I'm slowly getting worried that even though BTC will perform very well this year it will not be because bitcoin is so awesome and its opponents suddenly start to see the light but instead because some large scale shit will happen that brings down the conventional markets. When bad things start to happen they will happen all at once. Yes your bitcoins will be worth millions of dollars but at what cost? at what cost?
The world's major powers (USA, EU, Japan) have never been more united in keeping this carnival going. I'm not worried about a 2015 collapse. Some things already had a sharp decline: oil, gold stocks (70-80% decline in the last 3-4 years), bitcoin. Bonds (TLT) already corrected 14% from the peak. Germany's bunds are in sharp decline (although only for about a mo) All that remains are stocks and RE. For how long? |
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What exactly was Eliguis luck in the last 7-8 days?
The number I see as payment supposedly accumulated vs payment that is "theoretical" shows that Eligius had 60% luck.
Is that so-I would appreciate some numbers.
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The major weakness of bitcoin is that most of the coins were already distributed/mined in the first 5-6 years.
The system gives little incentive to continue mining as rewards are scarce PLUS initial distribution might be to people that current elite does not trust (mostly not one of "them").
This gives impetus to talk about "blockchain" vs "bitcoin" as they can invest in the former via new companies and software development, but not really in the latter (without it going sky high at the first serious accumulation attempt).
The fact that mining is 2/3 finished gives very low $$ value to mining: just $330 mil in revenue can be had this year-these are miniscule numbers for large companies.
Honestly, I don't see how it could be solved and current bitcoin becoming a major currency.
The best bet would be that bitcoin 2.0 will sprung with some link to bitcoin 1.0 and we will be able to do an exchange into the "new bitcoin"
Those who think that mining will prevent it, I present two facts to consider:
1. As most mining manufacturers are mining by themselves instead of selling miners to individuals, most mining will be concentrated in 3-4 major players (at best). it is easy for a few large players to switch to a new compatible coin.
2. Paycoin experience shows that miners are a fickle bunch. As long as you allow them to easily switch to a more lucrative coin (where they can get more $$ RIGHT NOW), they would do so, as long as their miner is compatible.
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So maybe I ought to really look into buying the sp20's instead of the s5's? Sounds like they are quieter w/o need for any modifications. I'm sure the initial cost is a little higher, but I thought an sp20 needed 1150 watts to run per the manufactures' website? Now I'm confused...is there a low speed on the sp20 or do you guys have them tweeked to run at lower watts?
you tweak them through interface by adjusting several parameters, such as power, starting voltage and maximum voltage for each loop (they have four) independently. Check phil's thread (unofficial SP20) for guidance. there are hundreds of setups documented there. each machine is slightly different, so optimal values might differ in your case vs what is posted. the consensus is pretty much that one can use either fan 10 or auto fan to achieve very efficient mining with proper voltage settings. I say that for a large scale operation S5 might be better, but for a small home based, i personally would go with sp20 (at a reasonable price) just due to so many ways you could change things and see what happens. S5 is also good, apart from that notorious bug (only in some machines) when they overheat when disconnected from the internet. Loud noise can be dealt with by fan modding, but default S5 in the same room (office or bedroom) is basically intolerable. In all fairness, at default settings (1150w/ 1650GH), Sp20 is loud as well. |
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Noise will be an issue as well as heat. For sure I will change the stock fans with deltas and probably only run one S5 during the hottest summer months...but from my understanding of what you're saying the S5's are much louder than the sp20's? I guess my prorities are pretty much in order of: wattage per tg/s, heat and then noise.
From what I've researched, the sp20 pulls about 1.3-1.4 tg/s at 1100w, and an S5 pulls about 1 tg/s at 600w. Is that an accurate comparison?
