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741  Economy / Speculation / Re: 100 Push-Ups A Day Until Bitcoin Is $100K Challenge on: March 17, 2024, 06:59:47 PM
I see some hate towards milk on this thread and I’m not sure how I feel about that. I drink close to half a gallon of milk a day. Usually straight from the jug like a beast. Is there really anything better than milk, red meat, and potatoes drenched in butter? I think not.

I’m getting a late start on my push-ups today. Been a busy weekend and I am very sunburned.

Raw milk or straight from the cow's teet might be good.
742  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2024, 06:53:36 PM
MSTR is levered 2.2X, which means that IF bitcoin goes to roughly 31-32K, the intrinsic value of MSTR stock would approach zero.
They would probably not go bust, but they would probably lose 70-90% of their market cap in this scenario.
How likely is the "deleveraging"..maybe unlikely right now, albeit JPM started making noises about it.
https://decrypt.co/221873/microstrategy-bitcoin-buys-severe-deleveraging-jp-morgan
Maybe they want "in" on this deal, lol.
I doubt that it is as easy to break MSTR as JP Morgan would like to speculate, and maybe that is what Saylor is trying to get some of the BIG cats to do, which surely will bring the destruction and demise of the BIG cats a lot faster than they are already on a worse train than the bitcoin train seems to be the place to be, even if Saylor is seeming a wee bit psycho in recent times..
Exactly. Think of Robinhood and Gamestop vs. hedge funds. The epic short squeeze/gamma squeeze that happened has made some cold blooded "diamond hands" quite a bit richer. I made a few dimes myself by joining the wagon when it had just started.

But this time, they cannot shut off the exchanges and/or remove the buy button - at least when it comes to bitcoin.

These funds were shorting Gamestop because they thought the company was toast so they saw an opportunity. A few apes coordinated on Reddit to keep buying buying buying, 10 dollars at a time. That wouldn't have been enough on itself, but the original apes had done much better than that - they'd bought a lot (I mean a lot) of out-of-the-money call options. Options in general have intrinsic multiplier properties: $1 of options could easily move $100 of stock or more. What happened is the apes made quite a killing - both original apes and "I jumped on the wagon later on" apes.

Now I don't even know if MicroStrategy is listed on any significant option exchange, but I bet Saylor has some safety net ready. Imagine short squeezing/gamma squeezing JPMorgan and buying back the stock you sold to buy bitcoin at half the price.

Funny thing about MSTR stock is that it has such a large bitcoin component.. so there are some difficult to control dynamics that reflect upon its price.

Interesting times ahead, gentlemen. Get your popcorn ready. And if the popcorn shop has cheap MSTR out-of-the-money calls, maybe grab a couple bags of those too. Worst case, you'll lose a few hundred. Best case, you'll gain a few thousands.

Have you read till the end? Good. So where's your (pop)corn?

Here, we are preaching to to the choir a little bit, but there still can be some challenges in terms of who is doing what and what are going to be the next attack vectors that relate to bitcoin, and there could even end up being a few casualties among us....

Oh yes, Sunday now
Weekend dump before the pump
Healthy correction
BTC is really for the strong hearted... and those who look at it from macro-level.

Just when we are all enthralled with the enthusiasm of $100k price, it is already heading north not because it is the right direction at this time but just to prove that no one can accurately predict its movement. The best we can do while it decides what it wants to do. Anyways, 1BTC = 1BTC, and you only lose when you sell.

Now I see why people do this "1BTC = 1BTC" thingie...

It is because it is so difficult to keep track of its price... but still. it just isn't saying anything... even though maybe someone is using the expression to say to hang onto your BTC and/or stack more of them if you can no matter how much they might cost in terms of fiat.  Even though I don't really disagree with it, I still don't really like the expression.

I think we migbt see <$60k before we see $70k.
I don't think so, even now the market is still showing a positive trend on bitcoin. dumping back to $61,000 - 63,000 is still reasonable, but i'm not sure about going below $60,000.

Where do you think we are now? complacency or anxiety?
Neither....we are at "optimism" or "belief", imho.
See those wicks down in "belief"? That's where we are at.
These are long scale charts, not weeklies, lol.

We might even be further left of the chart because any subsequent correction after a hype period may well not even correct back down to our current BTC price levels.

It's fun to see the bears come out on the weekend and try to be cute only to go back in hiding come Monday. Pathetic.
I don’t think the bears came out as much as Saylor’s billion dollar buy sent it upwards previously. I fear he may have already made his $500,000,000 buy as well since he did his last one over the weekend. Monday could be a bloodbath as a result, but it’s probably important to get BTC out of the weak hands that purchased just for quick gains because it was rising.
You mean that other BIG players are going to dump on Saylor just to attempt to "teach him a lesson?"
No, I mean that Saylor’s billion dollar smash buy sent the price artificially higher and now it’s settling back to where it would have been otherwise.

Also, Saylor is the one dumping MSTR. Is he doing that to “teach his investors a lesson” or is he just choosing to take profits on an investment he feels is overvalued?

He is using the money printer go bbbbbrrrrr that is within his powers to buy more sound money, which is bitcoin... which then contributes to causing his share prices to go up more, rinse and repeat.
743  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 17, 2024, 06:02:24 PM
Even though I am already coming to conclude that it is likely in bitcoin that we are not going to need as much of a nest egg as we need in traditional finances in order to support ourselves from our BTC stash, since in traditional investment we need right around 25x our income in order to be able to live off of our income (which is assuming a 4% withdrawal rate), and I am starting to consider that with bitcoin 10-16.7 years of income may well be enough (which is assuming a 6% to 10% withdrawal rate).. but it is still risky to overly rely on the newer models and those kinds of potential more aggressive withdrawal rates that bitcoin might be able to provide since it is more of an untested system and fairly new, so it may well be much better to rely on more conservative models and to have some cushion in the size of he BTC stash before pulling any fuck you lever that would then put you in a position where you are having to live off of your BTC stash.
I didnt get that withdrawal rate point. Can you just elaborate it a bit for my understanding. Will be grateful.

In traditional investments, there is generally a recommendation that you should be able to withdraw 4% per year from your investment portfolio and to be able to withdraw at that rate forever, so long as, on average, your investment is growing in value at least 4% per year.

So if you have $1 million, then a withdrawal rate of 4% per year would yield you $40k of passive income for the year or $3,333 per month.

BTC could fairly conservatively facilitate 6-10% per year or perhaps even more, as long as you are valuing your stash based on the bottom price (or the 200-WMA) rather than attempting to value your BTC based on top (or spot) prices that tend to be all over the place... even though when you sell, you will of course be selling based on then BTC spot prices.

From my fuck you status chart, you can see that the BTC's 200-WMA (or the bottom) has gone up by more than 20% per year, and there is no reason to believe that it won't continue to go up more than 20% per year, especially if averaged out, and also you can see with my fuck you status chart that the worst period for the 200-WMA rate of increase was between mid 2022 until late 2023 (which was 20% annually for that period).  So in theory, if you are measuring your BTC's value from the bottom price, then you could expect to withdraw based on that even up to 20% and it would still continue to sustain itself in terms of dollar values.. .and to be safe, you could withdraw at a lower rate such as 6% to 10% and still have a cushion, and since the 200-WMA is a lagging indicator, you can watch it to see if it is starting to get to lower values, otherwise you should be able to sustainably withdraw at way higher rates than you would have had been able to do under traditional investments.  You can see more of my sustainable withdraw discussions in my sustainable withdrawal thread, and some of the linked tools and threads.

Of course, with my sustainable withdrawal tool (powered by bitmover), you can back test a variety of theories and timelines to see for yourself that you could have had engaged in pretty high withdrawal rates (even maximizing out the tool at 30%), and BTC still has held its dollar value.. especially over longer periods of time.   I recently discussed an example that goes back to June 1, 2019 in this post.
744  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2024, 05:37:56 PM
It's fun to see the bears come out on the weekend and try to be cute only to go back in hiding come Monday. Pathetic.
I don’t think the bears came out as much as Saylor’s billion dollar buy sent it upwards previously. I fear he may have already made his $500,000,000 buy as well since he did his last one over the weekend. Monday could be a bloodbath as a result, but it’s probably important to get BTC out of the weak hands that purchased just for quick gains because it was rising.

You mean that other BIG players are going to dump on Saylor just to attempt to "teach him a lesson?"

I have my doubts on that kind of theory, especially since it is likely the case that the ETF providers are still onboarding newbies, so they don't really have any incentive to allow the BTC price to dip too muchedly.

