Seems a bit wishful.

Yes.  Sure it could happen... maybe less than 40% odds.. 

A dump for ants... in other words, does not really even count for a dump.. yet.

FTFY

On Monday, Saylor/MSTR announced that MSTR had acquired 12,000 bitcoin for a bit more than $800 million

and then in the last couple of days, they announced that MSTR is in the process of raising another $500 million for the purpose of buying bitcoin..

One good thing about pushups is that you can do them anywhere.. but yeah, sometimes you might feel that you are not in the right kinds of clothes or that you have to find some private space since it does not seem as usual to see people doing them in the metro system while waiting for a train (or at the bus stop), or in the office (maybe there is a spare conference room that is not being used?), or a parking lot or even in a public bathroom or in the hallway of an airport, but still there could be opportunities in some of these kinds of public places or maybe less public areas to do a quick set of pushups.

It remains a bit of a head scratcher and a bit of a dilemma regarding why he wants to push the issue so much, and like you suggested, he seems to have painted himself and/or his company into a kind of a bitcoin accumulating engine, and surely he has to do it publicly on the side of his company, since it is a public company, so those announcements have to be made, even though maybe not in the ways that Saylor is announcing them.. but he gets a lot of retweeting of his bitcoin buys anyhow.   Of course, if Saylor is making any further personal purchases (beyond the initial nearly 18k bitcoin that he claimed to have had bought in July 2020), he has not been saying anything about any further personal purchases of BTC that he might have had been making.


Who is flaming who?  You keep raising the same question for the last 3-ish years.

Yeah of course Saylor has fiduciary duties to his shareholders, and they seem to love his approach, as demonstrated in the share price and also how he seems to keep doubling down, and you might consider that he his overly leveraging the company when he could just let it ride, but his average price per BTC has merely gone from $28k-ish to $33k-ish in recent times (maybe over the last 9 months.. but then they got an additional 70k bitcoin or maybe more during that time, too.... and so yeah, maybe he will end up running MSTR into the ground if for some reason bitcoin ends up not being as great a bet as his shareholders and he seem to think it is. 

I am also pretty sure they changed their company's purpose to a bitcoin development company, even though more accurate it seems to be a bitcoin speculation company, which may not be enough of a discrepancy to make any difference since he is publicly open in regards to the contents of his various 10k reports... Which shareholders are going to claim that they did not know what he has been doing? 

On the other hand, if your theory is that they are going to turn on him when (or if) the BTC prices go down, that seems to be a pretty lame cause of action, even though you seem to think that it is important.... and it is not..  You should already realize that one of the main ways to make a cause of action for breach of fiduciary duties would be in regards to lack of transparency (if such were to exist) rather than merely based on his using leverage to buy bitcoin and telling everyone that is what he is doing.

I agree with everything you said Winterfrost, and so it can be difficult to suggest that someone is doing it wrong because he employs some slightly different method of accumulating BTC, and so within the three methods of DCA, lump sum investing and buying on dips, they each have their place, yet they are also coupled by various uncertainties.  A person who has no savings and no other investments would not be in a position to lump sum invest.. so that guy would ONLY be able to DCA and/or buy on dips.  There is also nothing wrong with attempting to strategies your buys, which might also include waiting, but waiting does not make as much sense for someone who does not already have some BTC, so then we get into situations in which the amount of BTC that a guy has already accumulated and at what prices could also affect if he is in a position to wait or if he should just be buying regularly.

I am not opposed to your idea of a guy skipping DCA because he has to roll with his life circumstances, yet if someone plans ahead and he gets his shit in order, then he would also be in a position to prioritize his DCA so that his life circumstances would not cause him to stop his DCA.. now that is assuming that DCA is a good thing for him to do based on his own stack size and his building of his stack size.  Some of the better ways to make sure that you don't miss DCA (if that is a priority for you) is to make sure that your emergency fund and your reserves are in a good position, and you also have good systems in place in terms of managing your cash float... and yeah, sure life circumstances could get so unexpectedly bad that a DCA would have to be stopped, but it would not necessarily be the first thing that is stopped, so there might need to be a exhaustion of other funds prior to discontinuing the DCA (depending on if the DCA is a priority for that particular person).. ..

