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8161  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2015, 01:25:37 PM
do you really think that 1,8 Billion US$ is much in terms of financial markets?

I certainly don't, I think that number is much too low, by orders of magnitude, as a long term target.

That's why I think it is possible to reach as a relatively short term pump. Again, not saying it is likely, merely possible.

8162  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2015, 01:06:59 PM
0.1- 0.2 100x + increase. Wow, I'd say your pretty high on the hopium to be honest. I'd gladly take a 50btc bet on that.

When you propose a bet, you are maybe suggesting that I'm saying its more likely than not to happen over some particular timeframe, which I'm certainly not. I'm saying it is possible and that emission can turn out to be largely irrelevant, just as it was for LTC.

No I don't think it would happen exactly the same way as LTC. I expect if it happens it will play out in some similarly unexpected way.

I kind of disagree about there being fewer alts though. The enormous wave of clones crested in 2013 has basically dried up. There are only a few dozen alts any more for all practical purposes, and crowding and alt-fatague has largely closed the door to new ones. In fact many if not most of the alts that are still remotely viable now already existed then.
8163  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2015, 12:38:22 PM
People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

If ltc can go to 50 xmr can go to 100.

LTC went to $50 because BTC rallied to $1200. It was only a 5x rally in terms of ratio. If BTC had rallied to $200 and LTC 5x'd LTC would have only been worth ~$10. Why do people always ignore this.

No, LTC rallied by a factor of ~20 in ratio from early 2013 lows.

That's not really the point though. LTC has 4x the supply model of BTC or XMR (fairly close to each other). LTC at 0.05 BTC is more like XMR at 0.2 BTC. This for a coin that had basically nothing going for it in terms of either existing technology or visible development process. If you buy the possibility of a silver to btc's gold or hedging or whatever you want to call it (and I do buy these models somewhat) then 0.1-0.2 BTC or possibly a bit higher is achievable. With no BTC rally at all that's still $25-50, and a btc rally is very possible as well.

This is 100% not meant as "buy! buy! buy!" but merely to express that explosive possibilities exist, and changes to the dynamic of mining and the new investors that such an explosive event would surely bring may make the emission and dumping arguments largely irrelevant. The possibility of total failure also most certainly exists.
8164  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2015, 12:31:05 PM
Why to eat the cream while you can have a cake after the cake is finished?

Profit takers will be buying again later to get even more cake. Of course, it's possible that they'll never get a chance to buy cheaper (e.g. bitcoin profit takers who sold at $1).

Do not get me wrong, I am doing this also...
I have separate investment portfolio and trading portfolio.
Trading I am doing to get something to do which gives me also a little bit excitement. Investments I hold for long haul and am planning to sell if I need to purchase something bigger assuming the price goes as I wish.
Trading however is the gambling side of me and I am controlling it not to trade too much. If Monero goes viral, there are pretty high chance that at some point it is impossible to get Moneros even sub 100 usd levels and if my trading position is in other currencies, I have lost the opportunity cost of having the appreciating Moneros.

That's reasonable. But think about the current emission. What's $100 x 17,000? $1.7 million dollars. XMR can get to $100 and sit there for a few days. Can it stay there for any significant amount of time with every botnet and internet cafe owner on Earth dumping XMR every day? No.

I'm not sure about this. I would 100% agree if you had suggested a quick move to $5 or $10. But at $100 it is extremely widely reported and a huge popular phenomenon with million and millions of regular people mining it. 200 times the current hash rate is much bigger than botnets and maybe cafes. Many of those regular people are not going to dump small amount of "free" Monero they get from mining, and the excitement of that explosive rally would surely bring in new buyers. It could very well be self sustaining.



I just look to BTC as the example. But perhaps you're right. XMR's CPU mining could fundamentally change the game. But it's important for easy-to-use (double click to install) smart mining to be available to everyone for this to go viral on everyone's PC. In its current state, people won't invest the effort that it takes to install XMR, the mining software, and deal with it to make peanuts.