So perhaps Jaime Diamond and some of his buddies are going to be the losers in this if they are actually continuing to bet against bitcoin in any more than mere rhetorical ways.  In other words, if Jaime Diamond and the other bitcoin haters actually put their money where there mouth is and they bet against bitcoin, they are likely going to be the ones who actually get reckt in meaningful ways, so I am not sure if they are really willing to play that card and to bet against bitcoin, especially when it is in the midst of no man's land and also with other current circumstances that are ongoingly causing UPpity price dynamics (and perhaps momentum?)  on dee cornz.

[edited out]
I agree with what you're saying, and you are describing my situation quite accurately. The thing is, I have reached a stage where I have enough BTC (even though the amount may be considered quite low for many WOers' standards) that I don't feel I need to buy more, and I also have enough fiat to use for everyday expenses and to sustain a good lifestyle. And new fiat keeps coming in every month. So, why should I shave off from my BTC stash?

Ok.  that all makes sense.  You are in that kind of limbo part of your bitcoin journey in which you mostly have enough.

Yet, I still feel a psychological need to shave off small amounts (a few thousand dollars every now and then), just to enjoy using them for the fun of it. Buying things, traveling, doing fun stuff. And yes, I do feel I still have plenty left, even to the point of not being able to live long enough to really spend them all. It's a strange feeling actually, when you consider that I don't generally have the need to buy luxury stuff. I drive a Toyota and really love it.

The Lexus is the luxury version of the Toyota..

I would not go near a Ferrari or Lambo, even if you gifted it to me. Having said that, there are many very expensive things that I'd like to own, that would not appeal to most people.

I don't think there's anything wrong with Saylor. His material needs are satisfied many lifetimes over, with his fiat inflows. His Bitcoin stash may be serving a higher purpose for him. Perhaps, he envisions a time when Bitcoin will give him absolute control and dominance over things that go beyond personal material needs. Come to think of it, this last part doesn't sound very healthy to me, but being a multi-billionaire, and fueled by the very realistic, even near-certain prospect of Bitcoin's multi-magnitude price appreciation, can elevate one's grandiosity to extreme levels. So, maybe you're right in that there is something "wrong" with him. He seems very likable when he talks, and it's fun to read about his BTC purchases. Those laser eyes... Looking forward to putting mine back on when price surpasses $100k.

He does seem likable, and it could be that he is just battling with guys like Jaime Diamond.

BTW, my take on "we" is that, deep down, it's always royal...

Maybe I can stop specifying then?  When using it (we), frequently it just seems a bit ambiguous.


The index is still showing levels at "extreme greed", can we expect a reversal to $70,000 in the next few days?

Yes.


The index is still showing levels at "extreme greed", can we expect a reversal to $70,000 in the next few days?
I think we migbt see <$60k before we see $70k.

Whoaza!!!  That surely comes off as bettable.

we haven't even reached the 2021 ATH when corrected for inflation.  plenty of upside left
we even don't have weekly candle above previous ATH.. maybe need some correction/consolidations before really pass it.

Sounds like very wishful thinking to this here cat... which just seems like a way to lose money by either selling too many cornz too soon or failing/refusing to buy enough to prepare ur lil selfie for UPpity.
745  Economy / Economics / Re: MicroStrategy Buys $250M in Bitcoin, Calling the Crypto ‘Superior to Cash’ on: March 17, 2024, 05:03:29 PM
Who is flaming who?  You keep raising the same question for the last 3-ish years.
That was a preemptive call for non-flaming, since I recall getting a lot of backlash for prior statements.  And I'm not flaming anyone here because of any opinions they might have regarding MSTR.  Not now, anyway (heh).
On the other hand, if your theory is that they are going to turn on him when (or if) the BTC prices go down, that seems to be a pretty lame cause of action, even though you seem to think that it is important.... and it is not..  You should already realize that one of the main ways to make a cause of action for breach of fiduciary duties would be in regards to lack of transparency (if such were to exist) rather than merely based on his using leverage to buy bitcoin and telling everyone that is what he is doing.
But there already was a lawsuit in the works that I linked to a while back (that apparently went nowhere), so it isn't as though it couldn't happen.  

The mere fact that people file frivolous law suits should not be sufficient evidence that there might be some in the future that might potentially have some merit...

Personally, I think that it is better to describe some sort of valid cause of action, and then go from there rather than just exaggerating possible causes of action that are frivolous at best.

But you're right, MSTR is being completely transparent about what they're doing with respect to buying bitcoin so I guess anyone who holds their stock shouldn't be shocked that its price is closely tied to the price of bitcoin.  And if bitcoin dropping down to $16k or wherever it was a couple of years ago didn't cause a revolt then I doubt there's going to be one in the works, except if some ambulance-chasing law firm wants to start up a class action lawsuit (which would probably fail).

Anyway, despite my skepticism my current thinking is that it's a benefit to the rest of us that a CEO of a tech company is so pro-bitcoin that he's putting his money where his mouth is and buying it in bulk.  If he has any influence in government or influential friends, that'd be even better.

He is becoming more and more popular, yet in recent times, I have been describing him as "not normal" and not something that regular normies should emulate, even though, sure, he can do what he likes..and maybe his battle is more with the no coiner companies or those companies who are bashing on bitcoin, so he is creating drama with some of those big companies to potentially teach them a lesson to get in the bitcoin train sooner rather than later, even though some of them continue to be against bitcoin, even while Saylor is ongoingly showing them actual concrete evidence that getting on the bitcoin train can be (and has been) a winning strategy.  

This is good news for many people in the world who are not familiar with Bitcoin.  Microstrategy bought 250 million bitcoins and held them for a long time.  This they do a lot of intelligence work.  When he sees that the next time it goes viral, his market price goes up a lot, he sells at a higher price in the market, then he spends more bitcoins to buy so that he can sell at a higher price later on.

You are just making shit up.  So far MSTR has not been trading (which involves selling bitcoin).

They have ONLY been accumulating, and pretty regularly since the start of this thread...  including saying that they are never selling.. even though they might be exaggerating a bit on the last point.. perhaps.  Saylor is so crazy, he might really be telling the truth about never selling, even though he surely has the option to sell at any time that he wants as long as he is not breaching his fiduciary duty to his shareholders who might have become reliant upon his ongoing, persistent and consistent statements that he is never selling any of his (MSTR's) bitcoin.
746  Economy / Speculation / Re: 100 Push-Ups A Day Until Bitcoin Is $100K Challenge on: March 17, 2024, 04:44:18 PM
Personally, I am a pretty big advocate of low carb and high fat diets.... so trying to stay natural with your foods, and then you can eat as much as you want as long as you are cutting out most of the bad stuff that might be high in sugars or high in unnatural kinds of oils or very processed foods that have a lot of artificial ingredients that interfere with your body's absorption of nutrients.

So maybe it depends upon what you are eating, because if you are starting to eat more, but you are eating better quality foods, even thinking about eating natural foods instead of processed, then you should still be advantaged, even if your appetite might have been getting higher based on your increasing levels of activity... without knowing more about the kinds of food you are eating, it might be more difficult to say what kinds of adjustments that you might want to make in regards to the kind of foods you are eating.   If you eat a lot of carbs then those have more likelihoods to keep you from losing weight.. especially processed carbs..  

I do know that sometimes when I eat a lot of foods with dairy, I will get a bit sluggish in my work-outs, so sometimes I try to moderate my dairy, or maybe eat some of the dairy after I do my pushups rather than before, even though I am spreading my pushups through the whole day. so I am not completely able to do my push-ups before eating, even though I try to structure them a bit in that direction when possible.

Another decently important component is making sure that you are sleeping well, so then if you have the increased activities through your increased focus on daily exercising, then maybe that would also help you to sleep better too.. perhaps?.. so yeah 6-9 hours of good sleep helps your bodies recovery and likely its abilities to process nutrients better.
Your words seem to be a big advocate about food and nutrition, even many doctors don't give such advice about food. My personal doctor, like you, advised me to avoid carbohydrates, high fat diets and processed foods as much as possible.

I am not against fats or even high fat is o.k... as long as we are eating natural fats from animals rather than processed oils that sometimes will try to simulate real fats but they have too many artificial processes that contribute to inflammation in our body.. so those would be almost any of those seed oils such as Canola oil, soybean oil or any of the processed oils - even olive oil is questionable.

Cold pressed oils are better such as natural animal fats, Coconut oil, butter.... eating meat with fats is good and eating whole eggs both the yolk and the whites is good.