Again, with all of this that I am outlining, just like you seem to suggest Winterfrost, each person is in charge of his own circumstances, priorities and figuring out how many funds that he has available and whether he is in a position to employ certain strategies that he authorizes himself to do and can discontinue or change those circumstances at any time, including that he can tell himself that no matter what, every week he is going to buy $10 of BTC and he could structure the other parts of his life around that so that no matter what he buys $10 of BTC, even if he might be having other negative financial issues that he is having to deal with.

By the way, don't get me wrong, even though I suggest DCA as the best default system to get started in BTC investing, I also consider that it is not the best for anyone who is able to put together some combination of other systems that also might include DCA as a supplement or as a kind of hybrid DCA, so in that regard, I appreciate any front load lump summing and even front load DCAing, that also includes attempts to buy on dips during the weekly DCA, especially in the earliest stages of building a BTC portfolio, but surely if someone is brand new to investing and/or BTC, they likely are not even able to do any of those other fancy strategies, so they are likely going to be in a way better position to strictly DCA an amount of money that is reasonably doable for them,  and it likely would not even be beneficial to for them to be spending time on various other strategies if they might barely be able to just get some kind of system set up to buy BTC regularly and then they have a lot of other things going on in their lives, since maybe the brand new investor might need to try to figure out ways to increase his disposable income so that he is able to invest more into BTC, and yeah if someone is in college (or some low income earning situation) they might not even have much income, so they might have difficulties increasing their disposable income until they finish their college and/or vocational training... DCA might still work for a person like that, if they don't have much income, they just would be setting a small portion aside while they are doing their studies.

Even though CSW has not yet been convicted of fraud, it seems pretty crazy to continue to represent someone in which the evidence is more and more clear that various kind of frauds have been carried out.  Yeah, they likely want to milk various aspects of the businesses if there is anything left to salvage in terms of pattens or abilities to milk the BSV system to the extent that there are still suckers paying them by buying that crap.  There are a lot of outstanding cases that are either going to be directly or indirectly affected by this ruling.. the value of the patents are likely going to go down too.. to the extent any of the patents have any value.. my understanding is that a lot of the NChain patents are stupid, and they cost money to keep them active. and money to defend them, if they actually find cases in which they might be able to try to coerce innocent folks/businesses to pay them to license if there might be some overlapping arguable infringements (rather than just the appearance of infringement).

It surely would be nice for a criminal case to be started against CSW, even before the written judgement is issued, and of course, if no criminal case has yet been filed, it cannot be counted on to be coming - even though it is likely well overdue.


CSW's behavior likely stifled developer's open involvement in BTC, and yeah maybe there are some advantages in some of them going anonymous, yet I would think that some free speech and public participation has been stifled, and there seems to be value in some of the transparency and public exchange of information that likely had been negatively affected by CSW et als threats of legal suits.

I personally like the idea of continuing to buy that would supplement HODLing rather than mere HODLing...

But, yeah each time you buy more BTC, you add a new date to the HODL of those particular coins.

So you end up with a bunch of coins with differing purchase dates and so then differing levels of profitability, and of course, depending on your accounting, you can treat them separately, you can average them out or you can account for them in both ways to figure out your options regarding the coins... and surely feeling better to be profitable rather than now being profitable, yet from my point of view there can be a lot more value in terms of having the value compound upon itself over a longer period or maybe through a quick price run up, so there could be temptations based on volatility to try to take advantage of some of the price run ups - including that guys need to be careful not to sell too many of their coins too soon based on their perception of short term profits that might not be as great as longer term profits that let the coins ride for longer periods and to experience more and more compounding of value effects... which leads into the power of exponentials that sometimes can be difficult to appreciate.

If you look at BTC prices since 2015, you can see that currently, we have had right around 8 doublings in BTC prices, yet that also show 256x increase in the actual BTC price.. so the doublings have compounding effects on the value of our BTC holdings that are quite powerful, even though exponential growth is not so apparent through our tendencies to think about value growth in more linear ways and so we frequently will fail to appreciate the exponential way of considering the matter.



