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6721  Economy / Economics / Re: A Radical Plan for Blockchain Based Voting And Much More on: August 28, 2018, 08:01:31 PM
Voting is not a big problem in most countries, it's not responsible for the "broken" state of politics. Meanwhile, electronic voting itself is highly controversial, as security researches point out that it introduces a huge amount of attack vectors and provide very little improvements over traditional voting.

Quote
“Ask yourself,” says Joseph Kiniry, CEO of Free & Fair, a company that provides secure election services, “if combining the idea of an ICO and democratic elections sounds fishy or not.”


At this day, every ICO sounds fishy because of their enormous failure and scam rates, so when you add some futuristic ideas that have been only theoretical for so many years, the level of suspicion only increases. And blockchain is still nearly non-existent in production, yet people hype like it's a solid technology that can be used to build anything. I personally would be more excited if instead of building utopias people first provided working proof-of-concepts on a smaller scale and then worked their way up towards bigger and harder solutions.
6722  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-08-28] BTC Price Approaches $7,000, Tom Lee Predicts Explosive End Of Year on: August 28, 2018, 06:32:50 PM
oh great, tom lee is bullish again. Roll Eyes i want to know when he's bearish---then i can be confident that the bottom is in.

i thought he'd started to tone it down as we head into Q4. he was stuck in euphoria mode most of the year, and had finally started to backtrack on his "$25k by end of year" calls.

i guess all it takes is a little mini uptrend on the daily chart for him to start calling for a new ATH again. permabulls gonna permabull. Roll Eyes

It makes me think that Bitcoin community is a part of the problem with volatility - everyone is waiting for it to end so merchants and consumers can finally adopt Bitcoin, but then every time Bitcoin goes a few percent up or down, everyone start screaming "to the moon" or "bear market". Such hysteric reactions only contribute to volatility and it would be better if people calmed down, especially the crypto news sites who spit their junk technical analysis articles every day.
6723  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Blockchain's gift of Pseudonymity and how we lost it on: August 28, 2018, 12:41:11 AM
Your use of the word "blockchain" only brings confusion. Bitcoin was created pseudonymous, and blockchain was created as a part of Bitcoin's protocol, but later various people ripped it from Bitcoin's protocol and started calling it "blockchain technology" and hyping it as a solution to everything, and at that point pseudonymity was long forgotted, especially with the private and permissioned blockchains.

Next, banks and exchanges are not the only weak points for privacy, literally any other service that knows your identity can try to trace your wallet and then sell this data to interested parties. The solution right now is mixing services and privacy coins, in the future there might be some protocol updates that will improve privacy.
6724  Economy / Speculation / Re: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 on: August 27, 2018, 02:23:14 AM

ah, but even gold can be highly volatile. that was a 600-700% increase we saw during the '01-'11 bull run! as a trader, that's a hell of a trend to ride. maybe not quite bitcoin-level volatility, but definitely not boring either. the crash saw a nearly 50% drop from the ATH as well.

it's interesting to ponder---how the price trajectory should or will look. it's incredibly speculative, and more than that, there are no comparable assets to study. we often see comparisons to adoption curves (like the internet or cell phones), but no technology ever incorporated a native currency with a predictable, limited supply. it's a totally novel thing that we have no historical comparison for.

I totally agree with your point that any comparison of Bitcoin with anything else is quite inaccurate because of Bitcoin's key properties, but I think it shouldn't contradict my main point that in the long run volatility will decrease and we won't see instant 10-20% price changes as well as bull runs/crashes as often as we see them now. As an example, in the next 10-15 years most countries should make up their mind about BTC, so there shouldn't be any reasons for panics that we experience now (China ban, ETF rejection).
6725  Economy / Speculation / Re: Will ETFs help to contain Bitcoin price rises? on: August 26, 2018, 11:56:17 PM
The only problem with custody solutions holding tons of coins on behalf of institutions, is the fact that it grants them a serious amount of voting power within this ecosystem in the future, which is something I completely disregarded initially due to my excitement. For that specific reason I hope that we'll not be seeing any actual coin backed ETF's pop up in the forthcoming years, regardless of how much it could pump the price in the future.

An increase in price isn't worth anything when you have the same institutions (that people try to avoid dealing with in the legacy economy) control the ecosystem in here as well.

Cash settled futures and ETF's are perfectly fine as long as they don't touch the underlying asset, everything else should be a no go. In other words, we have to thank the SEC for not letting the VanEck ETF go through.

