Bitcoin Forum
June 30, 2024, 09:23:03 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: « 1 ... 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 [351] 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 ... 1525 »
7001  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How weird is it to borrow money and invest into Bitcoin? on: September 01, 2021, 01:39:48 AM
Bitcoin price is increasing so fast such that some people wish they borrowed and bought bitcoin at 29k some weeks ago

I want to know if it's much risk to borrow and purchase bitcoin like it is to trade bitcoin. However, the market is pumping, and it may seem like a good move if the loan is not for lunch, rent, and family bills which account for our daily needs (That is, my daily needs have been taken care of). Thus, timing is another criterion to discuss. How can someone know the perfect time to pick such a desperate gamble? We win or lose in trading or holding bitcoin but, I presume with the help of experts in this forum who have gone through thick and thins in this market, good guides or rules can be shared for users and newbies in the forum to have a grip on the market and know if borrowing is appropriate. It does sound thoughtless but, borrowing is part of the business. And we must prepare for the best as well.

Thanks, I'm ready to learn.
It is not weird, but it is very risky. The first rule of investing in crypto currencies (bitcoin) is to make sure you can afford any losses. But since you are borrowing money, it means you don't have any extra money that you can lose. You are just gambling and trying out your luck. There is a chance you might lose a portion of your investment and then fail to return the money. If you are very confident that you can pay back the money you have borrowed, then go ahead and invest. Or else, just return the money. Try saving some and then invest.

There's something strange about your framing of the issue, adzino. The future is not known and is not knowable, especially regarding some kind of dynamic (BTC price performance) that relies on a variety of happenings and the behavior of many other humans.  The best that any of us could do is to assign some kind of a percentage probability, and sure there could be a 90% likelihood that the BTC price had been 12% or more higher ($52,864) in two years (as compared to what it was at the time of the origination of the loan (let's say $47,200)), but most likely the odds are not even going to be close to 90%, they are going to be more like 45% at best, but maybe out of the range of possibilities, 45% seems quite high.. because there might be a 24% chance that the price goes down, and 31% chance that BTC price goes sideways or UP and never sufficiently surpasses supra 12% levels for a long enough period that OP ends up cashing out in such a way to make his loan profitable.  Of course, the plan should be to be able to pay pack the loan no matter how bitcoin performs in the next two years, and surely the calculation of odds might be that the BTC price is likely to be high enough to be profitable.

Let's take the 45% chance of UP more than 12%, and I am not even sure if that is a realistic number, but if the odds can be divided up that the BTC price could get to:

$52,864 or higher = 45%

Between $53k and $80k = 9%

Between $80k and $120k = 15%

Between $120k and $300k = 9.5%

Between $300k and $600k = 6.5%

Between $600k and $1.5million = 3.5%

$1.5million or higher = 0.5%

So, even with these kinds of odds, there is potential that such employment of a loan could pay off stupendously, even though the odds for getting 12% or greater higher than today's price might only be around 45%, but those odds of getting above $52,864 might be considered amongst the most likely of all of the possible scenarios with some potential of achieving some way higher price points to the upside, but still far from guaranteed for any of this, because there are down scenarios, too.. but just based on a series of possibilities that ultimately are not known currently the scenarios end up becoming known after the next two years plays out.
7002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2021, 09:16:27 PM

Cutting middlemen fees frees resources for the more important things.

... I saw some economic analysis once that showed transaction friction contributes/detracts from GDP like the 4th power, it's a powerful multiplier if that's the case

... makes sense though, the easier it is to trade, the more people trade more.

... AML/KYC, reporting requirements, bank fees, levies, duty, vat, gst ... it's all transactional friction and huge drag/hindrance to trade

Overall aspects of this idea of free trade sounds like it is in the ballpark of correct, but bitcoin seems to be more than just a pigeon-holing of "free trade."

and, I am of the opinion that there is not necessarily anything bad with some of the taxing ideas that allow for government.. because government implies some abilities to go beyond individuals in terms of some goods and resources that have community (public) aspects to them.

To me, it seems that  some matters, interactions and use of resources do not get resolved in and of themselves. .. and of course, bitcoin can bring a lot of accountability to various governmental systems, but it does not take away the idea of public goods or the fact that if some individuals were left to their own devices they would consume way more than anything even close to their fair share...   I don't claim to know the solution, even though part of consensus as well would be that no one would necessarily know the solution either except for finding some balances.. and bitcoin likely brings a lot more fairness to this process over the status quo systems in which balances are frequently found in ways that hide some of the value robbing that is taking place over the public and ends up benefiting a narrow swath of disparately influential people.

allways the same with them WO noobs... 🙈

Not always exactly the same.

there is newbie variance

and sure there are some dumb-ass commonalities, too.

.. Accordingly, we (royal-ish) try to NOT be too judgmental or even to hold grudges against some of the newbie patterns that arise from time to time.   Wink

 Tongue
7003  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How weird is it to borrow money and invest into Bitcoin? on: August 31, 2021, 07:58:53 PM
Bitcoin price is increasing so fast such that some people wish they borrowed and bought bitcoin at 29k some weeks ago

I want to know if it's much risk to borrow and purchase bitcoin like it is to trade bitcoin. However, the market is pumping, and it may seem like a good move if the loan is not for lunch, rent, and family bills which account for our daily needs (That is, my daily needs have been taken care of). Thus, timing is another criterion to discuss. How can someone know the perfect time to pick such a desperate gamble? We win or lose in trading or holding bitcoin but, I presume with the help of experts in this forum who have gone through thick and thins in this market, good guides or rules can be shared for users and newbies in the forum to have a grip on the market and know if borrowing is appropriate. It does sound thoughtless but, borrowing is part of the business. And we must prepare for the best as well.

