i have to apologize to the OP for assuming bitrefill was correct re the allegedly unconfirmed parent transaction. bitrefill just did the same thing to me yesterday. i used a non-RBF transaction (no unconfirmed parent) and paid considerably more than the required 6 sats/byte. they still made me wait until the transaction was confirmed before delivery, showing this message:  they should remove their promise of zero confirmation transactions because they obviously don't abide by it anymore. i dunno if their system is just broken or if they are being intentionally deceptive but either way, it was pretty damn annoying. i might as well stick to bitpay merchants if i have to deal with this kinda bullshit on top of bitrefill's already huge markups. |
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It probably won't be the last scandal of this type, but in Europe it is already being compared to Enron's in the US. that occurs to me as quite an exaggeration. the estimated losses in the enron collapse came to $74 billion---and that's in 2001 dollars, which were worth 45% more than today's dollars in terms of inflation. $4 billion is a drop in the bucket by comparison. |
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People can be categorized into two categories in economics , from a practical point of view.
• You either provide jobs
• You either do the jobs
The people who does provide the jobs , does have a store capital income that they are looking forward to multiply with passing time. Whereas the working class restlessly works day and night to reach even 1% of that capital class. arguably a marxist structure for capital would only change the ruling class---from the capitalists to the political/bureaucrat class. workers still wouldn't own the means of production and would be at the mercy of the political class. some political theories see marxism and especially soviet-style communism as just another form of (anti-market) capitalism. free market theories that also oppose private property are much more interesting to me. Basic necessities should not be paid by the people below the poverty line!!
During a job interview priority must be given to person who is most eligible ofcourse but at the same time the next criterion needs to be the economic situation of the family. these aren't really marxist ideas---more like welfare statism and democratic socialism. |
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tough break on that set over set hand, @Steamtyme. that gets me every time! i was plugging along alright until this hand where i limped from SB w/ A3, @webtricks checks from BB w/ 37. we both turn a straight, me with a 6-high and him with a 7-high. i assumed no one had the only combination that beat me (37) but then i forgot about the BB special.  i had 10bbs left after that, and eventually lost a preflop shove w/ A9 vs K2 from @Hhampuz, he hit a 2. i'm out in 10th place, at least i made it past the points bubble, just barely..... good game today. @Globb0 is chip leader at the final table, i'm rooting for you dude!  |
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i would much rather own clean outputs withdrawn from an exchange than coinjoin-linked outputs---at least until bitcoin privacy is improved enough to obfuscate coinjoins. Genuine question - where are you sending or spending your bitcoin that you need "clean" outputs? I have used various mixers in the past, including ChipMixer a lot, and have started to use some coinjoining as well. I have never once encountered a problem spending my "tainted" coins, but I also don't use centralized exchanges at all. centralized exchanges. i use coinbase pro to cash out fiat---i don't love it but it's the only exchange i ever KYC'd on many years ago---and i am extremely paranoid about what outputs i deposit there. tbh i dunno how long they will even keep tolerating customers like me who always deposit coins from no-KYC exchanges like binance, kucoin, bitmex. i do occasionally trade on localcryptos for cash (in which case this is not a concern) but there isn't enough constant liquidity in the p2p markets for what i need. as a longtime bitcoin swing trader i gravitate towards thick order books since i can't afford to wait around for hours/days/weeks for trades to come through. those wait times can equate to lots of money lost. |
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false alarm, it seems. i can't bother confirming the chat log---you need to sign up and confirm an email--- but apparently roger ver said this in an AMA on coinmarketcap:"The announcement was made without my knowledge or consent. The forum isn't going away." They'll go and hang on r/btc even though that place is starting to get a little ragged too.
folks in r/btc actually seemed happy at the prospect that this could boost their traffic. it's a sad state of affairs over there.  |
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But he is still a legendary investor whose opinion is respected by millions of people around the world, just as is the case with Warren Buffett, Bill Gates or Carlos Slim. From them actually speaks their money which represents their power to shape public opinion. But it is a species in extinction whose words are worth less and less, and I personally have no doubt that Bitcoin will exist even when they are no longer present among the living. it's not a sprint, it's a marathon.  the dinosaurs will eventually die out. we just need to wait and let bitcoin do its thing. superior money is superior. we should be thankful traditional/mainstream investors are still pushing these sorts of opinions. it means there is still so much upside left. we're clearly still in the early adoption phase. I think he's confused between government wants to "eliminate" Bitcoin and government will "eliminate" Bitcoin.
governments hate looking impotent. trying to "eliminate" bitcoin does exactly that. |
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Is it really happening already? Virtual crowd, sounds, and cheers?