It's the same as with exchanges holding coins, when we had Bcash/SegWit2x drama last year, almost all exchanges took neutral position and tried their best to give access to both chains for their users, although some exchanges had some questionable way to name potential after-split coins.
So, I wouldn't worry about voting power, it's very unlikely that a regulated entity like ETF would try to do something contentious, unless of course they would support government-backed fork. But even in that scenario the amount of coins is not the main factor during the fork, the main factor is everyday users, that's what important in long term, not the hashrate, not the price.
6726  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: 99% of questions and answers are the same on: August 26, 2018, 11:33:50 PM
Generally, people are unfamiliar with online etiquette or don't care about it, so instead of searching they simply create new topics for their questions, and that's how any platform without hardcore moderation ends up clogged with same posts.
As for the second part of your post, you are both right and wrong. People who don't understand the technology are indeed speculating, but some are educated enough to make some good estimations of Bitcoin's actual value, so they can't be compared to gamblers.
6727  Economy / Economics / Re: 46+ Real World Blockchain Use Cases [INFOGRAPHIC] on: August 26, 2018, 10:50:53 PM
These aren't use cases, it's just a bunch of blockchain startups, probably some ICO's. I'm not going to check them, but I'm sure most of them are at early development stages won't be ready for a full release anytime soon. So, they really shouldn't be called "use-cases" if they don't have any substantial amount of real users. Let's just look at this infographic in 2-3 years and see how many projects will still be running.
6728  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Blockchain without Bitcoin, is it going to happen? on: August 26, 2018, 09:59:07 PM
The volatility in Bitcoin is an avenue for traders to earn money, this arrangement puts Bitcoin ahead of the Blockchain tech. thereby delaying global Blockchain adoption.  Blockchain without Bitcoin, is it going to happen?

You're wrong, Bitcoin doesn't stop blockchain adoption, investors are investing in whatever they think will be successful, companies are using whatever they think is going to benefit them. Blockchain is not getting adopted because it's a highly experimental tech, it doesn't actually solve many real world problems, is very hard to implement and has its own flaws. That's why tons of altcoins and ICO's have failed and are going to fail, not because Bitcoin is drawing undeserved attention.
6729  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: Silvio Micali: Satoshi never imagined industrial-scale mining on: August 26, 2018, 08:55:30 PM
The 51% attack fear mongering by giant mining corporations is unfounded.  if this happened the miners would take a massive financial hit and bitcoin would crash.  It would make no sense to do it  the negatives far outweigh the positives.  The only way is if some mad man, similar to the joker, just wants to watch the world burn and doesn't care about the money.
How about those forces who do not want the banking system to be decentralized? They don't care about value of bitcoin coz they have the printed money.


Printing money is not equal to infinite resources, you can only abuse it so much before the whole economy crumbles. And to attack Bitcoin you have to constantly burn electricity, and the only thing you really achieve is denial of service that has no lasting network effects. So, a 51% attack would only cause some short-term panic and inconvenience, which is hardly enough to kill Bitcoin. Also, with Lightning you can keep using Bitcoin even if the blockchain is being attacked by mining empty blocks, because you only need on-chain transactions to open and close channels which shouldn't be needed often.
6730  Economy / Speculation / Re: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 on: August 26, 2018, 07:10:58 PM

I think it's impossible for the boom/bust cycles to be avoided. Price has really powerful psychological effects on people, and this market is very thinly traded. Breaking an ATH and continuing, combined with mainstream media hype? Markets don't usually calm down and go sideways at that point.

Bitcoin has such a low supply (especially available supply on the spot markets) that these periodic spikes in demand naturally turn parabolic. And after the top is in, what goes up must come down. Smiley

Maybe it can't be avoided, but its magnitude can and should decrease, simply because the speculation can't continue forever. The price of Bitcoin has been so volatile because people have different opinions on Bitcoin fundamentals, some say it's useless, others believe it's going to change the world, and this is the fuel for speculation. Take gold for example, it's the opposite of Bitcoin - it's boring, people have figured out all major use-cases long ago, nothing changes in its ecosystem. Eventually Bitcoin will become boring too, protocol improvements will become less frequent, adoption will be slow after reaching certain point, and with because of that there will be no reasons for the price to jump/crash, because Bitcoin will be predictable.
6731  Economy / Economics / Re: Can a deflationary currency really work? on: August 26, 2018, 05:31:48 PM
What are the incentives to spend your money if it always goes up in value?
Does this not stunt economic growth?