Thanks, I'm ready to learn.
Bitcoin is high on volatility its price always moved and changing, you must know how hard to hit a moving object because Bitcoin is something like that it always moved and you need to hit it with you're limit price to win it, I believe in Bitcoin and holding it is really profitable if you have patience, but if you are greedy and lack of patience just find another ways to earn.

Actually, you seem to be making another decent point, rhodelmabanal.  There is a certain aspect of bitcoin in which you do not need to use any kind of leverage in order to have the potential of profiting stupendously from even being involved in bitcoin. 

There are so many normies who have failed/refused to take any kind of meaningful stake in bitcoin, so even a less aggressive BTC accumulation strategy may well end up contributing a lot of UPside in the future.  Of course, more aggressive BTC accumulation strategies are likely to fair somewhat better, but there are not guarantees of course, but the nature of an asymmetric bet does involve appreciating the asymmetric nature of it allows for multiples of possible price appreciation based on whatever value does end up getting put into it.
7004  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2021, 07:39:30 PM
Yes.  And, some peeps would love to receive more details regarding what you be up to.  I suppose you don't have any problems with that because you have nothing to hide, right?

I have no problem at all with people wanting to know what I am up to.

Oh gawd....  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Have you even heard of the thingie of this thread.. king daddy?

(no I am not calling you king daddy, I am calling you capswock, the cooking tool.. yes, tool of a fool
 --  #nohomo)
7005  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2021, 07:31:57 PM
Carbon-Negative Bitcoin ETF to Launch by Accelerate Financial Technologies

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carbon-negative-bitcoin-etf-launch-112722279.html

It seems like Canadians are after all the ETFs left over by the USA...

"carbon negative" mumbo jumbo.. what a bunch of baloney..
Yes, it's mostly BS, as cAPSLOCK swiftly pointed out.

I have exactly ZERO problem with this existing.  Just like if you want to buy only organic apples.  Or more apropos if you choose to buy your energy from a provider that buys 100% renewable to offset your use (They market this like you are actually using only renewable energy when in fact you are paying for the production, not the use of renewables... you house uses energy from coal, just like you next door neighbor who does not give a crap).

The way I see it, it's all good for bitcoin.

Hurr durr too much energy used for magic internet money... but wait... it's GREEN!
So now we have green(washed?) bitcoin in the form of an ETF. So go buy that if you want to save the planet.

However, what I care about the most about new ETFs is: physical backed, redeemable in kind (meaning: in corn)?

Physical backing is good for SEC (or equivalent) clearance, because it gives the issuer 100% insurance against wild price swings, which the honey badger is quite fond of. Redeemable in kind is good for OGs and hodlers of both actual corn and ETF shares, because it gives the OG/hodler good insurance against fuckery, and it forces the issue to buy some moar if anyone wants to redeem a chunk.

Unfortunately, nowhere in that Yahoo Finance article are these essential features mentioned.

Of course, many longer term bitcoiners recognize and appreciate the value in direct bitcoin ownership and the ability to claim your coins, upon request.  

For sure a lot of people want to gain exposure to bitcoin through various financial instruments, and they do not know, appreciate or understand the value of direct custody or abilities to demand custody.  Sure through the years we might well have to learn more about these kinds of direct custody values and the abilities to demand immediate custody.. and people tend to contract away those kinds of rights, and sure financialization of bitcoin is still likely to create UPwards and UPpity price pressures on the corn, but we should not be fooling ourselves into believing that a lot of those instruments create more corn than exist, and some of those third party custodians are increasing their chances of getting their asses handed to them if they don't adequately protect their lil selfies with enough actual corn in their holdings in the event that king daddy decides to go on a bit of a face-melting UPpity that could end up punishing some of those kinds of folks.. perhaps? perhaps?

Are your nodes green capswock (Chinese cooking instrument)?  What about dee lighting ones?  The word lightning does not sound very green to me, either.   Tongue

The node I am working on today.  Takes 3.4watts.  It's on 24/7.  It costs less than 1 cent a day to run, and under 3 dollars a year.

It uses less energy than a nightlight.  It would be considered EXTREMELY environmentally friendly.

Yes.  And, some peeps would love to receive more details regarding what you be up to.  I suppose you don't have any problems with that because you have nothing to hide, right?  You know that we need to keep track of some of the details in order that the information is credible and we can get a rating for our jurisdiction, and I know that you gots no problem with that either, right?  It's not a BIGGie, right?  It's zero problem, right?
7006  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2021, 07:07:58 PM
Carbon-Negative Bitcoin ETF to Launch by Accelerate Financial Technologies

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carbon-negative-bitcoin-etf-launch-112722279.html

It seems like Canadians are after all the ETFs left over by the USA...

"carbon negative" mumbo jumbo.. what a bunch of baloney.. I was on the fence whether to send a merit for a bitcoin related link.. but jeez.. I just get negatively affected by the content sometimes..and not really sure what I should say.. it's almost like in the earlier days when we used to get excited about anything mentioning bitcoin, and it took some of us a bit of time to realize that they weren't really saying bitcoin in some of the articles.. they were talking mumbo jumbo talk.. .. such as referring to blockchain or some other gobbledy-gook  ways of dancing around the bitcoin topic.. and sure some people say that anything is good for bitcoin, so I am not completely hostile towards any which way this pig might take me... (thanks again billyjoelallen)

I have exactly ZERO problem with this existing.  Just like if you want to buy only organic apples.  Or more apropos if you choose to buy your energy from a provider that buys 100% renewable to offset your use (They market this like you are actually using only renewable energy when in fact you are paying for the production, not the use of renewables... you house uses energy from coal, just like you next door neighbor who does not give a crap).

