Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[vapourminer]

Vegeta is back guys

... shall we play a game?

i am so glad i have no idea what this vegeta thing is.

i do get the CCMF bit so there is that as a plus in my favor

observing $9100+ USD (coinbase again, sorry) which is an even bigger plus

[1714657944]

1714657944

[kellrobinson]

In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.  
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

bonus chart



Corn's riding right on the yellow line about now.

[nutildah]

I have a new game.

It's called Degeta.

The first one to post a Degeta meme along with the price crossing under $9k ('stamp only... TradingView of 'stamp is acceptable) sends me 0.025 BTC.



Who's in?

[Globb0]

Slow down on that beer. You are not used to it

[El duderino_]

The best on our way to 10K meme or gif could gain some merit.... ?? 

Come on surprise me !!!

Let’s get there together and with some fun

[Globb0]

[Lucius]

https://tenor.com/view/bitcoin-10k-10thousand-10000-btc-gif-16271922

[Globb0]

I think this is from the late 1980s.  Should I drink it?

Similar dilemma,

This must be over 20 years old, only comes out when very drunk and nothing left. Still cant get it drunk. lol

[Phil_S]

If you have a false positive rate of between 10 - 15%, I’m not sure you can learn anything from a 12.3% positivity rate.  

About 2% in most rural areas, take a look at the numbers:
https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-results-completed-antibody-testing

Obviously that "false positive rate" number is way less than 10 - 15%. In reality it's maybe 1%...

Also keep in mind that grocery stores are not random samples.

Random enough. Everyone's grocery shopping.

People who think they have it, are much more likely to volunteer.   If 1 in 50 shoppers volunteer, you can do the math. 

I assume it's close to everyone (50 in 50 shoppers) volunteer, because why wouldn't they? I would. It's a free test, why not.

[Globb0]

I assume it's close to everyone (50 in 50 shoppers) volunteer, because why wouldn't they? I would. It's a free test, why not.

as we see here often, many Americans think the virus is imaginary and they can just shoot it if they see it.

They don't want to have to wear the yellow star.

[JohnBitCo]

[Last of the V8s]

Don't fall for their 'free test' ploy. They will hang on to the DNA sample you just gave them forever. /tin foil hat

[Phil_S]

as we see here often, many Americans think the virus is imaginary and they can just shoot it if they see it.

Maybe in some other state...

New Yorkers think it's quite real.

[Globb0]

as we see here often, many Americans think the virus is imaginary and they can just shoot it if they see it.

Maybe in some other state...

New Yorkers think it's quite real.

Yes sorry. I suppose its just they are the loudest shouters here

[vapourminer]

as we see here often, many Americans think the virus is imaginary and they can just shoot it if they see it.

while i have a fondness for small caliber weapons, i dont think any of my stuff is that small.

[Last of the V8s]

Maybe this is what we'd need

[Last of the V8s]

now that one works. what's wrong with the first one?

[JSRAW]

Size matters...

First one is high res image...

Maybe this is what we'd need

[vapourminer]

Size matters...

wait.

after all that time convincing my wife size doesnt matter.... great just great hope she doesnt see this.

[Wekkel]

This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?

Hey, all who asked about the graphs.  I did them myself.
attractor is
10^(0.093928*D^0.5-1.699)
where D is days since Sept 8, 2010
If you're good with spreadsheets, you can work from there.

Tx. I’m not that handy with excel.

The chart indicating tops/bottoms; what formula does it use?