The incentive is that you eventually is going to die, so why hoard money your whole life? But before you die, you're get old and your quality of life will substantially decrease and you won't be able to enjoy spending your money, so you might as well spend them why you are still young/middle aged. Just ask someone if they want to have $1,000 now or $10,000 in 50 years.
6732  Economy / Economics / Re: Turkey’s economic crisis can trigger the next crypto bull run on: August 26, 2018, 05:10:34 PM
People expect that Bitcoin will be used as a hedge, but they forget that Bitcoin is highly volatile and immature, so those who want to preserve their money are more likely to use safer options like gold or foreign currency.
Turkish Lira at the moment, appears to be more volatile than Bitcoin, which is ridiculous. But agreed, gold and foreign currencies are better ways to store wealth.

Different people have different needs, and all wealth-storing methods have their pros and cons.

If we compare the long term value, gold and foreign currencies are likely to be stable or change their price by only a few percents in a year. Bitcoin can and most likely will go up and down by a lot, so it's more of an investment than store of value. Some people simply can't afford to risk or wait for a bear market to pass.

However, Bitcoin can be more secure to store if done properly, because the government can seize your gold/cash/bank account easily.
6733  Economy / Speculation / Re: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 on: August 26, 2018, 04:16:59 PM
and who knows, maybe the pattern will change, especially if too many people are relying on it, maybe the bull run will start long before the halvening and will end shortly after it.

if too many people start believing in something it can happen. so if people start thinking the next bubble would be in 2020 by the time of halving then it may actually happen only then.
but i don't think that is the case. maybe right now many are believing it that way but as we move forward and get past the ETF slump we may start seeing a very different market and with it a very different market sentiment.

This ETF drama doesn't seem too important in the grand scheme of things, I don't expect either resolution to have a big impact on Bitcoin's price, but I look forward to seeing some new dynamic in Bitcoin's price, so far we mostly had boom/bust cycles with parabolic ATH's. A slow but steady growth could positively affect adoption and in turn reduce volatility even more. So, maybe we won't have any crazy bubbles anymore because Bitcoin is getting more mature and people are realizing that both the FUDers and the mooners were wrong and there are no fundamental reasons for Bitcoin's price to move so fast.
6734  Economy / Economics / Re: Turkey’s economic crisis can trigger the next crypto bull run on: August 26, 2018, 03:45:34 AM
So far there is no clear example of Bitcoin growing as the result of some economic disaster. People expect that Bitcoin will be used as a hedge, but they forget that Bitcoin is highly volatile and immature, so those who want to preserve their money are more likely to use safer options like gold or foreign currency. Turkey's economy is also too small to have significant effect on Bitcoin, if we had a crisis in EU or the US, that would be more likely to boost Bitcoin's price, but I doubt it would be enough to trigger a true bull run.
6735  Economy / Speculation / Re: longforecast.com 2017 vs 2018 on: August 25, 2018, 11:21:31 PM
It was dumb to predict linear growth for Bitcoin, the market was volatile and still is volatile, and the only way to know that it has matured is when we'll have a relatively stable price for many years. But the current prediction on the site predicts another bubble in 2020-2022, which makes sense, because of the next halvening, but also it seems like they are just extrapolating the patterns of the two recent bubbles, and who knows, maybe the pattern will change, especially if too many people are relying on it, maybe the bull run will start long before the halvening and will end shortly after it.
6736  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: ETFs are gone, now it's Bitmain IPO? on: August 25, 2018, 10:52:13 PM
We should avoid Wall Street financial instruments at all cost, because these fiat whales will destroy Bitcoin in a matter of weeks. They will come in and cause massive disruption and volatility, with their large access to money. <Other people's money>

Instead of us having price increases and drops of 2% to 10% per day, we will have between 20% to 50% price variance in one day, because this market is so small. Nobody will want to use their Bitcoin for payments in such a volatile market.  Angry 

We should send them a message to keep their ETFs/ETN's/IPO's .............................!

And how exactly are we going to avoid them? If they really want to get in, they'd influence the SEC to approve an ETF, and our opinion wouldn't matter. Also, if Bitcoin is so weak that it can get rekt by price manipulation from it's opponents (banksters, elites), than the whole idea was flawed from the beginning, because there's nothing we can do about it, we can't close exchanges or censor transactions we don't like. But I don't think that it's the case, Bitcoin can not be destroyed by price manipulation, and those who will try will fail and lose money, just like those who tried to spam the network.
6737  Economy / Economics / Re: Vitalik Buterin suggests a new fixed fee model for ethereum transactions on: August 25, 2018, 06:03:26 PM
So, the system was designed for cases when blocks reach 100% capacity and users start adding huge fees for their urgent transactions, but how would this system behave in those cases? It seems like you'd have to spend a lot of time trying to submit transaction while the fees are growing with each block, and ultimately it will be decided by luck, because all recent transactions will have the same value. This can negatively affect user experience in scenarios that require fast confirmations, like during some hot ICO's or in certain dapps.


