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781  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Why not to trade with guaranteed profit? on: June 15, 2014, 11:04:54 PM
Without the courts (paid for by taxes)
You've never been involved in a civil case have you? The participants in the case pay court (or arbitration) costs, its not some service you get for free paid for with tax dollars. This ignores other costs or accessibility issues.

As far as national defense is concerned, this will likely not be paid for on a voluntarily basis.
Because people cant defend themselves? The worlds most powerful military couldnt conquer a nation of goat herders, in a area smaller than Texas, with a population only 8-9% of the US's and a fraction of the number of arms in private hands.

b-b-but muh roads!
Private companies build them, not the government.

Criminal cases are ultimately paid for by tax revenue. You also have "court costs" in civil cases but this will not necessarily pay for all of the costs associated with the case.

If you had someone stalking you and needed to take out a restraining order I doubt you would want to have to wait two weeks to get paid before you can pay the filing fee.

I am not sure what war you are referring to in the most powerful military not being able to conquer a nation of goat herders. I do know that war is much more complicated then that, especially if you are fighting far from where your country is.

Who do you think pays for the roads? For the most part motorists do not pay when they travel on an interstate or a "street" Granted there are some toll roads but they are a minority. The government contracts private companies to pay build roads, and pays them for their services. Hence the government pays for the roads.
782  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Is there a website that can do this? on: June 15, 2014, 10:57:48 PM
I'm looking for a site where you can input all your trading open positions and it will give you live +/- percentage's of your positions? Something that can take prices from all the big exchanges?  It would be super helpful, Please help !! Or if there isn't I'm sure there is someone out there that can code something that can do this Smiley

You could easily make an excel spreadsheet for this.

If you would like for me to make one for you then PM and I can make one if the price if right.
783  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Investing Bitcoins? on: June 15, 2014, 10:56:47 PM
bitcoin is deflationary so you will always have an incentive to hold them, hoping the price will increase.
784  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: Paypal doesn't allow the sale of BTC but ebay does how does that work? on: June 15, 2014, 10:53:13 PM
So I had to sign and notarize a document stating I will not be selling any bitcoins for paypal usd but ebay allows the sale of them i'm confused on how that works?

Did they say why they wanted you to sign such a statement? This sounds like someone was somehow scamming you, but I am not sure what the angle is
785  Economy / Marketplace / Re: Group buy for the silkroad auction on: June 15, 2014, 10:43:17 PM
I'm very interested about that.
If I would have +200$k I would buy one block asap but sadly I don't have that kind of money.
But group buy really sounds interesting.
Keep me updated.
Some people are dreaming too much...you have to deposit 200k to be able to bid. So they can see that you are wealthy enought to bid larger sums. I doubt anyone will be able to buy a 3k bitcoin block for just 200k, rather 1 million +...


The 200k is just the deposit. You still have to pay the full bid amount (likely close to the market price for 3,000 btc
786  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: ==== Eligius, please pay my 200+ BTC ==== on: June 15, 2014, 10:40:36 PM
Quote
In regards to the proof holding up in a criminal case it is important to understand how complex Bitcoin is. You need to be smart to understand even much of the basics as to how Bitcoin works. I would be surprised if you could explain to a jury (made of up "average" people, most of which likely would not have any technical background) how a pool works or how miners work in enough detail that would allow you to explain the evidence.
I don't think courts usually require a full explanation of the technical details, just expert witness testimony that such and such is fact.
If you were to testify, the defense attorney would ask what you think he did. Your response would be something along the lines of he withheld blocks that he founds while mining on our pool (you would explain what mining, pools are and what with holding blocks mean). The next thing he would ask is "how do you know" you would respond by saying something along the lines of "I looked at our pool records and saw x y and z" The defense attorney would ask to see the records and for you to explain what they mean. Having the records in a presettable format may be the difference between guilty and not guilty or 400 BTC or 0 BTC
Perhaps. But should criminal charges be filed, the prosecutors probably have a budget for discovery, which I presume would include doing this kind of organisation of data.

