Is this not a bitcoin thread?

I did not realize that this thread or any other bitcoin thread would have required to study up on some stupid-ass nonsense shitcoin in order to participate...   In other words, I have no obligation to study nonsense, and the burden is on you and your other doge coin supporting dweebs whether we are talking about members of the forum or musk or otherwise to establish some kind of assertion that doge coin is better than bitcoin or that elon's supposed preference for doge coin has hardly any relevance to the ways of the world except that he seems to be spouting out nonsense about nonsense.

In other words, I stand by my earlier posts, and there is no reason fpr me to read or look into anything that Musk or anyone else has to say about such shitcoin as doge coin in order for my posts to stand on their own for what points that I had made.  

If there comes some day 5-10 years down the road that miraculously doge coin is starting to supplant bitcoin, then maybe I will decide to look into it and to get into it at that time.. but surely such nonsense has a long-ass way to go to even come close to bitcoin, and does not matter what that dweeb elon or any other supposed doge coin supporter says or does.. but until then you (and the other doge coin distracted folks) are wasting your brain power on such nonsense if you actually have any brain power.

Still seems like a BIG so what? to me.

Sure, you are saying that the difficulty is adjusting in about 7 days from now, but surely it already took a few difficulties since the middle of May (which was a bit over 5.5 weeks ago.. as I type) to actually get from the highest difficulty level that it has ever been which actually seems to have been 25

(683,424   2021-05-13 03:58:58   25,046,487,590,083 - 25.05 T   + 21.53 %   0x170b3ce9   08 min 14 s)   

rather than 26.3 that you mentioned.

But sure.. I agree the current estimate for the difficulty to adjust is for about 7 days into the future is around 16.. which also seems like a BIG so what?

So in the end, bitcoin's hashrate seems to be dropping to down to where it was about a little over a year ago and in March 2020, it first crossed over the 16 threshold.

620,928   2020-03-09 06:05:17   16,552,923,967,337 - 16.55 T   + 6.88 %   0x17110119   09 min 22 s

Does not seem to be the time to panic, quite yet.. maybe after another 6 months to a year.. but I am not going to presume any kind of death spiral in mining there seem to be a lot of folks ready, willing and able to mine, even if the chines don't want to.. and sure maybe there will be some attempt to take out some other countries.. if they are so dumb.. is the USA going to take their lil selfies out of BTC mining with all the dumbass ESG bullshit.. Perhaps perhaps.. ?  Let's see if that card is played and then we can start to panic, alright?

It's almost as if you are creating a strawman argument here because no one has been saying that it is NOT possible to make some coin or various combinations of projects that might even co-opt bitcoin itself in various ways that makes bitcoin better.

The fact of the matter is there may well be a variety of coins and projects that are already better than bitcoin depending upon what it is that might be considered better - but also the fact of the matter is that for any project to overcome the bitcoin is not broken aspect of its functionality they better be at least 10 times better and perhaps even a higher magnitude than that.

In other words, so fucking what if some various coins or projects might be better at x, y and z including the fact that bitcoin may also either be able to incorporate improvements based on such better aspects - if they are actually better in such a way that reaches protocol change consensus.. which is also likely to be a decently sized level of agreement that has to be accomplished in order to be convinced that it is better to actually upgrade bitcoin rather than just leaving it "as is."

Another aspect does potentially allow projects to be linked to bitcoin or to be able to attempt to compete along  side bitcoin in order to potentially show that there is some kind of functionality or feature in bitcoin that might be missing and also suitable to potentially  employ into bitcoin .. were it actually to employ into bitcoin at a later date.. rather than having already missed out on some potential base layer functionality that would have had to have been started in the beginning.


Oh gawd.... 