My SP20E hashes at 1230-1235 GH at 680-683w at the wall S5 (sold all after hashing for a while with them) were ~1150 at 620-630w at the wall or ~1180-1200 overclocked at ~650w at the wall However, SP20E produces 1230-1235 GH at fan setting 10, which is quiet, while S5 default is SUPER loud and modded with two quieter fans (either deltas or Noctua/Scythe at the cost of ~$40) is still a little louder than SP20 at fan 10. Basically a draw with slight edge to SP20 due to interesting interface that is fun to play with. S5 is slightly (~5%) more energy efficient at low speeds for SP20, but Sp20 is slightly more productive. Re chip temp-we have no idea what chip temp S5 has since they don't measure temp at the chip, but rather at the board. SP20 chips are OK at up to 115C. |
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Current fin system will have difficulty adjusting to [inevitable] rise of interest rates according to Greenspan, Fisher and Lindsey https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfpEHwARhvclisten from 45:32 Lindsey: "It always ends this way...Rome, Ming dynasty, Zimbabwe (sic!)" "the end game is a very unpleasant one" Wow Conclusion: We simply need to build bitcoin up and then the old fin system will probably simply wither around it and become nothing, resulting in the new way to do things via bitcoin and related services. Thus, when bitcoin will be called on in 5,10, 20, 50 or 100 years to provide services to billions, it will be ready. “If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.” ― Sun Tzu. |
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You will look like a genius if this does happen and you are able to buy back in. I will be impressed  . Also I will be VERY happy if we get 2 negatives in a row, that would be great mining. Bitwsidom: Bitcoin Difficulty: 47,589,591,154 Estimated Next Difficulty: 46,236,511,050 (-2.84%) Adjust time: After 1851 Blocks, About 12.9 days Hashrate(?): 331,796,958 GH/s I'm still waiting for our first double digit negative, that will be a good sign. In 2011 difficulty dropped 50% just before btc bottomed. the equivalent % decrese to 2011 would be ~$72-85, which would be horrible. At these numbers, i would assume that bitcoin died or has no future. In fact all these debates about 1mb vs 4-8-20mb makes it look a bit bewildering to almost any outside observer. In addition-how can something could be supposedly decentralized, when five, two or even a SINGLE person decide(s) one of the most important parameters?  |
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Lastly are your inside the wall wires 12 gauge?
Not 100% sure, but I think that all 15A outlets are wired with 14 gauge instead of 12, which I think was what prevented me to change outlets from 15A to 20A before. I am not sure about outlets on 20A circuit, but i suspect that they are also 14 gauge, but I never run more than 12.5A on any outlet anyway. 14 gauge is the issue long (120 days) runs cause issues with them. be careful . Interesting-what exactly did you observe re long runs and 14 gauge? i assume that you had some experience. |
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Lastly are your inside the wall wires 12 gauge?
Not 100% sure, but I think that all 15A outlets are wired with 14 gauge instead of 12, which I think was what prevented me to change outlets from 15A to 20A before. I am not sure about outlets on 20A circuits, but i suspect that they are also 14 gauge, but I never run more than 12.5A on any outlet anyway. |
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A wall outlet should not be hot to the touch or change color.
of course The case of "burning inside" outlet with nothing plugged in is especially bizarre. I will open it up tomorrow and take a look |
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after >15 mo of pretty much constant mining in the house I noticed the following:
1. wall outlets with constant current draw (even at permissible 12.5A for 15A outlet) has changed color to brown and I see some plastic partially melted on the outside of the outlet plug.
2. i think that I also saw some sparks from "mining" outlets during thunder-strikes that kicked the power out
in addition, i had a supremely bizzarre occurrence when one outlet basically started melting without anything plugged in.
It could be a spontaneous short, I just don't see how this short could have developed. the plate became extremely hot and i could see something burning or at least red hot inside the outlet, so i had to cut the power.
My point is-be safe with mining equipment and electricity. i was surprised that even a supposedly safe outlet could basically put you in danger.
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Most successful complex systems are linked in a way that works to the benefit of both (or multiple parties).
example:
plants use energy of the sun, CO2 (carbon dioxide) and H2O (water) and produce O2 (oxygen) as waste plus carbohydrates (sugars). Plants are producers in general.
animals consume plants (and/or other animals) and produce CO2 and water as waste, which then can be used by plants again.
As such, one kingdom of life is linked to another in a relative balance (at least chemically)
Going back to bitcoin, everyone strives to produce bitcoin (mining, etc), but there is no "natural" sink for it.
Something has to be there to "consume" and recycle bitcoin into the ecosystem, as pure numerical accumulation in the vaults/wallets would not be sufficient.
A long term plan of 21 inc in basically that such "sink" would be automated or semiautomated systems trading bitcoin for services, but in order for these systems (and humans) to be engaged in such trading, they have to be endowed with a lot of bitcoin (and bitcoin eventually has to be much higher in value, obviously).
So, these fractions of bitcoin that gadgets might accumulate is in part for them to be able to exchange services in a network that is 1000Xlarger.
The equivalent of the unexpected (or expected?) benefit similar to animals use of oxygen (a plants waste product) would be LARGE VALUE accumulation (btc appreciation), which would benefit the existing owners of 2/3 of bitcoin mined so far, aka us. As per Metcalfe's law, we should expect at least 10^6 bitcoin appreciation if network expands 1000-fold (square of number of nodes)
Conclusion: In my opinion we should buy/mine while we still can and then allow companies like 21 inc create an ecosystem which might not result in more numerical bitcoins to us as they will be used by devices, but will result in a large value appreciation that would be beneficial in the final analysis.