Sure, go ahead and have your "ZERO" problem.. it's a free country.. last time I checked.

However, I consider the dealing with money, security of a decentralized system to be a wee bit more nuanced than from where you got your apples..

Get a grip..

The more and more people reporting their supposed "cleanliness" becomes problematic in terms of reporting requirements.. and sure, people can report whatever the fuck they want.. they don't have nothing to hide right?  they don't need to hide the fact that they are mining bitcoin, right? or how big their operations might be, right?  or what jurisdiction they might be in or not in or overlapping, right?  No problem right.  Governments and status quo industries are not hostile to bitcoin at all, right ?  We be like one BIG happy family, no?

So if people want to participate in, and fund businesses that produce "GREEN" bitcoin?  Fine.

How do you get to knowing that information.  Is it relevant?   Sure it is relevant to some peeps.  It is especially relevant to peeps who have hardly any fucking clue about what bitcoin is and what purposes in society bitcoin might serve.  It is also relevant to people who know what bitcoin is and they would prefer to have either a weaker version of bitcoin, some shitcoins or no bitcoin at all.  Is it relevant to decentralization?  whatchu thinkening?

It's not a problem.. It's zero problem, right?

But the moment the market starts to try to differentiate between UTXOs, or some draconian legislation goes into effect.  Then I have a problem.

O.k. zero problem seems to be a slippery slope, doesn't it?  Of course, they are not going to leave their curiosities about bitcoin out of the fungibility questions.. they would like to express some concerns about fungibility.. and did I mention privacy?  Is there such a thing as voluntary disclosure that is helpful for everyone in terms of how many bitcoins you have?

Thing is they will learn the hard way like everyone has who tries to attack bitcoin.  But it *could* delay the journey for all of us.

Of course it is a kind of attack that already rises to the level of greater than zero problemas.

Oh no... We should just wait.. and let the voluntary disclosures about greenie weenie happen first, no?  Voluntary disclosure doesn't hurt nobody, right?  Are your nodes green capswock (Chinese cooking instrument)?  What about dee lighting ones?  The word lightning does not sound very green to me, either.   Tongue
7007  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2021, 05:48:02 PM
Carbon-Negative Bitcoin ETF to Launch by Accelerate Financial Technologies

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carbon-negative-bitcoin-etf-launch-112722279.html

It seems like Canadians are after all the ETFs left over by the USA...

"carbon negative" mumbo jumbo.. what a bunch of baloney.. I was on the fence whether to send a merit for a bitcoin related link.. but jeez.. I just get negatively affected by the content sometimes..and not really sure what I should say.. it's almost like in the earlier days when we used to get excited about anything mentioning bitcoin, and it took some of us a bit of time to realize that they weren't really saying bitcoin in some of the articles.. they were talking mumbo jumbo talk.. .. such as referring to blockchain or some other gobbledy-gook  ways of dancing around the bitcoin topic.. and sure some people say that anything is good for bitcoin, so I am not completely hostile towards any which way this pig might take me... (thanks again billyjoelallen)
7008  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2021, 04:54:59 PM


You know that there are some guys in the lightning network threads who are connecting with each other too, right? 

Maybe other threads as well, but this one:
The Lightning Network FAQ


Yeah...  But I wanted to offer to my brethren first...  Otherwise I will likely choose more randomly/anonymously.

Fair enough.
7009  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: How weird is it to borrow money and invest into Bitcoin? on: August 31, 2021, 04:48:23 PM
First of all, there have been a lot of posters here posting about crypto or talking about crypto, and we are not talking about "crypto" in this thread.

Op specifically asked about bitcoin, so fuck the nonsense talk about crypto, even if some of the similar principles regarding use of credit could be applied.

Surely, it is not weird to borrow money to invest, whether we are referring to investing in bitcoin or anything else, but it would be irresponsible (and unduly) risky to borrow without some kind of decently concrete plan regarding how the money is paid back, and having some back up ways to pay back, in the event that the investment goes south.

Of course, many forum members are likely familiar with various terms that Michael Saylor created or structured with various Microstrategy loans that were 4 years or more and some of his financing went to 7 years or did not constitute a loan at all but a possible dilution of MSTR share prices.  With bitcoin as the underlying investment there can be a lot more confidence that having loans that play out for 4 years or longer will have much higher likelihoods of being able to pay back the loan with the proceeds in the investment itself (referring to bitcoin, here)..

There are surely advantages and likely more options when having enough credit or collateral to be able to structure loans for longer periods of time.

The three most sound ways to buy/accumulate bitcoin is to lump sum invest, DCA and buy on dips.  Many times normies do not have a lot of money in order to lump sum invest into bitcoin or anything else, so they will resort to a combination of DCA and buying on dips, and even buying on dips requires some holding of value in reserves in order to take advantage of price drops when (or if) they occur.

Surely, getting a loan does allow people to leverage more of the ability to lump sum invest and buy on dips, and perhaps there would be a tendency to attempt to use the money for lump sum investing or frontloading, but there might also be some utility that could come from holding some value in reserve to buy on dips, even though we can never really have a lot of confidence if a dip will occur, how far it will go or how long it will last.

