To do a regression on bitcoin's long term trend, get rid of the manic price actions (the stuff in blue). Do a regression on the red data. You get the yellow line. Its equation is price = 10^(.09242*sqrt(d)-1.5011) where d is the days elapsed since September 11, 2010  I project a brief top between $150k and $200k around late 2021, followed by a grinding bear market reverting eventually to the base trend. Well, there are 4128 days between September 11 2010 and December 30 2021. Putting this into formula gives the price of $27342 , nowhere close to 150-200K Details: sqrt of 4128 is about 64.25, multiplication by 0.09242 gives about 5.938, which after subtracting 1.5011 results in 4.43684, which is your exponent. 10^4.43684 is 27342 maybe, adjust the number you are subtracting? Or, your order of operations is written incorrectly (multiplication precedes addition or subtraction) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_operationsI'm guessing that formula is a quantitative projection of the baseline, and the blowoff top number given (150k) is more of heuristic estimation according to historic baseline-peak ratios You've got the idea. This thread shows exactly how I arrived at the $150-200k quantitative projection of the next peak based on past quadrennial cycles, and includes some pretty pictures. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198154.msg52962479#msg52962479 |
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Top to bottom it's usually about 80 - 85%.
Was. Peaks follow the square root trend too (it's simply time-shifted). The math implies declining volatility. I have posted charts in the past to illustrate the declining volatility over time. If anybody's interested they're available by clicking on my profile. |
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What would the price be as we return to the base trend, post top?
Lemme see, bottom around March 2023, that's 12.5 years or 4565 days. Maybe $50k market bottom early 2023. That's assuming corn keeps loving the square root of time. The yellow line, going out, looks kind of steep to me. At some point the market's going to saturation regime, even if it's just incipient (in the coming years); sooner or later the curve will begin transitioning to what looks more like the logistic. That $50k contains a little dose of hopium. |
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To do a regression on bitcoin's long term trend, get rid of the manic price actions (the stuff in blue). Do a regression on the red data. You get the yellow line. Its equation is price = 10^(.09242*sqrt(d)-1.5011) where d is the days elapsed since September 11, 2010 I project a brief top between $150k and $200k around late 2021, followed by a grinding bear market reverting eventually to the base trend. |
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if you throw a coin three times and you got the head, it is mathematically very doubtful that you would also throw it for the fourth time in a row.
If a coin keeps coming up heads, seems to me that's prima facie evidence it's not a "fair" coin. Something about the coin makes it come up heads. Like the tail side is heavier, or whatever. So you got it backwards. The coin is actually more likely to come up heads again. Just kidding. Then there's this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy |
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whomever whoever put this together.
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I know y'all like pretty pictures  The weekly highs and lows are run through that quadratic on the left to render the traces. The blue cyclic function follows a quadrennial cycle of bull and bear synchronous with halvings, the first one which occurred in 2012. |
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Buy your tickets now. This train is leaving the station.  |
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[snip]
Brings back fond memories of engineering school, where any student who submitted a chart with no labels on the axes would get himself torn a new posterior orifice. |
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Thats why I'm paranoid about going any period of time not holding, it happened to me once and I'll be damned if I let it happen again.  Don't know if you've ever heard of it, but there's a family of moths in the order Lepidoptera called the Gambler Moths. They're known for their failure to hodl in the most critical times, and are strongly attracted to flame. The most famous species in this family is Opodiphthera huerstici. It was discovered by Vladimir Nabokov, and inspired him to write his novel Pale Fire. |
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Bitcoin is in the tenth year of a secular bull market.
The liquid market with rational price discovery began in 2010.
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This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?
Hey, all who asked about the graphs. I did them myself. attractor is 10^(0.093928*D^0.5-1.699) where D is days since Sept 8, 2010 If you're good with spreadsheets, you can work from there. Tx. I’m not that handy with excel. The chart indicating tops/bottoms; what formula does it use? It's a quadratic. You can use 113.347*(log(price)+1.699)^2 - D Obviously "price" is btc price in usd If there's a mistake it's because I'm typing this kind of in a hurry. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54352053#msg54352053 |
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In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective. Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.  How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price. For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price. In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor. Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.  Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing. Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell. At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator. Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold. For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below. When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically. Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor. Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory. The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care. bonus chart  Corn's riding right on the yellow line about now. |
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This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?
Hey, all who asked about the graphs. I did them myself. attractor is 10^(0.093928*D^0.5-1.699) where D is days since Sept 8, 2010 If you're good with spreadsheets, you can work from there. |
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In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective. Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend. How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price. For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25. It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price. In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor. Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function. Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing. Low break-even days indicates a good buy. An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell. At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator. Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold. For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below. When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically. Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor. Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory. The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing. As the saying goes, honey badger don't care. |
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So don't wear the mask. Make everyone else wear one.
Let's unpack this. You're promulgating advice. Let's call the recipient of this advice Joe Sixpack. Presumably, you wish Joe to execute your advice successfully; indeed, why offer advice otherwise. If your wishes come true, Elwar, alpha dog Joe will make everyone else wear masks. Therefore you will wear a mask, Elwar. You asked for it, you got it.   Okay but are fake tits being counted as real? It's the fat, not the silicone. Murriken bitches be winning the world cup of fat-ass-ness. |
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If I wanted to win big without losing anything, I wouldn't buy bitcoin at all.
I would buy shitcoins with my $50/week. (risk/reward ratio is through the roof compared to bitcoin)
What happened to you ? Blink twice if you are under duress. I have concerns. Why is the concern? Shitcoins are already at zero. You buy shitton of shitcoins with so little money. Look how they performed in the last bull run:  https://www.cryptocompare.com/portfolio-public/?id=120643That guy bought these for $10k btw. (He has a topic in this forum too can't bother to find it now. He is also on twitter, nick is HR) You think that's impossible to happen? Well, it already happened once. And yes that's still me. I didn't say I am buying shitcoins. (other than LTC and XMR but these are semi-shits, ltc is probably close to being complete shit. I always liked these 2 anyway.) Stick around, rusty. We need alternative voices. What do the Chinese characters on the notepad mean? |
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Good morning, colleagues in quarantine.
This isn't a quarantine. One quarantines only sick people. If the isolated is the entirety of the healthy population, then it's population confinement |
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Imagine Bitcoin is an albatross, flying across the ocean.
A jetliner (the stock market) plunges into the sea nearby.
Of course the albatross will wobble in its flight.
But that doesn't mean the jetliner and the albatross are correlated.
It just means they're in the same world.
And an albatross can fly around the world without landing.
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