I understand that people could have invested in bitcoin in the early days.. but personally, I am starting to consider that it might be a wee bit unfair to be comparing bitcoin's price performance from those pre-2013 years...

But, of course even if we use later dates as a reference point, bitcoin still beats gold hands down, and it is quite likely that bitcoin is going to continue to beat gold for many years to come.

Some people believe that bitcoin is 100x or 1,000x better than gold, and I cannot really dispute those kinds of claims, even though currently the market price of bitcoin is about 7%-10% the size of gold's market cap, so yeah, it should be pretty easy to reach parity with gold's market cap in this cycle or the next cycle, and maybe even those greater numbers of 10x, 100x, and 1,000x gold's market cap after a few more cycles.. should be doable.




Of course.. bitcoin in likely going to continue to have great relative performance, and of course, we do not have guarantees.. but many of us surely do recognize bitcoin to continue to be a great investment, relatively speaking..   



Fair enough, but I doubt that we ONLY need to look at performance.. because in the short-term there might be products (or shitcoins or crypto projects) that outperform BTC.. .. and bitcoin is the leader of the sector.. including the paradigm shifting technology that the others are trying to imitate.. and largely snake oil salesmen.. so sure, some of us can recognize such difference.. but does not necessarily mean that some of the others might not be pumped more than bitcoin...



Of course, if we look at portability, divisibility, verifiability and even costs in holding and transacting, bitcoin should be appreciated as quite superior to gold.. and time will likely continue to show that.. even though bitcoin is less shiny.. but isn't shiny overrated, at least in terms of storage of value properties?


Gresham's law


Hm?  not sure about your point, ImThour.

This is by far the most merited thread on the forum... and has been that way for a long time (ever since the merit system went into place in early 2018), so I am not sure about what is your concern, exactly.

If members here are posting in order to attempt to receive merit, and if peeps who have smerit want to send them smerit for their post, then so be it... no?  Sure, sometimes some of us sending smerits might sometimes regret sending some smerits to some members.. but what we going to do?  Do we need to receive better education regarding what might be a meritable post (somewhat subjective, no?) ? 

which maybe educating some of us is what you are wanting to do, ImThour, no?

Furthermore, yes some pandering seems to take place in this thread and in other parts of the forum, as well, but if there might be some kind of abuse that some members should not be sending smerits, then maybe report that conduct, no?  not that I am trying to encourage reporting for the sending of smerits. because there is nothing against the rules in forum members trying to receive smerits, but there might be some thing against the rules if merit sources are abusive of their sending of smerits .. such as seeking compensation for sending smerits.. even though the current standards do seem to give quite a bit of discretion to merit sources, absent if you can identify some kind of high level of abuse that might be going on...

In any event, members seeking the receipt of smerits seems to be a feature of the current forum merit system, not a bug.. at least from my understanding...   

Maybe you could either outline your concerns a wee bit MOAR better or perhaps send a PM to any source member who you believe might be bordering on problematic smerit sending behaviors.. buy the way, regular members don't really have restrictions regarding how they send their smerits.. well not the same level as merit sources (and not that merit sources have a lot of restrictions either, absent abuse categories that I already mentioned).

I am not questioning your opinion... I am asking you to provide a link to the quote that you provided in your earlier post..

If you quote something in your post, then you should provide a source in order that forum members know from where you got your quote.  Do you have a link for that quote?

Thanks for the warning.. you are likely so helpful for us guys who might not have much BTC experiences..  I am glad that we have a seemingly insightful chart-reading fella like ur lil selfie giving us some "heads-up" so we are not caught without awareness regarding the potential peril we might otherwise find ourselves.

Anyhow, are you saying that maybe we might want to buy a few more of the lillie fiends, and maybe we might not be seeing any more sub $40k BTC prices, ever again?  Just asking for a friend about what might be the most prudent of ways forward.

There's no dispute.  We are going by your version of events.  You asserted that you lost all your bitcoin in MTGOX (supposedly), and then you said that you had not bought any bitcoin, and I cannot recall exactly your likely lame reason.. seems like it was a kind of dumbass disgruntled reason (you were not even claiming lack of finances in your first version of events), so the punchline still remains that you failed/refused to get exposure to bitcoin, even though if you were to have had bitcoin on MTGOX until early 2014, then the presumption is that you knew about bitcoin, so you did not even haven any valid excuse, such as you did not know any better.

You seemed to have been too busy blaming others and failing refusing to take responsibility for your own preparations for the future.  Just consider if you had invested as little as $2,500 into bitcoin, you could have had 10BTC.  Nothing to sneeze at, and sure, maybe we could not have expected you to time the bottom, so maybe your average per BTC could have been $400 per BTC rather than $250 per BTC... yet in any event, you could have had several BTC for just a few thousand dollars.

Are you actually trying to proclaim that you did the "right thing" by failing and refusing to buy bitcoin for 7 years and blaming that failure/refusal on Gox? Yes, sure at various points in the subsequent 7 years (or the past 7 years) your cost per BTC would have been a lot higher, but your recent complaining about BTC being too high in the $10k price arena would still have gotten you a 3x to 6.5x return (and currently about 4x return, as I type this post).  So you are still failing and refusing to buy BTC?  You are just engaged in ongoing begging, instead (not that you even come off as a believable or sympathetic character in terms of your supposed story or need for handouts)?