As far as use of loan money to buttress a cashflow or investment, there should be some need to consider cashflow for the term of the loan and back-up payback resources, and surely the terms of the interest rate of the loan should also be considered, so if someone is able to land a loan for $24k for 2 years with an annual interest rate of 6%, the minimum monthly payments may well be over $150 per month, and at the end of the two years of monthly minimum payments, nearly $3k would have gone towards interest, and $23.3k would still be needed to pay off the balance of the loan at the end of the two year term.

There are a variety of ways to attempt to assess whether such a loan would be valuable, and surely any loan can help with managing of cashflow, and some loans might require payments to be spread out through the term of the loan rather than allowing for a lump sum payment at the end, so the same loan for $24k might require $1,064 monthly payments in order to fully service the loan by the end of the 24 month period.

Terms of the loan may well depend on your credit, and surely some loan terms are going to cause the loan to be more manageable and potentially profitable than other terms, and I don't mind the idea of using leverage so long as you sufficiently understand the payback obligations and you account for the ability to pay back the loan in its entirety without relying on upwards performance of the asset.

I do also understand and appreciate the shorter-term scenario (and loan) of only 4 months set forth by Arriemoller in his earlier post in this thread, and surely there is a bit of gambling on a short-term theory that is described, and sure the odds could be a wee bit in his favor, and if he is prepared to pay back the loan from other sources in the event that his gamble does not pay off, then he is preparing himself financially and perhaps psychologically for the risk that he is undertaking..

By the way, I am surely familiar when guys assign probability values to their expected scenarios that are quite a bit higher than reality, so in the cases in which the bet (BTC price in this case) moves against them, then they end up being damaged both financially and psychologically ... surely having the financial preparations in place can help with the psychology in the event that the market were to move opposite of expectations.
7010  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2021, 03:33:05 PM
HEY WOers!

I am cleaning out some of my problem channels on my little Raspiblitz node and am going to have some incoming liquidity to aim at new nodes.  I was starting to research what's out there that would likely increase my connectivity, and traffic.  And it's really hard to do... It's hard to see what channels would be USED by the network etc.

Then I had a thought!

Maybe one of you might want some inbound liquidity?  I certainly understand the whole OpSec angle etc... but I personally do not mind if you don't!  Particularly if you are a regular denizen here. 

So let me know...  In about 4 hours I will have as much as 3 million sats to open a channel with maybe more depending on if I close some more weak channels today cooperatively.  But would also be willing to go down to 500k.  My channel size philosophy has changed over the months.  I started out not really caring about size, then I set the min channel size i would accept at 1mm. And it's still there.  But with MPP active there are arguments for smaller channels as well.  But I think I still prefer aiming for 1mm at the lowest.

I am a "BOS" ranked node with a score of 11940298 putting it in the top 200 nodes. I expect that to go up a little bit as I add back the channels. I am well connected.  Well maintained on this little node, and plan to leave it up indefinitely.  I have a much larger node running on server hardware, but I might take that one down as it costs me money.  And if so, I may also migrate sats over to this little one.  But at the moment this little guy has about 2/3rds of a bitcoin liquidity, but heavily skewed to inbound liquidity, so opening a channel to you would help me!

Anyone interested?

PS.  I used to keep my channels fairly balanced.  But this is 1.  A LOT of work and not easy to do, and 2. Futile in my humble opinion.  My node keeps itself fairly well balanced with relatively ample liquidity on both sides.  So I do not care as much if channels get out of "balance" as long as they don't just sit dormant.  in fact some of my most active channels tend to have all the liquidity sitting on one side or the other of the channel and then whoosh over to the other side...

You know that there are some guys in the lightning network threads who are connecting with each other too, right? 

Maybe other threads as well, but this one:
The Lightning Network FAQ

i dunno what happens but i imagine it could be something like this..

dyor

D

stronghands

I like where you put the little elbow.  I surely do not know as much as you about technical things (I still have no idea what the ichimoku clouds are)... but it seems to me that somewhere between 50-56k might be a bit of a fight, but there is a certain point where not that much is holding honeybadger back...

Well getting above $55k-ish puts us into a deadman's zone that goes until about $80k.

I have been considering that the longer that we hang out in sub $55k, then the easier it might be able to pass all the way through deadman's zone but also just spending so much time sub $55k will also help to lessen a need for any kind of down before up.

Surely a variety of scenes could end up playing out, so many of us likely can appreciate not only the amount of time that we ended up spending largely in the lower $30ks and then our subsequent time getting above $43k and staying above $43k for nearly a month now.. and also no real major corrections ever since we started moving up from $29,296 about 6 weeks ago.... ...

So a lot of those price support forces are happening and likely giving some ammunition to potentially get through no man's zone of $55k to $80k once passing into it.

Kind of a big deal indeed. Imagine all the remittances to the homeland slowly crossing over to bitcoin - for people working in the USA, EU, Japan sending their hard earned money to their families in South America, Africa, Asia. Of course, the government offering a tasty incentive (30$ for El Salvador) does help to push adoption, as does the promise of no commission. But even if there were small commissions, WU and other fiat mongerers are going to be toast if this thing takes off.

This thing is in the midst of having already having had taken off, so Western Union (WU) is already toast in terms of their old business model, so if they want to continue to survive as a business they are likely going to have to figure out ways to incorporate bitcoin into their operations.. not an impossible tasks - even if a wee bit less ability to suck off a lot of profits if dealing directly in bitcoin is either zero fees or close to zero fees.. at least in some areas.