In regards to should he be paid if he is withholding blocks, if it appears that he withheld three blocks (for example) then 76 BTC (I would be aggressive with TX fees) should be withheld from his payment, at the very least. This is regardless if he was doing this intentionally or not and is especially true for such a large mining farm.
Unfortunately, even after withholding the ~200 BTC, he still owes us like ~400 BTC. Sad
If you could find out his identity with relative certainty you could pursue civil charges against him. Assuming he was not mining via tor finding his identity shouldn't be more difficult then filing a lawsuit against the alias, then sending a subpoena to the ISP, data center until you can connect the dots to his identity.
Yes, but arguably it should be some high-loss miner who would file these charges.
I think wizkid057 is prepared to provide IP addresses to assist in any such lawsuit.

I think there are two issues with this:

1 - Per the top contributors page on the eligius website, the address with the most hashpower only contributes ~6.5% (6.4736%) of the hashpower of the pool over the last three hours. CPPSRB is really not something that people would generally leave and/or start mining with over the short term. Other major pool operators use PPLnS (discus fish uses PPS) and they are the same way. This isn't a discussion about what method is best, I am trying to say that miners have no real reason to go from pool to pool based on payment method (at least among the major pools). Therefore it would be fair to say that the 3 hour average would be roughly the same as a 1 week average or the average when the selfish miner was on eligius.

You previously said that eligius lost ~400 BTC, based on $571 for 1 BTC that comes out to ~$228,400 that was stolen. Your largest mining address lost ~$14,850 from the selfish miner. If you look at your number 5 mining address they only lost ~$3,300 from the selfish miner. The point is that the amounts of individual miners are relatively small and probably would not be worth hiring an attorney over, also attorneys would probably want to be paid by the hour for a case with that much is dispute. If you were to hire an attorney to bring a case trying to recover the entire $228,400 (400 BTC) then there would be a better chance that an attorney would work on a contingent basis (agree to only get paid if they win and the payment would be taken out of the settlement/judgment).

2 - Individual miners may not have standing to sue the selfish miner. In a civil case (involving money/damages) you must prove that damages be caused, but also that he damages were against you. There is clearly a relationship between the miners and the pool (the miners provide work for the pool and in exchange for each unit of work the pool provides a maximum amount of payment, if payment is less then the maximum then when the pool can afford to pay more then the maximum the units that got paid less get paid more). The relationship between miners at the pool are not as clear. I am not an attorney, but I think a likely ruling would be if a miner tried to sue another miner at the same pool, the judge would say that their "beef" is with the pool operator, not the selfish miner. On the other hand if the pool operator were to sue a miner the damages are more clear, as the miner did not provide the work, the miner said they provided the work, and the pool operator paid for the work that was not done. There is clearly a fraud here.

My analysis may or may not be correct. I do think that a pool operator sueing a scammer miner would send a strong message to scammers in the Bitcoin world. That they can no longer scam/steal and get away with it. To my knowledge none of the thefts/scams that have taken place that have been bitcoin related have been prosecuted (I think a few people have been doxed, but no prosecutions to my knowledge).

Just my two cents......
787  Economy / Economics / Re: How profitable are exchanges? on: June 15, 2014, 10:11:14 PM
MCXNow, Crypsy, BTCT, BTC-E?

I'm conducting a survey to determine the actual profitability of the popular exchanges.

Does anyone have any idea of what the volume is for these exchanges? What these exchanges make weekly or monthly and how we could find out?





you can observe the volume on sites themselves , and on sites like bitcoinwisdom.
Judging on the fact that most of the time exchanges have multi-milion traffic, their profit is huge.
and not just huge, but large enough that they can influence the price by keeping the profits in bitcoin or selling it for fiat.
funny when u think about it.

Exchanges likely wish to keep as much money in bitcon as possible as if they pressure the price of bitcoin then trading volume would generally decrease, meaning less profits.

Exchanges likely have more expenses then you think.