By the way, in recent times, you are seeming to be a "bitcoin believer" but seems that your whole history of adamantly keeping ur lil selfie as a no coiner was likely to have been considerably based on your lack of even believing in the upside potential of bitcoin, and now that you see BTC prices around  160x of their 2015 prices (of $250), you may well be starting to believe that there might be some merit in the bullish case for bitcoin.. yet probably one of the most prudent things that you should be doing right now is just stocking away whatever quantity that you are able to do, such as $100 per month or whatever might be manageable to you, and sure it could take you a while to build a decently sized BTC stash, but you should be going by your budget and if you could afford to invest more than $100 per month without short-supplying your cashflow and your basic needs, then that could be a good thing to do also, merely become a bit more aggressive in your investment into BTC approach.. and work your way up.. and even with that, those people who are currently starting out in bitcoin and choosing to invest $100 per month or something like that are likely going to be quite a bit ahead of normies in 10 years from now.  

Just consider if you had just stuck to a relatively prudent investment strategy that started around 7 years ago and invested $25 per week, then by now, you would have invested $9,150 into BTC and you would have acquired a bit more than 10 BTC (which would have a value of nearly $400k - based on our current nearly $40k BTC prices), so your whole BTC investment portfolio would have been doing pretty good with around 41x in profits.. surely nothing to sneeze at, and part of the reason why DCA buying into BTC has been such a great way for people of relatively modest means to end up doing quite well with their BTC investment and especially so if they keep up the DCAing strategy into BTC for a decently long period of time... the longer the better.

Even if newbies into bitcoin might not get the same results as earlier investors on the same timeline, there remains no reason to believe that such DCA'ing system does not remain a great way to go forward, especially if they are just investing extra cashflow as it comes available to them, whether it would be once a week or once month or some other somewhat regular and consistent time intervals.

We already covered that topic, you dweeb.

Blame MTGOX for your failure and refusal to buy BTC... classical disgruntled no coiner move.   

Also, failure/refusal to take responsibility for your own lack of preparation for UPpity. Hard to feel sorry for you.


These must be dire times, and too bad the fun stuff has been removed from the list.

 

Personally, on the upside of the BTC price range, I think that the number is higher than your consideration of $41k-$42k.. .and should be more like $46k.. but hey, it is difficult to really know, except to speculate regarding how much is enough to really "break out of the range."... I suppose also that I am picking $46k because then there seems to be a decent amount of break above the range.. rather than as likely to get sucked back in.. but hey, my number is not much more than a guess either.


Some peeps don't believe that we are in a bull market.

Some peeps have concluded that 56% price corrections (and perhaps other factors) do not happen in a bull market.

For sure, you OOM can appreciate that I have been quite disinclined to conclude that we are in a bear market, but surely, part of the reason that so many shorts got reckt in recent days is because there seems to have been a wee bit jumping to conclusions about our supposedly being in a bear market.. so there are a decent number of folks who are also considering the existence of such a current "bear market" status.


Seems like I learn something new every day, especially when trying to keep up with the WO contents...

Accordingly, whoazza!! - I had not realized (non mi rendevo conto) that "Italian stallions" had such difficulties walking in a straight line. (There is probably a reason for that... #nohomo)  Go figure?

$46k happens to be the number that I am looking at too, in terms of confirming that our $28,600 bottom is "in."  I have little desire to presume that I know shit regarding whether we will get above $46k in the near future, but I expect that I will feel some additional confidence regarding the bottom for this particular correction...   The situation seems to be "pending", no?  I am still not going to presume.. I have seen too many fake outs in the past, so I hate to prematurely presume too much.



I agree.  It's not looking too good for them at the moment.

But maybe, like dumb and dumber, they can still appreciate that there is "still a chance."

hahahaha

In any event, I would expect that it would suck to be part of dumb and dumber like hope.

By the way, my own personal little fantasy (or would it be like a mini wet dream, regarding the short-term?) would be to see this BTC price run take us to $50k or perhaps $51k, and then correct down to $41k.. and then figure out what is going to happen from there.... Surely, it is really hard to know what is going to happen, but it does seem that we currently have some UPpity momentum - while at the same time, experience likely shows a lot of us that in bitcoinlandia what appears to be momentum can reverse at any time... and without notice -  even though there are going to be some sorcerer-type peeps (or wannabes) who proclaim that they see what is going to happen in BTC prices before it happens, even though many times I have seen that when all is said and done, the odds of getting short-term BTC price predictions correct tend to not be much better than 50/50... so may as well flip a coin rather than assigning high probabilities to what any of us might "think is going to happen" regarding short-term BTC price movements.

For sure, sometimes I do NOT want to get into too many personal details regarding whether I might now ONLY be playing with house money or if there might be some kind of average cost per BTC that might be worth proclaiming.

In recent times, I have been gravitating towards using an average cost of $1k per BTC - as a kind of short-hand easy way to approximate cost per BTC and also profits.. but for artistic or even argumentative purposes, I may even want to tweak my theoretical average cost per bitcoin up or down in order to merely attempt to make some kinds of points that fairly could be reflective a lot of versions of me (or people who may have entered into bitcoin at similar times as me and likely gotten similar - or variations of the performance that I have actually achieved personally - and again, my personal specifics might not really be that relevant regarding if my average cost per BTC happens to be $500, $750, $1k, $1,500 or some variation of any of those.. but surely, I don't really mind using $1k as a kind of way of making general ballpark points that are still pretty damned accurate in the whole scheme of things.

Also, even though I attempt to present myself somewhat consistently, over the years, any observer (even including my lil selfie) should be able to appreciate that I have had some changes in my perspectives in terms of how I present factors that should be considered based on factors that I am trying to consider... so probably there can be some value in having had gone through some experiences, attempted to articulate various perspectives in this forum (this thread) and in other places and attempted to learn by going through those considerations and reconsiderations.