Of course, there are learning curve matters, and people sometimes are creatures of habit and will sometimes remain reluctant to learn the most basic of things, so WU could take some advantage of systems already in place and reluctances to learn of some people, but maybe it there is such a difference between gouging and free.. the transition might become more violent than WU is able to transition into and figure out how to retain much if any profitable channels.. the gradual and then suddenly model with suddenly coming up soon.tm
7011  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 31, 2021, 12:11:48 AM
I have been speculating for months (maybe over a year now) that most of the action for bitcoin trade has been happening away from the retail exchanges.  I think most of the big trades are happening on OTC desks.  This is where Microstrategy, and Greyscale et al buy their corn.  It's not like they use Tradeogre... lol.  

I am not saying that you are wrong about these points, and it is even possible that MSTR has changed its ways somewhat, but based on some of its earliest of disclosures in late 2020 (several of them, in fact), I was under the impression that they were engaged in some kind of spot price multiple transactions in order to acquire their bitcoin.

You have more info than me.  And the buys could have happened on an exchange publicly.  My thoughts are 100% speculation... no facts. Wink  But if you were Armstrong (I think I remember a story is was CB?  But either way)  And you had a customer who wanted to get 9 figures of USD into bitcoin... how would you do it?

It's fun to imagine Saylor in his Bathrobe mashing buy on 1k lots of bitcoin.  But not only would this take a looooong time but it would BLOW up the price.

I would love to read more about how they actually did it... is that out there somewhere?

Probably Fillippone's thread captures some of the contemporary discussions of various MSTR BTC acquisition strategies as they were unfolding, including their public disclosures in the early days (some of those public disclosures of the BTC that were bought would involve MSTR purchases, as well as Saylor having had bought a little bit before MSTR bought.. so Saylor might have described some of his own purchases (17k BTC) as a kind of "test case" to make sure the process works.. blah blah blah...

If that Fillippone thread does not contain detailed enough information, there are probably areas in which you (or anyone else) could drill down into the thread links or the links to twitter threads that might end up giving some further details about what happened, to the extent anything might be out there regarding actual disclosures of actually what happened, rather than summaries of what they claimed to have had happened.

MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’

I remember Saylor or someone like that going into some details that created some impressions that he was buying retail like everyone else, but maybe even Saylor's newbie aspect could have been him winging it in terms of just describing the process that coinbase goes through to make sure that the BTC price did not move.  

I never did imagine Saylor doing any of the potentially tedious number of buys himself, but I did imagine some kind of assistant of his engaging in such process, and afterwards, Saylor could review the account transactions to see thousands of transactions.. and sure it is also possible that some Coinbase bots were doing such transactions (and MSTR/Saylor paid a fee for such service), but Saylor embellished a wee bit to vaguely make it seem as if either he or one of his guys was making such transactions.  

I recall in early days, Saylor was publicly expressing a lot of exasperations of amazement in regards to how much liquidity existed in bitcoin in terms of the millions of dollars of BTC that were purchased over a short period of time and the BTC price/market absorbed those purchases without hardly even moving the BTC price.  Of course, he could have been looking at a Coinbase spreadsheet that got sent to him after the transactions were made on his behalf at Coinbase, rather than anything that either he or one of his associates had done.
7012  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2021, 11:27:47 PM
I have been speculating for months (maybe over a year now) that most of the action for bitcoin trade has been happening away from the retail exchanges.  I think most of the big trades are happening on OTC desks.  This is where Microstrategy, and Greyscale et al buy their corn.  It's not like they use Tradeogre... lol.  

I am not saying that you are wrong about these points, and it is even possible that MSTR has changed its ways somewhat, but based on some of its earliest of disclosures in late 2020 (several of them, in fact), I was under the impression that they were engaged in some kind of spot price multiple transactions in order to acquire their bitcoin.

Of course, on a personal level I remain constantly skeptical of representations that seem a bit out of the ordinary or difficult to pull off in reality, but there really is no concrete way to negate a claim that a person is making, such as Michael Saylor's disclosures of having had picked up his BTC (at least the first batch that he described) through a multi-tude of small transactions.  

Another somewhat contradictory claim that Saylor made was that before he began to make his relatively large-ass bitcoin transactions, he put his lil selfie in contact with some people behind the scenes at Coinbase, which also suggested that he might have been getting some special arrangements or the Coinbase folks were helping him out to make sure that he could acquire his initial purchases of personal and company BTC of around 37k BTC (which would been around $370 million), and I cannot imagine any behind the scenes Coinbase (or any other exchange) that would fail/refuse to give some personal attention to someone intending to use their services for that level of initial BTC purchases.

I recall that Saylor said that he could help any other BIG fishies, such as Elon or other executives who were considering converting decent quantities of their company treasuries into bitcoin allocations, to get in touch with the "right" Coinbase peeps to help facilitate such bitcoin acquisitions without moving the BTC price too much.

Of course, it is healthy to take these kinds of representations with a decently-sized grain of salt, while at the same time acknowledging what they are claiming that they did may well likely have some truth to it.

And really what we are seeing cleared out are OG whales and miners backstock that they want to part with.  I have speculated that there has been a LOT of this.  

You are no way any kind of novel character when it comes to various kinds of speculating about OTC transactions taking place for many years.. for sure as long as I have been in the space, and likely longer than that because in the beginning there were hardly any exchanges available anyhow so sometimes there were just side deals with BIG holders.



Early bitcoiners with 4-5 digit holdings are most certainly hedging all kinds of regulatory risk as well as wanting to just go ahead and buy the nice house or diversify into real estate, collectables etc.  While the miners also have back stock, and are willing to sell X amount for either the same sorts of reasons, or for cap-ex stuff.

