Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[petrescuerz]

dooglus is on it and it will be up soon.
Deb

[Bugpowder]

Back up.

And with a bigger investment pool 
site   30,131.83240351   

[petrescuerz]

And, we're back!
Deb

[dooglus]

Hmm. It seems martingaling is better only if your aiming to less than double your initial balance.

I'm willing to bet you're wrong on that too if you like?

The optimal strategy for going from X btc to Y btc is the one that minimizes the amount wagered. In the previous example of 3BTC -> 4BTC, the martingale of 1BTC -> 2BTC is better because 49.5% of the time only 1BTC is being wagered. We can do even better by betting less at a smaller winrate -- consider for example the following martingale of 3 bets:

0.58740084 BTC at 2.70241438x (36.6339%) -> if we lose 0.93244059BTC at the same rate -> if we lose 1.48015697BTC at this rate.

The expected values of each strategy:
1 bet -- (3btc @ 1.3333333x) -- 0.7425 success rate, EV = 2.97 BTC (-0.03)
2 bets -- (1btc, 2btc) --0.744975 success rate, EV = 2.9799 BTC (-0.0201)
3 bets -- (pattern above) -- 7455684 success rate, EV = 2.9823 BTC (-0.0177)


In theory, if BTC were infinitely divisible, one could start at an infinitesimal amount at "near-infinite" odds and apply this martingale to eliminate the house edge and obtain an EV of 3BTC.

In practice, small martingale style bets are better because they introduce scenarios where less BTC is bet and reduce the loss from house edge. The starting and target BTC amounts are irrelevant.

Thanks, and you're exactly right.

But now who's going to bet against me?!?

[dooglus]

The big disadvantage is that you have to trust the site with your BTC.  With Satoshi and the other dice programs, you only trust them with the amount you send for each individual bet.  On Just-Dice, you need to trust everything deposited. 

You can withdraw and re-deposit your balance between every bet if you like, and only deposit the amount you want to be.  Then it will feel just like SatoshiDice, and require the same level of trust... 

[infested999]

Any leaderboard support?

It is in the works

[stephwen]

 

[dooglus]

Unlucky.  But provably fair:

$ ./lucky.js 1756 930632b0c58858cc7f151532bfbb32550c93a442fce8f8f8433c5861aa829cf9 732761316056812006739646 $secret | tail -20
1737 : 70.7767
1738 : 13.9626
1739 : 78.7447
1740 : 93.8757
1741 : 69.5691
1742 : 67.4583
1743 : 20.7577
1744 : 60.1988
1745 : 70.9953
1746 : 8.8085
1747 : 46.7611
1748 : 31.0237
1749 : 5.4583
1750 : 38.4261
1751 : 9.1101
1752 : 9.1041
1753 : 20.4566
1754 : 38.5827
1755 : 49.6463
1756 : 33.3851

[stephwen]

I wasn't suggesting the game wasn't fair, but merely sharing my lack of luck publicly 

[inbox]

Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?

[nimda]

Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?

Watch the "wagered" amount.

All bots are third-party.

[infested999]

Buzz would like a 256 BTC loan to continue the martingale, and win everything back

[yummete]

https://i.imgur.com/WtJwEy2.png

Buzz would like a 256 BTC loan to continue the martingale, and win everything back

Feeling bad for him  , feeling good for my investments 

[BRules]

Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?

it's not 1 bet/s. When the bet has a lower value, it only shows one bet per second. But to see the numbers of bets per second you should look at the betid column, it's incremented by 1 with every bet. The site has an avarage of 20 bets per second now.

[zebedee]

Ah, I see - though it does seem a little risky to keep all funds in a single cold wallet, no? Why put all BTC in one basket (so to speak)?

Well there's a 2-million USD bounty if you prove you can reverse elliptic curve multiplication.  Is that risky?

There's an address with 111,111 BTC in it. Try that first. Then there are a bunch of them with 50,000 BTC each. Then a handful with 10,000 BTC each.

dabs - you don't know what you're talking about.  Even if you broke ECC you couldn't steal those coins.

[infested999]

Question: How much do you have to have invested into this site to live off of the investment.

Assumption: To live from your investment, you should make ~$30,000 per year. (Considering you don't pay any taxes)

Profit = (your investment % of site) * (wagered/month) * (.01)

The site was launched on June 20, and now it is July 9 (. There have been a total of 78,469.72206232 wagered. Total site invested: 25,748.67315358

Profit = 30000/100 (BTC/$ being $100)
% invested = (YOURINVEST)/25,748.67315358
wagered/year = 78,469.72206232/0.6557377049180328 * 12

300 = [(YOURINVEST)/25748.67315358]*[(78469.72206232/0.6557377049180328)*12]*[.01]
YOURINVEST = 537.92 BTC = 53,792 USD

This is also a big overestimation since it takes the average wagered amount since site launch, but in reality the amount wagered is growing exponentially.

[dooglus]

I wasn't suggesting the game wasn't fair, but merely sharing my lack of luck publicly 

I didn't know what you were suggesting, and considered that you were just posting a "wow, look at my sucky luck" picture.

But then I considered that others would see it and think "wow, they cheated you!", so I followed up with a luke-warm proof that it was fair.  Since you hadn't yet changed your seed, I can't publish the secret for people to verify the sequence for themselves (or you'd see what your next rolls are going to be, and I expect your luck would rapidly improve!)

[vlees]

I can't publish the secret for people to verify the sequence for themselves (or you'd see what your next rolls are going to be, and I expect your luck would rapidly improve!)

I don't get this. To verify this claim, could you please publish his secret?

[dooglus]

Seems like there is 1 bet/s at the moment. Are these the sites bots to fake activity?

If you look at the 'betid' column, you will see that there are usually many more than one bet per second.  The site streams results live to everyone who is currently connected, and to save bandwidth I only stream one bet per second unless the bets are of significant size.  Every bet of 0.01 BTC or more is streamed no matter how fast they happen.  But "dust" bets aren't shown, other than one per second to keep the display ticking over.

There are no site bots.  There are customer bots though, running their mini-martingle bets over and over.  They eat away at the site profits, satoshi-by-satoshi.  And then they lose it all back.  It's fun.

[dooglus]

dabs - you don't know what you're talking about.  Even if you broke ECC you couldn't steal those coins.

Presumably because you would still need to reverse the address hash to find out the public key for that address, whereas the cold wallet has made several spends already and so its public key is - uh - public?