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81  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: March 26, 2015, 04:12:53 PM
If I understand there won't really be any "new" money coming into bitcoin.  The only way I can buy shares is if somebody in the trust is willing to sell.  The trust won't be buying new bitcoins like the winklevoss thing. 

As always, qualified accredited investors may choose to invest in shares of the BIT directly through the BIT's ongoing private placement at the daily NAV/share1.
82  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 19, 2015, 12:16:29 PM
I believe people should listen to this old wisdom from our friend.

if you sell now, you sell for good.
the warning above is still valid.
83  Local / Skandinavisk / Re: Mva på bitcoin, Lighthouse-prosjekt on: March 13, 2015, 01:57:57 PM
Deloitte jobbar vidare med eit spørsmål om utanlandsk børshandel med bitcoin.  Etter mi meining kan det samanliknast med enkelte former for derivathandel og handel med finansielle instrument.  Du betaler til dømes ikkje mva dersom du kjøper ein eigrdel i ei gullbarre som ligg i ein bank i Sveits, berre om du flyttar det fysiske gullet til Noreg.  Kan det vere mogeleg å sleppe unda mva dersom det ikkje føregår ei overføring av bitcoin som anna enn ein eigardel av ein felles pott som børsen har?  Kunden kan sjølvsagt ta ut sin del i ettertid, men det er ein separat transaksjon som eg ikkje har kontroll over.

Kjøper man en gullbarre i Sveits og putter den i en bankboks der så betaler man ikke MVA selv om man tar med seg nøkkelen hjem til Norge. Man burde derfor heller ikke betale MVA av Bitcoin selv om man har nøkkelen i Norge.
84  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2015, 06:25:45 PM
Again, my original point was that the future value of bitcoin is being predicated to a large extent on the 21m cap, a belief based on faith more than reality.

I think it's predicated mostly on the belief that the majority of people (miners in this case) will act rationally.  I would say that most miners consider the 21M coin cap to be a defining characteristic of Bitcoin, and probably the most important characteristic that gives the coin value.  If you accept that premise, then it is logical to assume that miners will not act irrationally by destroying the value that is their whole incentive for mining in the first place.


Good point, well made.

But raising the cap would be  an indirect consequence of adjusting the halving frequency, so by increasing the cap, you would be extending the [higher] reward period for miners

Since we havent reached the point where tx fees outweigh coin reward, do you think that might become an incentive for miners to increase the cap? (bear in mind that it would be a slow process, with no immediate dump of coins on the market.)



The miners can try to increase the cap all they want. The regular users will not use their new-cap-software.
85  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2015, 07:45:12 PM
The 47 moved into 27k and 20k.

https://blockchain.info/address/1DNM1TgbL8yYTsDzADw9W17Es2BEezMBpi

Now we have 27k, 20k and 3k.

Looks like 20k and 3k are winners since they received 0.05 first.

Unless an individual is splitting them for some reason

The winners of the last auction also received 0.05 as a "test transfer" before they got the whole amount.

https://blockchain.info/tx/3ecfb236f63750f188a8a738bd3f9027aa9d4b9f0b3292f69a91bcee6e843b1a
86  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2015, 07:36:43 PM
The 47 moved into 27k and 20k.

https://blockchain.info/address/1DNM1TgbL8yYTsDzADw9W17Es2BEezMBpi

Now we have 27k, 20k and 3k.

Looks like 20k and 3k are winners since they received 0.05 first.
87  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2015, 06:00:56 PM
Ah, sorry, I misunderstood.

No problem  Wink
88  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2015, 05:56:42 PM
Oh, so you're saying it's because of the dollar. But what do you think that means in terms of bitcoin?

I'm saying it's happening on Kraken because of the weak euro. I don't think it says much about bitcoin. (But higher bitcoin prices in USD on the other exchanges is positive for bitcoin.)
89  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2015, 05:49:20 PM
ooh, $294 gonna fall tonight?
Certainly looks that way. Lots of nice bids piling up on BFX. Shorts closing though, so anything too spectacular is bound to collapse back down, at least temporarily.