Yeah sure you have stated a theoretical possibility and probably also put it in its likelihood of success - and would such supposed advancement rise to a high enough level of 10x or more better in order to justify moving over to it.. especially starting to work with such a piece of shit that is just a clone of bitcoin anyhow and then to say it is better than bitcoin.. and then if there are some actual aspects that come out of such vomit inducing project that are actually so much MOAR better, then why wouldn't bitcoin just add those onto its platform... seems like a kind of BIG whatever scenario that you are outlining because a money protocol is likely to converge upon one.. including a following of Gresham's law principles.. so it is difficult to conceive that there would end up being any kind of meaningful split that would suggest that the value is going to gravitate over to doge coin rather than bitcoin.. and probably would take years and years and years to figure out if something is more valuable and by then many of us bitcoin maximalists would have already gravitated over to doge coin, if it happens to be so much better... so who really cares, right? 

If individually we see doge coin as better then we will gravitate to it, or maybe do 50/50 for a while before moving over to it completely... so don't let the door hit you PrimeNumber7 or The Pharmacist on the way out. .. especially since you are the ones going first because you identified the value first... hahahahha  in other words, good luck with that.. you are going to need it... and a lot of it with that fuzzy thinking that you both seem to be employing.. but it is a free world and you have a right to chose to put your value whereever you believe is the greatest... kind of funny because I recall so many stupid twats arguing about bcash abc and later bcash SV as if they were actually adding value, and they were so fucking dumb as to be front row innovators and got out of bitcoin and reckt their dumb-asses by investing in stupid projects with little to no value thinking that value was actually going to gravitate into those dumb projects.

 

again.. good .luck if you believe that there is any kind of meaningful chance.. and even though I would usually suggest that if you believe that the chances are currently 1% to 2% then that is how much value that you should allocate to that piece of crap as compared with bitcoin.. put your money where your beliefs are.... and have fun staying poor, too.

Mums the word, Elwar.

 

For sure when you have a system that you have developed on paper, and then you start to put such system into practice, you are likely to have implementation learnings in terms of a few mistakes along the way, and also maybe some nervousness in both applying it and then maybe rethinking aspects of your system while you are plugging in details and applying it in terms of whether you might need to change your amounts, your increments or your spreads.

For me, I recall that I spent about a year and a half from November 2013 until about October 2015 just buying and accumulating BTC... I did not sell any BTC.. and if I did happen to sell some or even to gift some friends/relatives - I would replace those amounts within a relatively short period of time.. sometimes within 24 hours and other times it could take a few days before I ended up replacing any used amounts... and so the overall majority of my focus was on BTC accumulation ONLY through buying.

In around July/August 2015, I stared to create some systems "on paper" that would fold in selling on the way up that largely evolved into the system that I have evolved, tweaked and tailorized to myself and the direction (somewhat way beyond expectations) of the BTC market.  Yeah, of course, I had some bullish theories and even knew about various million dollar cases for bitcoin that even existed in 2013 so sure those bullish theories were in the back of my mind while attempting to approach the whole matter more conservatively in terms of just considering how some of the numbers might play out in a variety of both up and down scenarios - while presuming that long term have decent chances of continuing to go up and to be worth more down the road as compared with whatever price I was buying in or even at whatever price is my average cost per BTC..;. even while my overall portfolio was in the negative valuation for much of 2014/2015 and even arguably in various parts of 2016 - even though the profitability valuation of my BTC portfolio was starting to look a lot better by the time we got passed May 2016...




For sure.



I consider the matter to serve as kinds of brainstorming sessions, too... and mistakes are almost inevitable... hopefully they are not so severe as they wipe you out or even dig too much into your principle or take unnecessary risks, and of course, guys are going to have differing boundaries that they might set or risks that they might be willing to take for certain periods of time.. 



Many of us who have attempted to play this matter for a while have run into the problems of overextending in one direction or another... so sure the longer that you are able to work your system the more likely you should be able to both plan ahead for extremes and also to have either fiat on the low end or BTC on the high end stacked up in order to be prepared for both extremes and extremes that even go beyond your expectations of the extremes.

