Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nutildah]

@nutildah for you  

A few weeks ago my g.f. actually tried to make an alcoholic beverage with vinegar as the base ingredient. I didn't try it.

Just yesterday I had a real beer for the first time in over a month. It was delicious.

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[Cryptotourist]

Vegeta is back guys

... shall we play a game?

What game you want to play 😏

The Hateful Eight.

Basically he is tilting a little, just ignore.

[VB1001]

Mother's Day, don't forget to congratulate her, she is the only woman in your life who will never betray you.

[Phil_S]

Maybe, but alot of the antibody tests are reporting 10 - 15% false positive rates.

You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.

New York State sampling of random 15,000 people in grocery stores seems representative enough.

12.3% positives in the whole State.
19.9% positives in NYC.

About 2% in rural areas.

[SeaBits]

Mini cliff jumper @ ~$8,958

[bitebits]

We haven’t had any recent MtGox fud, did we? It shows incredible incompetence those coins are still not distributed to their rightful owners. It is almost as someone wants to keep some fud in their back pocket to be released at a convenient moment.

[cygan]

We haven’t had any recent MtGox fud, did we? It shows incredible incompetence those coins are still not distributed to their rightful owners. It is almost as someone wants to keep some fud in their back pocket to be released at a convenient moment.

i've had this impression for some time now.
there are meetings and meetings but somehow nothing really good comes out of it... 

[Syke]

We haven’t had any recent MtGox fud, did we? It shows incredible incompetence those coins are still not distributed to their rightful owners. It is almost as someone wants to keep some fud in their back pocket to be released at a convenient moment.

Soon™

[bitebits]

https://jlopp.github.io/us-marshals-bitcoin-auctions/

Total BTC seized and sold: 185,230
Total USD gained from sales: $151,440,000
Current USD value of all sold BTC: $1,662,722,652
Potential USD gains missed: $1,511,282,652

[AlcoHoDL]

Man, the British guy with the banner is dressed like he's going to Alaska, while Mark Karpelès is dressed like he's going to the beach...

Is it the fat or what?

[machasm]

https://jlopp.github.io/us-marshals-bitcoin-auctions/

Total BTC seized and sold: 185,230
Total USD gained from sales: $151,440,000
Current USD value of all sold BTC: $1,662,722,652
Potential USD gains missed: $1,511,282,652

Chumps.
They sold for the very thing that they can print for free.

[noormcs5]

We haven’t had any recent MtGox fud, did we? It shows incredible incompetence those coins are still not distributed to their rightful owners. It is almost as someone wants to keep some fud in their back pocket to be released at a convenient moment.

Don't think they are asleep, they are waiting for the right moment.

[Last of the V8s]

All Members

Had to send this as:-

    It is Sunday

    How a written page back in 1942 could have been written for the current world situation that we find ourselves in

    It's from his novel 'Screwtape Letters'



    Sums the current situation to a “T”



    Does this count on Government Statistics??

 Has everyone now caught up with all those jobs that you have been meaning to do for so long???

 Thank you Dennis W*** for these contributions

 
Hon Sec

[HairyMaclairy]

Maybe, but alot of the antibody tests are reporting 10 - 15% false positive rates.

You combine a 10% false positive rate with a failure to do random sampling (the people who volunteer for antibody testing think they have caught C19 or else you pick people already in hospital....) and you can't really draw any meaningful conclusions about the infection rate in the general population.

New York State sampling of random 15,000 people in grocery stores seems representative enough.

12.3% positives in the whole State.
19.9% positives in NYC.

About 2% in rural areas.

If you have a false positive rate of between 10 - 15%, I’m not sure you can learn anything from a 12.3% positivity rate.  

That’s pretty much exactly the result you would expect if no one had it.  

Also keep in mind that grocery stores are not random samples.  You still have to volunteer to be tested = self selecting sample.  People who think they have it, are much more likely to volunteer.   If 1 in 50 shoppers volunteer, you can do the math.  

[kellrobinson]

In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor. 
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

[Last of the V8s]

Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats

[Wekkel]

This ‘break even’ chart looks lovely. Where can we find the source?

[AlcoHoDL]

In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor.  
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

Very useful, thanks.

The graphs clearly show that the times around the Halving events (2012, 2016, 2020) are some of the best times to buy Bitcoin. Rather obvious to many of us, but it's very nice to see it pictured graphically so clearly.

[JayJuanGee]

In order to assess bitcoin’s price for investment purposes we need a long term perspective.
Now we identify a monotonic trend, which I'll call the attractor, and determine a method to compare current price to that trend.



How long it takes to break even at the price attractor serves as a useful criterion to judge the loftiness of the current price.
For example, on July 1 2014 bitcoin cost $638.25.  It took 879 days (yellow line) for the attractor (red curve) to reach that price.
In other words, it would take 879 days for coins bought on July 1 2014 to break even at the attractor.
Bitcoin's price history maps on this "break-even days" function.



Break-even days tells us how favorable the current exchange rate is for investing.
Low break-even days indicates a good buy.  An excessively high break-even time (perhaps 1000 days) means sell.
At intermediate values, you could gradually increase and decrease your bitcoin holdings in inverse proportion to the break-even days indicator.

Of course the critical question is whether the underlying trend continues to hold.
For about ten years, the attractor served as a reliable indicator of support that bitcoin always tended toward, when not in periods of mania, and didn't break below.
When the legacy markets crashed in March 2020, bitcoin's price broke through this long-established trend dramatically.
Bitcoin's subsequent behaviour, in my opinion, vindicates the robustness of the attractor. 
Price immediately rose after the crash without signs of weakness, met the attractor, and proceeded promptly into postive territory.
The crypto absorbed severe exogenous shock and shook it off like nothing.  As the saying goes, honey badger don't care.

You made those graphs yourself, kellrobinson - or did you get them from somewhere?

[HairyMaclairy]

Good of you to come out of your shell, Monsieur de la Hairy. You even seem to be making some sense. Congrats

Let’s not rush to judgment now

Good to see you hale and hearty