That is part of the problem of daily spending and not holding a decent portion of your BTC aside.. you might get a bunch of short term profits, but you may well lose out on the longer term value compounding because you are in and out and spending it on a regular basis.  Of course, we do want there to be some spending of bitcoin in order to have various ways to have ways to liquidate BTC, even that if people want bitcoin, the some of us still want to have avenues to spend our bitcoin, even if we might be spending only small portions at any given time, and surely some guys will be doing spend and replace.


Fuck shitcoins and trading.. that is a distraction.. .to the extent that shitcoins are even on topic in this thread... and maybe trading might be more potentially topical because it is a contrast to hodl, so sure some guys here might consider that they might be able to play BTC's price waves, yet at the same time the HODL camp map shows that BTC prices tend to become profitable with time, so why risk trading if you are already good chances of being profitable with the mere passage of time?


You seem to not know what is a dump.

In the last day or two we have had right around a 11.111111% correction if we count from the local top of $73,794 and the current local bottom of $65,569, and right now as I type this post we are bouncing around $68,400-ish.

There is nothing unusual about any of that, and anyone who is investing into bitcoin whether newbie or longer term bitcoiner, should already realize that the BTC price does not go straight up, even though sometimes there might be long periods in which it goes up a lot, but there could also be long periods in which it goes down a lot, and so each of us should have systems in place (in which we continue to mostly hold our bitcoin) in order to deal with periods of UP and DOWN that cannot always be known.. especially in the short term... even though we likely can anticipate long term trends to continue to be up.. . which is part of the rationale to continue to hold BTC and to accumulate it no matter the BTC price direction, especially if you are a no coiner, a low coiner, or you perceive yourself to not have enough BTC.

We have surely been in an up cycle since our bottom of $15,479 in November 2022, yet we might not have had realized that we are in an uptrend until much later (maybe not even being sure until sometime after October 2023).. and so if the trend is going to change at some point in time from UP to down, we might not realize when the trend is going to change, so part of the question can be attempting to figure out how to treat your BTC holdings during so much volatility that is almost inevitable in bitcoinlandia, and if you don't have enough BTC what you should do about buying BTC, which likely if you don't have any BTC, then the ONLY way to prepare for up is to buy some.  

If you don't have any BTC and you think that your best strategy is to wait for further down in order to buy some, then you are not prepared for up, and you are ONLY preparing for down, which might not end up happening, then what are you going to do?  Buy higher?  Over the years, we have seen a lot of folks who think that they are preparing to get into bitcoin by waiting for prices to go down, and a lot of those people keep waiting, fail to act, so they end up not being prepared for the up that ended up happening.

If you have some BTC, but you feel that you don't have enough, you are not in as bad of a position as the no coiner because you have some preparation for UP, but if you believe that you don't have enough BTC, then you likely need to buy rather than wait.. and sure, you do not have to buy with whatever cash reserves that you have.  Managing your cash reserves and the various methods of buying BTC is another story, in which DCA, lump sum and buying on dips are the three accumulation strategies that can be exercised separately or in combination.

Which way you believe the BTC price might be going is ONLY one of the factors to consider when figuring out your own situation, and so of course, figuring out your own financial and psychological situation in regards to bitcoin is also important if you want to have bitcoin to play potentially significant role in your life - especially since we seem to still be in the relatively early stages of the greatest wealth transfer known to mankind  from no coiners and low coiners to coiners, so each of us should prefer to be on the receiving end if possible, and surely some people in the world have more disposable/discretionary income than others in order to buy some bitcoin, and bitcoin still provides benefits to the no coiners and low coiners by providing a more fair system, yet I am sure anyone appreciates if he is able to experience some direct benefits from bitcoin too.. which comes from attempting to own as much as you can without over doing it.. no one should want to end up having no coins or low coins because they over did it and they screwed up their investment into something that is nearly guaranteed (of course there are no guarantees) to return profits with the passage of time and the prudent, persistent, consistent and perhaps aggressive accumulation of coins.

