But the 101 proposal of doubling every couple years is pure insanity.
This is not just a ledger that might exist on a few select locations around the world. This is a ledger that should exist on every computer around the world. The best security or guarantee of authentic transactions is when as many as possible can hold and parse the full Blockchain. This will not happen if you just double by arbitrary rule instead of calculated increases decided by need.
I think that doubling every two years is silly, because it is ridiculously optimistic.
But note that what will increase is the block size LIMIT, not the block SIZE (although the small-blockians always say the latter).
The block SIZE will just continue to grow (or not) gradually, proportionally to the traffic. Right now the numbers are ~450 kB and ~120'000 tx/day. The traffic doubled in the past 12 months, from 60'000 tx/day, growing almost constantly at 5000 tx/day per month.
The traffic now is more than half of the network's capacity, which was revealed in the recent stress tests: ~750 kB/block, ~200'000 tx/day. (It is less than 1 MB/block because of many empty blocks, due to the way miners work, and to partially full blocks, that some miners generate by choice.)
If it keeps growing at the same pace of the last 12 months, and the block size limit remains 1 MB, "traffic jams" should become frequent at peak hours in mid-2016, or maybe earlier, when the traffic will be 180'000 tx/day or so; and then the traffic should stop growing, as any new adoption will have to be matched by a similar "un-adoption".
If the block size limit is increased to 8 MB, the traffic may keep growing naturally and gradually beyond that 180'000 tx/day limit. There is no reason to think that the traffic will grow faster just because the size limit has been lifted. The limit has been 1 MB/block since 2010, and yet the traffic has always been well below the network's capacity, even during the Nov/2013 rally and later crashes (except for the recent "stress tests"). So, the doubling of the limit every two years will, quite probably, have no effect whatsoever on the traffic (and therefore on the average block size).
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