A move to 100 inspires a lot of user friendly packaging (work with a fairly low barrier to entry). We already have some fairly user friendly wallets especially if you include the open source wallets from other cryptonotes that could be pressed into service. Also botnets and double click to install are not the only possibilities. During gpu era pumps of btc ltc and doge many hobbiest gpu rigs and farms were built and a lot of coins accumulated. That would surely happen with a big xmr pump too
8165  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2015, 12:15:11 PM
People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

If ltc can go to 50 xmr can go to 100.
8166  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: March 06, 2015, 12:02:57 PM
Why to eat the cream while you can have a cake after the cake is finished?

Profit takers will be buying again later to get even more cake. Of course, it's possible that they'll never get a chance to buy cheaper (e.g. bitcoin profit takers who sold at $1).

Do not get me wrong, I am doing this also...
I have separate investment portfolio and trading portfolio.
Trading I am doing to get something to do which gives me also a little bit excitement. Investments I hold for long haul and am planning to sell if I need to purchase something bigger assuming the price goes as I wish.
Trading however is the gambling side of me and I am controlling it not to trade too much. If Monero goes viral, there are pretty high chance that at some point it is impossible to get Moneros even sub 100 usd levels and if my trading position is in other currencies, I have lost the opportunity cost of having the appreciating Moneros.

That's reasonable. But think about the current emission. What's $100 x 17,000? $1.7 million dollars. XMR can get to $100 and sit there for a few days. Can it stay there for any significant amount of time with every botnet and internet cafe owner on Earth dumping XMR every day? No.

I'm not sure about this. I would 100% agree if you had suggested a quick move to $5 or $10. But at $100 it is extremely widely reported and a huge popular phenomenon with million and millions of regular people mining it. 200 times the current hash rate is much bigger than botnets and maybe cafes. Many of those regular people are not going to dump small amount of "free" Monero they get from mining, and the excitement of that explosive rally would surely bring in new buyers. It could very well be self sustaining.

8167  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: March 06, 2015, 11:08:19 AM
I want to experiment a bit with Monero, I guess a webwallet at MyMonery.com is the easiest way to start.

In order not to lose any XMR, or become too dependent on specifically MyMonery.com, what should I do to keep access to my XMR, i.e. being able to spend my XMR elsewhere in case MyMonery.com goes down?

With Bitcoin, that would be the private key (or master seed in case of HD wallets). With this MyMonero.com web wallet, I now have:

1. Login key (13 words)
2. Account Address (95 chars, starting with '4')
3. View Key (256 bit hex)
4. Spend Key (256 bit hex)

Is that enough? I guess the Login Key is something specific for MyMonero.com, which deterministically derives the View and/or Spend Keys?

Could I import the View and Spend Keys in a different? (just like you can import private keys from one Bitcoin wallet into another)

Save them all (privately, except the Account Address, which is a public address you can give out if you want).

The code to import them into the standard command line wallet exists but isn't released yet. In the event that MyMonero became unavailable before the recovery support is added to the standard wallet (unlikely), someone (me if no one else) would make sure there is a patched version for recovery.

The roles of the view key and spend key are described in the whitepaper (which uses the terminology "tracking key" for view key). I think in the MyMonero implementation the view key is indeed derived from the spend key (which is derived from the login key), but this is not necessarily the case for all wallets. In theory they can be completely independent.

8168  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Superior Cryptonote Technology on: March 06, 2015, 06:24:25 AM
How about changing the thread title to: 1) be a bit less of an advertisement, and 2) indicate some relevance to Bitcoin since you are posting in the Bitcoin area.



"Cryptonote: More Bitcoin Than Bitcoin"

It's true.

One out of two is not bad.
8169  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Superior Cryptonote Technology on: March 06, 2015, 05:36:33 AM
How about changing the thread title to: 1) be a bit less of an advertisement, and 2) indicate some relevance to Bitcoin since you are posting in the Bitcoin area.