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I too am going to "manage for power" my single SP20. I am at about 540W (measured), that yields about 1080-1095GH. I expect to reduce that down further to less than 500W here in the next 2-3 weeks. I think I may be able to go as low as 450W and still keep it reliable and steady. Right now it's in the lowest level of my house (i.e. the basement), and the noise is completely unobtrusive now (fan at 30). This is a new experiment for me as I didn't have this much hashrate, or power draw, last summer. I'll be waiting for that fabled 21e6 "power meter" that produces 200GH at 10W..... I run mine right where you are at but I run the fan in Auto. This has the fan speed at 6 after the initial run up of about 5 min. My ambient temp is ~75-80F in the space these are located and they run below 60C recorded from the exhaust temp. I can't remember the chip temps right now but can provide later if you would like to know. somehow my sp20 works better just at fan 10 instead of auto. on auto it keeps fluctuating in fan speed, hence difference in noise, which could be irritating. when you set at low fixed, like 10, noise is steady and your brain basically subtracts it after a while and it feels like no noise at all. |
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Until the next gen of machines comes out I would suggest just buying hash on hashnest. You can keep it for only a day and sell it back it you want. I feel it is a lot less risk than buying an s5.
I want to buy an s1 just for fun, not really to make money. If you want an s5 for money wait for the new gen, they will be cheaper then. But who knows when the next gen will come out? Could be weeks, or months.
If the BTC price rises , you will not get your money back by selling Hashnest GH/s.currently, S5 1155 GH/s costs Price: 1.63492467฿ I also purchased 1155 GH/s at a price: 1.41540542 ฿ 2015-03-09 and 1.80835 ฿ 2015-02-22 I bought a total of 251 Antminer S5 from Hashnest. 2015-02-12 - 2015-05-21 This would be 289905 GH/s . Currently I have only 52 000 GH/s in Hasnest. I've been selling out my Hashnest S5 miners many times and started again, buying they back a cheaper S5 price . However, if the BTC price rises back to 275 USD, then I am still at a loss by selling GH/s. 0.2 BTC from each miner , makes 9 BTC. i am not sure how this work. Don't you need to spend BTC to buy? what's this play advantage vs just simply buying BTC? One and done. |
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1947 - the transistor
1969 - unix
1971 - the first single chip microprocessor
1973 - Cerf/Kahn TCP paper
197x ... 199x - emergence of ARPAnet, internet and WWW
1991 - linux
2008 - Nakamoto bitcoin paper
2013 - $USD 1200 bitcoin
2015 - bitcoin micro mining introduced by 21 inc.
2020 - total collapse of large scale centralized bitcoin mining
I hope so... Most people don't realize that centralized mining=bitcoin demise or its transformation into something worse than regular banking. |
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A lot of you i see are new to investing. It does't matter what bitcoin does the next 5 to 10 years its going to grow through businesses but doesn't mean it will go up. The best wy to invest in it is through a business not through bitcoin itself. The market will be manipulated by big wigs who will kill the price buy it low sell when it reaches 1000 and constantly let it go down over an over again. Look at gold it should be well over 100k an ounce and its 1200 an ounce over all these years people invested into it. Silver what 15 bucks it should be in the 1000s as well. Rich people will constantly kill the price of it so you wont get rich off of it. But they can't kill the businesses that monopolize the bitcoin market. So if you want to get rich go after a bitcoin business not bitcoin itself. Its gone up to 240 dollars thats pretty good a lot more then what peple expected last few years if it holds this value you should be happy with that.
But I think it can go up to 500 in next 5 years and hold a stable value as the market grows. But expecting 10k a coin wont ever happen big wigs will sell off so it kills the price and then you will see how investing works. They already done it several times over the last year or 2. And also businesses are putting in loop hole fees for buying things with bitcoin now so its not free transactions anymore. But it has a big future maybe in 50 years holding bitcoin will make you rich. I keep reading these articles people think its just gonna go up cause its growing doesn't work that way when the market is easily manipulated over and over again. And its the easiest market to manipulate the people have no identity.
1. a "regular" person cannot easily invest in bitcoin business because 99.9% of them are private. 2. people don't realise that with 'just' 3bil market cap, bitcoin is pretty much useless as a "real" currency. Currencies trade ~5.3 tril/day, so bitcoin is just too small. For example, some investment company wants to sell $5 bil $$ and buy the same value of bitcoins without disturbing the price-it simply can't, even if every single owner released all their bitcoins. A single modest size transaction like this would send bitcoin literally into ATH. 3. Serious people thought that bitcoin would become currency-ish at ~$40-50K/BTC |
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do you mean that you connected it to the controller? I am not sure what do you mean by "related". Is there only one way to plug it in (if not, than try in reverse) In addition, it uses almost 4A (3.9A; ~47 W). Is S5 controller capable to provide this much? I am not sure. If it will not work, you would have to power it directly from PSU through molex adapter, but you will not have PWM feature then, just maximum speed |
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It's quite stable, around -2.0
>snip images<
thanks for an update. scraping the bottom? Previous downtrend was reversed with a V, but this time it looks different so far. |
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