So, yeah, none of us should be attempting to get too far ahead of ourselves ion terms of trying to figure out if there might be some kind of individual tweak that we might need to make... to what we are actually doing or what we are planning to do and what we consider to be important relevant factors for our own way of contemplating the matter - and I still have to say that if I use $1k as a kind of ballpark consideration for my average cost per BTC, I also feel that there is something also that remains stuck in my consideration framework in regards to $5k BTC prices... that's a 5x return, and should I not resist getting stymied into doing whatever the fuck with my bitcoin so long as I have at least profits, and for sure 5x or more in profits should cause me hardly any inhibition in terms if I feel some kind of desire to cash out some value here and there in order to get something that I want... I should not have any guilt, right?  Again, that would be 5x or higher for profits.

One of my own potentially problematic areas is that I have decided to allow for a kind of moving goal post to not get stuck on a $5k price because with the passage of time, that $5k just starts to look unreasonably too low - especially in the past 7 months or so.  So, since I started to consider that it would be unrealistic for me to be getting caught up too much upon a stagnant price, I started to consider the 208-week moving average as my new floating amount of BTC price that I should not feel any kinds of hesitation at all if I am selling BTC so long as the BTC price is at least above the 208-week moving average.  Accordingly, in about March 2020, the 208-week moving average was around $5k, but in current times, the 208-week moving average is just below $14k...   So, I am not sure if I am being practical or not, and if push comes to shove, and BTC prices were to crash below the 208-week moving average, but it still was above $5k, might I still rationalize my way into selling some BTC if for some reason I had some perceptions of real world needs?  I am thinking that I would, and in that regard, I would not be really selling BTC based on any kind of panic or anything like that, but instead, I would be selling based on some kind of real world need that I might have (whether that is an emergency situation in which I have lost access to all other cashflow sources or some other kind of less than preferable situation).

So what I am suggesting is that even though in seemingly non emergency situations, I can probably use the 208-week moving average as a guide for making sure that I am NOT selling below that point, but at the same time, I should not feel guilty if I sell some BTC so long as the BTC price is above that 208-week moving average price.  

So I have been creating these kinds of frameworks for myself and my perception of my own circumstances (and of course, attempting to share such frameworks in my discussions of BTC strategies), while at the same time attempting to modify my perspectives in regards to the frameworks that I end up considering imposing on myself (while at the same time appreciating that I have full discretion over myself and over whatever I do, including if I were to choose to override my own frameworks).  

So currently, I am thinking that the 208-week is my perception of a BTC price bottom in a bear market (which again is currently just below $14k), and my current perception of a BTC price bottom in a bull market is to use the 104-week moving average, which is currently just below $21k... and surely, currently, I consider that we are most likely in a bull market and not in a bear market.


For sure any of us can get excited about various material things (goods or services), and sure there might be some objective value in terms of your consumption preferences, but in the end, I doubt that any of the objective considerations matter as much as how you might determine the value... so for sure, no need to justify regarding your level of cccccciittttttteeeee, if any, that you are either getting or expecting to get from your BTC transaction (you sell out!!!!!!   ).. hahahahahaha



For sure, some of us might establish a kind of sell window.. so let's say that I want to get $5k in the next two weeks, then I might sell $2.5k right away, and attempt to be strategic about selling the other $2.5k maybe in two or three batches.  There certainly remains quite a bit of discretion, and it must feel a whole hell of a lot better to shave some BTC off if the BTC is going up rather than if it is going down.. but sure, in any event, there still can be some difficulties in determining if you should just sell all right away or try to be strategic about the matter, because sometimes trying to be strategic could end up backfiring too, if the BTC price trend of UPpity all of a sudden reverses... so who knows?  who knows? especially regarding the short-term.


You have been in bitcoin about a half of a year or so longer than me, and I did not really tell anyone (in my real life) about my buying into bitcoin for the first 8-9 months or so, as I was buying and as the price had dropped from $1,163 to sub $400s, so my BTC average price was probably nearly about $600 when I started to tell people about bitcoin in late 2014, and the BTC price was sub $400 (about $385 as I recall specifically).  

Anyhow, so many people either ignored me completely or outright poo poo-ed my sharing of such "insight", and just consider that some of those people might have spent their next year investing in stocks, or gold or houses or whatever, and if they had just taken a few thousand dollars (let's say $5k) and put it into bitcoin in either late 2014 or almost any time in 2015 (let's say that they ended up with an average cost of $400 per coin, which would have gotten them about 12.5 BTC ($5k/$400) (which, by the way, would NOT be very unrealistic at all since for the vast majority of 2015, the BTC price was in the mid $200s), in these days, they would have been able to UP their level of consumption like drunken sailors and sure if they had spent (or assessed the value of) their 12.5 BTC at the $64,895 top, they would have had $811k, but still who cares?  They still would have been balling, even if they only were to spend (or assess) their BTC value at $35k - which still would have been $437.5k... .. so yeah, shave a bit off, who cares, there is a lot of profits in there from a hypothetical $5k investment in 2014/2015 (and of course, strawbs, your timeline is earlier than mine or the Bitcoin knowledge that I had attempted to share with several of my friends/relative in late 2014).

I don't disbelieve anything that you are saying here, Kiley33, but really think about the matter, you should be providing a link or describe your source for your above quote.  I presume that it is some "official" Grayscale announcement no?

In other words, link or it did not happen.

Yeah, but I am not really trying to either describe any kind of expectation of what guys should be doing in their 20-30s or what guys might end up doing.  My main purpose in going along with your 20-30 year old hypothesis was to attempt to thereafter describe a kind of investment timeline based on average life expectations, and so perhaps if many things seem to be going somewhat regularly and no real advantages or disadvantages for some normie in his/her 20-30s then probably it is best to consider a kind of approximation of what the span of that lifetime might be.

