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81  Economy / Speculation / Re: How to predict crash? on: November 15, 2013, 04:28:49 PM
Nobody here can answer this question.

This guy, Didier Sornette, can, and has proven it:
http://www.ted.com/talks/didier_sornette_how_we_can_predict_the_next_financial_crisis.html

Probably related to Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) crash prediction:
http://www2.math.su.se/matstat/reports/serieb/2009/rep7/report.pdf

I'm working on my prediction, trying to use LPPL applied to Bitcoin data. Will post when I have results!
82  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: November 14, 2013, 07:41:32 PM
There are more than 24 million USD worth of bids at MtGox.  There were only 12 million USD in bids a few weeks ago.

Doesn't that also mean there's twice as many sellers as last week? I.e. people wanting to cash out.

More than one million USD worth of other currencies (mainly JPY) are leaving MtGox every day, and I assume some people are depositing as well.

There are many more deposits coming in than withdrawals out. A lot of people want to cash out at $400 or $500, but they can't, at least not on Mt.Gox, since it would take 8 weeks of uncertainty. So they cancel withdrawals and move BTC elsewhere. Bitstamp, Coindesk etc. Soon there's going to be an exodus to exchanges, wherever people can convert to USD/EUR.
83  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: November 14, 2013, 07:34:32 PM
Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.

It might also increase trust in bitcoin and the ecosystem, which could lead to another run-up.

Hi, how exactly does money stuck in an exchange increase trust in Bitcoin? It lowers trust, because people wanting to cash out are frustrated thinking "what good is Bitcoin if you can't get your money out to pay rent".

The effect is a dam reservoir of Bitcoin waiting to be cashed out. If you can only put money into BTC, but not out, then the price goes up. Which is what we see happening. But once the "flood gates" open again, BTC price will come crashing down as people dying to cash out will cash out.



84  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: November 14, 2013, 12:45:55 PM
Money stuck in exchanges keeps the Bitcoin price artificially high. If Mt.Gox ever processes all withdrawals, more people will convert to fiat to get their money out. So prepare for a price drop when they do.
85  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC $100 difference between the exchanges on: November 13, 2013, 01:01:33 PM
The price differences come down to ease of moving fiat.

BTC-e charges 2% for OK-pay deposits, and OK-pay also charges 2%. So $375 on BTC-e * 1,04 = $390 on Bitstamp. Because it costs you $390 to get $375 of value into BTC-e.

Same for Mt.Gox, withdrawal difficulty is hard.

In China, there is premium because of high demand, and it costs $$ to move BTC from the Western world to China. Eventually China will lead though.

86  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: November 05, 2013, 08:50:03 AM
After waiting for nearly 4 weeks, I have asked them to cancel my sepa withdrawal, what they almost instantly did.

Then I bought some BTC and transferred them to my wallet.

This "artificial demand" drives the price higher and higher. Until the day MtGox goes bankrupt.

Indeed, the btc price is only rising because most people cannot withdraw fiat. So the price is very artificial and will eventually deflate back to $100-$120. At current $230 price you would expect a lot of early adopters to cash out, earning millions. But gox can't deliver and other exchanges don't have enough cash.
87  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: November 05, 2013, 08:45:15 AM
Gox sez:

Quote
Situation as of 4 November 2013: We are currently processing withdrawals requested six weeks ago.

So, if someone has a SEPA withdrawal waiting from  Sep 23 or earlier, they should be processed soonish. They do not seem to be catching up though, so the SEPA queue will likely be getting longer and longer.

I asked mtgox to cancel my withdrawal totalling 25,000 EUR. I converted to btc and moved to bitstamp. Sold on bitstamp and got my money 3 days later!

I recommend to abandon mtgox.
88  Local / Nederlands (Dutch) / Re: Nederlandse hackers plunderen rekeningen & witwassen geld via Bitcoin on: November 01, 2013, 10:00:58 AM
I have fiat money on there, I sold BTC but had not yet withdrawn it to my bank.

Am I totally screwed?

Yes, of course you are. You were doing business with money launderers. You are probably a suspect yourself now.
89  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: October 21, 2013, 12:10:42 PM
Waiting for Euro 10k SEPA transfer for >1 month now. Trusted Gox account. Getting impatient.


My 10k Euro arrived on 18 Oct. Withdrawal date 12 Sep. Phew.

PS: I lost 110 Euro somewhere between MtGox/Poland and my bank in a neighboring country. Can't be SEPA, so MtGox took it? Fees? (haven't used Euro withdrawal before)


Miracles do happen from time to time. If 1 in 100 request gets filled, then its a good indication they are broke.


The EUR withdrawals have been working consistently for me since August. It just takes anywhere from 2-6 weeks.
90  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: October 17, 2013, 07:50:44 AM
@sturle, the MtGox master shill:

My key point is:

Why would anyone transfer USD, EUR, JPY, ... to MtGox when you can buy Bitcoins at any other exchange for ~10% less?