For sure there are incentives to work off the books, too.. so no one is going to proclaim that bitcoin cannot or should not be used for various kinds of direct transactions, including BIG ASS ones, except perhaps folks who either do not understand bitcoin or are hostile to bitcoin.

I honestly do not think we have seen the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the feedback loop we all know is possible.

Call it whatever you like... supply shock?  Ok.

To the extent that you might be saying that you do not know what the fuck the meaning of supply shock is, then I am with you on that point... but it sounds good, especially in terms of just throwing in some random phrase that helps any of us to appear that we know what the fuck we are talking about. hahahahaha




Tricky , but maybe very very very good for mining.

Maybe you need to 'splain ur lil selfie a wee bit moar better, philip? #nohomo

What you are implying is counter-intuitive.  Are you saying that the anticipation of lower fees will help status quo miners to profit more because such status disincentivizes new entrance from coming into mining?

Seems to me, in and of itself, lower fees means that miners should be less happy, less willing to mine, more likely to create BIGGER operations, less likely to have smaller operations even try to compete for what fees are available (presuming most of the payoff for mining thereby comes from the current 6.25 BTC rewards rather than fees).
7013  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2021, 08:56:33 PM
the noon wall report

Looks good...especially at higher time frames. Setup with flexibility and ready to pivot as needed.

Still strong sentiment and increasing demand are pushing upwards on price as one would expect.

All ahead one third.

dyor

1h


4h

stronghands

Upon deeply assessing the various plusses and minuses contained within the squiggly lines of those two toxicmoxic charts including as much independent analysis that I am able to muster up within my weee wido selfie, I am having trouble concluding anything other than a fairly obvious supply shock that's in-progress of revealing itself.
7014  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2021, 07:42:40 PM
There is also the idea of no correct investment for everyone, so sure some people may end up with some shitcoins in their portfolios based on their circumstances and conclusions about what they believe fits their needs, and for sure I am not advocating shitcoins at all, but I do consider them to be so damned much correlated to bitcoin that it is way the hell better to learn about bitcoin and to get an adequate stake in bitcoin way before even exploring the mostly nonsense of shitcoins, and frequently those individuals who get involved in bitcoin in fairly deep ways will lose interest for shitcoins, not merely based on monetary performance but based on understanding aspects of what differentiates bitcoins from shitcoins.
Many people think that some shitcoins are at lower prices and low Market cap and they could easily get a big chunk of profits from them and allocate more of them or under someone's influence just invested their life savings into such shitcoins and after market dumps the prices crash,whales take out profits and all other lose funds and then blame the market for the same.Bitcoin is best in safe in all terms like prices, decent returns, security and adoption and why can't they see it.
Who cares what people say about shitcoins?  It's not really on topic here to be comparing and contrasting various shitcoins.  It's a slippery slope that does not lead us anywhere

While I agree Bitcoin is king daddy, I won't say that shitcoins have no use.  

I am mostly referring to "in this thread" when I start to become really hostile to any shitcoin discussion that is other than negative.

In other words, if you have nice things to say about various shitcoins, then probably better to take it to some other thread, because the conversation just seems to devolve if we get into comparison/contrasts regarding which shitcoin might happen to be less shitty.. and then what?  we are no longer focused in any other kind of way.

Another thing regular peeps say is that we can talk about race, intellectual superiority, sex/gender, religion, politics, diet (including what who ate for dinner), covid, blah blah blah.. and sure of course we can go all over the place on the various other (nonshitcoin) topics, but they are not likely to devolve into bullshit ideas that attempt to naysay on bitcoin for no reason at all beyond pumping some shitcoin or another.


Shitcoins sole purpose to me is to gain more BTC.  


There are threads about that in this forum, and no need to get into those details here..


I've doubled my Bitcoin stack in the last year by trading BTC/Shitcoin pairs.  

Good for you.. I am glad so far that you are not getting into too many specifics, except for tempting the topic that trading shitcoins is valuable.. which is also a slippery slope area.. because ultimately it you try to talk about it very much at all, then people are going to be tempted into asking you about specifics, and then what?  We are in lalalala  fantasylandia talk.

While I'll never hold a shitcoin longer than a week it has been a nice way for me to stack sats since I wasn't as early to Bitcoin as most others here.

There are ways to stack bitcoin too.. without getting involved in either trading or talking about shitcoins.. .. but anyhow, I have no issues or concerns about people gambling or engaging in various trading tactics to get more bitcoin .. but still seems that there are other threads on this forum in which such topics can be discussed without leading many of us here into temptations of talking about various shitcoins.. rather than attempting to NOT lose our focus on various many topics about dee badger.. or perhaps how many 2x4s or carts of tbones, hookers, lambos and blow you can buy for 0.21BTC?

11 chartbuddys in one page..
that must be a record..

But, but, Chart buddy is important, without a useless repetitive bot to spam the pages we are nothing, the majority have decided that it is so, and the majority is always right, right?
No matter how dumb, right?

You are making some senses Arriemoller.    Wink

Go figure???


Your post is testimony that every single body has an ability to lurn MOAR better...   Shocked

Some peeps just take more time dan udder peeps.

 Tongue Tongue
7015  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2021, 07:25:50 PM


Next move: ditch the bank altogether.

It might not be practical for most bitcoiners yet, but it will be someday relatively soon.

Yes real bitcoiner same to the picture invest low price and profit high and Shitcoiner recipients are the complete keeping opposite thinks.