I can't remember many food restrictions when I sit down to eat together with my family.But to stay healthy, these advice must be followed. I humbly want to know if you also use this method to lose weight?

I try to eat a lot of meats and natural foods, but I also have some carbs in my diet .... but I try not to eat very many carbs, including breads (even though i do eat breads once in a while)..   As we get older, we become more insulin resistant, so our bodies will not tolerate as much abuse or even be able to process some of the carbs as we were able to when we were younger.

As per doctor advice I don't drink milk directly, and instead eat sour curd, it is very beneficial. The body feels very light after eating sour curd. So when I got a little time all day, I continued to push-up. You have advised to proper deep sleep, I have to arrange deep sleep for properly. I hope that the day is not far when I can do more pushups like you.

I had not really eaten sour curd.. maybe a few times.. but there are some ideas that milk products are not as bad if they are full fat and also if they are raw rather than pasteurized and/or homogenized... .. so the fermenting process of the curd seems to be a good thing too.

Regarding my pushups.. they still hurt, but yeah, I just keep trying to plug away and hopping to continue to keep them going and maybe to expand.. but maybe at least getting to a point that they are easier and with less soreness.. even though a little bit of soreness it probably not a bad thing... ..

I don't really know if I'm the only one who's see this on Bitcoin price that's heading down where we don't want it to be or is it just trying to show those who never saw it getting past $67-69k? Huh...? I hope it gets back up again, or is it that some of us are not getting the job done like completing the push-up to 100? Or are some of us stopping at 60 that's why we have it at $68k now🤔🤔? Who's monitoring this push-up? We need to get it back up to $70k+ ones more.
I believe some of us are having this disappointing look on our faces after seeing the market price losing it's force of get to $100k, it must surely turn around anytime soon to a much higher price, ones it gets to $70k the journey to $100k continues.
A dump for ants... in other words, does not really even count for a dump.. yet.
I don't think is just an ordinary dump like you said because the way Bitcoin price is running down is so fast and this is the fastest dump I have seen since this year. We were expecting to see Bitcoin price going up but now is at $65k (this last time I checked), what seems to be the problem this time around? Well I hope this won't continue like this in this new week because if it does I believe it would kill the morale of those who have been holding for long and it might trigger some to start selling.

We can never know how long the dumps are going to last, yet we should be ready, willing and able to withstand them and to have plans about how to deal with them, whether it is just holding through or buying more... and we already had a couple of other quick dumps this year, from $49k to $38.5k and the other one from $64k to $59.5k and so these kinds of dumps are not unusual.. but they really have not been lasting, so far.. ..

 but yeah there could be some times in which there are incentives to shake a lot of weak hands, yet at the same time, the ETF providers might want to support the BTC price while they are launching their product, so they might not be willing to allow the BTC price to drop during these early stages in which they are promoting their products and trying to get normies to get into BTC through the ETF products they are promoting.

It is nothing much just some correction happening and their should be no much concern to read much of a meaning towards the little DIP, let's just see it and accept it is part of the runway towards setting another all time high.

For those who had held for long, it will be a total waste of time and patience after holding in your portfolio for months and just when we get very close to achieving what we all anticipated then decides to sell, it's not advisable, a little more patience is needed.
Very hard to keep on holding at this dumping period, let's say if things were a bit different from what we're seeing right now I believe many won't be on the panicking line and having that thought of selling, it happens all the time for the price movement to drop and some don't care about the corrections you talked about, they see these fall of Bitcoin price as a big disadvantage for them (traders and investors). Let's hope for it to start up another journey towards $70k+ and I wish it won't go back down.

Yes.. you sound like one of the weak hands that they would like to get to sell, and if you do, then you would likely regret it.

Newbies get so excited about short-term profits, and they tend to fail/refuse to recognize and appreciate the power of compounding value that comes from longer time holding of your BTC, and so if you are over-invested, sure shave off a bit, but otherwise, don't be over investing so much that you feel that you have to get a short-term profit when there is a hell of a lot more value in terms of figuring out longer term ways to hold your BTC and to enjoy the likely fruits of compounding value (and yeah, the compounding value is not guaranteed, but there is no real reason to consider bitcoin's investment thesis to be not be getting stronger with the passage of time).
747  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 17, 2024, 03:45:56 PM
[edited out]..Now if you are mixing your actions by buying and selling (in other words trading) then that is another story, but if you are strictly buying, then you have a dynamic that either your holdings are continuously going into less and less profits (in a bear market) or you have the dynamics that your holdings are increasingly in profits (in a bull market).
I highlighted a paragraph out, I've not been mixing strategies, I've been buying but I always thought we have been in the bear Market and I have also expressed myself in terms if us beign in the bear market but right now I feel my perspective of what a bear market or bull market is shattered, so I think it would be fair if I could explain more about it.

I already explained and probably overly explained, and so you need to think in longer timelines.  In essence, we have been in a bull market since November 2022, and I give little shits about what others say about the various corrections along the way.  The market does not change back and forth.

on the other hand, we could fairly assess that we might not have had realized that we were in a bull market until either mid-2023 or even as late as October 2023, but surely at some point, we would have or should have realized that we were in a bull market rather than a bear market since November 2022.

Bull market is that the price is generally trending up (even if there may well be short or long periods of corrections in between).

In other words, you cannot be flipping back and forth, and clearly even if we were in a correction in December 2023.. who gives any shits.. we were still obviously already in a bull market, even if there was a correction.

People frequently get confused by the short-term and/or overly obsess about the short term.. and especially if you already stated that you are planning to invest for a whole cycle, then there seems to be almost no reason to be getting worked up about various short term moves. 

Of course, any of us still wants to try to minimize his cost per BTC, but there is ONLY so much that we are able to do about those kinds of things, especially if we are new to bitcoin and still building our stash...

As I already mentioned, if you have been buying since December (or even in the past 16 months) the value of your holdings are generally in profits, and I am not even proclaiming that you are not faced with any dilemma, since when BTC is in this kind of bull market, there may well be a lot of advantages to front loading and investing as much as possible earlier rather than stringing out purchases, but at the same time, if you are new to bitcoin (and/or investing), you may well not have much if any choice based on how much (or the lack) that you have in your own finances to be able to dedicate to BTC purchases.

In other words, there are some advantages, towards buying when the BTC price is going down rather than when it is going up.. but you cannot really affect those kinds of situations.  You have to play with the cards that you have, and figure out what you are going to do and how you are going to deal with the current dynamics as well as future dynamics that are not really known very well until after they happen.

If you have a lot of money you could invest by HOLD.

There is no such thing as invest by HOLD.

Before you can HOLD, you have to buy first, which entails thinking about the various ways to buy. DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.

~snip~
Investing for 16 months is not really wise for me. Because here it is possible to make profit only by planning and investing for 16 months, it may not be correct, many times I think some part should be invested regularly. It should be planned to invest for a period of at least 3 to 5 years so that no matter what stage the market goes through, the investment will continue and the profit will always increase.
You are reading me out of context.  I was talking about anyone who may have been investing in bitcoin in the last 16 months has been investing in a bull market, and even if you have intentions to invest longer than 16 months, there surely are quite a few forum members who are participating in this thread who started in the last 16 months.
No, I read your context carefully and shared my experience.  Roll Eyes

No need to say more then.  I already stated how I consider you to have had either misunderstood or misframed the context.  I still believe that you misframed what I said, even if you might have had understood what I had been attempting to communicate.

Furthermore, your forum registration date is coming upon 5 years, so maybe you are getting close to 5 years of investing into BTC.?
Chapter 1.
Well to the point of old times, I saved some Bitcoin(meaning USD not full Bitcoin) and traded on the Binance platform and won some trade then my balance was around $3k. badly said that my Binance account was lost with $2500+USD in BTC pair.  I can not recovery this account.
Chapter 2.
Since I got married, we have been very separated as a family. Our family refused to accept us because of our love marriage. I now spend the BTC I earn to meet my family's needs, where I can't save a bit even if I want to. But I want to save a bit if possible consistently.

Well.. too bad about chapter 1, and the reality of the matter is that the dollar and BTC is different.  So yeah, you may well have your local currency, so you may well feel some value in holding dollars, but the dollar is still inferior to holding actual BTC, but you still have to be able to hold it .. and of course, I frequently recommend a timeline of 4-10 years or longer in order to be an investor, otherwise you are merely trading in BTC rather than investing, which is your choice.

