these are some random dudes from Hong Kong who are trying to advertise more for their firm by using the hot topic of these days.
there is not much explanation about how they came up with these numbers, we have to take their word for it and assume their "calculations" are true! most probably they looked at some charts and saw the 2013 thing and then drew some lines on the chart and came up with the specific number $1,780!
Yeah, I checked out their website and they're apparently a strategy consultation firm which specializes in financial services. They do seem to have an explanation about how they came up with their numbers though, as they came out with a 156-page report. I can't find a full copy because it seems to be up for sale, but here is one with the first 36 pages: https://www.quinlanandassociates.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Quinlan-Associates-Fools-Gold-Sample-Pages.pdfThey apparently tried to calculate Bitcoin's true value, which I think is an impossible task because there will always be demand as a factor. This could be a publicity stunt as you have suggested, but they're going to look like fools if their prediction falls flat in its face, which is the most likely scenario. That’s a good find, thanks. They do appear to have studied crypto based on that table of contents. I would love to find a full copy of that book online. They certainly seem to have taken every aspect of the cryptocurrency ecosphere into account. They will fall victim to the same issues all financial analysts encounter, complexity and externalities. Whether they’re studying cryptocurrency, a specific stock market or an individual governments economy there are too many unforeseen variables to predict a specific outcome. They couldn’t possibly know the depth of collusion between members of the mining cartel, the level of fraudulent market manipulation happening between all of the exchanges or the hidden criminal activities creating demand that are fueling the price climb. If the book were written by government analysts for an organization like the CIA I might believe they have a chance at being right (but they wouldn’t release the info, it would be top secret and used for raids like BTCe). A private sector firm getting it right, no way. |
|
|
|
“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”
‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before. I don't think that these people have any authority to claim this... it sounds like a "best guess attempt" to me not to say psychological terrorism. Bitcoin may retrace but never lose 90% of its current value. $1,780 is a pretty specific number. That’s different from saying it will drop by half or 70% or whatever. For supposed experts that can predict an exact price amount, I have never heard anything about them and I follow bitcoin news as a hobby. |
|
|
|
“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”
‘In the short term, Quinlan Associates sees nothing but a period of a critical bloodbath for bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem as a whole. However, the firm opined that the market would be rebound after the crash to experience another period of growth triggered by cryptocurrencies with strong foundations and a clear utility https://btcmanager.com/quinlan-associates-bitcoin-price-will-crash-1800-2018/Who are these people? I’ve never heard of them before. |
|
|
|
|
How is it that no one seems to understand bitcoin is divisible to eight decimal places? Just like a $1 bill can be broken down into 100 pennies, bitcoin (the currency) can also be broken down and divided into smaller units. There are really 2,099,999,997,690,000 (just over 2 quadrillion) maximum possible units in the bitcoin system.
If you own 0.00000001 btc you are still holding some bitcoin. It’s the same thing as holding dollars. You don’t have to be a millionaire to say you are saving money for the future. You can start saving with only one dollar.
|
|
|
|
First picture: guys just made an account on CE and logged in, omg, wtf... Second picture: deposited some BTC and exchanged it to some shitcoin, profit!  You may be right. LOL |
|
|
|
<snip>
I dont know..i feel it has SOME value. I see it as a kind of starting point? A very broad base from which to grow an opinion from? and using your analogy starships and automobiles... (going VERY hypothetical here, lol...) lets say the market cap of starships is 200B and autos 2 T .... starships' rough estimate of value is 10 % of the autos. But maybe i think starships could be as big as autos...or half as big. Using that broad opinion...i can look at market cap and see its at 10% the 'value' of autos...i think it should be 50% eventually... so, by using the market caps of the 2...i see perceived value in starships. Now, i certainly wouldnt make any investing decisions based solely on market caps of anything...but again...i see it as a jumping off point in certain situations.
I can use it now in my research on ETH...i think versus BTC it has more potential and room for growth...so i could look at the market caps of the 2, compare them, and get a very rough estimate of ETH value vs' BTC...then go from there.
and to give my opinion on the original question...nothing. the same that happened when dow hit 25k. news outlets talk about it for a few news cycles, then it becomes 'old news' and back to business as usual. maybe get some dumb money chasing the rockets....