I just can't imagine it yet. Like the sounds while playing NBA2k and Madden?
it's a bit like that, yes. they are already doing the fake crowd noise thing in bundesliga matches. it's not too bad IMO although slightly awkward with the empty stands: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HrgO0ITWF5Qhere is a CGI crowd reel---this is what virtual fans will look like: https://www.themill.com/stories/our-cg-crowds-reel-is-here/when the news about this first came out, i thought it would be extremely cheesy, but this actually looks better than i expected. |
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Please note that there is no late registration this time. Register today! take note, @arallmuus! I have a question. Does anyone enjoy or get anything out of me recording the play?? I really don't mind continuing doing it, but wanted to make sure it had some value to others. I could also try and add to it a little, I've considered doing a bit of voice over, but I will need to work out the logistics, as this is set up in the family room lol.
if it's a hassle for you, don't worry about it. i have watched a couple and enjoyed it though. voice over would be great. if only we could record it with all visible hole cards like on tv---that would be fun! i'd watch every minute. |
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I wouldn't need to use it for gambling directly. I could use it to rebalance funds between wallets that I use for gambling, without paying 2% for a mixer. Doesn't matter. Coinbase and other exchanges will track coins backwards and forwards multiple transactions. If coins are going from casino -> wallet A -> exchange -> wallet B -> casino, then the exchange will rapidly pick up on that. Even if you add multiple hops in between casino and exchange, once you've done something similar a few times your account they will pick up on it. i would emphasize that you cannot lump coinbase together with all exchanges. many exchanges will do no such thing. specifically, binance.com and kucoin (unless things have changed very recently) do not have any terms prohibiting gambling. you can freely send them coins from gambling sites---i have---and withdraw "clean" coins from their hot wallet. it's probably sensible to do a few nominal trades so it doesn't look like you're just using them to pass funds through. Then use a larger anonymity set. If you use an anonymity set of 50, for example, then any link to "tainted" bitcoins is diluted beyond meaning.
it may not be taint that gets you, but simple association with wasabi wallet coinjoins. multiple exchanges have acted adversely against customers who deposited/withdrew such funds. i would much rather own clean outputs withdrawn from an exchange than coinjoin-linked outputs---at least until bitcoin privacy is improved enough to obfuscate coinjoins. sadly, that is the price of fungibility. |
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who aggree with me that bitcoin sv appearance has crashed crypto and it was like covid19 for bch btc and ether , and the market will get back if bsv die , its still fighting
my theory is that craig + calvin ayre and company organized a coordinated BTC dump when BSV launched in november 2018. the reason is obvious---they wanted to create a narrative that people were dumping BTC for BSV. with all those juicy stops waiting below $6k, their dump helped trigger the crash to $3k. obviously there wasn't much existing BTC supply to keep price down at those levels, which is why price slingshot to the $13000s afterwards in relatively short order. in terms of real fundamentals and supply and demand, BSV is of no real concern. it's just another altcoin, one that is growing more irrelevant by the day. in related news, craig has now declared he is autistic and used it as a defense against court sanctions, if you can believe it: https://cointelegraph.com/news/judge-accepts-craig-wrights-autism-defense-says-no-to-sanctionsWright said his witness had diagnosed him with “Autism Spectrum Disorder with high intellectual skills” which needed to be taken into account when assessing his somewhat inconsistent statements to the court.
Under Judge Bloom’s ruling, Wright’s autism defense is cleared to proceed at this point. He says the psychologist could provide testimony showing how his condition “could be incorrectly perceived as having provided untruthful testimony” such as providing an incomplete or “false” list of Bitcoin addresses. |
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Their heuristics may improve with time but one that isn't going to change is that coins that come out of a regulated exchange are considered clean. This therefor an alley to "launder" your coins from the perspective of these services, and regulators in general: get them in and out of an exchange. I believe this is what OP is referring to, and to be clear, I do not recommend doing this at all.
If you suspect your coins need cleaning, either because they are tied to your identity or flagged for whatever reason, passing them through an exchange will not do you much good. There are better ways to achieve this without handing out your SSN and a rectal scan to Coinbase. he could always use a non-KYC exchange like binance or kucoin. they keep logs obviously, but he isn't worried about state adversaries anyway. this would prevent the need for KYC while suiting his desire to obfuscate outputs on-chain, and secondarily would produce "clean" coins. AFAIK it is not against the terms of either exchange to use funds associated with gambling and they both pool funds, as do most exchanges. There is also no guarantee a custodial service will pool their customers coins. There is actually regulatory precedent against that in the US, where BitFinex was ordered to hold individual wallets per customers, which is the precursor to the whole mess with BitGo that led to that 300k something heist back in 2018 (I believe, don't quote me on the year). that CFTC violation only regarded margin accounts---spot exchanges, and margin exchanges outside the USA unaffected. |
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No offence but you need to shift it to either Tuesday or Wednesday. Sunday is very busy for regular players like me because of big tourneys on poker stars.
