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Strong buy now imo. Anyone agree?
What happened was due to swaps. Did you watch the other exchanges? They followed to a certain point, but there was no selling pressure below $220 even when the sky was falling. These are cheap coins. not sure they are cheap coins. is it not likely that the current price ($232) is the old recent price of about $250 discounted down for the core/xt uncertainty? ie the spike may not have been about the core/xt issue but by happening it has lead people to react ie by not bringing it back to $250. if then it can drop $18 on $250 (7%?) that easily/quickly I think there is likely to be much more prospect of it dropping again in more chunks as larger and larger numbers react to the core/xt uncertainty. No market likes uncertainty especially not a volitile market like bitcoin. There was litte new demand before but now i see there being none until well into 2016 when things might be clearer. So its only existing players trying to outsmart existing players. sh*t fighting is its common use name. no place for weak hands |
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Price is falling - now $252. In these uncertain times for bitcoin it could easily go a lot lower and quickly The key questions are 1. will the person or group who would not it go below $177 last time (Jan 14th) come in again and 2. when (eg at $200 or $177 or lower).  |
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So is everyone supposed to sell their coins and then repurchase them on Bitcoin XT?
And where do you go to buy Bitcoin XT coins? You need not do anything until the actual fork i.e. once 75% of miners are using XT. At that point, QT is unlikely to recover; miners will quickly switch to mining the longest chain (XT). For regular users running Bitcoin software (i.e. a node), there's really no reason not to switch to XT (except as a not-taken-into-account protest vote). If XT wins, you'll be on XT. If XT doesn't achieve 75% or miner support, nothing changes. Well what's all the hubbub about then? Sounds like a smooth transition. Nobody will know the difference. I can't believe people are so stubborn. They are disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing. In fear of "centralization"? It sounds like a very decentralized process. But majority does rule. I'm pro-fork. I think the reason for all the hubbub is because that with no federal bank running things it is important to people who are in bitcoin in part for that very reason 1.how consensus is reached incl how and by whom aspects are "sold' as being necessary/good and 2. what precedent it might set that lead us down a certain path 3. who after it all sorts out has their nose left out of joint and what action will they take tldr - what happens over this matters |
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if public gets notice of this fork-thing we could easily go double digits.
Why? public doesnt understand those technical details. all that is noticed is that there i a turmoil going on and we have suddenly two versions of bitcoin. thats EXTREMELY irritating! agree although not sure it will hit it to 2 digits. previously anything that made bitcoin look "bad' eg used for buying drugs people know that drugs were bought with fiat long before bitcoin existed or the mtgox things - people know that intermediaries eg banks do corrupt things eg the LIBOR scandal. None of these bad things were actually related to bitcoin itself which I have always been telling people is very 'solid'. But to the person in the street the fork is the equivalent of having to look at very $20 note to see if the serial numbers on each end match. if this happened with fiat there would be much uncertainty. It is never a good thing for bitcoin when we are trying to tell people that it overcomes fiat issues and yet we now seem we have an issue that fiat does not have. |
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I think there will be interest in Gemini over itbit. Its all about name recognition and FOMO as much as fundementals.
I agree. Gemini has hardcore bitcoin supporters, the Winklevosses, behind it and have ties to the ETF. They seems more geared towards institutional investors than itBit. The name matters too, Gemini sounds much better than itBit. itBit has insurance covering clients' funds, does Gemini offer the same protection? yes if they have kept to the original idea https://blog.gemini.com/welcome-to-gemini/ |
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I wonder how much institutional money is ready to enter the bitcoin economy with Gemini?
The same that entered itbit. nada, zip, zilch, zero Why are institutional investors requesting early access then? not sure they are getting "early' access to the actual marketplace - the winklevii post indicates more to being just early form filling so they can trade at the same time as the small guys. maybe I am wrong. I think there will be interest in Gemini over itbit. Its all about name recognition and FOMO as much as fundementals. |
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Everyone was expecting a crash into the $250s, including me. The longer it takes to get there (IF it ever gets there), the more resistance will grow. The whales swim a little closer to the surface. We are one day closer to the halving than yesterday.
Yes, there is way too much long leverage, but whoever attempts a margin squeeze of the bulls risks losing all of their coins and then some. My positions are either long or margin long now.
Printing presses are starting up all over the world for a currency war. Gold is climbing. Stock markets are teetering. Bonds are paying almost no interest and the dumb money is starting to realize that the smart money already left the building.
Buckle up, boys. Big Money has been sitting in cash for months and now they know that not even THAT is safe anymore. Throw in some fear of capital controls and we are looking at a brewing perfect storm for crypto.
We're not on the launchpad yet, but the crawler is inching us towards it. Ground Control is going through checklists. News crews are setting up cameras. It's coming.
