You can read this thread and find out.

They have 92k BTC and they have authorization to buy BTC with another $500 million (whether they have bought yet or not is still not clear)

They ONLY buy and hold bitcoin, so fuck off with your asking about cryptocurrencies, they do not buy shitcoins... hahahaha.. nothing personal against you, fulcare.   



Michael Saylor (and thus MSTR) is a newbie to bitcoin, so again you might want to study this thread in regards to the situation, and surely he is an interesting case in terms how quickly he studied the matter, how BIG he went in from the start in August 2020.., how much publicity he has been getting, some of his ongoing doubling down in terms of his buying of bitcoin and how much he seems to be ready, willing and able to share his strategies including giving free seminars on the topic of how to buy BTC (and put BTC on the treasury balance sheets) for BIGGER players.



Of course, "early adopter" is a relative term, so how the hell is anyone going to know for sure except with the passage of time in regards to how matters turn out.

Of course, the theory is that we remain in relative early stages, and so MSTR seems to be of this mindset in terms of considering how advantaged that they could become to attempt to front run BTC investing and in that regard to have a lot of advantages over other players who are either too slow to act or too non committed in terms of recognizing BTC's current value proposition.


They might be correct, and they might not.  Surely, many regular bitcoiners believe that they are both right and quite smart to be attacking the matter quite aggressively in such a short period of time.  With the passage of time, we will see how well their aggressive approach works out for them.



Seems that they are probably right, so then anyone studying the situation, whether an individual or an institution has to decide if the behaviors of MSTR is going to affect their own thinking about the matter.  If MSTR is trying to buy all the bitcoins, then there might be some considerations about whether to emulate or just step back and let them buy them all or take some moderated stance to accumulate a sufficient amount of BTC in order to feel comfortable with the possibility that they could be right  - or on the other hand, be prepared in case they might not be correct...

I would imagine that quite a large number of regular forum members have been preparing for BTC prices to go up for some time, so the behavior of MSTR is not totally shocking, even if it seems to be way more aggressive than even the most bullish of bullish members here.... Many times regular peeps do not have cashflows that are great like MSTR nor are they in a position to either leverage a company or to gain publicity for such leverage, so in that sense the behavior of MSTR ends up fitting in a special category that might not be the same as what longer term forum members had been capable of doing, but there likely are a decent number of longer term forum members who feel adequately prepared psychologically and financially for MSTR's seeming ongoingly aggressive approach to BTC.


You are speaking gobble-dee-gook like some kind of butt hurt no coiner who doesn't know shit but wants to spout out some kind of out of touch theory.

I will admit that the behavior of Microstrategies fits into a kind of difficult to believe category, but if we are attempting to categorize the behavior and talk about the BTC price effects that it may have, we should be attempting to stick with reality rather than just making up shit that makes hardly any sense.

Another matter is that it seems to be difficult to know whether MSTR bitcoin buying is having much if any affect on short term BTC price.  Of course, any entity that continues to buy is going to put ongoing pressures on the buy price, but if others do not follow or if the selling (or even the use of financial instruments to short) are stronger than the buying pressures, then of course the BTC price will continue to go down, even if Saylor et al might be buying BTC in lump sums and even 10s of millions of dollars worth regularly on a monthly or so basis.

I would not proclaim to know whether $30,066 is our actual bottom for this particular correction or if there might be more room for more downity.  Looks like we are getting another test of buy support, and sure it is possible that MSTR has already bought.. but really difficult to know, especially if they have not yet announced.  At some point, I would consider that Saylor/MSTR would want to be a bit more strategic about their buys in terms of buying on dips - because at some point they must appreciate that they are HODLing a sufficient amount of BTC to prepare for UP... so in some senses they can help the whole ecosystem and themselves to be buying on dips, too... rather than just buying at whatever the BTC price happens to be at the time - which is what is recommended for a smaller HODLer who is still establishing base BTC accumulation levels - and so it should be logically apparent that even having had accumulated 92k coins or even perhaps over 100k coins by now, MSTR has accumulated a pretty decent base of coins relative to other assets that they might hold or even some cash that they may continue to have available besides the cash that they have borrowed, equity that they have reserved or other cash that might be coming in based on ongoing sales (that are likely to be continuing).