it seems like a bad fee model in my opinion. fee should be set based on  the transactions waiting to be confirmed (meaing transactions in the mempool) not transactions that are already confirmed (the previous block).

this can make the fees shoot up without having any cost for the miners. imagine you are a miner, you easily fill the blocks with your own transactions and pay high fees on them. you'll spend nothing because you get the fees from transactions that never entered the mempool then next block increases the fee by 10%. find a couple of blocks and fill them like this and you'll get yourself a very high resulting fee. and a huge profit because you are earning a lot more now.

This would require cooperation between majority of miners, if a small miner would try to do this, they would risk losing their own fees if other miners mine those blocks. But depending on how full the blocks are, the threshold for this attack might be quite low.
6738  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-08-25] Google Searches for ‘Bitcoin Price’ Sink to Three-Year Low on: August 25, 2018, 01:59:06 PM
Did the author just glanced at the chart and decided that the score for "bitcoin price" is the same as it was 3 years ago? Because I just went to Google trends and checked it, today the score is 9, while in 2015 it was 1 for the whole year. This means that "bitcoin price" is still googled 9 times more than in 2015. So, either the author doesn't know how to look at charts, or they are deliberately spreading FUD.
Also, interesting to note that the searches now are close to where they were in Q1-Q3 2017, so during this bear market Bitcoin is as popular as it was during last year's bull market.
6739  Bitcoin / Press / Re: [2018-08-23] Banks Consume Over Three Times More Energy than Bitcoin, Research on: August 25, 2018, 01:02:48 AM

I think it's a crying shame that most people haven't already gone to solar energy for everything never mind just bitcoin mining. We rely far too much on fossil fuels and every household should have a solar generator on their roof and I'm surprised they aren't already more popular. Not only will they often cover your entire electricity costs some people even make money from them as their unused energy can go back into grid. You can build eco houses these days for very little that cost absolutely nothing to run. Get an electric car like a Tesla or whatever and you can even get free travel. People should be building purposely built solar energy mining farms if they haven't already, but I'm sure they will become more prevalent especially with rising energy costs along with eco-worries.


Solar energy is improving rapidly, but it's still expensive, and also has the highest carbon footprint among all green technologies. What really sucks is that some countries are closing their nuclear stations, because despite all the FUD, nuclear energy is quite clean and is very efficient.

Research like this is just pathetic cherry picking.

I would be rather more interested in the electricity consumed per user in which case the figures for BTC will look appalling. I expect that to get ironed out eventually and along the way it will drive innovation in consumption and renewables, but anyone who pretends the energy usage thing is anything other than gross is being disingenuous in the extreme. As it stands it's not a good look.

That's only because we are still in block reward phase so mining is crazy profitable, but as rewards keep halvening, miners will have to rely on transaction fees, so Bitcoin's energy consumption will be more dependent on the amount of Bitcoin users. Also we'll have Lightning, so one onchain transaction will represent thousands of LN transactions.

The world could have saved a lot of Bitcoin's electricity if Satoshi had premined all the coins, but then Bitcoin wouldn't be trustless and decentralized. But he still made it so a big portion of coins were mined in the early days. Imagine if the supply curve was linear or parabolic, the energy consumption would be much higher in those cases.
6740  Economy / Economics / Re: Are we moving towards Centralized Private Blockchains? on: August 24, 2018, 10:54:40 PM
I need to point one thing, everything has a `speculative value driven by supply and demand`, and supply and demand are people. With our trades, holding we make supply higher or lower, people that want to buy are demand. People give value to everything around.
We are not moving towards centralized private blockchains, governments do that, and some private companies, why not if they want private network, but as the customers and users we choose to use them or not, we can choose decentralized bitcoin over centralized ripple. 20 years ago nobody knew what is decentralization, everything was centralized, blockchain is a step forward not backward.

20 years ago the Internet was more decentralized because there were no big sites. Today Google, Facebook, Twitter have a huge share of Internet users. And when information becomes centralized, it's easier to control it.
Also, those private blockchains aren't meant for consumers, they are used internally and between companies. Coins like Ripple and EOS are not centralized private blockchains, they are centralized public blockchains, which is more dangerous, because they try to compete with Bitcoin and try to hide from users that they are centralized.
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