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7961  Economy / Gambling / Re: CoinGames -New gambling site! on: July 10, 2013, 12:09:14 AM
Should be easy since you can see all the transactions. We intend to continue to use the same address for each bet. Just look at it in blockchain.

The number of bets right now is very small.. but as soon as you have a decent sample size (50-100) it's extremely easy to do the math. No better proof than time.

That's not true.  The best time will show is that you pay out on about half the bets you receive.  It won't prove that you don't tend to pay out on almost the bets your friends make and very few of the ones made by others.

Better proof of fairness would be to actually prove that you're being fair.  By allowing the player to pick a seed for the randomness (like almost every other reputable bitcoin gaming site out there does).
7962  Economy / Gambling / Re: Is PrimeDice really (provably)fair? on: July 10, 2013, 12:05:40 AM
This is an interesting concept, but it doesn't relate just to PD, more like to anyone.

I think PrimeDice are more vulnerable to this kind of accusation than either Just-Dice or CoinRoll, because PrimeDice changes the server seed before every roll, whereas CoinRoll only changes it once per day, and Just-Dice never changes it unless the player requests that it be changed.

Not that I think PrimeDice is cheating anyone; I don't.  It's just harder to verify that they aren't - you would have to make a note of each individual server seed, which probably nobody is going to be prepared to do.
7963  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 10, 2013, 12:01:46 AM
ALL I NEED BENJAMIN

MONEY OVER EVERYTHING

Very nice!  He got it on only his 8th "bet 1 BTC at low chance, high multiplier" attempt - then left for the day.  That's the way to do it!
7964  Economy / Gambling / Re: How does provably fair work? on: July 09, 2013, 08:45:40 PM
I have a question, how exactly does provably fair work? I've wondered for a while, and how can I verify if it is provably fair? It would be awesome if there was some sort of plugin for Chrome/Firefox that would automatically check if it was provably fair.

It works similarly on all provably fair sites, pretty much.

1. the server picks a random "server seed"

2. the server shows the user a hash of the server seed

3. the player picks their own seed, the "client seed"

4. the server uses the server seed and the client seed to generate the outcome of the game

5. the server publishes the server seed

Notice that it's important that 1. comes before 3.  The player picks last, so there's no way the site can influence the rolls.

Once all five steps are complete, the player can check that:

a) the server seed published in step 5 does in fact hash to the string that was shown in step 2, and
b) the client seed (step 3) and server seed (step 5) do in fact generate the shuffle, roll, spin, or whatever that happened in the game (step 4)

That's all.  Some sites (satoshidice, coinroll) change the server seed every 24 hours.  Some sites (primedice, bitzino) change it every roll.  Some sites (just-dice) change it on demand.  I prefer the last way - 24 hours is a long time to wait to verify a suspicious roll, but changing the seed every roll makes for a lot of work for the player, making a note of each hash, verifying each seed, etc.

For Just-Dice, there's a user-contributed script at http://jsfiddle.net/Zq8tL/3/ which lets you tell it the client seed and server seed, and outputs all the rolls those seeds generate.  So you can check it against the rolls you actually saw and make sure there's nothing fishy going on.

---
Edit on 28 Nov 2013: at the end of September 2013, from bet 145 million onwards, the algorithm used to generate rolls was changed and so the above-linked jsfiddle script no longer works.

There's a new verifier linked from the bottom of the 'Fair?' tab which is able to apply both the old and new algorithms, and defaults to the new one.
---
7965  Economy / Gambling / Re: PrimeDice.com | Free BTC! | The New Way to Roll | Low House Edge (1%) | Instant on: July 09, 2013, 08:34:22 PM
Hmm. If the bets all go through instantly, then you'll be essentially just changing the odds, you may as well just chose a multiplier which suits your martingale technique lol

This again?  I thought you already admitted that this isn't true, here:

I'd be willing to put a wager on this if you wish.

OK.  My proposition is the following:

I'm claiming that the 2-bet martingale sequence (1, 2) works more often than the 1-bet all-in bet.

And I'm willing to wager on it too.  How much?

Of course that two bet martingale will work better, since on average you will wager ~2 BTC (Cba to figure out exact amount) to achieve that, yet on the 3 BTC 1.3333x you will always wager 3 Bitcoins. Your EV would be -.02 and -.03 respectively.

And yet now you're claiming again that the single large bet is just as good as a martingale sequence.