Long term downtrend breakout on Kraken BTC/EUR 1m.  Smiley

Had to look this up. It's true. QE in the Eurozone might be a driver for rising bitcoin prices.
Small exchanges do random things all the time. There is no significance if they break an uptrend or downtrend before any of the real exchanges. Not to say they all wont. But who cares about Kraken?

It's not a random thing. The price is lower than on Bitstamp.

It still doesn't matter what an exchange that small does. It wouldn't matter if someone dumped down to $10 on Kraken. They mean nothing.

It's the USD/Euro exchange rate that makes this happen now. Not that Kraken is a small exchange.
90  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2015, 05:46:01 PM
Long term downtrend breakout on Kraken BTC/EUR 1m.  Smiley

Had to look this up. It's true. QE in the Eurozone might be a driver for rising bitcoin prices.
Small exchanges do random things all the time. There is no significance if they break an uptrend or downtrend before any of the real exchanges. Not to say they all wont. But who cares about Kraken?

It's not a random thing. The price is lower than on Bitstamp.
91  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2015, 04:58:45 PM

Did they split them first to another address last time or can we assume a single winning bidder?

EDIT: thinking about it, would be surprised if the winning bidder wasn't using a multisig address

They moved them several times before they paid the winners after the last auction.
92  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 09, 2015, 04:49:21 PM
Auction coins are on the move.

All coins to one address so far...

https://blockchain.info/tx/3e1754e8ea62dacb9a17d45a2e4c1acdcbbc1ce1b6c39f59b5336409a0adfa5e
93  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to USD on: March 09, 2015, 12:04:51 AM
Since USD is going up because of oil, and currencies like CAD and EURO are dropping. From now I'm thinking about exchanging BTC to USD, wait until it drops or until CAD catches up and then change it back. Wat y'all think?

You want to lose value?  Roll Eyes
94  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 06, 2015, 09:16:00 PM
Gold will exist in 20 years, BTC not sure

But what will the value of gold be in 20 years?
95  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2015, 04:47:56 PM
so i guess there will be no more auction  Huh and price will steadily rises from here ?

Pretty sure we have one more auction left for ~44k BTC.

Is there any way to know which prices are they managing? Without them saying it of course

Is there some track on those btc?

I presume these wallets are splitted and sold as-is. That means we cannot know what their address(es) is/are if not a seller reveals it/them for us.

This is the 50k sold now: https://blockchain.info/address/12pCPrWvudnefJCtXQUBcm9z2NogtC3Rix
This is the 44k to be sold later: https://blockchain.info/address/1CaGxqCQv2ofqLf37HCUQoLujzRMaz74LK
96  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2015, 10:49:02 PM
so Tim didnt dollar average his coins?

it is worse than I thought.


Hasn't sold his stash though - and did say it was 'the best deal anyone would get'

Is that bad?

He also bought some more at $200 some weeks ago.
97  Economy / Speculation / Re: Automated posting on: March 05, 2015, 02:45:44 PM
I am familiar with this auction. But I am not sure if this event is already over already? And I can tell you that auctions are pretty tricky. After all you can buy something not so cheap when there are strong competition going. So bitcoins obtained that way could be not so cheap...

Last time it was a blind auction. We don't know the winning bid even today. Though I'm thinking Tim Draper probably regrets it a little.

Last time he only bought 2k. But the first time...
98  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2015, 02:44:20 PM
What time do auction details get released?

Maybe never.
99  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 05, 2015, 10:12:46 AM
when is the auction over?

8 hours and 48 mins from now.
100  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2015, 09:02:45 PM
I have been buying constantly with every paycheck the last 10 months, and made a big buy two weeks ago.

And now, I just discovered: I'm almost break even!!!!  Grin

Nå begynner moroa  Cool
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