Regarding your Chapter 2.  If you do not have any disposable income, then you are not in a position to buy BTC, so that is too bad for you if you know about the value of BTC but you are still not able to set aside some of your value to invest into bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer - and your family's life may well be in a better state down the road if you were to be able to follow some kind of an investment plan rather than spending everything that you earn  as soon as you get it.. even if you are ONLY able to invest $10 per week or so.. it is better than nothing.. but again your decision in regards to your own situation in regards if you are actually able to accomplish any such investment based on your own circumstances.. and I would think that if you are a member of this forum (who is actively participating) then at least you have some knowledge about bitcoin.. which puts you at some advantages over members of the regular population.

Considering the flutuation in the present price of Bitcoin there may be expectable more declining in price, although it's not certain but it seen to happen and if this happen those that are in rush to buy Bitcoin now may still regret for not waiting for minimum decline before making the investment. However, the present decline may be an avenue and the opportunity for those that were not financially able to invest at the high price of Bitcoin to invest and accumulate more Bitcoin as much as they may possibly afford with the expectation of a near future appreciation of Bitcoin price.
Thats where the deception and the statements of "had I known" usually arises as a result of the thinking that the market will continue to dip to a certain point  before we can then start buying and we end up failing to buy because the market as a speculative one later disappointed us of our expectations and dis the opposite by rising to a new price level unexpected. As a holder with a long term DCAing strategic plan as the market dips at each level that's how we should continue to buy if the money is available, we keep DCAing with each deep instead of waiting for it to get to a certain dip before buy, that idea is a wrong attitude and should be eliminated. Buying the dip doesn't have any price depth it is for us to keep buying and holding as it dips so that when the bull run takes flight we make multiple levels of profits from each point of the dip we bought (DCA) at in total.

It seems that I agree with what you are saying letteredhub.. especially if you are suggesting to buy at various points of the dip rather than trying to overly strategize and then miss out on buying the dip... so yeah if you are in buying mode, then many times you are going to end up buying the dip and it will keep dipping and maybe at some point you will also end up running out of money to keep buying the dip, so then at that point you might have to HODL through the situation until maybe you have more money come in.

I will say that your part about being in profits seems fairly irrelevant..  Sure it is comfortable to be in more profits, but in the end, it may not make big differences whether you are buying BTC on a regular basis or if you have had gotten lucky to buy some extra dips, because if we are investing for the long run we will assume to be in profits at some point, and then the level of profits begin to build and compound upon themselves, and that is where the real value comes rather than a simple assessment of happening to be in profits.. being in profits is sort of assumed (though not guaranteed) after 4-10 years or more but then it just becomes a matter of how much any of us might have had accumulated when we might start to draw from our BTC.. while potentially still allowing the BTC to compound value.. and that will give us more long term options - including our abilities to more freely spend our other monies prior to spending our bitcoin, and sometimes if we have been in bitcoin a while we might not even need to spend much of any of our bitcoin because we may well have built up other sources of income in which we can spend from those other sources of income prior to spending from our bitcoin stash...

and another thing is if we have plenty of bitcoin then we might not even be concerned about shaving some off here and there along the way.. so we don't really have any urgent needs to sell a lot of our bitcoin at once, but we still are not bothered to sell some of it at whatever the going price might happen to be at the time that we shave off some of it.

But those that have just started their Bitcoin accumulation and those low coiners, would have to keep accumulating without thinking of taken profit yet. And it may take a whole cycle for such individual to be able to have accumulate alot of Bitcoin in their portfolio.

It will likely tend to take at least a whole cycle.. and it might take 2-3 cycles before some of the ones who are starting now will be able to be in a comfortable position to change their strategy.

Don't get me wrong, even after a whole cycle of accumulating bitcoin, there might be a sense of empowerment or even a sense that the ways of accumulating bitcoin might be able to be changed, but the focus still may well continue to be to continue to accumulate bitcoin, even if there might be some ways in which the already accumulated quantity of bitcoin might inform some tweaking in the BTC accumulation approach.

If someone is new to bitcoin, but is already coming to bitcoin with a lot of fiat resources, then that kind of a person might be able to more clearly stop accumulating BTC, even after just a few years of accumulating, even less than a full cycle. 

See my 15 hypo examples that show various possibilities that vary based on investment timelines.
748  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador has become the first country to make #Bitcoin legal tender! 🇸🇻 on: March 17, 2024, 02:50:12 PM
when you bet country budget +50% is a jackpot already. Last time i've checked the price (2 days ago) it was around ath so i do not care here about what's going on right now.
The current state of El Salvador's government is only buying and hoarding bitcoins, since 2021 they have been hoarding all the bitcoins they buy but in a stronger wallet than they are now. Nayib Bukele decided not to sell bitcoins, all bitcoins have a profit ratio of 45%-56% according to the average price of bitcoins. So more benefits will be gained by depositing bitcoins in longer term, it is possible to gain more benefits in 2025.

You do realize that the term "hoarding" has a negative connotation?  If someone (or even an institution or a government) buys bitcoin and chooses to save it rather than spending it, then yeah that could be be called hoarding, but it is not really fair to use such a term, since saving bitcoin is a legitimate use of it.

The term hoarding suggests that there would be some requirement that they spend it, which truly is not necessarily the case without some further explanation in regards to what you might mean.

It could be true that some people, institutions and/or governments might have obligations to spend some of their money, but it is not necessarily the case that they would have to spend a certain kind of money prior to another kind of money, and actually since bitcoin is the most sound of monies known to man, it may well be the case that it is the responsibility of anyone who has to spend money to spend their less valuable monies first... which would be to spend all other monies prior to spending bitcoin, and that truly makes more sense than suggesting that anyone would be wise to spend their bitcoin first.. unless they were engaging in some kind of spend and replace practice.
749  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: What does BTC mean to you? on: March 17, 2024, 02:39:12 PM
One more thing, I think many people come to bitcoin not because of the freedom and privacy that bitcoin brings. Profit is what we are looking for in bitcoin and that is the main goal more than anything else.

People come for both, and they may or may not be as maniacally focused on profits as you are making them out to be.

Sure if you are in profits, then you are more comfortable..

But some people already have profits and comfort in their lives prior to coming to bitcoin, so they may well use bitcoin as a hedge and/or as a way to buttress their already comfortable situation.

None of us has to be maniacally focused on bitcoin profits or even presume that everyone is a greedy bastard in order to want to have bitcoin, even though surely bitcoin does provide incentives for those involved in bitcoin (even including miners) to pursue their own self-interest and their pursuit of their self-interest buttresses the strength of the BTC network.

In other words, there are already built-in incentives in bitcoin to pursue good, just and correct things and end up getting rich at the same time, even if some people might not be obsessed with such getting rich process.. and by the way, in regards, to the getting rich part of bitcoin, it mostly likely comes way easier for any of us who do not become overly greedy, since if you get overly greedy, you may well end up getting punished through BTC's volatility - and perhaps even reckt because you were being way more greedy than you should have had been - which truly also might have been part of the explanation for several of the fallen bitcoin businesses (and several of their customers) in the 2022 cascading of damages that played out through much of the second half of the year.
750  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: March 17, 2024, 02:21:03 PM
Yes very readable at the bitcoincharts page.  For anyone curious this how to calculate the vwap as I understand it.  You need to download two sets of data. WARNING: These are live download urls.  Download this file, by entering this link in your browser or do it from the headers,
Code:
https://data.bitcoinity.org/export_data.csv?currency=GBP&data_type=volume&exchange=kraken&r=day&t=b&timespan=5y&vu=curr
which is the kraken GBP volume data, in two columns.  Time, and volume.  Then download this csv,
Code:
https://data.bitcoinity.org/export_data.csv?currency=GBP&data_type=volume&exchange=kraken&r=day&t=b&timespan=5y
, which is the same timerange BTC volume.  Then copy the BTC volume column 2, into the GBP volume spreadsheet as column 3.  Divide column 2 by column 3 to get the vwap for that day.  

The main thing that I am suggesting is to just keep the bitcoincharts link (as an alternate way - especially since there are way fewer steps to be able to figure out the underlying data), so that it is easy for any member who is new (or old) to the thread to be able to see the underlying data very quickly (if they so choose).
751  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 17, 2024, 04:33:52 AM
I will grant that we might not have realized that the last 16 months had been a bull market until either mid-2023 or maybe it did not sink in with enough evidence until around October 2023... but the fact of the matter is that any investment strategies that you had been employing in bitcoin in the last 16 months had not been during a bear market.
Investing for 16 months is not really wise for me. Because here it is possible to make profit only by planning and investing for 16 months, it may not be correct, many times I think some part should be invested regularly. It should be planned to invest for a period of at least 3 to 5 years so that no matter what stage the market goes through, the investment will continue and the profit will always increase.