My offer to bet about this still stands.
7966  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 08:28:36 PM
Btw, here's my last attempt at Martingale...  Roll Eyes


Probably I'd be better off not betting all my invest returns Grin

How were you picking high or low?  Was it random?  It looks like you need a "not" in there somewhere.  Wink
7967  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 09, 2013, 06:16:21 PM
Just invested a little portion of my btc in Just-Dice. Lets see how it goes Smiley

My prediction: up and down.  Smiley
7968  Economy / Auctions / Re: [SELL] Advertise on Just-Dice.com on: July 09, 2013, 06:15:36 PM
Could not edit my post for some reason. But if I can place a bid it's 0.5BTC

You can't edit posts on the auction forum I think.  Because then you could retract bids.
7969  Economy / Auctions / Re: [SELL] Advertise on Just-Dice.com on: July 09, 2013, 06:14:57 PM
Is bidding open for the week starting on the 9th?

Bidding is always open.  The last ad didn't go up until 3rd so the next one will go up on 10th.

There was only one bid last week, so I let him put the ad up for free.  Smiley

Just-Dice is great! Is BitVegas considered competition? My guess is yes as it's gambling but maybe because we are such a niche you might allow it Smiley

I think you're different enough, probably, maybe.  It's a close call, and I reserve the right to change my mind for future weeks, but this week it's OK.  I'd consider Seals to be different enough.  I don't see poker competing with dice games.  The only reason I consider BitVegas to be different is that it's so opposite to JD.  You have a pretty 3D environment and high house edge, whereas JD has a very plain site and a low house edge.  I would expect the two to attract different crowds.
7970  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 05:43:46 PM
I completely forgot. Yes, nobody makes $30k/month.

And so to make $30k/year with all your assumptions, you would need to invest 6455/12 = 538 BTC?
7971  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: July 09, 2013, 05:16:29 PM
I'm finally out of SDICE.  Sold yesterday.  Lost 70% of investment.  Sad

Hopefully now the coins are in Just-Dice I'll make up the losses.

Quote
Tue Jul  9 05:19:32 2013 <2000  245605 d061de963eb75fe8:2  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET     6.00000000 WIN    185.91940800
Tue Jul  9 06:31:16 2013 <8000  245614 88a6a62544f7a910:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Tue Jul  9 06:31:16 2013 <2000  245614 88a6a62544f7a910:2  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET     6.00000000 WIN    185.91940800
Tue Jul  9 06:31:16 2013 <8000  245614 859a800c612adab8:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Tue Jul  9 07:02:19 2013 <8000  245617 6a87c77d8bd876cd:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Tue Jul  9 07:46:44 2013 <2000  245627 50ca23782554d4c9:2  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
Tue Jul  9 08:45:08 2013 <8000  245634 bfb8201689303777:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Tue Jul  9 09:10:22 2013 <16000 245637 bd203bf26d3feaf2:0  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    39.00000000 WIN    117.10514400
Tue Jul  9 11:10:21 2013 <8000  245653 af6cdb3a967911dd:3  1LPfqFasQT1K7qeJyKp9NssFkBHuTNeTDr BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Tue Jul  9 11:59:25 2013 <8000  245658 da8cb0ffa35454f7:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Tue Jul  9 12:09:02 2013 <8000  245660 6abf38bdb9281d9f:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    18.00000000 WIN    126.00705600
Tue Jul  9 12:36:44 2013 <8000  245663 41dcbc8087c6e3a8:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    22.00000000 WIN    154.00862400
Tue Jul  9 12:41:18 2013 <8000  245664 beed1b689efbb2de:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    32.00000000 WIN    224.01254400
Tue Jul  9 13:05:36 2013 <8000  245667 77e7937ee636f3a4:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    29.00000000 WIN    203.01136800
Tue Jul  9 13:15:00 2013 <2000  245670 af4670bfcea71546:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    16.00000000 WIN    495.78508800
Tue Jul  9 13:59:46 2013 <2000  245681 ef5d504ff904d549:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    12.00000000 WIN    371.83881600
Tue Jul  9 14:37:26 2013 <8000  245687 d8581f446c05358f:1  19gQo7vdhipm5BQiPfmWeniPtxAbnY5Kmi BET    34.00000000 WIN    238.01332800
Tue Jul  9 15:08:32 2013 <1     245692 7d152ebda3e3efc3:0  1AeikmvZ38eUEdwDoT2ZnMrswnJsFfzyMo BET     0.01000000 WIN    639.99000000
Tue Jul  9 16:02:39 2013 <8000  245701 622d6f7a0d3a2146:1  1FfV591tPUjnS4K3mXSQ7589taaji45PRS BET    19.00000000 WIN    133.00744800
Tue Jul  9 16:06:22 2013 <8000  245702 e3fb0171d4b08d4f:0  1FfV591tPUjnS4K3mXSQ7589taaji45PRS BET    26.00000000 WIN    182.01019200