It is not bad to consider whether bitcoin might happen to be a low price when investing into it, but the first thing is to get the fuck off zero.  So it may well not matter what the BTC price is, if you have no coins, you better get some.

It is better to consider bitcoin as a longer term investment, such as 4 years or longer.. of course, the longer the better.  Of course, if your investment timeline is less than 4 years, then you likely have to be more careful with the amount of your allocation into bitcoin.

We don't really give too many shits about shitcoiners might or might not think in this here thread.

The best thing is happening Truth be told Bitcoin can at least 4 years or more so view some portfolio. You are right that if I do not have bitcoin deposit I will never get very good results but since I love bitcoin I have some bitcoin deposit though it is very small. However, the funny thing is that I have had some of the bad experiences while trading Bitcoin (Maybe I’ve had this kind of bad experience because I’m  new in bitcoin.), I have lost some of Bitcoin and even after that I am confident that Bitcoin is conducive to a better life.

Well, ultimately you are the one who has to figure out both what your accumulation strategy is going to be and how you are going to attempt to maintain a decent amount of your wealth in bitcoin, if that happens to be a goal of yours and you really do believe in bitcoin.

I am not opposed to trading, but way too many people attempt to do it way too soon and way before their BTC portfolios are ready for such.  They also engage in trading with way the hell too much of their stash, including considering the possibility that always should be sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP, and it tends to not be a good strategy to sell bitcoin with the expectation of buying more back at a lower price, and of course, there are exceptions to every rule - especially if you figure out ways to sell small amounts decently high BTC price appreciation periods (on the way up in other words, and without expecting that you are going to be able to buy back at a lower price).

Of course, I have hardly any clues of your personal particulars, Subbir, beyond what small amount of information that you provided, and surely you do not necessarily need to provide too many personal particulars in order that we might be able to attempt to both brainstorm about what your strategy might be or get some ideas about whether others might learn from your sharing of information about your BTC related strategies.

Frequently I discuss the figuring out of your personal finances including how much cashflow that you have coming in, including how much of that you might be able to dedicate towards bitcoin purchases.

Once you establish that amount, then you will be in a better place to engage in your BTC accumulation strategies, which I consider lump sum investing, dollar cost averaging and buying on dips to be the three main categories of consideration.. and selling (including trading) would not be part of such initial strategies.. until you reach a certain accumulation point and/or profits point... and for sure, some guys just have very strong inclinations to try to trade and gamble with their strategies, so of course, you have to find a balance that works for you even through I personally believe that it is problematic to be fucking around too much with trying to time ups and downs until you have already gotten to a decently good BTC accumulation level largely based on the three buying strategies that I just mentioned.

If you want to continue with these considerations or even start a new thread, Subbir, then I don't mind going into more details of my thoughts on these kinds of matters, and sure there are guys with seemingly differing views, so of course it is going to make a difference if you have $12k available to you for BTC investing or $120, and having more value gives you more options, but it also can create some dilemmas too in regards to what to do... I frequently like to discuss a hypothetical person who might have $6k available now, and another $6k that comes available over the next 6 months, which can give some kind of concrete perspectives using fairly reasonably divisible amounts, and of course, anyone reading or participating in such discussion could use such numbers to attempt to adjust up or down both in regards to what s/he could do or to come to discretionary determinations regarding what kinds of strategies better fit his/her finances and his/her psychology.
7016  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2021, 05:02:01 PM
funnyfiveminutes again enjoying myself  Grin no! I think I don`t got a massive alcohol problem...



Both gold and silver have a lot of debasement issues .. so even if less manipulated than dollars, they both still suffer from quite a bit of manipulation.. and I doubt we are in a good place to be getting into those battles here, like we have over the years, at least in respect to both gold and how much superior bitcoin is to gold, which is becoming more and more apparent.. even looking at relative price actions of bitcoin versus gold markets..

Bitcoin is the soundest money that we have to the extent that soundness and honesty might be equivalent in terms of the underlying systems.. but another thing about bitcoin is that there is not really any need to attempt to moralize matters in terms of who is using bitcoin because anyone can use it, and it is also built upon a lot lesser needs to trust.. trust minimized people say...

In other words.. fuck gold and silver.. except maybe as a back up once you have established your bitcoin position.. and sure if you are already into gold/silver but not into bitcoin, then there is just a matter of figuring out how much (if not all of it) of your gold and silver positions to shave off and to allocate those amounts into bitcoin.  

For example, with gold, bitcoin is currently priced at a wee bit less than 1/10 of the market cap of gold, but any kind of fair and introspective assessment of where we are at in current times, we should fairly easily appreciate that bitcoin has at least 100x to 1,000x the value of gold, so it could take a few more cycles for bitcoin's to get there, but of course, those kinds of fair assessments should highlight that gold/silver are not likely to do very well compared to bitcoin, even if they might be able to hold value relative to fiat.. perhaps? perhaps?

I´m not invested in gold or silver but Bitcoin  Cool so, totally agreeing 2 your statement! this was a pic from a now closed but then famous BTC-location in Berlin... kind of a place, where 2 beer and 1 whiskey just taste a lil better  Grin

https://www.google.com/search?q=room77&client=firefox-b-d&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi8yujwiNnyAhXSsKQKHZGbAN0Q_AUoA3oECAEQBQ&biw=1920&bih=899

Actually, I do appreciate how a current business in mainstream circles would end up attempting to equate bitcoin with gold and silver because many people have hardly any clue about what bitcoin is, and it is probably likely that gold and silver would be better explanatory accuracies rather than suggesting bitcoin to be something like master card or visa.. even though bitcoin is seeming to get more of those master card and visa functionalities through further developments of the lightning network.