You are reading me out of context.  I was talking about anyone who may have been investing in bitcoin in the last 16 months has been investing in a bull market, and even if you have intentions to invest longer than 16 months, there surely are quite a few forum members who are participating in this thread who started in the last 16 months.

Furthermore, your forum registration date is coming upon 5 years, so maybe you are getting close to 5 years of investing into BTC.?

By the way, another thing that I frequently mention is that anyone who considers himself as an investor in BTC and buys new BTC should have a plan to invest 4-10 years or longer for any new purchases that he makes, otherwise from my point of view, he would be considered a speculator rather than an investor on those new purchases if he is not able to consider an investment timeline of at least 4 years.
752  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: March 17, 2024, 04:27:36 AM
[edited out]
Follow the link in the header of each column, and look down in the lower right of the page for "Export   CSV , XLSX"

I tried that already, and I don't understand it.  Maybe if you just keep a link to the bitcoincharts page, then that might be helpful to some members who might come later, especially since the bitcoincharts raw data is very understandable.
753  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2024, 04:21:04 AM
Too much ChartBuddy...
Too quiet in these here parts.
Calm before next pump?
#presundayhaiku
This correction is very much expected. I am happy that I saw another All Time high.
Halving is coming next month. So another ATH in coming months.
NO problema.  Buy them back.

It takes a while to get used to selling BTC, but when you are multitudes or even magnitudes in profits, and also if you have gotten to a status that you know that you have accumulated enough (and/or more than enough), then it becomes easier and easier to shave some off here and there at various points... and if you sell a small enough amount you realize that you still have plenty.

Saylor should be in the same camp as me... but he is not.

something is wrong with him.

You don't need to be like Saylor.. at some point, you have enough BTC.. and you can start to shave some off.

Don't get me wrong.  From what I have come to understand, it is not like Saylor is living any kind of deprived life materially, so yeah, he seems to have plenty of resources to just live.. so he seems to be making some other kind of a point by wanting to gather as many coins as he can.

But normies like us (royal perhaps?) should not necessarily need to live like that. 

At some point we have enough and we have more than enough.. and there should be no problem to set some free.. and to let someone else buy them..and get involved in dee cornz.
It's not easy to buy back bitcoins which you sold at adequate profit or it may take considerable time to buy back your coins. Like those who bought bitcoin when it went down to 20k and sold them in current bull run of 73k won't be easily buy those bitcoins back.
Saylor strategy about Bitcoin is working fine. He has 193,000 Bitcoins bought at 6 billion usd and his current holdings has value of 13 Billion. So as long as his strategy is working, he doesn't have to worry at all.
https://news.bitcoin.com/microstrategys-bitcoin-portfolio-value-soars-to-13-2-billion-marking-a-116-gain/

You seem to be out of the loop regarding Saylor.. especially sine that article is from the beginning of March.. 

Saylor had 193k BTC as of the beginning of March, but right around March 10, he announce that he (MSTR) bought another 12k BTC for more than $800 million, which would bring their total to 205BTC  And then a few days after that, he announced that he was raising another $500 million to buy more bitcoin presumptively this week and maybe MSTR will end up purchasing more than 5k more BTC with that $500 million.  You can see some of the latest MSTR updates in fillipppone's thread on the topic.

Saylor strategy about Bitcoin is working fine. He has 193,000 Bitcoins bought at 6 billion usd and his current holdings has value of 13 Billion. So as long as his strategy is working, he doesn't have to worry at all.
Saylor's strategy?

It's what many of us have been preaching for years:

Buy, hodl, don't sell unless you must, get rich in the long run.

Easy peasy.

Saylor is not doing these things in any kind of easy peasy and/or normal way.  He is a bit obsessed.

Saylor strategy about Bitcoin is working fine. He has 193,000 Bitcoins bought at 6 billion usd and his current holdings has value of 13 Billion. So as long as his strategy is working, he doesn't have to worry at all.
Saylor's strategy?

It's what many of us have been preaching for years:

Buy, hodl, don't sell unless you must, get rich in the long run.

Easy peasy.
...not exactly. MSTR is levered 2.2X, which means that IF bitcoin goes to roughly 31-32K, the intrinsic value of MSTR stock would approach zero.
They would probably not go bust, but they would probably lose 70-90% of their market cap in this scenario.
How likely is the "deleveraging"..maybe unlikely right now, albeit JPM started making noises about it.
https://decrypt.co/221873/microstrategy-bitcoin-buys-severe-deleveraging-jp-morgan
Maybe they want "in" on this deal, lol.

I doubt that it is as easy to break MSTR as JP Morgan would like to speculate, and maybe that is what Saylor is trying to get some of the BIG cats to do, which surely will bring the destruction and demise of the BIG cats a lot faster than they are already on a worse train than the bitcoin train seems to be the place to be, even if Saylor is seeming a wee bit psycho in recent times..

You threw out a lot of smart ideas, and then your last sentence 1BTC=1BTC makes no sense (even though a lot of people say some variation of that in order to attempt to mean something like only BTC matters, which is surely a known logical fallacy even though peeps still get pleasures out of saying that).
It may not make much sense, true but the stability is unparalleled.

Beyond that, I think people are looking for something that doesn't really exist in more than a transitory and ephemeral manner.

In my potentially simplified thinking, it has got to be referred in the context of something else that exists rather than referring to itself, and that might be part of the reason that we talk about BTC in terms of dollars in this thread, in order to attempt to have some common ground, even though the dollar is seeming to get run into the ground itself.. but it still can serve as a decent reference until we get something better, which of course, we are likely going to be talking more and more about satoshis since it seems that so many folks are not gong to be able to get a whole bitcoin, yet for sure we are still going to be living in confusing times for many years to come - at least in terms of the dollar reference and some of the desperateness that even seems to exist within seeming dollar guardians (Cantillians?).

Wait to buy bitcoin.

Buy bitcoin and wait.

No need to make it sound so boring, and there are probably other things that you can do while waiting.. such as eat a sandwich.
754  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: March 17, 2024, 03:38:13 AM
You might have a good point about the top 5 traded currencies might be more important than other considerations.. so I would be open to the idea of changing it to the top 5 currencies based on trade volume.  Based on that coinhills website, the Canadian Dollar is really far down the list (#18), so it does not seem as relevant based on such trade volume considerations.
You might want to consider Canada's place in the Bitcoin community.

Yes, Singapore may have a greater exchange trading volume but does that make it more important here in Bitcointalk?

How many of Canada's Bitcoiners use exchanges all that often. Many of us have been involved for so long that we don't trade unnecessarily and when we do there's a good chance it's going to be over the counter or under the table. Most probably simply hodl.

How many BCT members come from Canada as compared to Singapore or some of the other countries on Coinhills' list?

It probably depends on what "we" might be wanting to see in the data - and if they are reflective of actual BTC trading activities going on in the world.  I would be more concerned about if trading in any particular currency is fake to be more important to figuring out its non-importance rather than including for reasons that might not be easy to justify...

Do we want to limit the number to 5 currencies?.. is there something meaningful in terms of choosing based on something other than volume?  The Coinhill list seems to be trade volume that is based on all 89 exchanges that are listed through its site; it is not based on any particular exchange.. if there might be some other way of figuring out trade volume but yeah, you are not seeming to like the idea of trade volume in terms of importance...

I won't be taking Canada off this list, but I could see rotating the GBP and JPY with maybe South Africa, and Brazil.

What about the Korean Won?  I personally think volume is important, but I am not that attached to the idea, since the main thing that I look at is the dollar... at least most of the time.

~snip~
For some reason the green is missing in this table (the oldest date).  

You might have a good point about the top 5 traded currencies might be more important than other considerations.. so I would be open to the idea of changing it to the top 5 currencies based on trade volume.  Based on that coinhills website, the Canadian Dollar is really far down the list (#18), so it does not seem as relevant based on such trade volume considerations.

I understand that the top 5 based on trade volume could fluctuate, but on that website it does seem that the top 4 have more of a distance from the 5th place, which likely the 5th place will fluctuate a lot more.... since the 5th one is currently under 1,000 BTC traded.. at least for today...maybe we might consider over a longer period of time in order to analyze if trade volume might change very much in terms of putting which ones into the top 5?