As soon as anyone knows, recognizes and/or understands some personalized differentiation factors, then of course, that person would be most prudent to attempt to account for the personalized differentiation factors rather than attempting to apply some cookie-cutter mold to his/her own situation.

So, yeah, we can start to consider or hypothesized with some default considerations and then for sure, once anyone attempts to get to know each individual, there are likely to be ways in which the person has individual circumstances that need to be taken into account (I am not saying that there does not exist any average joe blow because the average joe blow likely exists, too).

Seems to me that the vast majority of normie peeps do not really make any kinds of solid progress in establishing a decently strong investment portfolio in their 20s, and sure of course, there are some normie peeps who do inherit (or maybe otherwise receive) a decent amount of value while in their 20s, and in those circumstances they might well be put into a position in which they have possible opportunities to invest or to learn how to invest (and hopefully without fucking things up too much).  I am also considering my own circumstances. I did not have any kind of inheritance or anyone giving me money, but I did have some fortune in being able to have pretty regular work and college attendance during my 20s (which usually takes away from abilities to earn money in the short term), so when I look back at my 20s, I see a decent amount of lackings in actually building up my investment portfolio, even though I did believe that I was attempting to make reasonable efforts in that direction.

So without getting into the cases of the large windfall situations, if we are going to presume that there are some in their 20s folks who are both kind of getting their shit together in their 20s and also able to make some meaningful progress during that time, then perhaps they may well be exceptions rather than the norm.. and maybe even financial foundations do not tend to really start to get some kind of build until folks start to get into their 30s and there might begin to be some expectations that they need to make some progress in building their finances... perhaps perhaps?  (sure, quite a bit of speculating going on here because there is likely going to be a decent amount of individual variations).



Oh gawd...    

Hey Wind_FURY, I don't mean to be picking on you too much, but seems to me that you have a lot of tendencies to get caught up with the short-term BTC price momentum and then presume that once the BTC price momentum starts, it is going to continue in that same direction.. It is like a common identifiable characteristic that you seem to have.. sorry to say.

Consider this:
When we were above $50k, you were soon asserting that the BTC price was "never" going below $50k again.  When we got into the lower $30s you were proclaiming that we were doomed to go down into oblivion.  Now, we get a wee bit of a blip to the upside in the BTC price, and you are proclaiming that the "market is telling us" something about the price going UPpity?    

I have a hard time believing that we can make those kinds of short-term BTC price direction assertions (proclamations) much beyond 55/45 if we are referring to short-term BTC price moves; however, we might be able to zoom out and put some credence in seemingly currently valid longer term BTC price prediction models, but still those longer term BTC price prediction models hardly tell us shit about the shorter timelines and the BTC price moves that might take place within the shorter timelines - that can have the BTC price going all over the place, and likely there is some purpose in that from some of the market-makers who are able to cause a reversal in the BTC price, then they will do it.. but sometimes even the usual market-makers will find their lil selfies on the wrong side of a trade because they believe that they can manipulate the BTC price (for example DOWNity) and then they are no longer able to keep the BTC price down.. which is a kind of loss of control of the situation and they might lose their asses off if they are not sufficiently hedged and if they are putting too many resources in one BTC price direction rather than the other...

None of us can really be sure when those BTC price breaks are going to come (including to the UPside), but frequently we can identify them after they had happened to the extent that we know what to look for and we are not getting too distracted and deluded by other nonsense theories (or views of the facts) about what had happened.

Sure, if you have BTC and you are greatly in profits, then it is good to shave some BTC off along the way, and so I have no problem with that.

I do have a bit of a problem to provide some kind of global assertion that this is the time to be selling, after we had a 56% price correction and we happen to be currently bouncing around in about a 40% price correction zone and likely in a bull market.

So, sure each of us might have our own conclusions, and some of us might believe that the bullrun for this cycle is over.. so there might be some erroneous and some good reasons to sell, and some folks might have come to a realization that they have not sold any BTC for 6-8 years or whatever, so those folks would  likely come to differing conclusions regarding whether there is any need to time the market in terms of their shaving off some profits here and there.. and so there is likely no real blanket answer regarding what to do exactly.. .

For example guys like me, have been selling small amounts all the way up from $250 to $64,895, so in the last couple of months I have been buying way the fuck more than selling, merely based on BTC's recent price price direction, so of course, if I bought all the way down to $28,600, then my system already allows me to have been selling on the way up.. but my amounts are only meant as kinds of systematic maintenance rather than feeling any kind of emotional or financial need to take some value off the table due to overly deferring gratification... so yeah, if someone (such as yourself, perhaps? strawbs) has failed/refused to take profits all along, then you may well not be in a very good position in terms of suggesting that now is a better time to do it rather than some guys who might not be in the same place as you.

By the way, personally, in about late April, I did enter into some various kinds of contracts that do cause me to have to have more cash available than what I would usually have needed to have, and largely I had been considering to NOT change any aspects of BTC management systems that I already have in place, but the BTC's price performance ended up largely moving against me by the time I made some tweaks to my system in terms of moving funds around - so sure, with me, there has also been some juggling, but I deny cashing out any extra BTC (at least not so far), and so far, I have just been moving funds around.. but NOT really in preferable conditions when we had the BTC price correct by 56% during that time.

At some point, I will probably provide some additional details regarding what I did (or what I am in the midst of doing), but surely I do not want to say too much while the process is still playing out...



That would be a pretty damned low price for two pizzas, and I am not even saying that it might not be reachable in the next 30-50 years.  I would be surprised if we were to reach such a price earlier than 30 years... given that two pizzas currently cost about 128,041 sats (converting the above BTC price to sats)...