Quote
Total of 62 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jul-09 10:05am (up to block 245709)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    25337 |   22943 (0.97867) |     500 |    1894 |   26381.88 |   25942.15 |   241.48 |    439.73 |  98.333
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   189554 |  172577 (0.91551) |   15926 |    1051 |   93084.12 |   91794.77 |     2.82 |   1289.34 |  98.615
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   111552 |   94801 (0.85633) |   15905 |     846 |   92265.76 |   91327.50 |   401.50 |    938.26 |  98.983
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   118867 |   93757 (0.79394) |   24334 |     776 |   75116.61 |   73268.34 |  1188.43 |   1848.27 |  97.539
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   502268 |  368151 (0.73454) |  133049 |    1068 |  333792.22 |  325733.19 |  6173.64 |   8059.02 |  97.586
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   897161 |  447084 (0.49945) |  448075 |    2002 |  796674.34 |  775274.69 |  6524.67 |  21399.65 |  97.314
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1417538 |  690882 (0.48813) |  724487 |    2169 |  983097.39 |  963646.41 |  2927.04 |  19450.97 |  98.021
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   337436 |  123621 (0.36719) |  213044 |     771 |  604620.23 |  595754.53 |  1014.02 |   8865.70 |  98.534
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   357878 |   87164 (0.24415) |  269853 |     861 |  411167.56 |  396048.20 |  2323.67 |  15119.36 |  96.323
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   148014 |   26977 (0.18315) |  120321 |     716 |  186083.68 |  186811.27 |  3315.58 |   -727.59 | 100.391
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   275357 |   33666 (0.12258) |  240982 |     709 |  140361.82 |  140015.19 |   101.32 |    346.62 |  99.753
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    70265 |    6380 (0.09158) |   63285 |     600 |   18554.61 |   20085.31 |     7.83 |  -1530.69 | 108.250
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    42983 |    2645 (0.06217) |   39903 |     435 |    8253.91 |    8214.22 |    31.50 |     39.69 |  99.519
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    34425 |    1573 (0.04641) |   32319 |     533 |   10976.84 |   11725.91 |    25.52 |   -749.07 | 106.824
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   120921 |    3658 (0.03037) |  116772 |     491 |   73042.97 |   69925.04 |    57.74 |   3117.93 |  95.731
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    29129 |     664 (0.02314) |   28032 |     433 |    8182.38 |    8735.86 |    15.38 |   -553.48 | 106.764
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   185130 |    2819 (0.01529) |  181557 |     754 |   57080.23 |   52903.14 |    31.31 |   4177.08 |  92.682
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    43015 |     335 (0.00794) |   41863 |     817 |    8573.97 |    6992.52 |    10.41 |   1581.45 |  81.555
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    29142 |     119 (0.00415) |   28571 |     452 |    6154.61 |    8717.38 |    13.38 |  -2562.76 | 141.640
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    24148 |      44 (0.00186) |   23552 |     552 |    2479.41 |    1603.39 |    48.66 |    876.02 |  64.668
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    33156 |      36 (0.00111) |   32531 |     589 |    2255.76 |    1750.74 |   117.25 |    505.02 |  77.612
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    35404 |      17 (0.00049) |   34906 |     481 |    1770.18 |    1911.43 |     1.67 |   -141.25 | 107.980
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    27324 |       5 (0.00019) |   26809 |     510 |     943.56 |     606.95 |    22.27 |    336.60 |  64.326
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    27902 |       5 (0.00018) |   27330 |     567 |     659.01 |     434.15 |    14.71 |    224.86 |  65.879
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    16145 |       2 (0.00013) |   15582 |     561 |     241.34 |     320.54 |    18.58 |    -79.19 | 132.813
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    14076 |       0 (0.00000) |   13465 |     611 |     198.64 |       0.58 |    31.15 |    198.06 |   0.295
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   166759 |       4 (0.00002) |  163898 |    2857 |    2181.85 |    4485.47 |   196.62 |  -2303.61 | 205.581
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  5142063 | 2119793           | 2998462 |   23808 |  974389.93 |  956448.16 |   375.74 |  17941.76 |  98.159
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   138823 |   60136           |   78389 |     298 | 2969805.09 | 2907580.83 | 24482.57 |  62224.25 |  97.905
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  5280886 | 2179929           | 3076851 |   24106 | 3944195.02 | 3864029.00 | 24858.32 |  80166.02 |  97.967
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      80166.02792236 BTC (2.033%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4555.64477500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       75610.38314736 BTC (1.917%)
Pending Liabilities:         -121.48652151 BTC
Final SD Profit:            75731.86966887 BTC (1.920%)
Profit This Month:          -1318.57934447 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 17589503  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  9702779  (55.2%)
Blockchain MB:   7747.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   4007.1  (51.7%)



7972  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 05:05:45 PM
if you take out your profits doesn't the rate of returns slow down?