Dude what The market cap is a total sum of the price of an asset times the number of unique asset pieces that exist. It's not some metric for comparing how valuable some cryptos are versus others and trying to use some kind of ratio for it. The DOW is something completely different and is a giant mass of the values of every asset (or 1x of every unique asset) included within it being added together and displayed as the DOW Jones' value, not a market cap. Let me explain market caps like this: if I have a crypto with 100 tokens, each at $1, and a crypto with 1 token, at $100, one of them is valued at a market cap of $100 and the other at $100 as well. Under your thinking, they are the same and they both have the same potential for growth. But the token with 100 pieces at $1/piece has a much higher chance of growing, and with larger percentage gains, than the token at $100. This shouldn't be that hard. Thank god! Someone with a brain that can take over. I’m leaving this thread. It’s making my head hurt. |
|
|
|
I'm so sorry to all who have a bitcoin in indonesia. I feel you brother, it's not easy to accept that they prohibit bitcoin in your own country. I hope they will accept in the near future.
Why would you feel sorry for them? They are still able to hold it, sell it in foreign exchanges, they can wait for their government attitude to change or leave the country with their money and pay taxes somewhere else. They aren't being oppressed in any way. Borders are open, when your country does something that you don't approve of change the country. It's not as simple as just walking across a border and then starting a new life in a different country. There's a lot of things that can tie someone down; employment, family, business, assets, just to say the least. I would have to assume that you live in Europe if you think that crossing borders is that simple all around the world, and I can assure you that there can be a lot of unwanted effort to try and do something like that. They're also a bunch of islands, which requires either a boat ride or a plane ticket to change to another country if you don't live on one of the main islands. The typical wage is relatively low. Do you think they're going to be able to just go to another country and walk away with most of their assets at the same time? I don’t know if that’s true dude. These guys look like they could swim pretty well if they had to.  They seem to be happy just like they are. Maybe they don’t need bitcoin anyway. LOL  |
|
|
|
I dont know..i feel it has SOME value. I see it as a kind of starting point? A very broad base from which to grow an opinion from? and using your analogy starships and automobiles... (going VERY hypothetical here, lol...) lets say the market cap of starships is 200B and autos 2 T .... starships' rough estimate of value is 10 % of the autos. But maybe i think starships could be as big as autos...or half as big. Using that broad opinion...i can look at market cap and see its at 10% the 'value' of autos...i think it should be 50% eventually... so, by using the market caps of the 2...i see perceived value in starships. Now, i certainly wouldnt make any investing decisions based solely on market caps of anything...but again...i see it as a jumping off point in certain situations.
I can use it now in my research on ETH...i think versus BTC it has more potential and room for growth...so i could look at the market caps of the 2, compare them, and get a very rough estimate of ETH value vs' BTC...then go from there.
That’s a good one, let’s use ETH vs BTC. Can all of the people owning and using ETH also own BTC? Of course, so it’s usless to compare their market cap looking for growth potential because it could be the same people. It is possible that Bitcoin lovers hate Ethereum so none of them will ever use ether. So comparing market cap tells you nothing about growth potential because you will never steal bitcoin users over to Ethereum. Bitcoin is a currency or a commodity and Ethereum is a vehicle for smart contracts. They aren’t even used for the same thing. You can’t compare the market cap and find out anything useful about potential growth because that would be like comparing the pharmaceutical industry to banana plantations. Just because the market cap of the pharmaceutical industry is more than banana plantations does not mean there is any room for growth in banana sales. Do you see what I mean? |
|
|
|
|
Of course it’s money just like pussy is money. Women trade pussy for cars, houses, diamonds, gold, dinner, drinks, dollars and movie tickets. If you think about it, pussy is more universally accepted as money than bitcoin. ROFL
|
|
|
|
Oh god, you have to keep explaining the same fucking thing here over and over again.