Just think about the matter, hi-tech..

Let's say that we are able to move the decimal over one place every BTC cycle (which seems way too ambitious).. so then the price of two pizzas might play out like this:

2021 128,041 Sats

2025 12,804.1 Sats

2029 1,280.41 Sats

2033 128.041 Sats

2037 12.8041 Sats

That seems to be too ambitious to me, so maybe we should double the number of cycles for each magnitude, so then it would look more like this.

2021 128,041 Sats

2029 12,804.1 Sats

2037 1,280.41 Sats

2045 128.041 Sats

2053 12.8041 Sats

More reasonable?  Perhaps?  perhaps?  Still seems a wee bit ambitious, even to get two pizzas at 13 sats in 2053-ish.  Good to have high aspirations though, no?

I am not sure what my disposition has to do with anything substantive regarding my comments.... focus, copetech.. focus.


Perhaps that's part of the problem.. You are acting like you know the price direction and trying to show yourself as some kind of knows better than everyone else.  Is that it?


You are getting distracted about details, and my earlier post had more to do with newbie status including that BTC accumulation goals should be the direction to go rather than trying to proclaim you know the short term BTC direction in advance.  None of us know those kinds of things beyond just having some ideas about probabilities and price pressures (or momentum) that seem to exist in either direction.. so sure, any of us can proclaim that we saw around a $5k BTC price increase in less than 3 hours and another.. $1k additional ($6k in total) in the following 18 hours to thereby witness a $6k price increase in less than 24 hours. ... I am excited I am excited.. nothing wrong with that.

If you are a newbie who proclaims to be interested in preparing for fuck you status, and you even said (after you got distracted by shitcoin nonsense and then apparently said that you were interested in BTC) that you and your wife had something like a 20-year investment timeline.. so I hardly understand why you seem to have little to no ability to stay focused on BTC accumulation, in the event that you had some initial goals about BTC accumulation - so yes, I am responding to the factual situation that you present rather than your personal particulars, it is only that your BIG ass proclamations do not really seem to very well match with what are supposedly your goals, so if you have some kind of ability to pay attention to the points that I made, rather than getting distracted in regards to my supposed mood, then you might be able to direct your response a wee bit MOAR better.. without so many emotions in the process.


That's good.  You have been in bitcoin for a couple of months and you are proclaiming to have developed a  fool proof system, merely because you have been profitable so far?


Sure.. nothing wrong with that.


I doubt that anyone is requesting that you show proof, at least not so far... If you start to make outrageous claims then you might be requested to show some proof.

In any event, usually it is not really necessary to show proof in order to talk about some things that at you u are doing and to suggest that you have developed a good system.. I suppose when you are starting to solicit customers, then that might become problematic, so you have not really done that yet, beyond making some implications that you might have some great ideas in which you believe that you might be able to perform beyond regular DCA practices or beyond mere buy and HODL practices.

Wonder, if you are guaranteeing your system yet?


Seems like you are repeating the same ideas that I just mentioned.

So, yeah of course, if a certain amount of your investment into BTC is dependent upon cashflow as it comes in, then you are going to be able to accumulate more BTC if the BTC price stays down.. Of course, if you had some lump sum that you were holding and waiting for more down, then you might begin to feel uncomfortable if the BTC price is going UP rather than sideways or down... nothing really surprising or unusual about those kinds of assessments.


You have some kind of need to be right about something?  Which way is the BTC price going from here smartie pants?

By the way, I am not sure what you are referring to when you use the expression of "$40k supports"?

Most of the time when people refer to "support" they are referring to the price on the way down (which is a lower price than the current price)... so for example, at this particular time, I could say that the BTC price met resistance in the lower $40ks (at $40,581 as the local top), but after a inter-day correction, there seemed to have been a show of support ion the lower to mid $36ks (especially since the BTC price did not go below $36,386).

In any event, if I read your above assertion in context, it appears that you are referring to $40k "resistance" (rather than "support"), to the extent that there might currently be resistance in that $40k price area.



Again, your statement comes off as confusing because we are talking about BTC here, and on a personal investment level, BTC can be used to be able to help in reaching fuck you status for people who are contemplating ways to attempt to use BTC in that regard.  If you have some other ideas, then it probably would be helpful for you to explain so we know what the fuck you are talking about.

I provided a hypothetical goal of reaching $2 million in principle as being a kind of entry level fuck you status, and for sure, people re going to come to differing assessments of where that entry level might be.  I was just using that as an example in order to attempt to treat the discussion in concrete ways rather than not having any references or throwing out amorphous and ill-defined goals.  

Anyhow, I have heard that moving of the goal post claims before when members just want to devolve into nonsense talk and fail refuse to clarify what they are talking about.


I suppose that there is nothing wrong with that, but these days some people do use debt to fuel their ability to leverage or magnify other investments, and sometimes people will never get ahead if they do not have capital to invest and that is part of the rationale for using debt.  For example, if you ONLY are able to make a minimum wage and you never really invest in appreciating assets, then you might find that you never get ahead, but sure, if you already own your own home in full at least you are not without any assets..



Sure, living within your means is a good thing, but one man's waste is another man's enjoyment, so hopefully you are not depriving ur lil selfie too much in terms of enjoying some consumption beyond ramen.


Sounds  like everything a guy could wish for.  #nohomo


You are gambling with your approach to BTC?  Is that what you would like to say?


Now, you seem to purposefully be playing dumb, no?.. which is probably just you reacting emotionally to a statement rather than focusing on what was said/meant.