The AML/KYC piece is probably one of their largest, if not their largest expenses. They need to hire people who are familiar with or train them to be familiar with identity documents from pretty much every country in the world. They need to have enough of this staff in order to look at identity documents from each of their customers.
788  Economy / Economics / Re: $50k to Invest - Convince Me! on: June 15, 2014, 10:04:30 PM
I have just allocated some serious money and thinking about investing about $50k on bitcoin. Someone convince me why I should buy $50k worth of bitcoins right now!

If you need random anonymous strangers on the internet to convince you, then you should not invest.

This.

A public forum is a horrible place to get information when you are trying to determine where to put your money.

With that being said I think that bitcoin will succeed over the long term and that the price will increase over the long term.
789  Economy / Economics / Re: Expedia Starts Accepting Bitcoin for Hotel Bookings on: June 15, 2014, 10:02:28 PM
In regards to the poll, it seems we've dropped below even the lowest estimate. Goes to show you the unrealistic expectations piled onto this kind of news.

Exactly. People holding bitcoin is gambling right now.

The price of bitcoin often can have very wild swings.

This is still a very short time period to be looking at the price of bitcoin.

The poll is really geared towards the longer term price.


No one can tell what happen tomorrow let alone long term trend of bitcoin.

This is true but you can look at the current situation to help get a good idea
790  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Are Exchanges Stealing from Miners? on: June 15, 2014, 08:44:52 PM
These are off chain transactions.

It would be normal and expected to do this. If all of the trades were done on the blockchain then the nodes would get overwhelmed. It would also lead to less privacy as you would know who is selling/buying
791  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: A case study in entry-level mining on: June 15, 2014, 08:43:22 PM
With the cloud mining contract, wont this work to profit if BTC rises in price.    So you exchange 100 dollars, you buy a btc and pay them.  They mine 0.9 btc and price has risen to 1000 so you profit ?  
Of course why not just hold plain btc but anyhow cloud could turn a profit.   Right now prices are down many months so theres no profit but its not impossible

I suppose the bottom line might be the contract really pays off when diff rises slower (then expected) or perish the thought if diff dropped.  Then you get a bumper harvest and ideally the price of btc rises later.  Im just supposing what it'd take to profit.

You know its similar with 'real' futures contracts, the vast majority will expire worthless (or less then paid) but that dont make the CBOE a con

Most cloud mining contracts are paid for in bitcoin.
792  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin bubble starting to burst? on: June 15, 2014, 08:40:54 PM
Anyone have any predictions as to when the price will bounce back up?   Are we looking at a price drop for another few days before the bounce back?

It will probably fall in anticipation to the SR auction on the 27th. Once the auction is complete and after any winners of the auction sell their coins bitcoin will start rising again.


at the moment there are other issues( 51% atacks, FUD about exchanges, China atacking again...), and they have more seized coins to sell. So I doubt 27th will be the end

Well it looks like we are getting past "51%" issues, there will always be FUD around everything (not just bitcoin but all investments that are successful), China can likely not get more aggressive then they already are.
793  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: GHASH.IO vs ELIGIUS.ST on: June 15, 2014, 08:39:17 PM
Can't I say cex.io is profitable because GHash is profitable. right ?

It would be the opposite, ghash is profitable because of cex.io (they are the ones that sell the GHs)
794  Economy / Speculation / Re: I like this a LOT :) on: June 15, 2014, 08:38:25 PM
Why would $ decline when bitcoin rises in value? Do U really think bitcoin makes it go down

Lack of demand = lower value, worth less.

People exchanging fiat for bitcoin means they put less value in usd and more in btc...so bitcoin goes up, usd goes down. Once mega money starts cashing in to bitcoin, the usd value will drop more significantly...it's basically people dumping fiat for some other currency. Every time China does it the dollar falls.

bitcoin does not have that big of a market cap to make that much of a difference in the price of the dollar.