For example there may have been people who either got into bitcoin in late 2020 or even into January/February 2021. and no matter what they were doing, they may have developed a kind of complacency when BTC prices were above $50k for so damned long, which we may well measure starting in early-February until mid-May, so when BTC prices dipped to lower $50ks and even upper $40ks, there are a decent number of folks who blew their whole wadd on buying the dip, and I am not even ONLY picking on newbies even though newbies are way more vulnerable to such BTC price volatility issues - not because they are dumb or naive or anything but they have not really had any chance to build up their preparations.. for price moves in both directions (or either direction) so therefore there were likely a lot of BTC accumulator wannabes who had little to no money left when BTC prices went into the lower $40ks and lower than that, and sure there could have been some psychological troubles with that too in terms of being ready, willing and able to buy more BTC after such a considerable BTC price drop.

So maybe there were some folks who were able to man-up in some ways and others who happened to have some abilities to continue to buy based on incoming and ongoing cashflows, so sure we have been below $43k for going on 5 weeks now, so there have been some folks who had not already spent their future cashflow before it came in, so those kinds of folks have still been able to profit in some ways from the dip in terms of being ready, willing and able to continue to buy BTC as cashflow comes in.


Of course, you do not necessarily need to share too many details in this thread, but surely if you are attempting to learn as you go, and you are able to describe your situation in ways that are of interest to other members here, you might be able to use the brainstorming of this thread to help you to tweak your own practice and/or thinkenings about your approach...   Guys have varying approaches, and many times, personal differences such as timeline, cashflow, risk tolerance or even skills and abilities to plan, learn and tweak can put guys in much differing places even if there might still be some similar goals to attempt to accumulate BTC and not to gamble too much.. but many guys do have to fight their inclinations to gamble, too (even if they don't know it)... hahahaha..

So what would we consider UP or DOWN from here?

Might be a good time for Infofront to add my poll question request regarding which one is coming first, and I had set those amounts at $25k and $50k.. but that was a few days ago and prior to $30k support being breached... so yeah.. not sure if those would still be the numbers in question based on updated data.



More information never killed anybody, right?

never say never  talking to myself


I am not sure if your assertion is helpful or even if it would be correct to suggest whatever they (China) are capable of doing now is a reflection of what they could have done in the past, if they had tried.

Sure, China could have known that they have a card that they could play or could have played to attempt to control bitcoin, and we still do not have evidence that even if they would have attempted to play a card to "control bitcoin" in the past that the would have been successful, so even if they could have done it in the past, but they did not do it, and whether they would be successful to play such a control bitcoin card at this time is still to be determined both in terms of whether they will attempt to play such a card (if they have it) and if such a card play will be successful if they were to play it.

Lots of "ifs" in there richy... .if that's something like what you are getting at.

Strange way of framing the matter, though not really untrue.




Oh for sure any of us can be motivated by Gresham's law, even if we do not know what is Gresham's law.

People do it all the time.  They perceive certain kinds of values for spending and other kinds of values for holding, and surely if they run out of all the spendables, then they have no choice but to spend whatever they happen to have.



Well, only you can decide how much is enough and your various other personal factors in order to attempt to achieve your various targets including considering what your timeline might be, so if you have 4 years or more before you are going to need to draw upon your BTC, then it could well be justifiable to continue to buy on dips and to DCA.. .. but sure you need to have enough for the taxman too.. you would not want to get caught having to cash out of any of your BTC that is at any time except for your own choosing.

And, in regards to dust, it all has potentials to be adding up if your time horizon is long enough, and surely I have frequently said that a lot of investors are going to likely need to have at least a couple of bitcoin cycles in order to get to the point where they are starting to be in very decent profits.. and we can never really know whether we are at the bottom, the middle or the top.

I have told this story several times, Loyce, so I don't want to bore you with my repetition, but I do believe that it remains illustrative of various points that I want to make in terms of continuing to accumulate BTC until you are comfortable for where you are at.. and maybe even it can be good to become a bit over invested, especially if you happen to believe that BTC continues to have decent chances of being the fastest horse in the race...

Anyhow, in late 2014, I had considered that I was mostly at a level of BTC accumulation in which I had sufficiently reached my BTC accumulation goals.. which was 10%, so at that point, even though I continued to set up a reasonably modest DCA practice, I had ended up investing more into BTC during 2015 and even accumulating up to 13.5%-ish which would have been a kind of over accumulation because of exceeding my goal to reach 10% and because BTC prices largely remained way lower than my costs per BTC during that whole year (2015). 