Again, you have been in BTC for about 2 months and you proclaim to have a system that works?  Strange assertion, no?


You say that we are going up from here?  Hopefully, you are a bit more prepared than for merely one direction.. but whatever.. do what you are going to do.


You are interpreting my comments, questions and clarifications as "whining"?  I have no reason at all to whine - except I suppose if a member appears to be acting like he is a bitcoin expert after learning about it for two months, then maybe that bothers me a wee  bit, so sure call that whining if you must.



I suppose there could be some value in proclaiming where the BTC price might be going in the coming hours, days or weeks, but many of us here know that the BTC price can go in a lot of directions in a short period of time, so sure, you might be right and you might end up being wrong, but hard to know what value that brings in terms of newbie copetech trying to show that he has some kind of short-term BTC price sorcery abilities.. and of course, you would not be the first WO member who proclaims to have such powers, until they don't. hahahahha

Were you planning on plotting out your track record, or did you merely want some of us to defer to your sorcery prowess so long as you continue to be correct (according to the assessments of ur lil selfie)


Also, I had noticed that you do seem to get distracted relatively easily.  Accordingly, we do seem to agree upon that observation.  

Why not an update?

I am thinking that even if we were to price each pizza at $25, then two pizzas at our current BTC prices of $39,050 would be about .00128041 BTC for two pizzas.. that is nearly a magnitude (1/10) less than it was in 2017, no?  And, surely we are not done yet, for those of us valuing our wealth in pizzas, there is likely going to continue to be more and more value in terms of pizza purchasing power if we accumulate and HODL our BTC in the coming years.

Sure spend some along the way too, if you don't have anything else to spend.. but over the long run bitcoin surely has shown itself to be a great storage of value, especially in terms of how much pizza any of us can get with our satoshis.

Let's have a goal of getting off of zero BTC first, and then maybe shoot for 1 million satoshis, then maybe 21 million and then maybe 210 million.. (or perhaps stop off at 100 million first).  We need to try to be realistic in terms of how many satoshis people are going to be able to gather with the passage of time and while bitcoin (satoshis) is continuing to become more and more popular.

In my thinking, the lesson is not necessarily in not spending BTC, but more likely spend and replace your BTC if you are in BTC accumulation mode.. and in accordance with Gresham principles use your other ways of spending before spending your bitcoin.

Lots of last minute desperation...

Sorry for your losses

(not really).  



Well, you better up your game.

Sorry to break the newses that you are going to be MOAR richie, whether you like it or not.



Even though you are suggesting that BTC price moves are based on a variety of factors, then you proclaim that this particular price move is based on "the talk."  Seems as if you are committing the same error that you are striving to suggest that you are not making.

In other words, it is way too prone to error to be trying to proclaim that BTC price moves are pushed because of narrow factors, and mainstream media does this all the time.  Sure, we might have some piece of news that may start to trigger price move in one direction or another, but it is likely better to attempt to figure out more broader reasons, including to consider that if BTC prices have been largely bouncing around in 35% to 55% correction range for a couple of months, and seems that BTC negative sentiment had been building, including the more and more bold stacking of margin shorts, at some point there comes a kind of incentive to force the BTC price UP in order to liquidate some of the margin shorts - and those liquidations can provide more fuel (and incentive to push the BTC price upwards).

Furthermore, if the BTC price has been down for a decently long period of time, there are also likely some folks who have cash sitting on the sidelines, and they are sometimes more than eager to put their money back in, as soon as they witness some kind of breaking out to the UPside.. so there could be a kind of incentive in which momentum causes more momentum, yet whether the momentum is going to run out of steam can be unclear too in terms of how much buying support is keeping up with the price moves up.. and I doubt that "the talk" is going to be enough of an explanatory for whether the time is here to continue UPpity.

And to confirm that we have been in a bull market all along, even if a decent number of folks had been losing confidence in our having had been (still are) in a bull market.  So sure, the loss of confidence can sometimes cause fuel to go UP in bTC price after a certain number of those weak hands have been shaken and perhaps even some losing of confidence that more weak hands are available to be shaken including the conclusion that the easier price direction ends up being UP rather than down.. and how can just "the talk" be enough - even if on the margins to explain such readiness or lack of readiness for the buy support to keep up including a kind of realization that we happen to be in a bull market rather than the erroneous conclusion regarding our supposed bear market status...

Another aspect might be a kind of seeming resolution of some concerns about a mining death spiral, so there are several difficulty periods, including the very last one from a week ago in which there might have been developing some uncertainties regarding the resolution of such ongoing loss of hashpower, but the fact that we ONLY have 3.5 days left in this difficulty period and the hashpower matter seems to be adjusting in the upwards direction (a projection of 3.5% to 4% Up in difficulty as I type this post) and largely showing that bitcoin is likely NOT so vulnerable in the direction of losing hash power and also perhaps some concerns that some kind of state attack could be underway or bitcoin could have become more vulnerable in that direction - causing uncertainty that seems to largely be resolving through a kind of considerable robustedness that is already present in bitcoin but there might be uncertainties until bitcoin is actually put to a kind of extreme test that seems to be showing pretty strong and unambiguous evidence resolving in terms of the ongoing robustedness of our king daddy.  

Why are you wanting to come off as a much BIGGER baller than you likely are?

From my understanding of your situation is that you are largely in a BTC accumulation stage, probably for a decent amount of time into the future... maybe 5 more years or perhaps a couple of BTC cycles (which would be 8 years or more).. what is the rush from your perspective for the BTC price going up?  You are considering selling and playing the up down roulette?