People who think to make a profit wire BTC to MtGox and sell there. This gives MtGox a steady supply of BTC. And they will hold your cash for 6-8 weeks before a payout (at least in EUR).
91  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: [ANN] I offer free XRP (ripple) to anyone willing to fund an account on: October 10, 2013, 09:10:18 AM
Are you from Nigeria?       Grin

Are you a dumb racist american ?

Are you a dumb racist nigerian?
92  Local / Nederlands (Dutch) / Re: Bitonic.nl of Bitmymoney? on: September 09, 2013, 07:41:40 PM
Ik raad Bitonic aan, omdat hun concept werkt in Nederland. Ze richten zich met iDEAL alléén op Nederland. De truc is dat iDEAL écht onomkeerbaar is, in tegenstelling tot bijvoorbeeld SEPA, Giropay etc.

Maar hackers die met gestolen bankrekeningen of pinpassen bij Bitonic Bitcoins kopen, komen er mee weg. Mocht je dus iemand z'n pincode weten en z'n pas "lenen", kun je hun rekening kaalplunderen bij Bitonic, en je Bitcoins op Mt.Gox verkopen - of gewoon weer aan Bitonic Smiley Natuurlijk heeft Bitonic algorithmes om problemen te detecteren, maar die is niet feilloos, dat bestaat niet.

Bovendien vraagt Bitonic niet om identificatie / kopie paspoort, terwijl dit volgens de Nederlandse geld witwas-wetten verplicht is. De wet tegen Witwassen en Financiering van Terrorisme.  Een iDEAL betaling is dus géén identifiatie, want je kan met de pas van je ex-vriendin, zonder haar medeweten, haar geld uitgeven aan Bitcoins. Daar kom je dus straffeloos mee weg op Bitonic.

Het verhaal ligt echter heel anders met het Europese SEPA: SEPA-overboekingen kunnen to 10 werkdagen worden gestorneerd. Ze zijn dus omkeerbaar en heten niet voor niets SEPA Credit Transfer (credit, dus geen debit). Europese exchanges zijn daardoor massaal slachtoffer van fraude. Zelfs Mt.Gox heeft tonnen verloren aan SEPA-storneringen.
93  Local / Nederlands (Dutch) / Re: Hegemonie van mtgox doorbroken on: September 09, 2013, 07:32:15 PM
Ja leuk, ik heb nog 20.000 EUR in Mt.Gox hangende een withdrawal. Hopelijk krijg ik die nog terug voor de tent in elkaar flikkert. Die exchanges zijn allemaal piramidespellen.
94  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 20, 2013, 06:13:06 PM
Requested 10,000 EUR on 8/8/2013 via SEPA transfer, received 9,900 EUR on 20/8/2013.

Mt.Gox took 1% apparently (100 EUR) - I wasn't aware of that.

Still waiting for 2 more such withdrawals.

I have a Trusted Account with verified banks in the Euro Zone.

I usually receive 9,915€ for those - I guess it's not only Gox, there are other parties taking commissions.

I guess so. I find it bit strange. When I wire 10,000 to Mt.Gox it only costs 1.20 EUR instead of 100 EUR. I guess their bank's withdrawals have different rates. I thought the EUR SEPA zone was supposed to get rid of these costs.

Anyway, of course I'm very happy to receive funds.
95  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 20, 2013, 05:53:03 PM
Requested 10,000 EUR on 8/8/2013 via SEPA transfer, received 9,900 EUR on 20/8/2013.

Mt.Gox took 1% apparently (100 EUR) - I wasn't aware of that.

Still waiting for 2 more such withdrawals.

I have a Trusted Account with verified banks in the Euro Zone.
96  Bitcoin / Project Development / [FOR SALE] BitServiceX, a Bitcoin buy/sell/trade site built on Drupal 7 on: August 16, 2013, 08:44:33 AM
Hello,

I am putting up www.bitservicex.com for sale for 50 BTC, or make an offer. I also accept EUR, but sadly not USD.

BitServiceX originally focuses on the EURO/SEPA market with EUR trading, although the software can be adapted -if needed- to run USD instead of EUR. BitServiceX was founded a few months ago, focusing on EUR / SEPA trades. The site is built on Drupal 7 with several custom modules.