I did not get into bitcoin until late 2013, so I did not personally experience any of the pre-late-2013 price performance matters.  Personally going through the experience does sometimes lend some better senses to what was happening psychologically for a lot of people - and maybe just kind of experiencing the matter in the moment (or through the period) gives some senses that are more concrete than merely looking at a chart.

Nonetheless it can be helpful to study the charts from earlier periods and even to verify the specific price performance numbers in order to really recall the numbers, the dates and the price ranges.  I think using MTGOX for the pre-2012/2013 prices and dates is good, and then thereafter Bitstamp is a good reference.

So I had already heard some depictions of the 2011 price run and subsequent crash as  going up to $32 and then back down to $2 and then working its way back up.  You can see on this chart from February 2011 to December 2012:  https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig12-hourzczsg2011-01-28zeg2012-11-30ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv

You can also switch exchanges on bitcoincarts.com, change the dates and work some other variables to be able to attempt to zoom, and sometimes it can be somewhat important to get an idea of the price range and how long it took to go up and how long it took to go back down and then recover.  So it appears that in early May 2011, the BTC price went from around $2 to $32 in early June (slightly more than a month), and then came back down quickly to $15 in a few days and then sloped back down to get to $2 again by the end of November (5 months or so)... but it appears that by March 2013, the BTC price had recovered back to it's earlier $32 (which would have been nearly 2 years) but then within another month or perhaps two at most went to $263.

Those periods of down are not always going to play out exactly the same because of changes in the market and just the strength (or lack thereof) of the Lindy Effect in bitcoin.  So sure, if bitcoin has been around longer, then there will be more confidence in regards to its likelihood of continuing to stay around, but then the market participants change too in terms with how many exchanges (or even OTC players and/or the development of various financial instruments) are participating in the bitcoin space to contribute to bitcoin liquidity and how much trade value it takes to move the BTC price.  Of course, now we also have a variety of shitcoins that could affect liquidity in various ways and also be used as FUD spreading talking points to attempt to affect market sentiment as well as more concrete liquidity considerations.

It would be pretty rare for you to find me even attempting to make any kind of you are not acknowledgement of shitcoins directly affecting the BTC price or even acknowledgement of theories regarding single theory (or even a small set of causations) affects on BTC price, even though in the short term there may well be some single factors that are dominating more greatly and perhaps attempting to exacerbate a kind of momentum that might already exist even though we might not always be able to see or recognize a lot of the behind the scenes causations - even if some whales could be in better positions to see some of the things, they still might not know whether if they would be able to move the BTC price by strategically dumping 1000 coins or being able to buy them back at a lower cost (or at least not a losing money price) if they were to attempt such a strategic dumpening.

Even though proudhon may be a disingenuine dweeb, I would not consider Chartbuddy as a way to measure the last time that bitcoin prices were below $35k.

I can look at the bitcoinwisdom chart, and I can see that on June 18, the BTC price had gotten down to $34,718, so that seems to be pretty damned accurate that bitcoin prices had dipped below $35k - even if it may have only have been for a flash.  When I switch over to the 15 minute candles, I can see 7 candles, right around the same time as the deepest dip that the BTC price had dipped below $35k.. there are probably other better ways to measure, but chartbuddy does not seem to be good for attempting to figure out those kinds of ongoing spot changes in price.


Please restate or link bet for reference.

thank uuuuuu


I am thinking.. who fucking cares?

If some folks don't want to mine, then let them shut their machines off and go somewhere else.

There are plenty of miners and if some of them are manipulating or playing games or getting beaten up by the chinese government, who cares?

A lovely thing about bitcoin is both the difficulty adjustment every 2016 blocks and also the fact that the hash power could be dropped by 90% and still there is plenty of computing power there... Let's see how it plays out?  Do we have a mining death spiral?  I doubt it... Do we have an attack vector?  Sure some FUD spreading peeps want you to believe that.,. Lots of profits being left on the table by those who are shutting off their machines or unable to operate and those who are able to operate are likely either picking up the slack and making better profits and perhaps there are even some considering coming back on line with their older equipment and less efficient operations if the hashrate continues to drop.