Surely, there are some folks who are early on in their BTC accumulation stage who are wanting to shave off some profits when the BTC price goes up, but very many people who are new to bitcoin (or early in their accumulation stages) and they are attempting to consider bitcoin investment as a long term play, so in that regard, they tend to be quite nervous for the first several years into bitcoin in terms of NOT really wanting to sell much if any of their BTC, even if they might be in profits of 50% or even 100% or more.. and some people even get worried about selling too much BTC after they are 3-5x or even higher level of profits in BTC because they are continuing to consider themselves in BTC accumulating for a several years (at minimum).... in terms of trying to reach certain goals.. and sure, if a guy/gal might have an investment portfolio of $100k to $500k, s/he might want to try to get to $2 million or more in these times before really starting to feel comfortable or cocky.

By the way someone who might be fairly aggressive about bitcoin and has a $100k to $500k investment   in BTC might only have a 10% allocation in bitcoin which is between $10k and $50k - and surely might not be enough to really be considering the BTC allocation to something that they could take for granted... and that is assuming both an aggressive stance such as 10% and also assuming that the investor feels that s/he has reached the 10% allocation levels...

For example, there are a lot of newer investors who might be buying their personal home and buying contributing into a 401k (with employer matching funds) or something like that, and then if their goal is to invest 10% of their income, they might not have much left to invest into bitcoin after making some of those kinds of payments into their 401k and their housing payments.. so even assuming that some younger peeps might be able to feel comfortable assessing their total investment portfolio in the $100k to $500k range, their allocation to bitcoin might still ONLY be a relatively small part of that depending on their other investments or how they might be calculating their other investments.  On a personal level, I have never really been feeling very comfortable to assign a very high value to a housing investment or even a business investment because those kinds of investments are not very liquid and there remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the extent to which the assessed value is very easy to extract from the property/business.. so maybe even $100k of value might ONLY be reasonably be assessed as $50k or so until you are able to get the cash into your grubby little hands.

So, in the end, one or two cycles seem to be a kind of minimum prudent level before really getting excited to have the BTC price go flying up..   Sure, we cannot really control (or even know for sure) if the BTC price goes flying up either... yet I still have some troubles considering why any newbie BTC accumulator is going to be getting excited about BTC prices going up, unless valuing the BTC in fiat and/or playing around with the trading to attempt to accumulate through trading, which surely is not tend to be as good of an accumulation strategy as just ongoingly buying...

So yeah, for anyone who is going to be o.k. to start shaving off some of their profits and wanting to use some of that money to buy back BTC, then hopefully they have either reached a kind of high level of accumulation already, yet how are they going to know when to shave off or how much to shave off .. well maybe until they start getting closer to their beginning level of fuck you status of a $2 million goal and they can kind of project their fuck you status.. otherwise, it seems that anyone new to bitcoin is not going to be close to fuck you status, unless s/he was already close to fuck you status before getting into bitcoin.

There seems to be a bit of gobble-dee-gook in your description regarding how to assess the value of an asset and if it may well have long term prospects.  Let's stick with bitcoin rather than talking about any other asset or token or whatever because this thread is not regarding talking about various shit projects, and likely there is a bit of an assumption here that bitcoin's fundamentals are actually good.  We need not go through that assessment either, but we still might try to consider whether we are in a dip or not or if the price is going to dip more.  Of course, there is a feeling of getting more value if buying on dips, but also if your investment time horizon is long enough, whether you bought on dips or not might not have made as much of a difference as the mere fact of buying and NOT really hesitating to buy on a regular basis until you meet your investment goals - and even your investment goals might be changing if you happen to be a young person and you have a long time horizon to invest before you start to draw upon the investment.

So for example, if you investment timeline is anywhere between 20 and 30 years, you might do some lump sum investments into BTC, just to get started, then you might set up some regular small amount of regular DCA and you might set aside some value as well to prepare to buy on dips.  If the BTC price goes from $38k to $380k in your investment timeline, it might not have mattered very much if you bought some of your early BTC at $38k or $45k.. and furthermore, if you feel like you do not have enough invested, you may well have been buying small amounts of BTC for that whole time and some of your BTC buys might have been as high as $380k...

So in the end, if you end up going from 0 BTC to perhaps having 4 or 5 BTC, you might still feel good about the ongoing persistence that you had over time to just continue to accumulate... or maybe at some point, you reach 10 BTC, and you feel that you really ONLY need to accumulate 4-5BTC to feel comfortable, so you feel like you have twice as many BTC as you need, so at some point you might either stop accumulating or start to sell some of the excessively accumulated BTC.


I doubt that we are in a 2018-like situation right now (remember that 2018 was a down year.. the whole year)..

Seems to me that it is more likely that we are still in the middle of a 2017-like situation.. (perhaps a 2013-like situation) which signifies that the top (so far $64,895) has not yet been reached for this particular cycle.. but where the top would be might be another question.  

Will the top be just a small portion higher, and unable to get above $100k or might we have a top that goes above $100k and so high as $200k to $300k, and sure there are possibilities of going higher too in this particular cycle.

Of course, there are no guarantees regarding where we are at exactly, which implies that we cannot be sure either regarding the direction that we might be going from here, and so people are going to come to varying conclusions regarding what they should do regarding their own strategies based on their assessment of where they believe we might be at.

hahahaha

You opportunist...    

I will agree with you, that there is a need for BTC prices to stay above $35k for several more days.. more than a week longer in order to show another example once again how uie poo-ie, aka the wannabe sorcerer who happens to be a diptwat, happens to be wrong yet another time - even though you had been right for a decent amount of time (was it two months so far?) and hardly can even credit you with that level of happening to be right either.. because you don't know shit.. you just happen to throw out some nonsense, and every once in a while you happen to be correct. takes a lot of talent for those kinds of maths and sciences, no?