Several times in 2015, I made purchases of $25 or some other stupidly modest amount, but sure, even $25 would have been 0.1BTC, and at the time, it seemed like just pocket change.. I mean I had some pretty heavy cashflow problems through about late January 2015 until about May 2015, so I had ONLY made a few BTC purchases during that time, but seems to me that by May 2015, some of my cashflow issues started to work themselves out, so I could resume buying BTC from time to time.  I did make a couple of BTC purchases in that January 2015 to May 2015 period, but relatively speaking they were pretty sparse based on cashflow issues that I had related to another business that I was in (and it was not a bitcoin related business).

So, if we look back to 2015, we are talking in the ballpark of 6 years, which is 1.5 bitcoin 4-year cycles.

I will also concede that I also was able to cheat a wee bit in my getting into bitcoin because when I came to the bitcoin table in late 2013, I had already established a decently sized investment portfolio that did not include bitcoin, so when I decided to get into bitcoin part of the initial motive was just to divert what I already had into bitcoin, and then by the time we were starting to get close to late 2014, I had decided to establish the amount that I was investing into bitcoin to 10%, but that was 10% of a set of funds that were already a decent size.. which could well put me in a bit of an advantage as compared with someone who is starting from scratch and it could take them 3 cycles or more before they really are able to reach their BTC accumulation goals.


Fuck that nonsense Loyce.  Of course, there is an advantage of lump sum investing, but a whole hell of a lot of people do not have a lump sum in which they can invest.

Sure, overall I agree with your point about lump sum first, but once you have invested, then you should be converting over to DCA with a regular amount on a regular basis.  Sure, you can save portions of your money for lump sum investing and for buying on dips, but if you hold back too much then you would be disadvantaged too.. so DCA is a really great practice because you neither know for sure which way the BTC price is going to go, and you do not have to stress out about attempting to guess, and surely you do not have to do an all or nothing approach, and likely I do not even need to show you the DCA chart, right?  From your time on the forum we could use 6.5 years or maybe 7 years as your BTC investment time line and figure out if you have at least matched that level of return with your own investment style over the years (talking about the percentage of returns).

Ok... what the heck.. here goes.  I plugged in your BTC investing start date for DCA'ing as February 26, 2015, and then I put $20 per week for your amount.  So what do we get? We get that you could have been able to get around 35.6x returns on your DCA way of investing into bitcoin.  Hopefully, whatever you are doing is getting in the ballpark of that... I am not suggesting that some of us might not make mistakes along the way or that your performance could have been either higher or lower than the DCA.. but if your system is not getting somewhere close to DCA then there is a lot of need to question your system.. and don't be knocking on DCA in terms of DCA historically being a very powerful strategy... and there is no real evidence that you are going to be able to outperform DCA in the future.... especially if you are not already sitting on a lump sum that you can put into bitcoin right now, as I type this post... or some reasonably prompt period thereafter.

Personally, I do not recommend selling BTC in order to accumulate more BTC until you have already reached or exceeded your accumulation goal.


You are saying that bitcoin is (was) centralized or am I misunderstanding you? 

I will concede that bitcoin was likely centralized for nearly its first couple of years of existence while satoshi was around, but what happened since satoshi left in late 2010?  bitcoin became pretty decentralized no?

I think that the failure of the bcash shenanigans and the subsequent (and related) segwit2x actually showed bitcoin to be decentralized rather than not.. are you saying otherwise?

You want to say that developers are centralized or some other aspect?   Maybe we should not go down this road, but maybe I am just trying to get some sense of your "is" or "was" centralized?  and how that might be any kind of an issue that is even close to the level of a nation state's coin.

If we are talking about "was" centralized, when was the "was" that matters to the question and is there a "centralization" issue right now in bitcoin that is comparable to some nation state creating and managing a coin that has no intention to ever become decentralized, even if they use those words to describe their likely to fail project?

Have you even read this thread, yet?