I think you are right. at some point bitcoin will "click" as you say in sports and demand will rise. I actually think the New York business for example is good for bitcoin in the longer term. There are still places for people to buy if they wish to avoid identification but most people that use banks - and it is these people we are after - are not unhappy about being identified. And where an organisation (here exchanges) has got the "approval' of the regulator then that gives them comfort and comfort will turn to use over time. Remember bitcoin is in no rush as of itself. ie it works now and will work in the future. It is always 'on" and ready for adoption as people get comfortable. |
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Willybot is next to irrelevant, as far as I'm concerned. Last ATH was China driven and almost no one in China was buying on MtGox. People still decided to part with fiat for bitcoins at that price, so that was the price. In fact, humans bought bitcoins off me at that price, so how is this anything to do with a bot?
yes as you say people really did pay real fiat to get hold of bitcoin at $1000 a time prices. so its "real'. but the bot took it up on gox and the other markets followed. surely you do not believe the chinese exchanges went up for other reasons? also besides the willy bot we have had in % terms even bigger drops afterwards eg $31 to $2 the key issue is when do we consider we are out of the crash that happened afterwards ie is $177 the price it would have got to without the willy bot spike or have the current manipulators stalled the drop at $177 from going much lower. No one wants to wake one morning and see it at $60 (which is where I think its low might be). But bitcoin is growing fast enough that even buying at current prices eg $270 (even if it goes to $60) in a year or two it will seen as a 'good sensible buy' rule #1 buy and hold rule #2 see rule #1 |
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[/quote]
In a perfect market price is the summation of all variables and fundamentals. Price failure is for the most part a reflection of conditions on the market reflecting either redundancy or technological failure.....and sometimes in bubbles that singular critical moment when the penny drops. But just because a trend line is penetrated does it mean that the future is set in stone either, aberrations in market pricing can and do happen regularly.
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I like this.
i disagree with people who say the price of bitcoin is irrelevant. Or as a separate from 'Bitcoin development' We who trade bitcoin markets are a crucial piece of Bitcoin. At times they call us 'speculators'
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I think traders (speculators) are most of the price of bitcoin or rather the price of bitcoin above say $50+/-$30?. the price of bitcoin has not yet (and may never) established some store of value. gold has ie it is $1000 +/- $300 over say 5 years
speculators chased the price of bitcoin to over $1000 on a willy bot not any fundementals.
same with now - several traders are moving the price around in the $200-$300 so any fundamental effect downward eg from lack of new demand or upward from pending etf etc cannot be seen even if it was occurring.
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i think 1 Bitcoin will be worth between range $500-$1000 in 2020 because i'm very doubt the bitcoin price can reach more than $1000
even in the next 5 year and i think highest price of bitcoin in 2020 only can reach $1000 and then could be back to $500 or less
I am more positive than that. i see that bitcoin has since 2012 grown more than 2.26 per annum but i use that factor to get a conservative bottom price if it crashed (but did not fail which would take it to near zero). So i see bitcoin being at the very least $5,365 in 2020. so buying now at around $300 should mean your investment grows 18 times in the period. Year Expected Lowest price 2012 $4 2013 $10 2014 $24 2015 $60 2016 $146 2017 $360 2018 $886 2019 $2,181 2020 $5,365 here is what the actual lowest price was Year Actual 2012 $4 2013 $13 2014 $302 2015 $177 2016 n/a 2017 n/a 2018 n/a 2019 n/a 2020 n/a |
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the results are much different if people have to vote with their money ie bet.
on ipredict.co.nz
86% of people say the price will be between 100-500 and 4.7% from 50-100 and a further 1.7% of below 50.
all up then 92.4% think it will be below $500.
but in case there is another willy bot I have some bets that it will be above $500 and some bets it will below $100. ( i happen to believe that without the manipulators (eg those that intervened at $177 a while back) the price would have gone down to $60 ie post willy bot that is where the price should have fallen to. And be back to a new bottom of $146 n 2016 and a new bottom of $360 in 2017. that is still at least a 2.46 times increase every year since the $4 of 2012.
So i see buying bitcoins even at todays price of $276 is still ok as longer term it will still seem cheap without it ever suddenly needing to go to the moon - as nice as that would be
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[/quote]
so leave it to the market, it wasn't ever agreed developers could manipulate the protocol to adjust fees to a level they dreamed appropriate, that's a Comical idea.
as pointed out many times by many people transaction fees are subsidized by block rewards, fees will increase when the reword drops enough, and the rewards are necessary to grow the network, who could argue what the correct fare for a taxi should be if 99% of the fee is subsidized by the cab company.
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very apt analogy
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The supply of bitcoins will continue to increase after the halving, albeit at half the rate. There will be no decrease or restriction of supply.