I was thinking something like the same thing.

It was fun while it lasted.

Hey, I do still think that it was not wasted, even if we might go back down into the lower $30ks.. and surely that is NOT a given, neither.  There's no guarantee that we will ever see sub $35k ever again, even though the odds are probably not much greater than 50/50.. but whatever, at some point, we are going to be in a place that we consider sub $35k bitcoin as laughingly unlikely.  

How do some of us feel about sub $3k bitcoin?  Gosh, they were surely seeming to be pretty highly likely in March 2020, no?  They were also seeming like they had good chances in November through March of 2018/2019.

These days?  There are not too many people who realistically believe that sub $3k coins in the coming years (perhaps ever) are very likely at all.

We've come a long ways boyz (and gurl).

I wonder if there are such a class of people?  Might be a temporary status, no?

For example, in early 2016,  when the BTC price was stuck in the mostly $350 to $450 range there seemed to be quite a few people who were proclaiming that BTC prices would never go above $500 again.  Gosh we must have stayed in that range for nearly 7 months, so by the time that we were several months in that seemingly stuck zone, more and more people were believing that BTC prices would never go above $500 again.

Personally I believe that there were likely lot of decently powerful forces who would have preferred that BTC prices never go above $500 again.. so they did strive to keep BTC prices below $500... and they were able to do it, until they could not do it any longer.

After May 2016, it would have sucked to have been a person betting on (or believing upon) sub $500 prices forever


Only two categories of people who are selling BTC at $38k, and now the lower prices of $36.5k (as I type).. and presumably at price points in between?


Are there such a kind of people?

Can you ever have too many BTC?  Hey, note that I am kind of playing devil's advocate in my having had posed this question, because there do seem to be a variety of scenarios in which someone might have too many BTC.,. but the more common scenario (or problem) seems to be the vast majority of peeps have way too few BTC (for their own good).

I suppose that your bills are going to be due and they are going to be payable in some other forum of asset or currency, aka fiat, no?

I will agree that there are surely people who gamble too much, so perhaps those are the kinds of people who bought too much BTC because they were betting on up, yet when we got up, then their bet came true, so surely not a bad thing to sell some BTC at that point, in the event that was what they had planned to do, no?

I recall that in late 2014, I established a BTC accumulation goal of having 10% of my quasi-investible asset value in BTC, so when I reached my goal in late 2014 (and BTC prices had gotten down to around $350 or so), I still could not resist but to continue to buy BTC beyond maintaining a 10% allocation during 2015 - even though I had already reached my 10% allocation goal.. so I suppose by the time that late 2015 came and I had reached around 13.5% allocation in BTC, I fit that same category as you describe of having had bought "way more" than what I should have held in the first place, so sure, having gotten my lil selfie into such a classification, I did feel somewhat over-allocated into bitcoin, yet I really did not panic, but I started to feel somewhat more psychologically comfortable to shave off some BTC here and there from time to time, but since the BTC price largely kept going up way faster than my readiness and willingness to shave off some of the BTC allocation, that allocation continued to grow.. and it got above 90% a few times, and it largely hovered in a 45% to 70% range for a large part of 2018, 2019 and 2020...

Sucks to be me to both have had overly allocated into BTC and then maintained such overallocation in order to feel comfortable to sell whatever amount of BTC whenever I want - even though I have kept "way too much" in BTC.  By the way, over the years, I have developed some additional criteria - even though my BTC has continued to stay way over allocated.  Funny how the concept of overallocation works, sometimes, and also the concept of adjusting new strategies based on such ongoing overallocation acceptance.

It seems like we get some of those every single time, and they present their case as if it were the smartest thing in the world to be doing.. selling some and going to buy back cheaper.  Frequently, we do not see those ones again.  Sometimes I find it hard to be nice or to give the benefit of the doubt to those ones.  I recall that we had a couple of weeks of correction in something like March 2017 that brought the BTC price down to about $850, and it was hovering in the $1k arena as a kind of Spring point, and a member posted that he was selling, and he was going to buy back lower.  I said that I thought he was doing the opposite of what he should be doing, but we would see what happens because for sure none of us know what is going to happen - especially in the short term, but sometimes it can get quite dangerous to be selling rather than buying on dips (even though dips tend to be scary while they are happening). 

From the charts, we can see that in that March 2017 case, the BTC prices pretty much went UP from there, and sure, they did not get decisively above $3k until about September 2017, but we also know that so far they have not gone below $3k, either.. so sometimes there becomes a point that the BTC price never every again returns to such a price point.. but at any given price point, we cannot be sure, exactly when that is going to be...... .even though selling on dips or failing to buy more on dips.. do tend to play out as a common theme in which that never to return price point is experienced (unknowingly at the time)...

For sure, people wanting to jump on the Tether bashing bandwagon whenever they get a chance, even bitcoiners who should know better than to blanketly consider Tether as if it were some kind of meaningful "bad guy" in this whole situation.

Tether remains the oldest of the stable coins, and sure there are a lot of imitators who are trying to be more compliant with various Government regulators - but probably tether would be more likely to stand up for the ideals of bitcoin and NOT throw bitcoiners under the bus, same with Bitmex and even Binance (yes, I know that Binance has a lot of shitcoin products and also allow pretty outrageous leveraging/margin trading products).. there are desires to vilify these entities and to try to get compliance and to fall in line in order to attempt to create inroads to BTC.. which remains a very difficult thing for various governments and also status quo financial institutions that are seeking to employ more subtle misinformation campaigns and to cause confusion amongst bitcoiners in a variety of ways... when and if possible.