The market cap of bitcoin is well under $10 billion. There are tens of trillions of dollars worth of dollars.

true. usd market cap is more than 18.7 trillion. btc is like 8+ billion

This is why bitcoin is more appropriate for 3rd world countries.
795  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is dead ! GHash over 51%, SR Seized coins and Mtgox coins, China Ban etc on: June 15, 2014, 08:37:36 PM
See you at $0.1

You have a time machine that travels backwards in time?

take me back to feb 11 2009 please

Sure just send me 10k BTC for your ticket (I can't really take you back in time)
796  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: I have 3 Million USD to invest into Crypto Currency - How should I do it? on: June 15, 2014, 08:36:36 PM
New idea.  Deposit $200,000 into US auction of confiscated SR coins.  Get as many as you can and hold for dear life!

*or diversify Smiley

If you pegged the auction coins at 550 a piece, the smallest block of 3K, would cost just over half of his 3M.
550 * 3,000 = 1,650,000
Heck, in that case, with the direction bitcoin price is currently heading he just might be able to purchase two of them.  Obviously that would wipe out any sort of diversification of his investment, much riskier but potentially that much more lucrative.

The terms of the auction is that you must say the maximum price that you are willing to pay and how many you are willing to buy. If he wanted two then he could say he will buy 2 @ 1.5mm each. If he wanted to be sure to get one he could say he would buy 1 @ $1.65mm (and 1 @ 1.35mm if he wanted a chance to get a 2nd one)
797  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buying strategy for June/July on: June 15, 2014, 08:33:34 PM
I would like to continue to buy, but with the FBI auction coming up I'm wondering what people's thoughts are on how to distribute this buying across the next month - continue picking up a few per week, wait until the auction to buy on a dip, buy most now?

Recommended buying strategy:

1) Work at job (or two)
2) Receive paycheck
3) Pay rent, utilities, buy food, spend nothing else
4) Buy bitcoins with any money left over
5) Goto step 1

I think bitcoin is a good investment over the long term, but is still not a sure thing.

I would not say you should put all of your savings into bitcoin
798  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Calling all Bitcoiners: SPEAK OUT against CIRCLE! on: June 15, 2014, 08:32:33 PM
What is wrong with Circle to my knowledge they are just a payment processor for smartphones
Insert converter and send
Simply put they are a service not anything more or less and help with merchant adoption

Some people do not like the fact that Circle would act like a "bank" in that users would send coins to their account and then circle would encourage users to send money to other circle users in an off blochchain fashion.

As of now Circle does not plan on having any fees and to my knowledge do not plan on lending your coins that you deposit (operating on a fractional reserve)

I see thanks for clarifying that in that case as long as they do not run a fractional reserve with the Bitcoins and have the capital and fiat to cover the ones they hold in their possession there should be no problem.

That said I guess a reserve if they somehow do get hacked might be needed, it has a lot of capital as a company so that shouldn't be a problem
The problems would occur if they declare bankruptcy with their fiat end.

For me circle makes it possible for a few people who don't get Bitcoin to use it as well and they take a niche market and help to push it further into mainstream.

Yes circle is something that would likely be very good for the less technically inclined.

One major concern that I have is the fact that it would a possible central point of failure where something could either go wrong or the site could get hacked
799  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Sending coins for neighborhoods to be more silent on: June 15, 2014, 08:30:48 PM
Sometimes you have neighborhoods that do unwanted noises. Could be musical instrument they are trying to learn, DIY constructions or pure noise. Maybe they could have address for tips for less noise.

How does it sound? Similar ideas?

How would that work please be quiet I'll tip you 5 dollars
Then the next day they will do it again to earn 5 bucks

Seems to be a bit off for me, might want to try installing sound proof buffers in your house or a quiet room
Anyways its summer its noisy since there is only 3 to 4 months before cooping up in the house again for Winter lol.

That said I like Franky's noise premium fee, but it should be refundable every month if no issues arise.

I think this would set a very bad free speech precident
800  Economy / Economics / Re: What are your thoughts on Japan? on: June 15, 2014, 08:30:06 PM
Japan had a long recession but nonetheless was able to maintain a fairly strong and robust economy
They are an example of how to handle a non inflationary market
And also a competitor for Group C in the world Cup

You are saying two contradicting statements.

A recession is defined as an economy that is contracting. A strong and robust economy is one that is growing at a healthy pace.
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