If you are planning to develop your own Bitcoin exchange, and know how to use Drupal, then this is an attractive starting point. B

  • Multi-lingual front-end: English, German, Dutch and French - most content is translated, including emails
  • Offers basic trading engine (on MySQL / PHP)
  • Offers extended admin overviews
  • Supports Google Authenticator account and withdrawal protection (with mobile QR code to setup Gauth)
  • Built on Drupal 7 www.drupal.org
  • Offers verification workflow: unverified user, verified user, verified trader (each with configurable permissions)
  • Integrates with Mt.Gox for direct-buy
  • Offers user email notifications for many activities
  • User passwords protected with AES 256
  • Integrated with Buckaroo payment service provider (in the Netherlands) for iDEAL, Giropay, Sofort
  • Server is Ubuntu Liniux 10.04
  • Server runs bitcoind daemon, used for verifying a Bitcoin address
  • Users can deposit funds to the server, which will be credited to their accounts automatically
  • Bitcoins are stored at Mt.Gox, not on the server!
  • All automated Mt.Gox transactions are protected with HOTP API access (you configure this in your Mt.Gox account as well)
  • Integrates with CloudFlare Pro/Business for ddos protection
  • Site is maintained with basic git repository
  • Site has a Staging site at staging.bitservicex.com (htpasswd protected) copy also maintained with git
  • Site forces use of https (you will need a SSL certificate - also works with CloudFlare)
  • Bad Behavior to block spambots / spiders
  • Many more features.... please ask questions

What is for sale?
  • The domain names bitservicex.com, .nl, .de, .fr, .co.uk
  • The fully configured Linux root server from HostEurope (costs 49 EUR / month); you can take over the contract for 50 EUR one-time fee

What is NOT for sale?
The user verification passports/addresses are NOT for sale. Although you can buy the user accounts, the passports will be deleted. I am legally not allowed to sell you such information. Such private information will be deleted, but existing users can still login and re-verify their accounts.

Why are you selling this project?
Like most Bitcoin merchants I have fought hard and long with my Payment Service Provider, and with my bank. Sadly, selling Bitcoins is no longer possible for me.

Who should buy this project?
Only buy this project if you know PHP/MySQL, Ubuntu Linux and are familiar with Drupal 7. I can provide some support during the first month post-sale, but after that you're on your own.

How to buy this project?
Let me know your offer via PM.

We can meet in person and complete the sale/transaction in Amsterdam/The Netherlands.

Alternatively, if you cannot visit Amsterdam, I can send you admin access to run the site, but will transfer the domains and server access only after receiving payment.

I will be on holidays until Monday, Sept 2nd. After that we can arrange the transaction.

Further questions?
If you have any questions, feel free to ask.
97  Economy / Speculation / Re: why is price on BitStamp always 8-10% lower than Gox? on: August 15, 2013, 07:35:58 AM
To answer the original question: BitStamp prices are really EUR prices converted to USD. Most BitStamp users are in the Euro-Zone and deposit in EUR.

For example (with today's rates):

1. Deposit 1000 EUR to Bitstamp = 1329 USD
2. Buy Bitcoin = 13.34793581 BTC @~99 USD

Now you can move this BTC to Mt.Gox

3a. Sell back to USD on Mt.Gox: 1489 USD
3b. Sell back to EUR on Mt.Gox: 1015 EUR

Notice how in EUR you only made 15 EUR profit, while in USD you would have made 160 USD profit (~120 EUR).

The point is that Euro prices are lower than USD prices for Bitcoin, regardless of the exchange. This price difference is actually unrelated to BitStamp vs. Mt.Gox. The EUR prices on Mt.Gox are the same as the EUR prices on Bitstamp, but Bitstamp displays them converted to USD. That's why they are lower, because BitStamp USD is based on EUR Bitcoin prices.

The real explanation is that it's more difficult to buy Bitcoin in USD to Mt.Gox than to buy in EUR. The USD prices on Mt.Gox are indeed inflated because of the difficulty to get USD in and out.
98  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 10, 2013, 05:32:20 PM
The goal of SEPA was to improve cross border payments (lower the costs involved), there isn't a  "1 day transfer" in the spec ;-)

The reason SEPA from clowncar MtGox takes a while isn't because SEPA is slow, it's because MtGox takes their sweet time before actually doing the transfer.

Nope, it's because the Polish bank has a monthly withdrawal limit. If you're not in this month's queue, you have to wait until the next month and hope you're in that queue, or wait another month... This has to do with anti-money laundering laws - the bank is enforcing a withdrawal limit to kill money-laundering. Successfully, I presume, since so many here are complaining about it.

If you criminals would stop using Bitcoin, us honest Bitcoin businesses could actually USE Bitcoin.
99  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 10, 2013, 05:28:25 PM
I asked MtGox to send my money via a cheque(check) or bank draft to my mail address, they refused without giving a reason.
If the money is really there in their account, how could they be unable to write me a cheque? The only explanation is that they had stolen our money or the money is frozen or they are really a Ponzi.

"The only explanation"? Obviously Mt.Gox will not send paper cheques because of money laundering risk, or the cheque landing in the wrong hands, you know all that.
100  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: August 10, 2013, 05:22:29 PM
Mt.Gox Polish bank account for EUR/SEPA has monthly withdrawal limits. This means that your withdrawal enters a queue at the Polish bank, and you have to wait for it to be processed. This is not Mt.Gox' fault, this is the Polish bank's attitude.
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