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agree so the halving is like adding a cup of hot water in a cold bath.
what also distorts any limited price movement is that in the lead up people will make their own assessments about the impact on price so by the time it happens they may have "over valued" it ie the price may actually fall a bit
finally if you look at 2015 to date the price has been roughly $250 +/- $50. ie about 20%+/_ so i think there is so much "swirl" (volatility) in price that you may not even be able to see a reaction to the halving when it happens.
best turn your energy and efforts to slowly buying and holding.
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I just checked Finex's Twitter and they posted this:
"We had an issue while rolling out an update, we're working to get the site back up ASAP. Sorry for the inconvenience."
Hopefully it's just a technical glitch.
Thanks, I have been regularly checking their tweets and they must have tweeted a minute after the last time I checked. This is the link to the latest one about an update problem. https://twitter.com/bitfinex/status/623168945332158464Btc-e also tweeted why they are offline. It's got something to do with a datacenter. Here's the link to it in case anyone want's to check for themselves. https://twitter.com/btcecom/status/623116256334454784It seems like it's only a coincidence that both sites went down about the same time. this is why the winklevii will do so well when they launch. people will have much less suspicion/fear (often justified with gox etc) when their exchange is down |
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Sigh, "outside money will come" ... just like ponzi schemes "money has to come" to fuel price increase, bitcoin is not a liquid asset it is a non tangible asset account / commodity contract at best. All of it is based on backless speculative value... The dream for 1000+ dollars a bitcoin is a wishful dream, but who will be fueling that price increasing? Are you going to find an outside money source? (banks, inv funds) They currently have marked bitcoin as a commodity , and as such no standard liquid value besides perceived speculative value. (think of it as the dutch tulips, beanie babies, etc) side note: for those that want more understanding of "asset classes" google "what is bitcoin classified as" .. some articles: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-classified-commodity-finland-central-bank/ | http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-03-25/bitcoin-is-property-not-currency-in-tax-system-irs-saysbitcoin a commodity? hardly. Commodities: wheat, sugar, corn, oil are being CONSUMED Bitcoin, once "mined', can be used many times, some might say essentially forever (until it is lost) You do realized i said commodity contract right .. also right before that I also stated it as a non tangible asset account... You are cherry picking my statements... and there is a whole crap ton of other commodities you forgot to put in like gold , silver , precious metals etc , and oranges , pigs, etc etc ? Side note: approx 5% of bitcoins are lost per annum ( year over year...) so you are somewhat right about it being lost and you should look into calculating the depreciative value .. Example: type in 20,000,000 - 6 ,000,000(30%) and then do a 5% lost on yield year over year calculation and tell me when you reach 5,000,000 bitcoins wrong. a ponzi scheme needs new people to come in so the early people can cash out with big profits. with bitcoin the early people eg that got in at single figures or less will do well when selling but the new entrants are not being enticed into buying bitcoins because of some promised artificial future rate of return. the price of bitcoin may be inflated by speculation but again that does not make it a ponzi scheme. finally bitcoin (as a transmission service ) works at any price level. the commodity issue is also not really an issue either. it may effect the way a country taxes it etc but users adjust to what ever the local factors allow/permit. bitcoin is slow to get in new users but we still have flakey exchanges and people have to set up wallets etc so it is not a one button click to get involved. but fiat and visa and western union have been long term in the market so it is going to take some time to get some traction. but bitcoin can grow slowly or fast - it matters not. so long as it survives ie no fundamental flaw found it will continue to grow. But then you knew that before you even posted didn't you. |
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is mt gox that long ago? then speculators chased the willy bot up to $1000. the bot started it ie manipulated it but greed kept it going. now we have had the price imho held at around the $230 level ie manipulated - there may be no bot but the effect is the same - ie price altering. those holding the price from dropping were waiting for whatever reason for the upswing. well it has come and is fast $230 to $290 in a matter of days after weeks of no real upwards movements in price. so if buying in at $290 or higher you have got to ask yourself - what am I chasing and whatever it is when it stops what will happen to the price without buying support. then again if it pops to $600 and you cash out there you have still doubled your money. I love bitcoin when its like this. Welcome back brother Volatility |