Ok.... maybe I am coming out a bit too strongly.. and I should give you a bit more of a chance for the time being, fulcare.

More or less Saylor made representations that he did not really even seriously think about bitcoin until around March 2020.. and then he began to study into it.

There is almost no evidence to NOT take him at his word, unless you are just wanting to exaggerate things, make things up or get involved with baseless conspiracy theories..

yeah.. everyone has a hidden agenda that is contrary to the story that he had already told us.

When Saylor started talking about bitcoin, someone pointed out a 2013 tweet that Saylor had made in which Saylor denigrated bitcoin, and so when Saylor was confronted with that tweet, he said that he could not even recall making that tweet... And, there is nothing inconsistent with him saying that he just started to look into bitcoin and even forgetting that he had said something negative about it in 2013.



He said what he did in terms of buying bitcoin, and there is nothing inconsistent with that, either.

Saylor said something like while his company was studying into the bitcoin matter in July/August 2020, Saylor himself had front run his company by about a month and bought a bit more than 17k bitcoin for more than $160million and that would have been for around $9,500 per coin or something like that (and maybe in July-ish).  Right around the time that his company got into bitcoin with the first purchase in August 2020 Saylor started to be public about bitcoin. .and I think that he had a kind of instant fame.. including that he was already quite articulate about why he got into bitcoin right out of the gate.. and he has been more than transparent about a lot of the ongoing purchases of bitcoin by the company, and some folks asserted that he did not need to disclose his prior personal purchase of more than $17k BTC, yet I believe that he was trying to be overly cautious in some of the disclosures that he was making.. and sure it is possible that he bought more BTC than the 17k plus that he said that he bought.. but so fucking what?

I don't recall Saylor making any further disclosures about personal BTC purchases, but it seems that he has probably been buying bitcoin with his personal funds on an ongoing basis since about July 2020.. and deciding NOT to disclose such ongoing personal BTC purchases, but again, so what?   Again, I don't know.. I am just speculating that he probably continued to personally buy BTC in the past year or so (once he started)



I doubt it is much different than what he already disclosed.

You are wanting to find fire, even though you are having trouble even finding smoke.. but whatever.. perhaps you need to study up on the matter a bit more, instead of just randomly speculating.. based on what you suspect and it does not even line up with the basic facts that are known or account for what is already known.



All coins that are not bitcoin are shitcoins, including ethereum.  No need to go into that here.

So far Saylor has not gone down the shitcoin rabbit hole.. and he even stated that he is not interested in various shitcoins, including ethereum.. but sure, at any point, he could change his mind, but so far he seems to have stuck to his conviction that ONLY bitcoin is worth investing too.. in terms of any other projects that might also be in the space that have their own coin.. and part of his rationale is that if you have identified a leader in any sector (which is bitcoin in this case), then there is no need to invest in competitors that are not even close to the leader.  You can watch a short (30 minute) interview that Saylor did in January 2021 and several times goes over the concept of investing in the leader of a sector and NOT investing in various inferior competitors.

At around minute 17 of the interview Saylor talks about the disadvantages of diversifying into losers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ60ehVJYAs

Yes.. we can just disagree.. I am not going to waste my time trying to convince anyone that doge coin is not even in the same category as bitcoin, even if there is fun with the gamifying pumpenings of such nonsense of false equivalencies.. so sure go on and believe.. in such nonsense.

As I type, I am thinking a bit of WOW  that maybe I should reiterate that there is also something a wee bit problematic with jaysabi's original presentation of the matter, and if there are various folks who believe that assuming away the sound money component of bitcoin is really getting you anywhere then you likely do not even understand what brings value to bitcoin and holds up this whole "crypto" space.. and that is the sound money component of bitcoin.. so presuming away such sound money component of bitcoin and then saying, let's compare blah blah blah shitcoin to bitcoin after we presumed away the sound money component, is almost pure nonsense..

Think about it.  There would NOT be any shitcoin in the space were it not for bitcoin presenting an atmosphere in which the various shitcoins are even able to operate, whether we are talking about doge coin, ethereum, various scams built on ethereum such as ICOs, Defi, NFTs, the bcashes or whatever other shitcoin money printing variant that you would like to present as if it would be able to survive at all were it not for bitcoin.....