It is good that you are doing something rather than nothing, but it seems that you need a certain number of reps for each of your sets and then maybe even adding more sets per day, and I am not sure how you get that, because 2 sets of 6 pushups in a day do not seem like very many.. .. and maybe there could be ways to do modified pushups in order to get more reps.. if you are not already doing modified pushups in order to increase your reps.. and maybe work up to 3 to 5 sets per day or something like that.. and maybe add 1 more push up to your sets every few days.... If you are doing full body pushups and ONLY getting 6 pushups, then that might be too much strain on you body, and so it would be good to work up to a set of 10, even if they are modified... 3 to 5 sets of 6-12 pushups per day might be really making progress... and so that would be 30 to 60 push-ups.

In contemplation of your goals and maybe how much weight you are pushing, this article has some suggestions regarding number of repetitions and sets.


The article talks about adjusting the weight to meet your goal, and of course some of our considerations in this push-up challenge may well be a little bit different since some of us are spreading our sets of push ups through the whole day. My own reason is that I get tired, but surely some younger whipper snappers would be able to do their 100 pushups in a few sets, and they might not even need to spread out their sets very much and get their 100 pushups within an hour...

Many of us seem to NOT be in that good of shape, and we are not necessarily young whipper-snappers, and so yeah there could be a question of priority too if you are combining other exercises with your pushups because if you are just building up from a state of not doing exercises and then now you are doing daily exercises, you don't want to overdo it since if this is mostly a daily routine and we should want to stay in the game, at least until $100k.. and maybe if we build up some good habits some of us might want to continue some variation of daily pushups, it would be good to have some pushups in there every day and maybe some attempt to emphasize push ups and maybe trying to get up to more than 20 per day in order to work towards getting to 100 - even though for some of us, it might not be possible to get to 100 per day any time soon. so we just do what we can, while hopefully continuing to build ourselves, without overdoing it..

I mean if we are given five choices, which you have given, then we try to guess the most likely to happen.  You have covered all of the possibilities, so maybe we could boil them down to 100% and assign odds to each one.  What is wrong with that?

Here's my ballpark off-the-cuff attempt to assign actual probabilities to each of the choices (based on current data and my own thinking about the matter).. .which currently shows May with the highest results.. but what the fuck do I know?

March 2024 - 17%-ish
April   2024 - 24%
May.   2024  - 29.5%
Later then may?  28%
never?  1.5% or less

Total = 100%

Please note that earlier I had assigned 22% odds to March, but now after I filled in the whole spectrum of possibilities, I had to down grade my own assignment of my own March numbers from 22% to 17%-ish, so I filled in the other possibilities for each of the answers to make them add up to 100% in total.. and then also to show how I resulted at May 2024 as the highest probability...

You will also see that my May results are not even greater than 50%, but if you add up all of my numbers for March, April and May, I am probably giving too high of odds because they add up to 70.5%-ish which seems a bit outrageous when I think about if that is even realistic to have that high of a probability assignment to such a thing.. but for now, I am going to stick with those numbers..

I have no problem being wrong and I am now thinking that I might be overly bullish with these actual numbers.. especially since life is full of surprises, yet I am doing my best based on what is in my thinking at this particular moment based on a scenario that you presented that already shows that it contains all of the possibilities so whatever we do, our numbers have to add up to 100%.


No need to worry.. bitmover has helped me and helped everyone else who is willing to attempt to help themselves.. including uie-pooie to make it easy with a tool that compares the location of the BTC spot price with the 200-WMA.

Yes, your lil snide remark in regards to the supposed importance of BTC's spot price will not go unnoticed, and if maybe you were to focus a wee bit MOAR better on the 200-WMA, you would be able to use that information as a kind of chill pill.

Remember that almost always dee cornz is filled with volatility (it is one of the closest things to inevitable that we have in bitcoinlandia), and furthermore what else should we expect in the midst of a war that involves that we are in the relatively earliest of stages of the greatest wealth transfer so far known to mankind.

In other words:  Get a grip... and calm down.


https://www.reddit.com/r/shittymoviedetails/comments/11gwirl/in_the_film_airplane_1980_theres_a_joke_where_a/

hahahahahahaha


Maybe this is the correction that dragonvlinux was trying to warn us..?  