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I think we are over focusing on the current price - we know at the top most of it is speculation but if you look at the bottom the story is still very bullish if you are slowly buying a little regularly at the daily price. below are 2 charts. they track the lowest price in a year from 2012. the first assumes the $177 2015 bottom will prove to be a genuine bottom. the second that if big whales has not intervened it would have gone to $60. I have made factors that are not very mathematically good but work crudely enough to be useful for me. they show that 1. if $60 was the bottom and I buy now at $270 the bottom in 2017 will still be higher (at $360) and even in 2016 the bottom will still be quite good (at $146). 2. if $177 was the true bottom then buying now at $270 the bottom may be way higher (at $626) in one year (2016) I see those numbers as very bullish compared to other things people can invest in (shares etc) as well as supporting the idea of bitcoin. Year Expected Lowest price Factor Actual Minus is underestimation 2012 $4 $4 2013 $14 3.537 $13 8.83% 2014 $50 3.537 $302 -83.43% 2015 $177 3.537 $177 0.00% 2016 $626 3.537 2017 $2,214 Year Expected Lowest price Factor Actual Minus is Underestimation 2012 $4 $4 2013 $10 2.46 $13 -24.31% 2014 $24 2.46 $302 -91.98% 2015 $60 2.46 $60 -0.75% 2016 $146 2.46 2017 $360 2.46 I've been buying bitcoins regularly and on an ongoing basis, but my average buyin price is still near $500... hahahhaha... gonna take a while before I am in the black... I like the idea of $600 coins in 2016 or $2,200 coins in 2017, but the idea of $360 coins in 2017 would NOT be so helpful. to my psychology... but I suppose, even that reflects btc prices continuing to increase in value from today's price. yes my average buy price is sadly around what yours is but my chart says the the future is very bright and over time coins bought a year or two earlier at so called "high" prices will seem like a "steal". Optimism is contagious |
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I think we are over focusing on the current price - we know at the top most of it is speculation but if you look at the bottom the story is still very bullish if you are slowly buying a little regularly at the daily price. below are 2 charts. they track the lowest price in a year from 2012. the first assumes the $177 2015 bottom will prove to be a genuine bottom. the second that if big whales has not intervened it would have gone to $60. I have made factors that are not very mathematically good but work crudely enough to be useful for me. they show that 1. if $60 was the bottom and I buy now at $270 the bottom in 2017 will still be higher (at $360) and even in 2016 the bottom will still be quite good (at $146). 2. if $177 was the true bottom then buying now at $270 the bottom may be way higher (at $626) in one year (2016) I see those numbers as very bullish compared to other things people can invest in (shares etc) as well as supporting the idea of bitcoin. Year Expected Lowest price Factor Actual Minus is underestimation 2012 $4 $4 2013 $14 3.537 $13 8.83% 2014 $50 3.537 $302 -83.43% 2015 $177 3.537 $177 0.00% 2016 $626 3.537 2017 $2,214 Year Expected Lowest price Factor Actual Minus is Underestimation 2012 $4 $4 2013 $10 2.46 $13 -24.31% 2014 $24 2.46 $302 -91.98% 2015 $60 2.46 $60 -0.75% 2016 $146 2.46 2017 $360 2.46 |
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if the Greece news turns out to be the same as Cyprus back at 2013(?) then your prediction of to da moon is going to be right.
honestly with the recent $268 spike i believe now that the huge breakout is a strong possibility now.
When the price was down to 215 the whole forum was screaming it's going to go down to 120. Now the whole forum is screaming it's going to go to 300 after a pump to 268+. The price might do the opposite of what everyone thinks it's going to do again. not quite as I remember it. at $215 the forum was saying the price was being artifically held at the $200-$230 range which it was. and yes it may well have gone well below $120 if a whale or two had not stepped in. and the whole forum is not now saying $300 - the way I read it people do not know why it is going up (perhaps a pump) - it is not from new money coming in and not from the Greek crisis so the price is being speculated heavily and may well go over $300 quickly. but nothing has changed in a fundamental sense so people buying now should realise when there is a dump that the whale might be gone this time and it may well do down below $215. if you can afford to lose $100 or more per bitcoin in the short term then jump in now by all means. will resurrect this post in 3 months time - that should be enough to see what really has happened... maybe I will be wrong and own up (but I doubt I will need to.  ) |
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NHJT, tarmi, luckyenough, ezmoneyezlife, Yourmother and the dumbshit nlc have gone awfully quiet.
What happened to double digits?!
they are looking for the password of the accounts they use to post train and rocket pictures and to say that bitcoin will reach 1M in one year when in the middle of a bubble, like in 2013 So true. the problem with rockets in the past is that they have been things like the willy bot. people chased that rocket and got burnt (badly). it was only a few weeks ago we were all saying there is no new demand - which was and is still true. further the market was manipulated to not drop below $200. we now suddenly have a bit of a surge that looks to me just like typical/traditional bitcoin volatility. since most of the buying/selling is speculative the price in a months time could be anywhere from say $1000-$60. buying slowly in small amounts for the longer term it will matter little to your long term wealth whether you get your next few bitcoins at $60 or $1000 as you will still be very rich. But it will matter if you are buying in big time hoping to clean up big time in a matter of days but hey go for it if you have deep pockets or a tolerant lender if the money is borrowed |
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