So sure go on and believe in such nonsense that involves making false comparisons after you assume bitcoin to be in the same league as the various shitcoins.. Pretty damned eye-rolling that members in this forum don't even seem to understand what bitcoin is bringing to the table.

Good point.  Gotta take those dweebs with a decently sized grain of salt..

including the various ESG discussions (not completely exactly related but happening at the same time) have been getting on my nerves more and more and more in recent times.. Fuck the Chinese (not that I dislike China generally speaking except this recent move in regards to bitcoin mining...) and fuck ESG.. not sure which one of the fucks should be proclaimed first or strongest?  hahahaha


Oh gawd richie...

You gotta zoom out.

Who cares if we might get stuck in some kind of $32k to $35k or whatever largely noise that you are proclaiming to be flat for a day or two or even a week or two.. does not really matter too much.

Zoom dee fuck out!!!!!!!! #nohomo.

 


That's what she said.

In my case, I am referring to my sister.  I think that she realizes that even with BTC prices dipping quite a bit, it is still 3x up from September, which is NOT anything to be claiming poverty... Anyhow when she was judgemental laughing at the holes in my shirt, I said that I have come to a moving party, so I thought that wearing less fashionable clothes might have been acceptable.. but she did not come to such a conclusion about appearance, and even felt some needs to elaborate on what "we" do.. even though she is a nocoiner who seems to have plenty of money.

You would have to have real lights in the hat in order to get that kind of a glow for the laser eyes.


Fair enough.

Today's sling shot (even though backwards on the direction) remains more or less the same as yesterday's  "coiling."


For OPsec reasons usually it is not good to show your exact order prices (even amounts)...

I do like your spread of $35k, though..  makes me look like I have a spread for ants when I am only at about $6k or $7k for a spread..

In terms of the solidness of your plan (or even your spread for that matter), I would imagine if you are mining a variety of unmentionable shitcoins, but part of the point is that you are generating value that you want to convert into bitcoin, then you are likely going to be buying BTC (or at least setting up BTC buy orders) way more frequently than you have to sell any of those BTC ... so in that regard, there could be BTC price performance scenarios that cause you to end up being way too stacked up in terms of BTC relative to your various expenses (or maybe some new shed that you would like to build or expand) blah blah blah.. and then you end up bringing your BTC sell prices (and thus reducing your spread) for those kinds of reasons as well.

In other words, what I am trying to say is that your buy/sell orders, increments and spread is a snapshot in time, and surely sometimes circumstances remain quite manageable in order that you might not touch many of those buy/sell orders for months and months and months.  I recall some sell orders that I had set in something like early 2018 that stood pretty much until late 2020.. and even some more extreme cases of some sell orders that I had set in late 2017 that did not need to be touched until early 2021.... but kind of some exception circumstances with some of those.

For sure, each of us are likely to have a variety of factors that we are trying to balance that might cause us to engage in various tweakenings, and I still am working on a kind of cash (aka fiat) setting aside scenario that is requiring a decent amount of cash, and I still am not willing to share details of what I did, yet because I still think that I have ONLY drawn out a bit less than half of my intended draw out.. even though having already drawn out a decent quantity, I am surely way more comfortable than I would have been if I had not already achieved a certain amount of success that has allowed me to pretty much maintain the same practices of my system.. and hardly even notice too many ways that I have had to deviate from my already existing preferred system. 

Perhaps when I do my debriefing assessment of what happened, I might end up finding some holes in what I did or what I could have done better that will cause me to learn how to do such a thing better in the event that I end up in a similar situation in the future.  My ways of attempting.. as best as I can to practice what I preach.. while at the same time, maybe considering if there might be ways that I have to change what I preach a wee bit to conform with what I actually ended up doing in a real world attempt at application.

You are coming off as delusional, jaysabi.   

You may well want to check ur lil selfie into some kind of a clinic. 

Might be some kind of koolaide that you drunk?