So yeah the top 5based on today's trade volume would be 1) the dollar 2) the Korean Won 3) JPY  4) EUR.... 5) SGD.... I am not exactly attached to any of the non-dollar currencies, but it does seem to be interesting to see what the top traded volume coins might be doing (to the extent that the trade volume is determined to not be fake).  Prior to the 2016 China crack down on exchanges at that time, the CNY was trading like 10x anyone else, but then we realized that as with many things chinese, there was a lot of fakeness to it.

I imagine that once we figure out which currencies to retain in the charts, you probably would not want to be switching very frequently.. .. so I am not sure if there might be a better way of choosing which ones to retain, except based on something like trade volume.. and perhaps even better if there were a way to look at trade volume over a longer period of time to see if there might be a consistent set in the top 5... maybe in the last 3-6 months.. or even weekly for the last 3-6 months.
I don't know what you're talking about with the green.  

The green is present in the latest table.

|  61  2021-03-13  59670 |

If you look at dooglus' code, that this project was launched with, the green part never shows up.  We're talking some real feature creep here.   Cheesy  Translation, I haven't figured that out yet.  Back to work. Smiley

Even if you haven't figured it out. There is green there, and maybe the green could also have bold.. since it is a little bit difficult to see sometimes, it is not always very obvious that it is green.

 Oh and changing the currency is fairly simple now, provided bitcoinity has daily data for the past 5 years.

I am glad you got it figured out... and are you (and maybe everyone else) inclined to think that maxing out at 5 currencies per table is reasonable?

~snip~it looks really nice good work
Thank you.   Smiley
I do have two questions regarding the data sources.  One, if the numbers line up, would anyone be opposed, to getting all the data from bitcoinity?  And not have to deal with the current bitcoincharts.com USD source site, that has invalid credentials that need to be bypassed?  

I suppose that if it is easier for you to get it all from one source, then that would be a good idea.  I still have not figured out the raw data that is on bitcoinity, and so maybe it would be good to still include a link to the bitcoincharts.com source site so that anyone could look at the raw data there... it is kind of nice to see the raw data... and I personally like to look at it prior to seeing the actual final results for the day (before the day closes).

Two, what should be done if a date entry in the past is missing.  Currently there is a JPY day's worth of data missing, far outside the top 100 ratings, from like last year.  The script will not run without a number.  Should I just repeat the previous day's data, which is what I did this time.  Or average the days' data surrounding the missing day?  I guess if it's not going to make the top 100 list, and we're not doing any sort of moving average, the 2nd question can be disregarded.  But full disclosure is good, so there it is.  EDIT: Two days, 2023-08-05, and 2023-08-26.  I went back as far as possible over 1200 days, before stopping at the next missing day, 2020-10-12.

You seem to have this part figured out, and if the dates are outside of the top 100, then I cannot imagine how that would end up screwing up anything within the top 100 list..
755  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 17, 2024, 02:50:41 AM
[edited out]
I know I've not been that long in bitcoin but at least if this bull run is over I would count that as one cycle cause I started accumulating during the bear market and one thign I noticed is how much it is hard to hold in such market conditions and how it can affect the best of us especially those that have a major portion of their asset or Value stored in bitcoin,

I am confused.  I thought that you ONLY recently started accumulating bitcoin.. so if so, you were not investing in a bear market.

And, even if you started investing in the last 16 months, it was not a bear market.

I will grant that we might not have realized that the last 16 months had been a bull market until either mid-2023 or maybe it did not sink in with enough evidence until around October 2023... but the fact of the matter is that any investment strategies that you had been employing in bitcoin in the last 16 months had not been during a bear market.

You cannot proclaim that it was a bear market merely because it was below the previous ATH.. the fact of the matter of the last 16 months is that the BTC price had been pretty much going up the whole time even though there were some corrections in there and some of us might not have had been clear about it having had been a bull market the whole time.

In other words it is a bunch of bullshit when people are mislabelling what kind of market that we were in....

Now, if you had been in the market in late 2021 and through out 2022, then you would  have been in a bear market, yet you would not have realized that you were in a bear market until maybe some time around May 2022 it became somewhat clear that we were in a bear market.

I will grant you that we don't really necessarily know what kind of market we are in at the time that we are in it, so sometimes we should be talking with some caution about what kind of market that we are in, especially since laboring what kind of market we are in is a lagging indicator, and the mere fact that we might be in a bull market and there are some corrections in the middle of the bull market, the market does not change merely because there is a correction, even though we might not know where we are at, even though at any given time, we can see that we are in an uptrend or a correction or maybe a consolidation range.

Anyhow, part of my point is that the dynamics are different if you are getting in and you are buying while the BTC prices are going up as contrasted if you are buying while they are going down.

Now if you are mixing your actions by buying and selling (in other words trading) then that is another story, but if you are strictly buying, then you have a dynamic that either your holdings are continuously going into less and less profits (in a bear market) or you have the dynamics that your holdings are increasingly in profits (in a bull market).

Maybe you need to explain your timeline again in order for me or anyone else to understand when you were buying and what you were doing because my sense (or memory.. which might be faulty) is that you have not even been buying more than 16 months.. so therefore you were likely buying in a bull market, even if you might not have had realized it.. but feel free to correct me if my memory is wrong.

although I was so early I've had thoughts of how the old folks manages go persiver through all those hard times and one thign that came to my mind is how they all had a personal conviction about their investment In bitcoin and how they all consistently continued in their buying of bitcoin in all market conditions.

There is no way to answer for everyone, but if you are buying (or establishing a position in) bitcoin, then you could front load lump sum, DCA and/or buy on dips, and so maybe you could have a target allocation that you are wanting to reach in light of the rest of your investment portfolio... so if you initially establish what your target allocation is going to be, then it could make some differences if you are acquiring your position while the BTC position is going up versus acquiring it while the BTC prices are going up.

If you are not sure about what your target is, then you would just have a budget and just continue to accumulate BTC.. within the budget, and if the budget is not very BIG, then it could take several years before you try to consider or figure out what your target level of  accumulation is going to be.

If you are worrying about getting in and out then you are trading/gambling and not investing.. so yeah, it likely depends on what kind of mindset you come to your investment... and of course, anyone is likely going to become nervous when the price is moving around a lot and he is still trying to establish his position since it could take a year or two to establish.. or maybe if there is lump sum investing up front, it still could take 6 months or more to establish a position, but if the price is moving around a lot then there could be some rethinking that ends up happening becaue the price is moving around a lot and perhaps the movements of the price could challenge the investment thesis. if the price moves had not been anticipated.

IMO in anything one wants to achieve great result in life persistence is one attribute that we must have even when thigns are quite against us, and I think one way to actually reduce the impact of those hard times is to have a long term plan for your investment, cause if its a short term or the time duration is too short like a year or two its so possible that your investment can still be mutually experiencing one side of the trend like the bear or maybe you bought at very high prices, you would most likely have feelings of failure in your investment but if you had a longer term plan its easier to have patience cause your approach to bitcoin won't be to solve a short term problem but for a longer term plan, like maybe reaching a fuck you status or retirement.

Well if you would have started out by buying towards the top of the market let's say at various times in 2021.  It could have been early 2021 and then the price goes up and then drops and then goes up again and then drops. or even if you started towards the end of 2021, then you might have had front-loaded your investment, so then your cost per BTC would have had been quite high, and so when the price ends up dropping more than 70%, then you may well be a lot in the negative, and even if you keep buying, maybe you do not have enough money to really off set the amount that you bought at or near the top, so you end up staying in the negative for a couple of years.

A similar thing happened to Bukele (and El Salvador)  He started buying in 2021, so he ended up buying a lot coins at or near the top, and sure it could have had been worse for him, but he (on behalf of El Salvador) had something in the mid $40ks as his average cost per BTC  when the price dropped down to $15,479, and at some point he (El Salvador) resumed buying BTC and even announced in November 2022 that they (El Salvador) were going to resume buying at 1 BTC per day.

So I think it takes some level of commitment to continue to buy at a rate that you believe is reasonable, even while your BTC holdings are in the negative, overall and on average.  So if you keep buying while the price is below your average costs, each time you buy more BTC, you are bringing down your average costs per BTC... even though it may be just little by little, but then it does not take as much for the BTC price to go up in order for your BTC holdings to get back into profits.

From my little experience I know that it has been way easier for me to have patience and be consistent cause I know that my plan is for a much further future so I just tend to keep my eyes of profit and loss and focus more on accumulating bitcoin.