8170  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Cryptocoins-Dice.com | BTC XRP XMR XMG DOGE | Play Invest Leverage Faucet on: March 06, 2015, 02:02:09 AM
I'd like to share some thoughts

Say the bankroll is 10,000 XMR. I place 1,000 XMR, I have 10% of bankroll so if someone loses 50 XMR, I'm eligible to 5 XMR.

Now I leverage at 4:1 and the average leverage is 30:1. The bankrage is now 300,000 XMR and my own contribution is 4,000 XMR, which is 1,33%. So, if some wins 50 XMR, I only get 2,3%.

Conclusion: leverage does impact your APR. If you leverage less than the average, you'll get less interest (and less risk of losing). I tended to consider that casino offers a 50% APR, but leverage makes is harder to get this, since investors make it riskier. To stick with a 50% APR, you must match the average leverage. If you are surrounded by risk-takers (like it is the case for XMR), you end up with something not much less risky than trading.

Do I have something wrong here?

You are only somewhat correct. Your risk in the current system is determined by your leverage relative to average leverage. If everyone is levering high and so do you, you don't have much risk and your return is about the same as if the leverage feature didn't exist at all. The risk creeps in if you have your leverage set high and then other investors suddenly reduce there. You are then subject to being quickly wiped out.
8171  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: March 05, 2015, 08:34:09 PM
Starting Bid - 100m
The Grand Hotel 1st Company - 9 11 Strength Points - updated after promotions

     Current Bid
     100m - Master Noms

125M


140
8172  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: March 05, 2015, 12:14:25 PM
Smooth QC liquidation dividend

A special liquidation dividend of 1m per share has been distributed to the shareholders of Smooth QC.

Approximately 0.85m/share of assets remain to be liquidated and distributed, plus some ongoing rental income from the remaining office building.

8173  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: Crypto Kingdom assets auction land buildings characters gold/CKG on: March 05, 2015, 12:00:57 PM
62 lot17

SOLD
8174  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Service Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: Cryptocoins-Dice.com | BTC XRP XMR XMG DOGE | Play Invest Leverage Faucet on: March 05, 2015, 08:37:21 AM
Hi smooth,

you're asking to me for posting private details about a player. Even in that circumstance, I'll not break my privacy politic.

No I'm not, I'm asking for details about when leverage was changed and by what amount, not by whom.

Without this information it is quite impossible for investors to ever audit the calculation of their return. You've turned the site, for investors, into an opaque web casino, with in effect no auditable, verifiable or provable outcomes.

Quote
Also, what's your guarantee that I'll not send you faked logs ? Nothing.

Correct, but it is more and more work for a dishonest site to continually release fake but credible, logs, perhaps to the point of impracticality. Whereas for an honest site, releasing credible logs is incredibly easy, because they are the actual logs. See where I'm going with this?

Quote
And I'll be asked for more and more stuff. This is endless.

No, you are only being asked for enough information so that investors can view and audit how their returns were calculated, as opposed to it being a complete black box, which is currently the case. You are not being asked for "more and more stuff"

Quote
By the way, even the last logs I sent wasn't even monitored and compared with the site's bets, there is a 1M bet in it, nobody checked.

Please explain. You sent fake logs? Or am I misunderstanding something?

Whether anyone checks or not isn't really the point. People can check and that keeps sites honest because sooner or later someone will check and a dishonest site will get caught.

I'm not accusing you of being a dishonest site. I'm asking for information that lets people check on your honesty, if they chose to do so, rather than taking your word for it.

8175  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: March 05, 2015, 07:20:24 AM
Is there anyway i can make more xmr with this game? Like deposit in a fund and receive interest in xmr after some months

The simplest is bank deposits, if the bank is accepting them (seems the bank has plenty of cash at the moment).

Another option is Smooth Investment Fund (listed on the CORP tab of the character DB), which offers no guarantees but seeks to invest in the best performing assets in the game. So far it has a good return, but that proves nothing.