I think it is all still running pretty damned tight, and look at how close between 2nd, 3rd and 4th places... and I am somewhat happy that we did not end up revisiting and filling in the $70k slot, since it was looking like a possibility for a while earlier today if we would have gotten some more correction that might have had been even lower than the $68,555 that ended up being the local bottom.

And please note that the volume of trade seemed to have had been quite a bit higher during the period of the correction rather than since the recovery - which seems to have been playing out more as a trickling back up (in terms of trade volume)... which tends to support the idea that those who are trying to push the BTC price down are not having a lot of success to get others to follow them in terms of dumping coins (since we know that when a lot of coins are dumped at once, that is not an organic play but instead a smaller number of actors).. so if they are trying to be profitable and somewhat sustainable, then they have to try to buy back the corn that they sold during their attempts to push the price down.. which may well end ups costing them more money than they would like to spend on such an attempt to get the BTC prices to go down and to stay down.

I calculate it as a 7.1% drop from the top to the bottom (that is $68,555/$73,794.. that maybe took 13-14 hours to play out....

.. yet a so far recovery our recovery 4 hours later is right around 4.15% which would be $71,400-ish/$68,555.  Yeah the numbers do not mean the same thing when measured on the way down versus on the way back up. and yeah maybe this recovery is going to be a fake out and we are going to have more droppening.. but still.. wake me up when we get some correction that is either deeper and/or more sustained.. maybe more than 12% would be interesting (or worthy of news) and maybe lasting for a day or so rather than a few hours... that might be helpful to any potential DOWNity thesis.


Of course, both of you are going to keep posting, so it is a moving target, so I am thinking May-ish.. but yeah, you never know... we could get a blow off top (meaning a period of temporary overexcuberance) that crosses above such threshold in April.. I have a hard time with it happening this month.. maybe giving it less than 22% odds for this month... but still nothing to sneeze at - up to 22% odds for this month.

People here are not going to know what you mean, unless you explain how you happen to be so supposedly smart in regards to the soundness (or lack thereof) of El Salvador's finances.

If you are making extraordinary claims then you need evidence (perhaps extra ordinary evidence), and more than just mere assertions of supposed logic that is based on your feelings about how the world supposedly works.

You sound really lost.

Are you sure that you are in the correct thread?

Yeah, your last sentence shows that you are not afraid to use the word bitcoin, yet other than your actual use of the word (twice), you are not showing yourself to have much of a clue in regards to what is bitcoin, beyond what a mainstream pundit or a bot would garner from reviewing various mainstream sources.  So yeah, maybe if you were to spend 50 hours or more studying bitcoin you might start to get a bit of a clue.. perhaps? perhaps?  Sometimes it takes a bit longer, especially if you are starting out with a lot of bad information and trying to present yourself as if you actually know something about bitcoin.


Those sound like dumb and/or short-sighted approaches to personal financial management, especially when bitcoin accumulation is in the mix.

Generally speaking, BTC accumulation is the first stage, so you should be accumulating until you have enough.  I suppose HODL is contained within that concept - but the more important thing is continuing to build by ongoing buying...

Once you have enough, then you have more options, and sure there might be a period in which you are neither buying nor selling, but you just have enough, and maybe that is a kind of HODL.. HODL until the time comes to start to sell some, whether it is selling as the price goes up or selling on a regular basis, and perhaps even buying on dips.. but without necessarily significantly depleting the value of your BTC holdings, even though at some point you will go from a point in which your BTC holdings are going up and the maybe some later point where they are flat and then even later when your BTC holdings might largely be going down because you are spending from them.

Surely the pattern does not have to play out the same for everyone, and so there could be folks who have ever increasing flows of fiat that they could spend from sources other than their bitcoin - yet at some point there does seem to be some logic in spending some of your BTC, especially if you may well recognize that you have overly accumulated it.


The ongoing persistent spot price volatility seems to cause a lot of confusion in regards to a wide-spread failure to recognize/appreciate bitcoin's value proposition.. and so many of us who have been studying the space for a while portray signs of dumbfoundness in regards to how so many normies don't seem to get it (literally and figuratively).