Market capitalization is a useless metric for measuring the value of a commodity or currency. Market cap is also incorrectly used to tell what a company is really worth. The market cap formula is simply this: The amount of dollars per share of a company x the total number of shares of that company. Market capitalization is about the price of a company. It only tells other companies what they are likely to need to pay to gobble up another company. The economic pigmies that set up these bitcoin price sites years ago started using market cap like they are describing the value of a company because they’re dumbasses. All the “follow the leader” dumbasses copied what they were doing on other sites so it spread. Bitcoin has a fixed number of “shares” so all market cap is telling you is the current price of bitcoin. The number of “shares” will increase slightly until all 21m are mined and then it will be fixed forever. It would be more useful to discuss the effect of monarch butterflies landing on superheated bitcoin mining equipment as it relates to increasing the user base of bitcoin.
might be because I'm newbie, but I don't quite understand your point. what's wrong with the use of market cap? how would you calculate the total worth of the market? coin price alone means nothing cause there can be 1 coin or 1 bil coins. coin supply alone doesn't say anything either without knowing it's price. but if you multiply the coin supply with the current coin price you get how much money the market is worth in current prices. Ok, I’ll give you that. How would you know if don’t understand what a market cap is. Market cap is used to set investor expectations and shape investment strategy. There is no official barrier for different categories of stocks based on size, but large caps are often companies with market caps over $10 billion, mid cap is $2 billion to $10 billion and small cap refers to companies under $2 billion. Different types of investment strategies focus on the various market cap groups, and different valuation methods are applied depending on company size. Very large market caps are usually associated with mature, low-growth companies that pay dividends. Small caps are often growth companies with higher-risk profiles and generally do not pay dividends. For bitcoin market cap tells you nothing about maturity, nothing about potential growth, nothing about user base, nothing about true value, nothing about whether it’s a good investment or not, nothing about size. It only tells you what bitcoin is priced at based on the current number of coins in circulation. So essentially it’s the same thing as looking up the price except to find out the current price using market cap you need to divide out the cap and total coins to find out the price. Why don’t you just look at the price first without doing all that work? "It only tells you what bitcoin is priced at based on the current number of coins in circulation." ..... that EXACTLY the same information that market cap of any stock would tell you. Its the same information conveying the same thing. Its simply used as a comparison tool to compare different asset classes and gives a rough 'value' of said stock/coin/indice/etc. If i have 100 of something and each one is worth 5 bucks... then my 'market cap' is 500 ..... stop over complicating this. its a rough comparison tool. S&P500 market cap is 10T ...crypto's 700B ...ok that tells me the crypto market is about 7% the size of the s&p in terms of 'wealth'. (and i only use that comparison for analogy sake ...not commenting on the crypto or s&p for the sake of this post  ) Right! That’s why you don’t use market cap as a metric for stocks, commodities or currency. It’s only valuable for showing the size of a company and it’s dividend class. It tells you nothing useful about stocks, just like it tells you nothing useful about bitcoin. Comparing the s&p to bitcoin is like comparing starships to automobiles. Sure they are both for transportation but that’s where it ends. |
|
|
|
|
I’m beginning to see a pattern here. Brown people don’t trust bitcoin because it fails to use curry powder and rice on a daily basis.
|
|
|
|
You have discovered why so many day traders kill themselves. Most people (other than the very lucky) fail miserable at trading. You would have a better chance of survival being a prostitute working in an HIV ward than being a day trader.  |
|
|
|
|
Best to study until you're a senior before you buy. Freshman students don’t design and build a drone in their first year.
|
|
|
|
Happiness is a warm puppy.  |
|
|
|
|
The real answer to this question is that most people aren’t really very well educated or very intelligent. There is no possibility that the average person understands enough about macroeconomics and also enough about bitcoin to see that bitcoin cannot replace fiat for even the smallest country.
Don’t be frustrated with stupid bitcoin users. Embrace them and love them because they're driving the exchange rate through the roof. If you need a release just come to this forum and make fun of them. That’s what I do and it works wonders. LOL
|
|
|
|
ALL of the block reward and fees come from newly minted coins.
Uh...Would you care to explain please? Mining fees are payed from the inputs of the transaction. I am not that certain about the details of the protocol, but I do assume that these coins are funded to the miner's address with only one coinbase transaction that doesn't reference these inputs. So in a way, I would understand if that was what you meant, but the coins still practically from those old inputs. Increasing fees (readjust the balance as you say) harms the mining industry because fewer people are willing to use bitcoin.
