[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

Why to eat the cream while you can have a cake after the cake is finished?

Profit takers will be buying again later to get even more cake. Of course, it's possible that they'll never get a chance to buy cheaper (e.g. bitcoin profit takers who sold at $1).

Do not get me wrong, I am doing this also...
I have separate investment portfolio and trading portfolio.
Trading I am doing to get something to do which gives me also a little bit excitement. Investments I hold for long haul and am planning to sell if I need to purchase something bigger assuming the price goes as I wish.
Trading however is the gambling side of me and I am controlling it not to trade too much. If Monero goes viral, there are pretty high chance that at some point it is impossible to get Moneros even sub 100 usd levels and if my trading position is in other currencies, I have lost the opportunity cost of having the appreciating Moneros.

[jehst]

Why to eat the cream while you can have a cake after the cake is finished?

Profit takers will be buying again later to get even more cake. Of course, it's possible that they'll never get a chance to buy cheaper (e.g. bitcoin profit takers who sold at $1).

Do not get me wrong, I am doing this also...
I have separate investment portfolio and trading portfolio.
Trading I am doing to get something to do which gives me also a little bit excitement. Investments I hold for long haul and am planning to sell if I need to purchase something bigger assuming the price goes as I wish.
Trading however is the gambling side of me and I am controlling it not to trade too much. If Monero goes viral, there are pretty high chance that at some point it is impossible to get Moneros even sub 100 usd levels and if my trading position is in other currencies, I have lost the opportunity cost of having the appreciating Moneros.

That's reasonable. But think about the current emission. What's $100 x 17,000? $1.7 million dollars. XMR can get to $100 and sit there for a few days. Can it stay there for any significant amount of time with every botnet and internet cafe owner on Earth dumping XMR every day? No. That's why it's the responsibility of large XMR holders to calm these rallies down before they get out of control by taking profits and then adding buy support at lower levels to "catch" the crashes. All while maintaining a core position.

Can XMR spike to .0027 to .0033 in the near future? Yes, easily. But XMR was at .001 a few weeks ago. So you should expect fibonacci retracements.

[GTO911]

Anybody has emission timeline link?

[smooth]

Why to eat the cream while you can have a cake after the cake is finished?

Profit takers will be buying again later to get even more cake. Of course, it's possible that they'll never get a chance to buy cheaper (e.g. bitcoin profit takers who sold at $1).

Do not get me wrong, I am doing this also...
I have separate investment portfolio and trading portfolio.
Trading I am doing to get something to do which gives me also a little bit excitement. Investments I hold for long haul and am planning to sell if I need to purchase something bigger assuming the price goes as I wish.
Trading however is the gambling side of me and I am controlling it not to trade too much. If Monero goes viral, there are pretty high chance that at some point it is impossible to get Moneros even sub 100 usd levels and if my trading position is in other currencies, I have lost the opportunity cost of having the appreciating Moneros.

That's reasonable. But think about the current emission. What's $100 x 17,000? $1.7 million dollars. XMR can get to $100 and sit there for a few days. Can it stay there for any significant amount of time with every botnet and internet cafe owner on Earth dumping XMR every day? No.

I'm not sure about this. I would 100% agree if you had suggested a quick move to $5 or $10. But at $100 it is extremely widely reported and a huge popular phenomenon with million and millions of regular people mining it. 200 times the current hash rate is much bigger than botnets and maybe cafes. Many of those regular people are not going to dump small amount of "free" Monero they get from mining, and the excitement of that explosive rally would surely bring in new buyers. It could very well be self sustaining.

[arogatos]

given that we live in a capitalist society, it's only logical that everyone given the opportunity, is going to try making money out of money. personally i think it's rather unethical to make money out of speculation in markets. thats because everytime you make profit in that manner, you're just taking the money from others and vice versa.

having that said, i must admit that for me monero was great opportunity to make another 65% profit...  

for me 65% was the goal for now. i'm quite confident that there will be a dump soon, so i will enter the market after retracement.

[dreamspark]

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

[jehst]

Why to eat the cream while you can have a cake after the cake is finished?

Profit takers will be buying again later to get even more cake. Of course, it's possible that they'll never get a chance to buy cheaper (e.g. bitcoin profit takers who sold at $1).

Do not get me wrong, I am doing this also...
I have separate investment portfolio and trading portfolio.
Trading I am doing to get something to do which gives me also a little bit excitement. Investments I hold for long haul and am planning to sell if I need to purchase something bigger assuming the price goes as I wish.
Trading however is the gambling side of me and I am controlling it not to trade too much. If Monero goes viral, there are pretty high chance that at some point it is impossible to get Moneros even sub 100 usd levels and if my trading position is in other currencies, I have lost the opportunity cost of having the appreciating Moneros.