I will speculate that more likely hashrate follows price rather than the other way around, but whatever, we will see.  Won't we.. The next two weeks are critical.^tm.. well one week for this difficulty adjustment and two weeks after that for the next one... so.. sure, let's adjust it to the next three weeks are critical.. ^tm

Cannot resist to consider that sgbett would end up as quite the villain in the whole June 21 betting matter if he were to end up winning, and fucktwat trolls (can't really think of any better descriptor at the moment) really love that kind of villain attention.



ditto.... And nohomo, too.

 


Not seeing "elevated volume" currently. 

I see some elevated trade volumes around May 18 - May 24 around the $30,066 dippening.

I see some elevated trade volumes around June 7 - June 9 around the $31,025 dippening.

Could be that one of us is delusional, but not this cat?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?

Sure, some people believe that the market is dying and not going to recover, but why do we give any shits about them?  Those kinds of people are always present and likely are failing/refusing to act and to prepare for UP.  They are overly focused and concerned about DOWN without either valuing the preparation for up or having a long enough investment horizon that DOWN should not overly affect them.. For example, if your BTC investment horizon is at least 4 -10 years (of course, longer is better, but still even the shorter one might work out), then If you have already been in BTC for 4 years, you would see that you have pretty decent chances of being up on your investment, so you would not consider a wee bit of down time to be impacting you in any kind of meaningful way, especially if you still might consider that you have another 6 years or more to stay invested in BTC.

So for example, someone who has been in BTC for 4 years could very reasonably have a steady BTC buying practice of something like $20 per week, but still be in the neighborhood of 4.5x or more returns in regards that the amount that they invested into BTC... Maybe more than $4k and more than half a bitcoin and not bad kind of investment progress.

For sure the guy with 7 years of investing in BTC is going to be sitting much more pretty with the same level of mediocre investing of about $20 per week, he would have ended up with something like 42x of profits, and $7,300 invested but more than 8 bitcoins.

Even though the longer that someone has been investing in bitcoin has tended to cause better kinds of overall returns, even with relatively modest amounts invested on a regular and ongoing basis....

So even if we look down the road and the person who starts to invest in BTC might not have more than 4x after 4 years or more than 40x after 7 years, but even having 4x in 7-10 years is likely going to be decent results and within a range of quite reasonable to hope for, even if nothing is guaranteed in terms of either amounts of time, and there are also going to zero scenarios that are not non-zero in their likelihood, but I still would consider bitcoin having a quite better investment thesis now as it did in 2013 - even if there has already been a considerable amount of BTC price appreciation over that time.. and even though BTC may have moved from the earlier early adopters phase to more of a just regular early adopters phase. 

Your milage may vary in terms of your actual performance or your strategies that you might consider employing after attempting to assess both where BTC is currently and where it might go in the short, medium and/or long term.. and which kind of investment approach that you prefer to employ, if any.

4-10 years minimum I continue to suggest as being good.. but surely you have to tailor to your circumstances and also consider that even if some kind of getting rich quick were possible, it is likely more prudent to be attempting to be preparing for getting rich more slowly.. and to feel lucky either to make it or lucky to have it happen in a shorter period than expected.. such as while you can still enjoy it.. depending on your age and how many years you are planning to move from BTC accumulation stage to maintenance stage to liquidation stage or whatever variation in the middle since they might not even be absolutes in the whole investment portfolio categorizations and considerations.

How much fiat you going to have left if BTC prices were to reach those $15k to $20k levels?

Many of us seemingly prepared for worst-case scenario HODLers are going to be running out of money if BTC prices were to reach that low.  Currently, I do happen to have buy orders staggered down to those levels, but I surely am not expecting them to get filled - minus some kind of long-shot happenings...

Many of us seemingly prepared for worst-case scenario HODLers have already been buying all the way down since $50k-ish.. so if the BTC price goes below $30k, below $25k even above $20k, several of us likely will be buying quite a bit at those higher prices, so from where is all the money going to come to be able to buy more below $20k, if the BTC price were to get there?  