No more riding motorcycles into trees?  #askingforcontext

I hate to get caught up in any kind of argument that is devolving into semantics rather than meaningful attempts to assess differences in the kinds of risks that any of us might take in the way that we allocate value, whether we are choosing long term investing versus shorter term plays that might be trading and/or gambling (depending on how they might be played).

Just because everything can be assessed in terms of risk, that does not mean that everything is gambling, but yeah there are gradients, so that one persons assessment of probabilities of upside and/or downside may well end up being different, and one of the things that can come with investing and/or trading is a kind of lopsided investment that might ONLY measure the upside possibilities, and then that may well end up skewing behaviors into more risk taking than might otherwise be realized if a more thorough assessment had been made.

Don't get me wrong, I am not even against gambling, trading and/or taking some risks - even in terms of the employment of some investment strategies, yet some of the risk taking would likely be moderated by position size, if there had been some assessment that certain kinds of allocations might be on the risky side.

Maybe just to reiterate part of the reason this area of inquiry came up is within a context of comparing bitcoin and shitcoins, and so maybe some of us (including yours truly) becomes further triggered when there seems to be attempts to equate bitcoin and shitcoins, even though there are aspects of commonality between them, yet at the same time in this thread, over the years, we have had to express a lot less tolerance to bitcoin denigration that relates to shitcoin pumpening because such tolerances leads to just a ongoing slippery slope of never ending attempts to suggest which shitcoin might happen to be less shitty and potentially worthy of investment... which even if there might potentially be some good arguments, we are still devolving into off-topicness and opening too many cans of worms when even attempting to entertain those lines of reasons... so in that regards we are frequently better off with quips to "just say no" to shitcoins rather than potentially engaging in any arguments of subtle distinctions between shitcoins and bitcoin in the event that such at thing theoretically were to exist.




For sure one of the things that we know about the dollar is that (so far) it has tended to lose value at a fairly steady rate, so it is not as volatile, yet at the same time we know the trend is down based on the way the whole system is designed around it.

So yeah, you are right, investing in the dollar is not a gamble, since the rate of loss is pretty steadily known.. even though there might be some short periods of greater or lesser loss.

Of course, we should realize by now that bitcoin is the opposite of the dollar, even though it remains quite volatile based on both how new it is and also some of the battles around its adoption... but yeah, not everyone knows about the price direction of bitcoin that many of us have figured out and some of the ETF oriented folks are starting to catch on, even though some of them might not realize the value of holding your own keys, yet.. .. but at the same time, a large part of the whole underlying value of bitcoin is the ability to hold your own keys - and so more and more folks will learn about that with the passage of time, even though the ETF still do not have a clear and direct path to transition from their custodial holding of the BTC versus being able to "in kind" transfer over the BTC to any person who might want to convert from third-party custody and into self-custody.

That can be part of the problem and the dilemma of actually having money because there are so many folks that are not very responsible with their own money, and they have no reserves, and when we build up a bitcoin investment - not only do we end up having money in bitcoin, but then we need to maintain an emergency fund and reserves so that we will not have to dip into our BTC investment.. so it could be a bad thing to deplete your emergency fund based on something that might not exactly even be your own emergency, and then end up experiencing your own emergency prior to your being able to replenish your emergency fund... .. so yeah a lot of times it can feel as if th e emergency fund, reserves and float are just sitting around and not really doing anything.. but then all of a sudden when you need them, then they can surely end up coming in handy.

Maybe you are trying to do too much?

In the last few days, my number of pushups per day have been coming down and also the number that I do per set is coming down, and I still feel very sore, so I am just trying to adjust to a period in which my total number of push ups is going to be lower until I might start to feel more energy to do more pushups... I still have a daily average of 135 push-ups per day, so I do not feel that I am short-changing myself, even if my average also ends up coming down.

