Only bitcoiners consider bubble/P&D cycles as "natural behaviour and growth of a promising investment".
Only Trader cultists compare Bitcoin to stocks, penny or otherwise. I don't see why not. It's an asset that can be traded and is subject to supply/demand dynamics like any other asset. Every chart tells you a story, and the all time bitcoin chart and his bubble cycles tell you something ugly. |
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And that's ignoring the fundamentals, which are pretty bad by themselves...
Such as? -The fact that nobody is really interested in buying bitcoin to mainly use it as a currency aside from illicit goods, but more as a wild musical chairs speculation instrument. -Scalability issues (and their solution proposals bring other problems and controversy) -Mining centralisation, 51% attacks, the possibility of mining cartels. -Higher fees in the future. BTC has low fees now that miners are allowed to print money mine bitcoins like quazy, but fees will be higher as block reward is reduced. -slow transactions (you can't replace cash with something that can take half an hour or more to confirm, 0 confirmation transactions are not secure) -ridiculous volatility that fucks up uses for bitcoin as a currency. -the fact that merchants "accepting bitcoin" just create more selling pressure. Spending bitcoin = dumping bitcoin. And countless others. The idea behind the blockchain (a distributed ledger) has potential, sure, but the bitcoin blockchain and especially bitcoin THE CURRENCY are way too limited, in my opinion. Centralised finance works just fine and while it might use the underlying technology/idea behind the blockchain, it doesn't need a new artificially limited, volatile, pyramid scheme-like currency. For all we know: decentralised ledgers = the internet Any cryptocurrency like bitcoin = pets.com |
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Any uptrend you can see in bitcoin's price history looks exactly like a textbook penny stock pump&dump.
The 2011 bubble, the two 2013 ones.
They are bubbles, not healthy sustainable uptrends.
Bitcoin looks like a mega bubble that bursted that can be divided by 3 smaller bubbles/pump&dumps, the second one ended up pumping way higher than the first one, the third one ended up pumping way higher than the second one but now retraced completely returning to the second bubble levels.
Doesn't look like something anybody in his right mind should put money in, currently. And that's ignoring the fundamentals, which are pretty bad by themselves...
Only bitcoiners consider bubble/P&D cycles as "natural behaviour and growth of a promising investment".
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"Well the Bitcoin price seems to have solidified its position at the $230 mark and with Buy orders currently outweighing Sell orders it seems as if the demand for Bitcoin is heading the right way. With both demand and market prices are heading the right way boosting Bitcoin into further prosperity."
Who the hell are these dudes?
What is this "analysis"? lmao
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Inside a chinese bitcoin megamine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8kua5B5K3IThey say it was filmed in October. -What percentage of your total assets are in bitcoin?
-50% of my assets are in bitcoin, the rest is my cash.Ouch. |
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I was promised sub 200 coins by the retail gamblers traders on here. Bears trying to keep it below 230..  Patience, it takes time. I don't see bears trying to do anything, I see bulls trying really hard to push it.  |
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Well technically I have no idea what the price will do in a few months with such precision. That's not how anyone should trade. Any prediction like this should be made for fun. Little premise aside, here are my entries: (a) $274 (b) $86 (c) $190 My guess is that the price will not go anywhere up (significantly), it's probably gonna stay in a long consolidation for a month or more and then eventually there will be another big crash with a temporary bottom anywhere in the upper double digits. TX ID: e075efc04a2cc68b997560303c864329e496384fd32dca5a8d982daca5a8803c https://blockchain.info/tx/e075efc04a2cc68b997560303c864329e496384fd32dca5a8d982daca5a8803c |
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The analysis you cite is flawed for 3 reasons: 1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32. 2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200. 3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively. This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience. You can't compare the logarithmic trend line that was broken in 2011 with the one that was broken now. Sorry, but can't do.  1. Bitcoin was in its early days, a price of $2-32 was relatively low and was a easy target for penny stock pump&dumpers. Bitcoin at $2 (its marketcap) was easily pumpable. At $500-1000 or now, not at all. 2. The slope of the two trend lines is totally different. The 2011 trend line was way too optimistic and you couldn't really think that the price would have stayed above such trend line for long, whereas the current log trend line was a reasonable target and could have been easily followed assuming an exponential trend or a long term bull market. 3. The current log long term trend line that was broken is a multi-year support trend line (3 years) while the mtgox 2011 trend line was barely 1 year. 4. Bitcoin in 2011 was an obscure experiment, today is an asset known and watched by big players (even tho the majority of them are smart enough to stay clear from it apparently...), if nobody gave a fuck when price reached the trend line in 2015 after more than 1 year of bear market and it broke with a spectacular crash, it means you can wave goodbye to your long term BTCullish BTCeanies BTCitcoin scenarios. What a lot of people here are saying is that, since in 2011 price broke a log trend line but recovered with new bubbles after that anyway despite the fact that the 2011 chart looks like a textbook penny stock pump&dump, CURRENTLY ANYTHING IN BITCOIN CAN HAPPEN AND A NEW BULL MARKET COULD BE AROUND THE CORNER NO MATTER WHAT THE CURRENT CHART IS SHOWING US. Thinking this is just dumb in my opinion, don't you think? |
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See told you dumb bears. Hope every bear gets margin called for shorting.
