Somewhere in 2016.
Because the BTC mined at that time is halved, which means supply to market is suddenly cut by 50%. This will bump the price significantly.
My thinking is price should rise significantly before the halving, in expectation of the reduced supply
That didn't happen at the last halving...there was a lot of FUD from the miners about how Bitcoin would die because mining would stop and everything would crash.
The infrastructure will be much more mature this time around.
The theory was that since difficulty adjusts every 2 weeks, the halving would cause most miners to turn off their rigs...if that happened at the beginning of the 2 weeks then difficulty would be so difficult for the few remaining miners that they would never be able to mine the amount of coins necessary for the difficulty to ever adjust again.
Of course, nothing close to this happened, difficulty went up and the price jumped. But Bitcoiners are so short sighted that the price only tends to go up after something has happened, not in anticipation of it. The ETF is not built into the price, the halving will not be built into the price.