I did a quickie glance at the comments from the tweet too, and sure if the dark blue is 1 standard deviation and then maybe the lighter blue is 2 standard deviations, I am thinking that the commenter is probably suggesting that there can be "up to" a certain amount of going outside the 1 standard deviation bond (which he stated as 33%) in order for the model to still be valid.  It seems a bit off to be proclaiming that there has to be deviation of 33%.. that is almost ridiculous if you think about the matter.

Surely when I do a quickie eyeballing of the chart, probably we are lucky to have even up to 10% of the price points to be outside of 1 standard deviation, and actually that seems like so far the model remains solid as fuck.. In other words, the less deviation the better, but some deviation is expected "up to a point" that is far from even close to being reached.

Even if we were approaching 33% of the data outside of 1 standard deviation, that might start to cause some justifications that there may be ways to tweak the model a wee bit to make it more in line with the data rather than proclaiming that the model is actually broken.. I am not even sure what kind of tweak might be reasonable without accusations of trying to conform the data to the theory.. but whatever, punchline still seems to remain that the amount of deviation that we have experienced to date is actually surprisingly low and perhaps even a deviation level for ants.   hahahahaha

Actually, you might be being too nice in your assessment of anyone attempting to make definitive analysis regarding what a system like lightning network would be or would have been based on when it was first launched.. maybe giving it a year to come into place might not have been totally accurate in terms of where it might be going, but surely those first 6 months or longer were likely a hodgepodge of scrambling... I remember even the fact that lightning network was launched in January 2017 in quite a premature kind of way as a kind of reaction to the bullshit ongoing spamming attack on the bitcoin network that had been going on for around a couple of months at that time.. and creating stupid-ass narratives for the various shitcoiner pumpers(bcash, ethereum et al) and bitcoin is broken (grampacoin) naysayers. 





Personally, I am not against any kind of analysis that attempts to put matters into perspective and even to perhaps show historical developments as compared with current happenings, so surely we can likely appreciate that lightning network remains a ways from mature, yet I see no real reason not to be attempting to analyze what is going on without necessarily drawing inaccurate and misleading conclusions from nonrepresentative data.. such as the first year of lightning network.

Surely with the recent onboarding in lightning network - perhaps partly fueled by some of the El Salvador news (including realizing that apps like strike actually have utility) seems to bring more attention into creativity that could cause some functionalities and interfaces in the coming years that currently ONLY a few more insightful folks might imagine to be coming... which the occurrence of actual adoption and usage likely puts the whole damned thing to a kind of test that ends up inspiring creativity and even motivations to make money too.. and if some people might not be motivated by making money, they might end up being motivated by serving a kind of "mover and shaker" role in the whole scheme of lightning network related things.. that may well even inspire some other second layer interfaces/businesses that were beyond the imaginations of folks focusing on the matter from a different angle.

China made another very similar decision in late 2016, that pretty much fucked a lot of their people out of BTC profits from the 2017 bull run - except maybe some insiders were able to still make profits during that period.

Even though it seems to be more severe this time around, they may be playing some other variation of the same playbook that mostly is just going to hurt their own people in terms of the Bitcoin mining business, but sure if they believe that it is for the good of their own people to have more limited exposure to bitcoin mining, then let it be so.  That's their choice.  King daddy is going to move on with China or without China.

Yes.  There are a lot of people who are working on their personal BTC stash, and even if you refer to yourself as a pleb, you Wind_FURY should appreciate that you are quite a ways away from the BTC related circumstances of the vast majority of people.

You likely even run into the situation in your real life.  You tell people about bitcoin, and you may even suggest that they take some action, such as setting up accounts, but people do not do anything.  I personally believe that you have your own hesitancies that remain way too great, and you continue to remain scared about bitcoin, so sure bitcoin is quite likely not ever going to see under $10k again, but there are decent chances that it is NOT going to see under $30k again, either.

Sure, we have a lot of FUD and a lot of negative news in bitcoin, but similar kinds of doom and gloom narratives were happening in early 2017, and when BTC prices had gone to $1,400 and then dipped back to $900.. yet maybe we are more like a August 2017 like scenario where BTC prices went to nearly $3k and then dropped again below $2k or maybe when BTC was approaching $5k and then dropped to $3k..