It may well be similar for anyone.  If you have decently strong confidence that each new BTC purchase that you make is for 4-10 years or longer, and so even if you have older coins and newer coins and each of your purchases have differing costs, you still can also average them out and there may well be some excitement to be continuing to buy and bringing down your average cost per BTC, even if your holdings is still in the negative in the process of going through such ongoing BTC purchases.


By the way, any guys waiting for dips, now we have slightly more than 12% (from $73,794 down to $64,780, so far). Who knows if the BTC price is going to go lower on this particular correction.
756  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2024, 12:06:04 AM
It just depends what you're measuring against. USD has definitely suffered inflation but other currencies have also. You could also measure against gold, some basket of currencies or whatever you want. One measure sometimes used in the UK was the Mars Bar as its value was somewhat stable over time (that may have changed though).

However, if you want a stable measure, as always, 1BTC=1BTC.

You threw out a lot of smart ideas, and then your last sentence 1BTC=1BTC makes no sense (even though a lot of people say some variation of that in order to attempt to mean something like only BTC matters, which is surely a known logical fallacy even though peeps still get pleasures out of saying that).

Of course, there could be a measure in terms of hookers, Lambos and blow, and/or Big Macs... which makes more sense than 1 BTC = 1 BTC.


Insert meme:  My BTC are only worth what they were worth 10 days ago.. cry, cry cry...  Cry Cry Cry Cry
757  Economy / Speculation / Re: Top 20 days for Bitcoin on: March 16, 2024, 11:46:22 PM
| Rank  BitStamp   USD/BTC    | Rank  Kraken     GBP/BTC   | Rank  Kraken     EUR/BTC   | Rank  Kraken     CAD/BTC   | Rank  Kraken     JPY/BTC     |
|   1  2024-03-13  72901 USD | | 1  2024-03-13  57001 GBP| | 1  2024-03-13  66641 EUR| | 1  2024-03-13  98050 CAD| | 1  2024-03-13  10738120 JPY|
.......
| 100  2021-03-12  56712 USD | |100  2021-04-07  41321 GBP| |100  2021-10-13  48206 EUR| |100  2021-10-14  70848 CAD| |100  2023-12-06   6451442 JPY|
                                                                               * * Chart Explanation * *                                                                                

                                                                                                               GoBTCGo™
EDIT: Flipped GBP and EUR for consistency.  The next biggest currency volume after USD seems to be Korean Wan, JPY, EUR, Singapore Dollar, GBP, and then Brazilian Real from this source https://www.coinhills.com/market/currency/

For some reason the green is missing in this table (the oldest date).  

You might have a good point about the top 5 traded currencies might be more important than other considerations.. so I would be open to the idea of changing it to the top 5 currencies based on trade volume.  Based on that coinhills website, the Canadian Dollar is really far down the list (#18), so it does not seem as relevant based on such trade volume considerations.

I understand that the top 5 based on trade volume could fluctuate, but on that website it does seem that the top 4 have more of a distance from the 5th place, which likely the 5th place will fluctuate a lot more.... since the 5th one is currently under 1,000 BTC traded.. at least for today...maybe we might consider over a longer period of time in order to analyze if trade volume might change very much in terms of putting which ones into the top 5?

So yeah the top 5based on today's trade volume would be 1) the dollar 2) the Korean Won 3) JPY  4) EUR.... 5) SGD.... I am not exactly attached to any of the non-dollar currencies, but it does seem to be interesting to see what the top traded volume coins might be doing (to the extent that the trade volume is determined to not be fake).  Prior to the 2016 China crack down on exchanges at that time, the CNY was trading like 10x anyone else, but then we realized that as with many things chinese, there was a lot of fakeness to it.

I imagine that once we figure out which currencies to retain in the charts, you probably would not want to be switching very frequently.. .. so I am not sure if there might be a better way of choosing which ones to retain, except based on something like trade volume.. and perhaps even better if there were a way to look at trade volume over a longer period of time to see if there might be a consistent set in the top 5... maybe in the last 3-6 months.. or even weekly for the last 3-6 months.
758  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: El Salvador has become the first country to make #Bitcoin legal tender! 🇸🇻 on: March 16, 2024, 11:08:45 PM
....
you just have no one to care about. Where he doesn't understand he's in gamble it looks like. He may spend say 0.01% to pay coders on github. Last time i dealt with bitcoin team it was a problem to receive 120 bucks from them. you're son of a bitch perhaps, you know

You are speaking in gobbledy-gook.  Whether we are talking about an individual, an institution or a government, there are going to be similar principles that involve considering how much income should be used on expenses versus investing, and in there can also be questions regarding how to use debt in terms of investing. Of course, a government's expenses is going to have overlap with investing because some of the expenses that a government has might not be considered to be consumption but various choices regarding how to invest whether it is in infrastructure or in people based services, crime prevention or even attracting investments into the country.   

You likely do not have any fucking clue in regards to the various balances that El Salvador is making and the extent to which you seem to be presuming that its maintaining investments in bitcoin amounts to some kind of overextension of its resources or if it is putting its finances in some kind of peril based on the kind of investment that bitcoin is.

In 2021, they already committed to going down the bitcoin road and so it seems logical that they would continue to go down such road especially during times like these in which their BTC holdings are in profits rather than being in the negative, and many of us already know that the first 4 years investing in bitcoin can result in some questionable price performance, and there are many of us who have taken a whole 4 year cycle to clearly get into profits, and those bitcoin holders who sold as soon as they got into profits frequently tended to regret such short-sighted decisions, and so it is good that El Salvador is not inclined to listen to your dumbass and seemingly ill-informed advise..

And maybe you need to talk a bit more about your own personal relations to bitcoin rather than trying to advise El Salvador what they should do when they are likely in a way better financial situation than you likely are if you cannot even seem to recognize the value of holding and accumulating bitcoin during times like these. 

You have been registered on the forum since November 2015, and so you should be in really great BTC profits by now, no? 

Just think about it, if you had been investing $100 per week into bitcoin since your forum registration date, you would have had invested $43.6, and you would have accumulated nearly 17.1 BTC (currently valued at right around $1.15 million, which surely would not be a bad place to be.   Have you been able to match or exceed those kinds of investment results with your system of investing, so that you are able to advise Bukele about your own secret investment approach and strategies that is able to supposedly outperform a straight-forward and basic DCA investment into BTC?

in circumstances he is i would have sold whole thing right now. He begin to spend his luck now i think
So from your own understanding now, when the market is bearish

Wake the fuck up Dunamisx.  The BTC market is currently not bearish, so maybe you should figure out how to describe where we are at.  We had an ATH of $73,794 two days go, and currently the BTC price is bouncing around $66.5k, with a local low of $65,569 (about 11.1111% from the top). ..

Average trade weighted volume for today is still within the top 10 of all time highs.. so how the fuck is that bearish?

we should rush to sell and not to hodl, this is a very wrong practice and those that engage in such only end up being losers because they cant afford to make profits when its expected of them to hold and wait till the market rises, we are still having more bullish trends ahead than we are sing currently and we can also consider the rate at which bitcoin is going to be at the pace of running towards a new all time highs as many as possible before the end of this month, we shouldn't focuses on bear alone, we have halving ahead as well which is to give more hope for bull markets coming.

I largely agree with your other points - except  drop your bullshit bear talking points when no bear exists (yet)..

We been in a bullish trend for the last 16 months.. and yeah, maybe it was not really clear until about October 2023 (5 months ago that we were in a bullish trend) but nonetheless, it is misleading to talk about BTC as if it switches back and forth on a whim - even though sometimes it is not clear if we are in a bear or a bull market, but clearly even from your comment, you are assessing that we are in a bull market, but merely a correction, so why use bull and bear terms to describe short term changes in momentum.. ..

yeah, there sometimes can be differences of opinion in regards to calling if the trend has actually changed. .or there can be bear or bull fake outs, and surely the term bear and bull can be used to describe those pushing for up or those pushing for down, but the overall trend does not flip flop from bull to bear to bull to bear so easily, even though a lot of people (perhaps traders) make those kinds of assessments.. and fuck traders.. an overwhelming majority of people getting involved in bitcoin would be better off, as you suggest by largely buying and holding rather than trading these kinds of price moves.. .. DCA and buying on the dip and things that involve BTC accumulation and HODL rather than selling.. so your assessment seems to be right about those points.

in circumstances he is i would have sold whole thing right now. He begin to spend his luck now i think
So from your own understanding now, when the market is bearish we should rush to sell and not to hodl, this is a very wrong practice and those that engage in such only end up being losers because they cant afford to make profits when its expected of them to hold and wait till the market rises, we are still having more bullish trends ahead than we are sing currently and we can also consider the rate at which bitcoin is going to be at the pace of running towards a new all time highs as many as possible before the end of this month, we shouldn't focuses on bear alone, we have halving ahead as well which is to give more hope for bull markets coming.
Sometime you don't blame people for how they analyse the market and take profits,  sometimes most of those people that make such statements are all doing so based on their knowledge a d approach to bitcoin holdings, sometime they after the money and could easily take profit and walk away but for someonwho have been around the market for a long time such short-term market movement won't worth being considered to risk your entire bitcoin holding on and at that, you can easily look forward or look away from the present bitcoin price and focus on the long term profits and the confidence that comes with long term bitcoin accumulations.