It remains quite doubtful that the BTC price will get below $20k, but still.. hopefully not too many people are holding onto large amounts of fiat waiting for the BTC price to go below $20k and the price never happens to get there.

Hey cAPSLOCK ... thanks for your overview.

I remember recently that you had become a bit of a fan of Blockstream, so I was looking to see if you had included the blockstream green or the blockstream agua wallets... I had heard that green was more sophisticated and fully featured and agua was supposed to be more consumer (beginner) friendly.  Just wondering whether you purposefully left those out or if there was a reason - perhaps time-consuming to play around with so many wallets, too.

You make little sense Lorence in your attempt to make kuldipgajjar appear to be reasonable.

In essence, kuldipgajjar is making a bet on one direction (which of course is down), and also making quite a few negative assertions regarding where bitcoin is at currently.

The ONLY way that kuldipgajjar will come out potentially good in this kind of situation (presuming that his actions are somewhat matched with his words) is if he ends up being correct, which seems to be a bit of a long shot, currently. 

Sure, anything could happen, so kuldipgajjar, could end up betting correct on seemingly longshot circumstances, and really with his seemingly pessimistic framing of BTC, even if it were to dip down to his target zone, from his already stated words, he seems to hold little to no confidence in BTC as an investment, so why would anyone like him all of a sudden have confidence to buy in the $15k to $20k price arena.. I surely have my doubts.. but anyhow, we are hardly likely at all to even find out, so who really cares.  On the other hand, if BTC prices dip below $25k, then perhaps then we might be able to take $15k to $20k prices seriously, but even that is not seeming too likely.. but sure, I would be willing to more seriously consider $15k to $20k as being within striking distances were we to get prices below $25k in the coming months...

I am currently thinking that more likely seems that we will witness BTC prices above $50k before we are seeing BTC prices below $25k..

Have fun staying poor kuldipgajjar.

The odds are quite against you if you really believe that nonsense.  If you happen to be someone who is new to bitcoin or you just recently got in, and if you are currently feeling shaken, then you might need to reconsider your finances in order that you can get yourself to a comfortable position, financially and psychologically.  

So of course setting some targets is good, but any target should attempt to be realistic, and these days should likely involve creating decent and practical ideas around BTC accumulation until you have reached a comfortable level with that too.  

There is going to be a lot of variance between the circumstances of people in terms of if they already own some BTC and then other aspects in respect to their personal situation, including goals that might help to inform them what kind of approach forward may well be good from here in regards to BTC accumulation or perhaps maintenance.

By the way, any prudent and practical BTC plan is going to attempt to prepare for both UP and DOWN, and frequently people put way too much preparations in DOWN (or meaning that they have failed and refused to prepare for UP) and not enough preparations in UP.... and anyone who does not adequately and meaningful prepare for UP could end up regretting that...

Failure/refusal to adequately and meaningfully prepare for UP seems to be a repeating story in bitcoinlandia.. that I have seen numerous times since 2013/2014 .... especially during correction periods.. sure lots of people get excited when the BTC price is going UP, yet many times the preparations and the meaningful and adequate accumulations of BTC are taking place during down periods, correction periods or flat price periods.. like the one that we are in now and may well look temporary when we look back on it, even though it has been happening for about a month - or even longer (depending upon from when measured), so far..

What if chart buddy is "critical mass?"






Bitcoin is probably one of the main hopes that people have.  Sure, they are not breaking down the WO thread doors to get in and to talk with us about it, but so what?

 Some of us know about bitcoin and have continued our bitcoin plan, which seems to be a quite good plan when there are a lot of system meltdowns out there.. and sure some people have some security in their investments and their overall situation, but seems like some of the better security is going to be those who have included bitcoin as part of their plan.  Maybe they are just finding out about bitcoin, so would not be a bad time to get started - even though it can surely take a decent amount of time to establish a kind of comfortable stake and even a kind of comfort level with having BTC as part of your overall plan in these seemingly troubling times.

