in a closet in your house in a self-directed IRA.  Their legal and IT departments are researching the viability and fees.  I have offered to host a virtual room to show them how to create a wallet and back it up, etc.  If/when it works out then I will report here.

The one trust company I've been researching self-directed IRAs through wants to wait until the IRS clarifies their position on Bitcoin as a collectable or not.

How does one pose a question to the IRS?
672  Economy / Speculation / Re: $1,000,000 for a Bitcoin? on: May 20, 2013, 12:18:35 AM
Human beings tend to be just terrible at predicting things like this.  The first step is to admit we really do not know then we can start guessing realizing they are just guesses.

I've written an expression down that represents a number between 0 and 1,000,000.  If you can guess it then I'll give you a prize.  I'll give you a hint; it isn't an integer.  Anyone that thinks they can predict the number is fooling themselves but it can be fun guessing and rationalizing the guess.  Also, note the prize is variable; if the exchange rate between today's Bitcoin and today's US dollar goes to $0 then you can have all of my Bitcoins leftover at the moment it dies.  If the rate does top $1,000,000 then the prize will be 1 BTC.

Your challenge is not applicable: market is governed by society, society is composed by humans, and human behavior is far from random.
In fact, it is quite predictable if you have the accurate variables and models.

Using your example: It is not about arbitrarily setting a number, but having a set of obscure and complex rules for the generation of this number between 0 and a million. If you give me enough time with this black box I will be able to approximate very closely and predict the next numbers.
Maybe not exact, but good enough.

That's how social sciences work, and the black box is our human mind.
We have enough empirical information about human behavior to estimate a possible outcome under certain variables.

Alright, but, it isn't just one human mind; it is billions of them.  In my experience human minds work differently enough that sometimes in a few words I can convey a concept and inspire rapid action vs. a strong negative reaction to the same concepts to the point of risking relationship or even life and limb.

So, I will give another hint; the most significant digit (MSD) is 9 narrowing the field down by a factor of 9 (the MSD couldn't have been 0).  There; all human minds operate similarly enough because they are constrained to the physics of the brain http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_brain.  My expression is very very far from random http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_randomness; it is in fact stunningly ordered as compared to something truly random.  No one has written a computer program attempting to predict the exchange rate, right?

Make no mistake; no one here is remotely close to estimating any possible outcome at all based on any variables.  We are strictly guessing for the fun of it.  Anyone that thinks they are predicting anything in this space is categorically delusional but that can be a delightful source of fun too.

Heck, the environment alone can wreck havoc with any and all predictions.  When the comet strikes and takes out the planet, unless we've escaped to safety elsewhere, the exchange rate won't matter.  If so then I will declare a push and not payout.
673  Economy / Speculation / Re: $1,000,000 for a Bitcoin? on: May 19, 2013, 05:04:37 PM
Human beings tend to be just terrible at predicting things like this.  The first step is to admit we really do not know then we can start guessing realizing they are just guesses.

I've written an expression down that represents a number between 0 and 1,000,000.  If you can guess it then I'll give you a prize.  I'll give you a hint; it isn't an integer.  Anyone that thinks they can predict the number is fooling themselves but it can be fun guessing and rationalizing the guess.  Also, note the prize is variable; if the exchange rate between today's Bitcoin and today's US dollar goes to $0 then you can have all of my Bitcoins leftover at the moment it dies.  If the rate does top $1,000,000 then the prize will be 1 BTC.
674  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 17, 2013, 09:19:21 PM
My son, PRab, and I were discussing this and he described a notion; the idea in this posting springs from that source; as dust ages eventually it should be reclaimable by a miner.  For example, 1 Satoshi might be claimable after 1 week of being idle, 10 at 2 weeks, 100 at 4 weeks and 1000 at 8 weeks.  Perhaps that is too aggressive but you get the idea -- just has to be tuned.  Anything greater than dust would have to be idle for a long enough time to be sure enough that it is never coming back into circulation.  Maybe there's a threshold above which idle Bitcoins are never reclaimable.
675  Economy / Currency exchange / CampBX suggested best practice on: May 17, 2013, 05:04:53 PM
At https://campbx.com/in/fundmgmt.php they say, "As a best practice, we recommend breaking a big deposit down in 2-3 smaller deposits."  What's the reasoning?
676  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 16, 2013, 08:22:06 PM
Look what you have done.

"Meanwhile it comes out that a cabal of developers has de facto control over the Bitcoin network and is devaluing very small wallets. The net effect of this is to reduce the money supply, deflating Bitcoin to benefit those with large holdings."

http://www.redstate.com/2013/05/16/tech-at-night-bitcoins-central-bankers-kim-dotcom-censors-mega/

Wait; "dust" in a wallet *can* be used as an input to a transaction.  If the only thing in a wallet is "dust" then as long as there is enough of it to add up to something greater than "dust" then it can be used.  What can "dust" be used to purchase?  *When* the exchange rate goes up enough then the size of "dust" can be change appropriately.  I fail to see the bad news here.
677  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dwolla can no longer process deposits or withdrawals to MtGox on: May 16, 2013, 03:17:56 AM
shoot I have a bunch of $ in mtgox, what's the best (and cheapest) way to withdraw it now???

1) on Mt. Gox trade to Bitcoin
2) withdraw to your CampBX account
3) on CampBX trade to $
4) withdraw to Dwolla

Although at the moment of the writing of this it will cost you ~$10/Btc.

The trick is to get your Mt. Gox $ to flow (via Dwolla or Okpay or Bank Transfer) to CampBX and arbitrage until the fees make it not worth it.
678  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: The Red List on: May 15, 2013, 01:51:07 PM
A case for multisig?  A mutually agreeable, er, discrete 3rd party is designated as the arbiter.  The Bitcoin transaction requires only 2 of 3 signatures.  If the original parties are, er, mutually satisfied then both sign and the arbiter is not engaged.  If there is a dispute then each makes their case and then the arbiter signs or not accordingly.
679  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: WARNING! Bitcoin will soon block small transaction outputs on: May 14, 2013, 05:03:19 PM
Does it matter if one already has "dust"?  How can one tell if they have "dust" in their wallet?
680  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will multisig escrowing be Bitcoin's "killer feature"? on: May 12, 2013, 06:05:02 AM
Use case for 3 of 4 multisig;

Today a trust company will hold gold (or other asset) on behalf of someone -- a self-directed is an example.  Nothing guarantees the trust company won't lose/steal the asset.

A self-direct IRA where the owner (2 signatures) and 2 different/independent trust companies (1 signature each) can be sure the Bitcoins remain in the designated address until the owner and at least one of the trust companies agree to release them.  The owner only needs at least one of the trust companies to be reliable.  Even if both trust companies conspire to steal the Bitcoins they cannot.

Use case for 4 of 6; owner gets 3, three different trust companies get 1 each.

Use case for 5 of 8; ...

As the number of different/independent trust companies increases the risk of one of them being unreliable increases.  An unreliable trust company could conspire with the owner to release the Bitcoins inappropriately.
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