A problem remains that no two scenarios are going to play out exactly alike, and now there are BIGGER players involved, but sure a lot of them could abandon ship too... so your friends who are much less invested than you do not know, but they should still be getting set up with their accounts, and I am not even going to change myth  recommendation to get started right away.. do not be getting so worried about price.  If it take 5 years or more to continue buying with DCA and maybe on dips, but still the DCA remains a solid approach that does not attempt to time the market like the buying on dip can sometimes get frustrating because you are attempting to add that additional factor regarding how much of a dip is enough, which can end up screwing you into buying too much too early or just not buying enough because you are waiting for a dip that does not end up happening.

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What I be missing...?  

I did not admit to either or both of those.

I doubt that I am very popular, but rarely have I been accused of being some form of disingenuous... except maybe rare occasions when certain members are getting too emotionally involved in some kind of seemingly irrelevant derailed personal attack and battle coming within their own feelings, which seems to be where you are currently wanting to go with this thread of our conversation.

Historically, you have devolved into quite a few emotional outbursts in your interactions with me, yet frequently your simultaneous solicitations for the help of others to chime into your concerns does not really seem to bring results - unless you happen to write some content that is actually funny - even if it is meant to be a dig toward me... .

Don't get me wrong.. because I hardly give any shits, but just saying about your ongoing devolutions into emotionalism, that's all.

I am speculating that perhaps an employment of a wee bit more humor from you could be helpful for your own dealings with whatever dilemmas you seem to be having... .. and surely it could even save you from some of your own bafooneries.. though you do come out with some pretty ridiculous ones, fairly regularly... .. and surely no need to repeat any of those here...   posts speak for themselves.  

 
To me, it seems to NOT be very good for karma to be saying what you "don't want".. #justpointingitout


Might be interesting to know if you would be successful.. in terms of getting a bot to work on another exchange.

Of course, if you had used something like that on MTGOX and then on BTC-e that is quite historical happenings rather than recent happenings.. so you may well be out of practice or rusty, no?

I never did try to set up an account on MTGOX, but BTC-e was an easy place to set up an account in early days (talking late 2013). and yeah, I lost some coins on that exchange (I think that it was around mid 2017?) and I probably should have discontinued using them at a certain point, but did not really realize how badly it was going to devolve.., even though the signs were fairly strong..

PS  By the way @modrobert, I reflected a wee bit more on your stated concern about lack of volatility and/or oscillation, and jeez.. I am wondering what level of volatility and/or oscillation do "need" in bitcoinlandia in order to feel comfortable?  

Perhaps you are looking for BTC prices to stay in a smaller price range?.. and I wonder if you would be able to get consistent returns.. not that you would be very likely to get me to change anything that I do (including the employment of a trading bot).. because right now I consider myself as a mostly HODLer and an accumulator who uses trading for insurance purposes, and I do consider that I trade relatively BIG swings relative to my beginning history ..

I started out trading less than $5 price moves  (and surely the price spread was around $10.. I cannot remember exactly), but sure the BTC price was then only around $250.. and now my trades are $1k price moves between trades, but my spreads are $6k to $7k .. but then if we get back to $60k-ish then my intervals become something like $3,000 and the spreads shuld be BIGGER too.. but sometimes I am NOT sure how those spreads will get BIGGER or even how much dollars/or sats that I might be stacking up until we get there also..  Anyhow, with the passage of time, it does seem that I am quite a bit less active - even though I am setting my orders manually, and of course if the BTC price moves $10k or $20k in a few days, that does tend to cause me to have to be more active in the order resetting arena...  

For example on the most recent BTC price move:  I had sell orders execute in the $37ks $38ks, $39ks, $40k (the ones in the $41ks did not execute); then I had buy orders that executed in the $34ks, $33ks, $32ks, $31ks, $30ks and $29ks (the ones in the $28ks did not execute).  My next sell orders are in the $35ks and every $1k thereafter for quite a ways up.