The idea of buy every dip and HODL does not include any kind of selling strategy, and personally I believe that it is NOT a good idea to be trying to sell BTC or to time the top, at least until you have reached or exceeded your BTC accumulation goals, and maybe that is what you are trying to imply when referring to what you believe "Long-term holders" should do or try to do.   

Even long term HODLers have sometimes NOT met their BTC accumulation goals, and in that regard it could be quite problematic for long term HODLers to be playing around with selling very much of their BTC stash.. of course, selling small amounts or shaving off a bit in order to feel more comfortable to be able to buy back upon a dip is not a bad thing, but it seems that any person selling small amounts has to realize that the BTC price might not come back down for them to buy back, so they need to be careful in terms of expecting it to correct and even how much they expect the BTC price to correct.

Furthermore, if a HODLer is a long term enough HODLer, for example buying his/her BTC in the $500s or something like that, then s/he might not give too many shits if s/he wants to buy something for let's say $10k, and he could have sold 0.154 BTC when the price was $64,895 or now s/he has to sell 0.2857 BTC in order to get the same $10k.  So of course, if you hold your BTC long enough, you might not get too concerned about when you sell it exactly, even if you might try to sell when the price is higher, but you are not going to get too worked up if you end up shaving off the amount at a less preferred time, such as when the BTC price is $35k.

Aren't we all small potatoes - except Mindrust made it to 10BTC for almost a whole day.. but that was on March 11, and we know what happened thereafter.   

Not easy HODLing so many BTCs.


What's the theory then?

We are not going to be able to go UP (for reals) until quantity of leveraged longs falls to such a level that it is no longer "easy peasy" profitable to liquidate them without hardly any coins?

Saylor must love this.  He is able to pick up coins for cheapity cheap - because the price fails/refuses to go up.

Whoaza!!!!!        you might be out of our league.. like Saylor style, no?


You are crazy...

for reals...


I am not kidding.  I was going to say it anyhow, so thanks for the reminder.  Crazy person!!!


You fuck.


Well, just one person who has stacked 0.021 BTC or greater is going to give them a pretty decent return, and I am sure that there are still some people out there, besides Saylor who have more than 1 BTC.  They must have raked in a few BTC already.. seems that some people would have fallen for such a ploy (at least before it had been discovered and announced, no?)  By the way, I did a quick search, and I have not seen any reports of actual victims, yet (I mean people who actually typed their private keywords into the device).

I don't see the game of margin or leverage ending any time soon. It just remains a factor that needs to be consider in terms of factoring where BTC prices might go.. and sometimes if there might be incentives (or fuel) to be able to liquidate various newbs.. The newbs are not going to go away or learn, and there is NOT likely going to be any government coming in to save bitcoin from leveraging practices.  So, seems to me to best express these matters as an objective observation of what is happening rather than whining that bitcoin prices are not going up fast enough because people are greedy, dumb and likely getting taken advantage of.


You too?

At least you are going to work in a nice ride... 


This is a good chart because it shows length of consolidation during a time that is presumed to be a bull market.  Of course, the presumption could end up being wrong (about our being in a bull market), but of course, currently there seems to be very little evidence to conclude (or presume) that we are no longer in a bull market.

Good luck to every body.

 

Lots of no name newbie accounts spreading (repeating) various forms of nonsense in recent times.   Use the FUD dice, or some other method to spread quasi-incoherence?

At least there is some kind of a budget to support such thread cluttering sockpuppet foney baloney, no?

Part of the reason that buying the dip and DCA end up merging is that dips can end up lasting so long.. like several months, so many BTC accumulators are likely to have some kind of cashflow that they can end up plugging into their BTC investment.. and the label of "buy the dip" versus "DCA" might not really matter very much - even if there is a bit more of a strategic attempt to buy the dip and the DCA is a bit more of a blind practice of just buying when "excess" cash becomes available.

Of course, really difficult to know with any kind of certainty whether the bottom is completely "in" and you, enawati, seem inclined to suggest that it is.

So, then UP from here is not unreasonable, including a 3x-ish price increase by the end of the year, which your "up to $100k" would carry out.