When I said "readjust the balance", I was referring to decrease of hashpower, not increase in fees, so I am not sure what you mean by this. The balance I was referring to is the amount of hashpower that will be there in Bitcoin. If there are no transactions mining would go on, as miner's would still get the block reward, it is just that the hashpower will decrease. And about the amount of people using Bitcoin and that harming miner's. well of course, this is the indirect factor I wasn't referring to. If you have less transactions, it means you likely have less users, which means price of BTC goes down, which means the block reward is smaller. But this is obvious and not something on a technical level that I was discussing. Sure, I can explain that for you. Most things about bitcoin are not self explanatory or obvious. Fees incentivize miners to include transactions in a block. Once a transaction has been included in a block it is confirmed. Unconfirmed transactions sit in something called the mempool until they are confirmed. When you hit send on your client your transaction is sent to a bitcoin network “node” (a full client with a complete copy of the blockchain) and transmitted throughout the network (all of the full clients connected together). Miners can select (from the memory pool, ie. the nodes holding area) which transactions are included in blocks that they mine. Since miners want to maximize income, they will include transactions from the mempool that include higher fees. I misunderstood what you meant by “readjust the balance”. Now I get you. In mining, there’s something called the difficulty adjustment. The Bitcoin network difficulty is the measure of how difficult it is to find a new block compared to the easiest it can ever be. It is recalculated every 2016 blocks to a value such that the previous 2016 blocks would have been generated in exactly two weeks had everyone been mining at this difficulty. This will yield, on average, one block every ten minutes. A “decrease in hash power” simply means the difficulty adjusts to maintain the 2016-10 minute yield which has nothing to do with price. “ If you have less transactions, it means you likely have less users, which means price of BTC goes down, which means the block reward is smaller.” Let me address each part of that statement because there are a lot of components at play there. The block reward is a fixed amount paid to a miner every block. By design, it cuts in half every 210,000 blocks or roughly every four years. It has nothing to do with fees. Less transactions can simply mean people are sitting on their btc and not transmitting them to the network. It doesn’t really have anything to do with the number of users. 10 users could send 100 transactions a day or 1000 users could send one and it would have the same outcome on the network. Speculators are controlling the price of bitcoin. They buy and sell against each other in a really costly game of “tug of war”. The bitcoin price can be manipulated by thousands of dollars without necessarily needing very many transactions. The size of a bitcoin block is fixed at 1mb. Our beloved Satoshi snuck a limit on the blocksize to 1mb and after he did it he said it was to control spam blocks on the network. Because Satoshi screwed us, only a limited amount of data (and so a limited number of transactions) can be added to a block at a time. With more and more people sending more and more transactions, the cost for getting into the next "block" of bitcoin transactions is getting higher and higher. Fees are going up because of Satoshi’s unilaterial decision to fix the blocksize. With so many people using bitcoin worldwide it would be almost impossible for the “fee” to reduce because some users stopped making transactions. I know that’s a lot of info that could possibly use a more in-depth explanation. I will be happy to do that for you if you tell me what part is unclear. |
|
|
|
That would have to be a pretty stupid AI. The AI would have to know almost nothing about macro economics, nothing about deflation, nothing about governments monetary policies, nothing about the human condition/human motivations/greed/avarice/manipulation, nothing about modern banking, nothing about business, nothing about the ACH/EFT System, and be a poor Coder in C++. LOL
well did you watch the movie? for now, the AI does pretty well taking advantage of the human greed, motivations and macro economics and living its comfortable artificial life inside the massive computing power that was created to serve its needs. I am not saying that the movie is true but i think if it were true, than the AI it describes would not be as dumb as you make it appear Now that is an interesting concept. An AI invents bitcoin to draw in people and destroy them using their own frailties. Sounds like a sci-fi movie that should star Arnold Schwarzenegger. |
|
|
|
because women are less interested in trying to make money with them but they prefer to spend money so they are lazy to learn about bitcoin, they just have fun, shopping, traveling etc.
Your really close to correct. You almost got it. because women are less interested in trying to make money with them (because they know they have the pussy and we want it) but they prefer to spend (our) money so (that makes them) they are lazy to learn about bitcoin much smarter than we are, they (are allowed to) just have fun, shopping, traveling etc. (because we don’t want to jack off for the rest of our lives and we can’t just club them over the head and drag them to our cave anymore) |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