So other guys who might be doing 40 or 50 pushups per day, it would be difficult to consider that number to be too small, even though sometimes guys might have to split their pushups into more sets per day.. and I am not sure if it would be a good idea to have more than 5 sets in a day.. even though guys could differ in that kind of a judgment, so we can consider 3-5 sets per day as a reasonable goal... with my own continuing to be 5 sets per day, but I could see that if I might feel busy on some days I might want to do fewer sets and so even 3 sets in a day seems acceptable.. especially for any of us who are continuing to do the pushups daily even if our quantity might not be at exactly 100, we are doing an amount that feels reasonable and/or meaningful to our own situation.


If there is a goal to try to stay on track and to try to stick with the challenge, then I don't see any reason to completely skip push-up days, unless maybe you are injured.. but maybe just do 1 or 2 sets of push ups in the lower days.. just to push yourself in terms of continuing to make progress and building and to stay on schedule and in the spirit of the push-up challenge.  

For example, there have been several mornings that I had tried to do my first set of pushups somewhere between 8am and 10am.... and so I was considering doing my first set today at 9am.. but I felt sore and I did not really feel like doing them, so I waited until 11am and then I did my second set at 12 am.. .. so I am feeling a bit better now, but I am still keeping a little bit lower quantity of push ups.. and I will see how this goes over the next few days and to see maybe if I might start to feel that I can start to increase again, or maybe I will just stay at a lower quantity of pushups per day.

By the way, reading some posts in this thread. also inspires me to make sure to keep doing pushups every day.. it is almost like having a work out partner that makes you go to the gym instead of skipping that day in the event that you did not have a work out partner.

Those are some good points Winterfrost, including that the very earliest stages would be setting up a short term plan that is largely just focused on establishing a kind of initial stake, and perhaps getting other aspects of your financial life in order - since any kind of investing is likely going to cause us to have to be more disciplined with our personal finances, while at the same time if the asset class is very volatile (and even controversial) such as bitcoin, there is even more needs for making sure that your financial house is in order while in those initial stages of building.

So then at some point further down the road, there may well come various temptations regarding whether there might be some advantages to trying to sell some of your stash and to rebuy, and these kinds of temptations can come, even when guys should be clearly in their fairly early stages of building their BTC stash - yet since each guy enters bitcoin at a different point in his investment (or life) journey, he is likely going to be faced with the dilemmas at points that cannot be classified very clearly, yet I would still contend that if the guy does end up concluding that it would be good to shave off some BTC with hopes of buying back lower, that he is only leveraging with relatively small portions of his overall stash and that he stays focused on accumulation through ways of buying, even though there could be some situations in which selling some might be a good hedge (while balancing and realizing at the same time that he might not be able to buy back the sold BTC at a lower price).


There likely will be times in an investment that it might not be clear whether progress is being made - especially a guy might be continually buying, and maybe even over 6 months to a year or even more, it seems that the value of his investment is going down rather than up (as measured in dollars), so he could become disoriented and disenchanted by those kinds of dynamics - but at the same time, he might see that his BTC stash size is continuing to go up and maybe even his cost per BTC is continuing to go down, which should cause him satisfaction even during the seemingly tough times that might not even be clear if they will resolve - since we also know that there is no guarantee that bitcoin will recover from every crash, so we have to be prepared for those kinds of possibilities, even if we still assess bitcoin as amongst the best of investments (if not the best of investments).

Maybe if anyone likes the above formula, then i could give a specific example to attempt to flesh it out.  Let's say that a person has been investing into bitcoin for several years, so he has already built a BTC stash, and he would like to get to passive income of $3,000 per month, and so that would mean that the ONLY thing that he has to do for the income is just to keep track of the accounting.  No more need to do any work for that money, so any extra work would be optional because he has considered $3k per month to be enough.

That is $36k per year (12 x $3k) and if we multiply by 25 that would be $900k, and if we multiply that by 75% that would be $675k.  If we look at the 200-WMA right now, then coincidentally 21k BTC would meet those requirements.  You can see that here.  Depending on the BTC price, you could choose to just start to withdraw $5k worth of BTC per month, and the amount of BTC would vary between 4% currently and maybe even 10%, and I personally consider those numbers to be sustainable as long as we would be using the 200-WMA as our way of valuating our BTC, and if our withdrawal rates are low, the dollar value of our holdings (in terms of the 200WMA) will continue to go up, even though the amount of BTC would continue to go down from continuing to draw upon it.