Up to $100k for this cycle does still seem to be quite conservative, and there are surely some convincing theories that BTC price exuberance is not limited to a 4-year fractal kind of framework which would target $100k by the end of the year, but instead potentially to have a price cycle top that is both quite a bit higher than $100k and also to drag on out to several quarters into 2022.

So surely both our going down 53% and then hanging out here in something like a 45% to 53% correction range for already nearly a month - and who knows how much longer staying in this correction range (that you labelled as accumulation phase) is going to last, but still seems that the longer that the BTC price stays in this correction range.. then it also could end up playing out with a relatively slow recovery back to our current ATH zone.. and thus providing a kind of ongoing fuel that buy support is able to keep up with the BTC price going up and up.. and therefore end up supporting a much higher (than $100k) blow off top.

Of course, nothing is guaranteed in BTClandia... but surely, we can see that some of the past BTC price performance patterns have decent amounts of informative power in terms of giving us some ideas of what may well end up happening and what kinds of possible happenings are more likely than others.  Ongoing bullish news and bullish developments around bitcoin happening at the same time to contribute to confidences in comparing past patterns to what kind of price recovery scenarios could happen from here.. whether they play out in a few months or drag out for a year or longer.

We will see then.

I will brace myself in case disappointment ends up playing out in terms of either 1) the ease of use of the lightning network as a payment mechanism does not work as well as it has been touted or 2) in terms of Bukele having an agenda that might not be compatible with following through with bitcoin adoption (i.e. the legal tender adoption matter that is supposed to go into effect in early September).

Seems that I already explained my response.  El Salvador has passed a law making bitcoin legal tender, so if you are referring to more amorphous concepts you are not speaking clearly regarding what you are saying.


Don't put words in my mouth.  I was criticizing your assertion about the supposed crack down, and I suggested that your assertion seems like pie in the sky nonsense and not very likely.  Maybe you will be correct, but I doubt that you are describing the situation very accurately and also you are being so damned vague that it remains difficult to determine exactly what you are asserting either to be the purported problem or what you believe to be a likely response.


I am not religious.  I try to consider facts for what they are and attempt to come to reasonable conclusions or to make reasonable speculations based on facts.  Surely somethings are not known so assumptions might be needed in those circumstances.  I doubt that I am biased in any kind of meaningful or substantial way when I attempt to make assessments.


Bitcoin seems to be expanding, so I am not sure about what it is supposedly losing and getting back.

Of course with anything that gets bigger, it may well have a community of people who are more diverse than previously.

I doubt that bitcoin is getting back to anything, because the circumstances that are faced at this time are somewhat new circumstances, and we will see how it plays out.... Seems quite bullish so far in terms of continuing to expand adoption, use cases, and various network effects.

It seems that with our various back and forths, I had already conceded that there could be paths forward in which El Salvador could either repeal the law or somehow reverse itself, but that seems like such nonsense that it is hardly even likely, and even if they were to repeal the law, it is difficult to say if they might not still keep going forward with other bitcoin-friendly posturing...   In other words, it seems way more realistic to be attempting to deal with facts that we know and to speculate about ramifications of facts that we know than to make up shit about what might happen and then speculate about that made up shit rather than dealing with what we already know, first.

1) I would imagine that having options is not going to be a bad thing, so you can characterize the bitcoin option as oppressively as you like, but you likely do need to consider the matter with some comparisons, and if it is cheaper to transact through western union or whatever other option, then they can use that western union option (especially if it is the cheapest and easiest to use), but of course, western union is going to raise their prices based on the competition, right?  or move out of El Salvador, right?

2) have you heard of lightning network or strike?  So far the fees have tended to be quite low on lightning network (and strike too, from what I understand - nearly free), but surely if the the quantity of usage exists longer in El Salvador and become more widely spread in terms of people transacting in bitcoin in El Salvador, probably the fees on lightning/strike will adjust to those new circumstances.. competition will likely come in to El Salvador, too.. in terms of other ways to use lightning network or maybe other second layer or even first layer transactions.