Anyways, there is no point trying to spoon feed anyone about the the advantages of holding bitcoin for long term, since we have seen from past records already how bitcoin have made several significant moves and recorded alot of positive price benchmark each time.

Surely many weak hands can get shaken during times like these, and part of the problem of getting the BTC price to move down could end up causing the bears to lose a lot of their coins in these kinds of attempts to either keep the BTC price down or to cause it to go down further with the assistance of weak hands to help them to get the price to go down and to stay down as long as is possible so the bears can buy their coins back.. so yeah most of the longer time hodlers realize that these are times to either HODL through the situation or to buy more.

when you bet country budget +50% is a jackpot already. Last time i've checked the price (2 days ago) it was around ath so i do not care here about what's going on right now.

That is why you are most likely a no coiner or a low coiner, poor and not very smart when it comes to knowing what is dee cornz, even though you have been registered on the forum for about 8.5 years and you could have been right around 24x profits with the employment of a relatively straight-forward DCA investment approach to this here greatest wealth transfer in history phenomena, aka dee cornz.

No coiners and low coiners like you tend to be bitter about how little profits that you have been able to skim off of bitcoin over the years because you cannot figure out when to be in bitcoin and when to be out of bitcoin (hint, hint, it is almost always better to stay in bitcoin rather than screwing around with trying to time when to be in or out) and you consider a mere raking of 50% profits to be something that any smart person (about bitcoin) would actually actualize in times like this...

 At best, you sound lost.. and most likely you sound disingenuine to be coming into this thread and acting like you are smart or something and suggesting that times like these are for selling dee cornz..
759  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy the DIP, and HODL! on: March 16, 2024, 10:16:04 PM
[edited out]
With this we can differentiate between investment money and the money we use in the real world. So there is no need to spend the money we have invested in Bitcoin to simply meet the shortages that are occurring in the real world.
I even experience it now. When you feel down in the real world and don't have money to just buy food, it turns out there are still neighbors who give you a little gift that can be used to buy food.
So the neighbors don't know how much assets are in my postfolio, and let it remain a secret. while the daily money remains from the actual results of work.
while assets in bitcoin remain and are not sold for nothing. especially now that the asset is still being developed and is still accumulating more bitcoins.

It seems what you are saying is a fair interpretation, and it is up to you if you feel that you are able to invest and still potentially be a financial burden on others in terms of meeting your basic needs.. and I suppose referring to food and lodging as the most fundamental.   

But, yeah if you want any investment to last there is a need to be able to create and maintain some kind of cushion between the money for your living expenses and the investment, and it seems that we have already been discussing that the larger your investment becomes, then the more need that you are likely going to have to make sure that you have sufficient finances so that you don't have to dip into it at any time except your own choosing, which I am suggesting to be 4-10 years or longer, and if you are not able to invest for that long, then you might not really be in a situation to be gambling with whatever money that you might need for your living expenses.

So if there can be ways to figure out how to increase your income or to cut your expenses, then you are in a better position to be able to invest, yet since we are participating in a quasi-anonymous forum, we cannot always know the abilities (or lack thereof) for some of our members to be able to earn an income or to keep their income steady or even to maybe have some abilities to save up some extra cash if their income is not very reliable.

[edited out]
Another thing I hope or I advise you to provide a detailed explanation or understanding to you about what investment really is, for the problem of goals yes we all as investors have the same goal at the end of the engagement which is to achieve or get a profit, but I hope you also explain to him in terms of risk, don't let your friend tend to always think about profit because the worry is that he could be too worried when bitcoin experiences a significant bearish or correction phase which in turn could make your friend act instantly to thwart or stop his bitcoin accumulation plan that he has been maintaining, because I see events like this are not uncommon when someone is too focused on his expectations.

I know that some folks might be worried about the extent to which their BTC holdings are in profits, and I frequently say that the first BTC I bought was not in profits for over 3 1/4 years from November 2013 until March 2017; however, my overall average cost per BTC had various periods of being in profits, and maybe some ambiguity in regards to the level of profits depending on how well it was calculated during close to 3 years before the average costs per BTC had clearly gone into profits.

So there can be long term periods in which an investment like bitcoin might not be in profits, yet we can still figure out position size and investing techniques that involve ongoing buying and hopes to have more options in the future, including hoping to be profitable in the future.. while realizing that profits are not guaranteed, even in an investment as great as bitcoin... but we are likely going to have better chances of being in profits in the longer term if we continue to exercise prudent, persistent, reasonable and ongoing  BTC accumulation practices.

In other words the main way to prepare for the BTC price to go up is by continuing to buy BTC, even if some of those purchases might raise the cost of your BTC and also even if sometimes the BTC price moves against you after you made purchases that ended up being at higher prices than the current prices... just keep buying with reasonable persistence.. and perhaps study bitcoin to attempt to get more conviction in the strength of bitcoin's long term investment thesis.
760  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: HODL bitcoins, you can do it! Look at HODL camp map to build up strong hands on: March 16, 2024, 09:43:26 PM
1) whimpy low coiner

2) sufficiently aggressive low coiner

3) an overly aggressive low coiner
A lot of investors today who are number 2 started off overly aggressive and bought into the different altcoins that promised to be the next Bitcoin. Likely, they entered the market during a bull run when crypto was at the top of everyone's lips like in late 2017 and dives right into the ICO bubble which was growing larger everyday.
After getting burnt a couple of times and losing some money, maybe gaining some more, but over the next couple of months they moved towards more stable coins like Bitcoin and aggressively went into it, moving most bb their profits from other investments into it.

The first guy usually stays the same.
"The first guy usually stays the same."

Interesting point.  I consider the whimpy low coiner to have potential, since he has already acted.

We have such a common problem with the no coiner who fails to act, and so maybe there are different kinds of no coiners too.. but a low coiner has gotten further than any no coiner who has failed to act.   We know that another term for no coiner is pre coiner, yet there are still some who might be teetering upon having interest in bitcoin and others who don't really invest into anything until everyone they know and their dog is doing it, and then they join.. yes those ones are maybe the laggards.
yeah you are right and thanks for the clarity of different low coiners, but recently I think I'm among the category of the second one, but at first I was among the category of the third one , overly aggressive low coiner , because at that time I involved my self in a of scheme, like trading and involving myself with alot of shitcoins thinking they would make me rich quick and earn me some goot profit, but at the end they did the opposite, got me reckt and I got to learn the hard way. But ever since have been gaining more knowledge about how Bitcoin investment or holdings works . I now find myself being among the sufficiently aggressive with the help of sir @JJG and some other users in this forum I'm now able to Accumulate bitcoin and same time manage my financial situation.
I think this post now add clarity to how I felt mid last year. I was indeed number 2 and I'm glad I was as it made me cover up some gaps by combining both the DCA method and buying the dips. As someone who did not start building my bitcoin asset early, it was not a good feeling realizing that we were a year to bitcoin halving, and ETF approval where it was expected that Bitcoin will make a new all time high yet I did not have a good bitcoin portfolio. This was what motivated me to suspending a lot of activities costing me money and channeling those funds to Bitcoin. I achieved my target anyways but not as much as I would have achieved if I started investing way back in the bear season.

Better late than never, and you are likely still going to feel early, but it might take a cycle or more before you start to feel that way... that is as long as you can keep up your investing in bitcoin, and yeah whether you are going to be ready to transfer out of accumulation after a whole cycle is something that I would not really know. ..and maybe you don't really know yet either, because you might have some further targets with the passage of time. I believe that we already discussed that sometimes there can be some early initial goals that are set and then when they are achieved, then they spark the setting of newer goals that might be related but they are slightly different based on our new circumstances, including our assessment of BTC's price performance during that time, too.
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