This is just the beginning of the great rally of 2015.
Such rally, many reversals, very bottom, wow.  |
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anyone else notice that the recent bottom in price, 'so-called market cap (value of total coins issued) was also a test of the market cap at old ATH $266 price ~$2.5 bill.?
Seems like that will have made a very solid bottom (I'm calling it a top for the current crop of fiat currencies).
That must be it, we didn't retest the old ATH price but the old ATH marketcap, why can't i see it before ? Why can't i see obvious signs everywhere ? He's right, every trader or every buyer/seller is looking at that as a buy target instead as the ACTUAL previous ATH at $266. lol |
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Remember all but a select few on this thread are retail playing with peanuts and leverage.
All it takes is a few consecutive 'short all the rallies!' attempts ending in margin calls and the attitude in here will change on a dime.
The only thing that can bring a solid sustainable uptrend (and not just a temporary short squeeze that will end in tears soon after anyway) is a constant influx of new money flowing in exchanges. Big demand. As of now, there is none: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=934650.msg10358797#msg10358797 |
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My main question still remained unanswered:
If there is no guarantee that the bitcoin's price is gonna go up and allow the average Joe to profit from it, why should he buy bitcoin to use it as a currency?
Average Joe should use it for all of his online purchases through Amazon, Best Buy, Target, any retailer who sells gift cards through gyft.com. Why? Because Joe gets 3% discount for using bitcoin, that's why. And Joe can insulate himself completely from bitcoin price fluctuations by converting USD->BTC at the time of purchase at a place like coinbase. I had already answered to that: Why should the average Joe buy bitcoin and use it as a currency, if he is not interested in the use cases I just mentioned?
-because no fees? Volatility can fuck that over real good, so no point in saving 1-3% when you can lose 10-30% in a few days. You might argue that over time (IF bitcoin succeeds) volatility will gradually decrease. While I have doubts about that, in the long run bitcoin transaction fees will be higher anyway. I guess you know that miners “need to be paid” in order for bitcoin and the blockchain to exist, whether thanks to ridiculous inflation, or transaction fees. The blockchain is not gratis.
Peter Todd said it himself: “regarding fee economics, we’re fucked”.
For similar network security, we are either getting ridiculous monetary inflation or higher transaction fees. On top of that I seriously doubt the average joe cares about going through the pain in the ass to get involved with bitcoin only to save 1-3% (right now that high bitcoin monetary inflation allows it) for the stuff he has to buy online. If you convert BTC to USD to avoid volatility you pay fees for that too (less, but still). And if you buy bitcoin just to convert it to USD right after to avoid volatility and if you buy BTC only when you intend to spend it online that doesn't add any demand pushing the price up, since the merchants just dump the BTC anyway. In other words, the whole system as a currency is a mess, especially long term. |
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Discussion?
Why bother, when this thread roughly breaks down into three contingents: those who already agree with me, those who know I'm right but are too stubborn/overinvested to admit it, and finally those who, despite all the evidence to the contrary, continue insisting they're little teapots, short and stout?
We'll talk again when you've been around long enough to have seen at least one break of a previous ATH that was, until then, considered to be "never to be seen again". Wait, my mistake. Won't work. Hey there, future inactive account I think it's official, you have gone full retard. I have no idea how you manage to go from respected bitcointalk member posting good TA and insights/thoughts to being just another delusional cultist. Everybody can look at bitcoin's price history, and everybody can see that this thing screams "I am a bubble" from whatever side you are looking at it  The fact that the large scale pump&dump can be divided by cycles (pump&dumps themselves) that repeated 3 times in the past doesn't make it any less of a bubble As I said in the thread from the 2012 poster about submarine bulls and bears or something that was deleted few days ago: Is it too much for you to believe that some people simply were not convinced about bitcoin as an investment and they didn't wanna put money in something they believed was a bubble but the fact that bitcoin was pumped&dumped several times in the past doesn't mean they were "wrong"? |
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What kind of troll are you? This was already discussed yesterday for pages. If you wanna make it in here you need to step up your game. Wait, I've searched around and could not find it. The link I just posted is from today. Maybe you mean the news I posted about the married couple? lol that's has nothing to do with it |
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Beware the great and scary Newbie Trolls who apparently have the time to create an account and post on a topic that they believe isn't worth anyone's time lol.  Behold, the Death of Bitcoin!! Read the latest of 40+ Eulogies at: http://bitcoinobituaries.com/  Because of that page, bitcoin's price could go to $1 and we still couldn't say it's dead, amirite? |
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Any wife of a bitcoiner wants the D 
...IVORCE
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