Prize pool is simply not enough for me to shift my focus from those big ones.
there aren't many super active MTT regs here, but i do understand where you're coming from. @CCwatcher420 floated that idea IIRC and it wasn't met with much interest. i think our crowd is pretty casual and more likely to play on the weekend, and between saturday/sunday, sunday was much more popular. There's nothing more I can say except "See you at the tables people!". +1. see you on the felt! |
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That is exactly what I meant. The probability calculator gives some numbers, taking into account the fact that he “knows” the opponent’s hand or gives these numbers with respect to all possible combinations. But the game situation is completely different from these calculations.
even if you don't know the opponent's hand, you can still assign them a range of possible hands based on their table play, or just a generic range if you have no reads. so, let's say you're facing a very active/aggressive raiser to your left who 3-bets ~ 2x per orbit, likes to barrel postflop, and has shown down some bluffs. you are dealt KQs and it folds around to you. you raise, he 3-bets. what is a range we can put him on? based on our limited history and assuming a full ring game, he is 3-betting preflop 22.2% of the time. assigning a generic range based on the top 22.2% of starting hands we have: 66+,A3s+,K7s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,A8o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo let's see how our equity holds up. preflop:  now, let's imagine a hypothetical flop. for simplicity's sake, we will avoid flush possibilities:  we're in good shape against villain's range, but he continuation bets on the flop and calls a raise. we see a turn card:  villain fires a 2nd barrel. what's our play? unfortunately with this type of LAG player, we can't narrow his range all that much. this is why LAG players are tough to beat---they make you gamble with higher variance in order to defend your equity. we know he could have hit a set or a straight, or turned a stronger pair. after all, he did call the raise on the flop. we also he know he could have a weaker pair, he could be semi-bluffing a gutshot straight draw, etc anyway, this is just to highlight a spot where i think people give the villain too much credit. yes, our equity dropped on the turn, but it's really important to consider villain's entire range rather than automatically assuming he made a better hand by the turn. LAG players are often skilled at reading players, especially OOP, so the likelihood that he called the flop raise based on pot odds and is bluffing the turn---knowing he can likely scare us off the hand---is still pretty decent. |
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Look Biden is working really hard towards Texas and if he could get it, that means it is all over. Last elections there was just 3 states where 70k people could have voted for Hillary and the whole election would have changed, we are talking about 150 million people voting and 70k people switching sides changes everything. texas is not a swing state---i'm not sure what chances biden realistically has there. while the texas republican-democrat margin in the 2016 election was the smallest in decades, it was still sizable. this will be hard to overcome: Since 1980 Texas has voted Republican in every election. But the question is whether arbitrage is possible within the same bookmaker (which I doubt)? Of course this is possible even within the same bookmaker Pre-match it's a bit harder to achieve, because the markets move slow, but in-play you can do it all the time. Exchanges like Betfair are better suited, because you just pay a commission on your net profit. +1 |
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i'm excited to see our third series kicking off! i'll definitely be there. if i miss any game, consider the extra fees a donation. no late registration---noted. i'm gonna try to pre-register in case i sleep late. it's been known to happen. big thanks to SwC for dropping 0.06 BTC in prizes on us! see everyone on sunday! |
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Ok. Thanks. Im using normal Coinbase.
The problem is I didn’t receive either number in email and can’t locate on my account. When I hit to deposit and choose bank wire, it simply gives me their contact info. I was afraid that they would try and hold it like you said and I have found their customer support is non existent. Any other services for USA that is better ? Thanks.
you should switch to coinbase pro. their regular site adds big fees and then puts a hold up to 10 days on your buys. are you depositing more than $25k at a time? if not, then ACH transfers are probably fine. they are free on both sides and withdrawals always hit my bank account in ~ 2 days. i'm in the USA. as @OmegaStarScream said, gemini may be your next best bet. there is also kraken. but before you go throwing your KYC documents all over the internet---presumably you already verified at coinbase---you might try to get things working at coinbase first. i've never had any problems depositing/withdrawing myself, but i've also never used their regular interface, only coinbase pro. |
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I thought about this: let's say you have AA in your arms. You go allin. And according to the odds calculator, your odds are ~ 90% (I didn’t check, I just guess as this information is not important for further discussion). But your real chances are less because if someone answers you, he (presumably) will have a stronger hand than the "average" with respect to which the chances are calculated.
I'm right?
it's more complicated than that. in holdem, when it comes to starting hands, hand strength is not static. it changes relative to your opponent's holdings. statistically, AA is the best possible starting hand. KK is the 2nd best possible starting hand. however, when it comes to AA vs KK, the KK player would be better off holding something like a low-mid suited connector like 65s, which would give him a 4.5% better chance of winning at showdown.   this represents the value of "live cards" where your opponent doesn't have you dominated pair over pair or out-kicked. |
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Why so, what a logic to do that? As i remember, it was you who told me that Trump has few chances to win. Does it mean, that you already bet on Biden and now trying to do some kind of "golden middle"? (i don't know a correct term in english, in postUSSR we have our term for that - "betting fork" ), when it doesnt matter which one will win, you will get your profit anyway? yes, that's the basic idea. this is what i had said: most presidents don't get reelected with approval ratings this low---not that i would write off trump yet, but i don't see "great" chances for winning here. i see a very hotly contested election. a coin flip, which is why i am not interested in betting on either biden or trump unless either gets priced above 3 to win.
i want to bet on trump when the odds are deeply against him, then also bet on biden in the next couple months assuming trump's numbers recover. effectively i would be betting against the punters who took low money odds on either candidate, and not so much betting on the outcome itself. i still don't have a strong opinion about the outcome---so many unknowns and unpredictable factors this far out. this seems like the only logical way to approach it. |
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