For sure, it is going to take a decent amount of time to both get bitcoin to sink into the heads of the masses of normies, and even some folks who invest into bitcoin do not really understand or appreciate some of the deeper aspects of bitcoin.. and I am not going to exclude myself from the ignorant either, even though many of us longer-term bitcoiners can appreciate that there may well be a considerable amount of knowledge differences between some of us who have been following the space for longer periods, and surely we can see that even some of the quick-study folks, such as Michael Saylor may be working through some of the learning curve aspects in a public way (and of course, I am not the first to make such an observation) - and not even saying that some of us long-termers are smarter than Saylor either, but there are varying perspectives and emphases and even disagreements about what parts of bitcoin deserve emphasis or discussion..

...and surely some of the differences of opinion, perspectives and knowledge of those who are attempting to study bitcoin in detail will lead to various attempts at improving aspects of bitcoin through its growth - and not even saying that we need to presume bitcoin to be broken in any kind of way in order to presume that bitcoin will likely grow in various ways or develop in various ways that might be beyond what is currently knowable (even though variations of the future can be hypothesized and speculated), but surely growth of bitcoin is not necessarily going to be ossified, even if there are likely going to be some aspects of bitcoin that are conceptually changeable (such as its fixed supply) that seem theoretically changeable would be nearly impossible to change in actual practice.. ..

There are other aspects of bitcoin like that too in terms of some aspects of bitcoin might be more ossified than other aspects.
7017  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2021, 03:25:45 PM
funnyfiveminutes again enjoying myself  Grin no! I think I don`t got a massive alcohol problem...



Having gold/silver in your sign seems off topic at best and a dig at bitcoin if interpreted more deeply.

In other words, both gold and silver have a lot of debasement issues .. so even if less manipulated than dollars, they both still suffer from quite a bit of manipulation.. and I doubt we are in a good place to be getting into those battles in this here thread, like we have over the years, at least in respect to both gold and how much superior bitcoin is to gold, which is becoming more and more apparent.. even looking at relative price actions of bitcoin versus gold markets.. over the years and likely into the future..

Bitcoin is the soundest money that we have to the extent that soundness and honesty might be equivalent in terms of the underlying systems.. but another thing about bitcoin is that there is not really any need to attempt to moralize matters in terms of who is using bitcoin because anyone can use it, and it is also built upon a lot lesser needs to trust.. trust minimized people say...

In other words.. fuck gold and silver.. except maybe as a back up once you have established your bitcoin position.. and sure if you are already into gold/silver but not into bitcoin, then there is just a matter of figuring out how much (if not all of it) of your gold and silver positions to shave off and to allocate those amounts into bitcoin.  

For example, with gold, bitcoin is currently priced at a wee bit less than 1/10 of the market cap of gold, but any kind of fair and introspective assessment of where we are at in current times, we should fairly easily appreciate that bitcoin has at least 100x to 1,000x the value of gold, so it could take a few more cycles for bitcoin's market cap to get there, but of course, those kinds of fair assessments should highlight that gold/silver are not likely to do very well (relatively speaking) compared to bitcoin, even if each or both might be able to hold value relative to fiat.. perhaps? perhaps?
7018  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 30, 2021, 02:51:14 PM


Next move: ditch the bank altogether.

It might not be practical for most bitcoiners yet, but it will be someday relatively soon.

Yes real bitcoiner same to the picture invest low price and profit high and Shitcoiner recipients are the complete keeping opposite thinks.

It is not bad to consider whether bitcoin might happen to be a low price when investing into it, but the first thing is to get the fuck off zero.  So it may well not matter what the BTC price is, if you have no coins, you better get some.

It is better to consider bitcoin as a longer term investment, such as 4 years or longer.. of course, the longer the better.  Of course, if your investment timeline is less than 4 years, then you likely have to be more careful with the amount of your allocation into bitcoin.

We don't really give too many shits about shitcoiners might or might not think in this here thread.

not sure nevertheless bitcoin up 70000$ next week in case market not crashed for bad news.

Ask Phillip how that "bitcoin $70k next week" prediction series went.

11 chartbuddys in one page..
that must be a record..

Hadn't noticed until you mentioned it.

ok chartbuddy we get it, youre lonely

so heres a spacer before the Wall Observer becomes the Chart Buddy Observer

man CB will get delusions of grandeur soon if this keeps up.

Fair point.

+1 WO merit - courtesy of toxicmoxic

there is no way my contrarian soul would get away without wearing my Monero shirt, ......

Shame on you for even thinking it.    Angry Angry Angry

-1 WO merit for that poorly thought out (muddied thinking) idea-er.  - you gotta thank toxicmoxic for this one, too

Monero shirt........you could just say "oh, this is my privacy shirt, I have a bitcoin shirt, but yanno, OPSEC."

That's about the only thing such shirt would be good for, except if they happened to have one of those Texas cold spell / energy outages, then it might make good fireplace fuel as a second option.
7019  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 29, 2021, 08:13:29 PM
Is that your own gif, NIZZAONE?

yeah, had my funnyfiveminutes already  Grin

Surely not a bad piece.. even though I did not see any hamster contained within.. or even in the peripheries.
7020  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 29, 2021, 08:02:24 PM
hamster in a wheel
gon' send him to outer space
never will come down



pls 4 give me  Grin

Is that your own gif, NIZZAONE?
Pages: « 1 ... 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 [351] 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 ... 1525 »
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!