Now the other thing is that if you do not currently have 21 BTC and you consider that you might never be able to get to 21 BTC, then you would merely have to project out into the future (and you can use my entry-level fuck you status chart for that - to see how the 200-WMA/Bottom is projected to move up), and so in one or two years, you would likely ONLY need around 10 BTC to achieve the same results.. and so far in bitcoin the amount of BTC that you need has continued to go down, so it is merely a matter of figuring out your target amount and your target timeline, to keep building towards being able to potentially get to a point where the paths of both quantity and time cross over.

There are no guarantees, but continuing to work in a certain direction allows for the possibilities of increasing your chances in which your timeline and your quantity of BTC will cross over to a high enough amount for your personal situation.


Investing and trading are not even close to being equal, and so trading and getting involved in shitcoins deserves to be bashed, especially since an overwhelming number of normies are going to be way the fuck better off to not get involved in trading, but focusing on building their BTC stash through various forms of buying, whether DCA, lump sum and/or buying on dips.

Anyone who wants to figure out some formulas to trade BTC and/or get involved in trading shitcoins, is going to need to spend a lot of time and potentially money in terms of diluting their ability to invest into bitcoin if they are trying to make money by buying and selling whether it is bitcoin or some shitcoins.

Another problem with trading bitcoin is that historically it has trended up, so there is already a formula in place in which you advantage by merely buying it, so why screw up a good thing by wanting more when there is already a good formula that already exists?   Most likely an overwhelming majority of folks are not going to be able to trade more profitably than just buying and holding bitcoin. and sure there could be some exceptions and people can do whatever they like - especially if they might have some special skills that most people do not have.

Look at your own situation @Iranus.  Have you been able to beat a fairly strict DCA strategy?  You have been involved in this forum since the beginning of 2016, and so if you had invested $100 per week into bitcoin since the beginning of 2016, you would have had invested nearly $42k, and you would have $15.1106 BTC (currently valued at nearly $1.1 million - which would be right around 26x profits).  Are you doing better than that?  And even if you are? Why do you need to do better than that?  

Historically many normal and not sophisticated people could have been just doing their normal job and/or or life activities and invest into bitcoin on a regular basis and gotten a 26x return over the past 8 years.... why fuck around with trading and more likely having worse results.  Go on @Iranus tell us if you have beaten those results with your own supposed equally good approach to bitcoin and/or shitcoins.

For sure, past results do not guarantee future results, yet bitcoin remains with a very strong investment thesis, and likely even a stronger investment thesis now versus what it was in 2016... so I see almost no reason or justification for an overwhelming majority of normal people to even come close to getting tempted by the lures of trading and/or getting involved in pump and dump bullshit that is also known as shitcoins.  


There is no need to diversify and trade.. especially for new investors. It can take a long time to build up an investment portfolio, so there is no need to complicate matters with distractions and dilution of value in terms of believing that there are any needs to diversify. 

In bitcoin, you can start out by only balancing out your cash levels and your BTC, and then maybe once your BTC and/or cash levels build to a certain large size of one or more years of your income, then at that point there may be some need to consider whether and the extent to diversify into things like equities, properties, commodities, bonds and/or cash equivalents (surely not referring to getting involved in shitcoins as a means to diversify).   

People will reach a threshold in which it makes sense to diversify at differing points of their own balancing if they might have too much value that they are holding in only BTC and cash and it might start to make sense to diversify, but we still need to be careful to not overly dilute our bitcoin investment, and for example someone might consider that they are going to take out some of their BTC investment in order to buy property (which is likely an inferior investment for a lot of reasons), and so sometimes it might not be worth it to diversify in certain assets if it is going to overly take too much capital away from such a great investment like bitcoin, yet people will sometimes get excited and/or mixed up in terms of what is an investment versus something that might be ONLY partially an investment but with a lot of other baggage such as depreciation, expenses and some burdens of the physicality that need to be balanced into the considerations.

You are making good progress.... so thanks for continuing to work on building it..