Other options:

1. Under the current rules, a well-optimized character will earn a daily passive profit from the labor pool.

2. You could buy CKG, which pays dividends from the town surplus.
8176  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: March 05, 2015, 05:51:12 AM


No way! That would be incredible. That would bring this project from secure and private to legit science fiction level anonymous. You could have hundreds or even thousands mixin partners. Correct me if im wrong but wouldn't this be the cypherpunk holy grail? Is it really within our grasp and just need "review"?

Would there be a decrease in mix-in costs as the available mix-in levels increased?

It means the blue line instead of the green line



Context: http://sites.tufts.edu/comp15/
8177  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypto Kingdom - 1991 Retro Virtual World(City) on: March 05, 2015, 04:50:20 AM
University update

The University has reached several milestones as we near the conclusion of the ancient era.

First, we most emphatically applaud and acknowledge the recent 10m and 100m donations from Master noms the Prince of Oz, and of course once again the extremely generation donations from The Marquess of Soul (henceforth honored by naming the main building the "Marquess of Soul Center") and Duke of New Liberty (henceforth honored by the naming the main courtyard the "Duke of New Liberty Courtyard") and many other generous donations during the ancient era.

In these last years we announce the appointment of the Prince of North Face as our new Provost. The Provost has successfully established the department of Learning and Research which includes staff donated by the Earl of Cryptoluna, on loan from Smooth QC, and acquired on the open market using rental income from our spacious main building. This department is making significant progress in the development of the Kingdom's science and culture, and we expect to grow much larger in coming years. We welcome any and all donations or loans of mid-to-high-level NPC characters.

Financially, the conclusion of the ancient era has been a success for the University. We have built both the Military Science and Main Buildings at a cost of over 2500m. Loans taken out to bridge the gap between donations and building costs have been almost entirely repaid, with just 100m now needed to be fully debt-free. In addition, the University holds 2050 CKG and an investment portfolio of over 700m in support of our research, education and cultural mission. We look forward to this solid financial footing serving as a springboard for further expansion of both facilities and activities in the future.

Onward!

The Chancellor
Earl of Cryptoluna
8178  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 05, 2015, 02:58:01 AM
Quote
True, but if people prefer to own ETFs rather than own Bitcoins then that is a fault of Bitcoin, not of the users. The technology isn't meeting the needs of the target market.


The underlying root of why ETFs exist is greed. It is not Bitcoin's fault.

People can be (and many are) just as greedy with Bitcoin.

The reason ETFs (will) exist is they are easier (in almost every way), safer (in some ways), and more compatible with the existing system of laws and regulations (especially for mid-market professional investors) while offering similar upside.


Easier, sure, because that this the way to lure in the suckers. If you don't hold it. You don't own it.

ETFs are a scam. All derivatives are a scam. When they crash, and they will, they will bring the global economy to its knees unlike anything we have ever seen. Those that have prepared will prosper. 2008 was a test run. There will be no bailing out this next shit storm. TPTBs only recourse will be to distract us with a global war.

I give it about 6 years.

Stay away.

I'm not recommending them, and you will note the bolded phrase above was put there for a reason. I'm just observing things as they are.
8179  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: March 05, 2015, 01:45:37 AM

The history of people like Bobsurplus, Stealthcoin, the BCN shilltrolls, etc. who show up here to spam their own scam or troll XMR tends not to work out well for them ultimately. Welcome to that peer group.
8180  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: March 05, 2015, 12:04:21 AM
Quote
True, but if people prefer to own ETFs rather than own Bitcoins then that is a fault of Bitcoin, not of the users. The technology isn't meeting the needs of the target market.


The underlying root of why ETFs exist is greed. It is not Bitcoin's fault.

People can be (and many are) just as greedy with Bitcoin.

The reason ETFs (will) exist is they are easier (in almost every way), safer (in some ways), and more compatible with the existing system of laws and regulations (especially for mid-market professional investors) while offering similar upside.
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