Not if everybody takes out their profits.
7973  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 04:39:00 PM
You also seem to be assuming there's only one month in a year.  Most years have more than that.  Or are you trying to earn $30k per month?

You can't live with less than $20k here.

Per month?

7974  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 04:35:21 PM
Question: How much do you have to have invested into this site to live off of the investment.

Assumption: To live from your investment, you should make ~$30,000. (Considering you don't pay any taxes)

Profit = (your investment % of site) * (wagered/month) * (.01)

The site was launched on June 20, and now it is July 9 (. There have been a total of 78,469.72206232 wagered. Total site invested: 25,748.67315358

Profit = 30000/100 (BTC/$ being $100)
% invested = (YOURINVEST)/25,748.67315358
wagered/month = 78,469.72206232/0.6557377049180328

300 = [(YOURINVEST)/25748.67315358]*[78469.72206232/0.6557377049180328]*[.01]
YOURINVEST = 6455.117443680793 BTC = 645511.7443680793

This is also a big overestimation since it takes the average wagered amount since site launch, but in reality the amount wagered is growing exponentially.

You also seem to be assuming there's only one month in a year.  Most years have more than that.  Or are you trying to earn $30k per month?
7975  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 04:31:06 PM
dabs - you don't know what you're talking about.  Even if you broke ECC you couldn't steal those coins.

Presumably because you would still need to reverse the address hash to find out the public key for that address, whereas the cold wallet has made several spends already and so its public key is - uh - public?
7976  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 04:28:19 PM
Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?

If you look at the 'betid' column, you will see that there are usually many more than one bet per second.  The site streams results live to everyone who is currently connected, and to save bandwidth I only stream one bet per second unless the bets are of significant size.  Every bet of 0.01 BTC or more is streamed no matter how fast they happen.  But "dust" bets aren't shown, other than one per second to keep the display ticking over.

There are no site bots.  There are customer bots though, running their mini-martingle bets over and over.  They eat away at the site profits, satoshi-by-satoshi.  And then they lose it all back.  It's fun.
7977  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 04:18:06 PM
I wasn't suggesting the game wasn't fair, but merely sharing my lack of luck publicly  Grin

I didn't know what you were suggesting, and considered that you were just posting a "wow, look at my sucky luck" picture.

But then I considered that others would see it and think "wow, they cheated you!", so I followed up with a luke-warm proof that it was fair.  Since you hadn't yet changed your seed, I can't publish the secret for people to verify the sequence for themselves (or you'd see what your next rolls are going to be, and I expect your luck would rapidly improve!)
7978  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 09, 2013, 04:14:04 PM
Usagi makes some very good points here.  Particularly recycling of the coins. OH jeeze that would be bad.

If I was going to invest the cold wallet coins somewhere, I think I would have to invest them in Just-Dice.  I know they're safe from theft there.

But that halves everyone else's profits and vastly increases my risk of ruin.  It would be as if every investor was risking 2% of their investment per roll, and giving half their profits to me.

I can achieve the same effect with no risk by increasing the commission to 50%.  The investors still lose half their profit, but the max bet isn't dangerously inflated.
7979  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Play or Invest : 1% House Edge : Banter++ on: July 09, 2013, 08:09:21 AM
Cry

Unlucky.  But provably fair:

Quote
$ ./lucky.js 1756 930632b0c58858cc7f151532bfbb32550c93a442fce8f8f8433c5861aa829cf9 732761316056812006739646 $secret | tail -20
1737 : 70.7767
1738 : 13.9626
1739 : 78.7447
1740 : 93.8757
1741 : 69.5691
1742 : 67.4583
1743 : 20.7577
1744 : 60.1988
1745 : 70.9953
1746 : 8.8085
1747 : 46.7611
1748 : 31.0237
1749 : 5.4583
1750 : 38.4261
1751 : 9.1101
1752 : 9.1041
1753 : 20.4566
1754 : 38.5827
1755 : 49.6463
1756 : 33.3851
7980  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game on: July 08, 2013, 08:10:28 PM
But given the choice I think I might prefer not to take his money and retain the ability to invest into just-dice.

That's a strange way of putting it.  I don't see it as "my money" and it strike me as odd that you do.
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