That's reasonable. But think about the current emission. What's $100 x 17,000? $1.7 million dollars. XMR can get to $100 and sit there for a few days. Can it stay there for any significant amount of time with every botnet and internet cafe owner on Earth dumping XMR every day? No.

I'm not sure about this. I would 100% agree if you had suggested a quick move to $5 or $10. But at $100 it is extremely widely reported and a huge popular phenomenon with million and millions of regular people mining it. 200 times the current hash rate is much bigger than botnets and maybe cafes. Many of those regular people are not going to dump small amount of "free" Monero they get from mining, and the excitement of that explosive rally would surely bring in new buyers. It could very well be self sustaining.

I just look to BTC as the example. But perhaps you're right. XMR's CPU mining could fundamentally change the game. But it's important for easy-to-use (double click to install) smart mining to be available to everyone for this to go viral on everyone's PC. In its current state, people won't invest the effort that it takes to install XMR, the mining software, and deal with it to make peanuts.

[darlidada]

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

What shall we realistically aim for?

[smooth]

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

If ltc can go to 50 xmr can go to 100.

[jehst]

Anybody has emission timeline link?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.msg8108185#msg8108185

Calculated a long time ago so it may be off, but not terribly off.

[dreamspark]

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

If ltc can go to 50 xmr can go to 100.

LTC went to $50 because BTC rallied to $1200. It was only a 5x rally in terms of ratio. If BTC had rallied to $200 and LTC 5x'd LTC would have only been worth ~$10. Why do people always ignore this.

[rpietila]

Anybody has emission timeline link?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.msg8108185#msg8108185

Calculated a long time ago so it may be off, but not terribly off.

The emission adjusts so often that it is off by less than 24 hours, so the daily numbers are correct for all intents and purposes.

[smooth]

Why to eat the cream while you can have a cake after the cake is finished?

Profit takers will be buying again later to get even more cake. Of course, it's possible that they'll never get a chance to buy cheaper (e.g. bitcoin profit takers who sold at $1).

Do not get me wrong, I am doing this also...
I have separate investment portfolio and trading portfolio.
Trading I am doing to get something to do which gives me also a little bit excitement. Investments I hold for long haul and am planning to sell if I need to purchase something bigger assuming the price goes as I wish.
Trading however is the gambling side of me and I am controlling it not to trade too much. If Monero goes viral, there are pretty high chance that at some point it is impossible to get Moneros even sub 100 usd levels and if my trading position is in other currencies, I have lost the opportunity cost of having the appreciating Moneros.

That's reasonable. But think about the current emission. What's $100 x 17,000? $1.7 million dollars. XMR can get to $100 and sit there for a few days. Can it stay there for any significant amount of time with every botnet and internet cafe owner on Earth dumping XMR every day? No.

I'm not sure about this. I would 100% agree if you had suggested a quick move to $5 or $10. But at $100 it is extremely widely reported and a huge popular phenomenon with million and millions of regular people mining it. 200 times the current hash rate is much bigger than botnets and maybe cafes. Many of those regular people are not going to dump small amount of "free" Monero they get from mining, and the excitement of that explosive rally would surely bring in new buyers. It could very well be self sustaining.

I just look to BTC as the example. But perhaps you're right. XMR's CPU mining could fundamentally change the game. But it's important for easy-to-use (double click to install) smart mining to be available to everyone for this to go viral on everyone's PC. In its current state, people won't invest the effort that it takes to install XMR, the mining software, and deal with it to make peanuts.

A move to 100 inspires a lot of user friendly packaging (work with a fairly low barrier to entry). We already have some fairly user friendly wallets especially if you include the open source wallets from other cryptonotes that could be pressed into service. Also botnets and double click to install are not the only possibilities. During gpu era pumps of btc ltc and doge many hobbiest gpu rigs and farms were built and a lot of coins accumulated. That would surely happen with a big xmr pump too

[GTO911]

Looking at the emission i am very sure, we will not pass 20 $ this year.

Also looking at the development timeline for that value

[smooth]

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

If ltc can go to 50 xmr can go to 100.

LTC went to $50 because BTC rallied to $1200. It was only a 5x rally in terms of ratio. If BTC had rallied to $200 and LTC 5x'd LTC would have only been worth ~$10. Why do people always ignore this.

No, LTC rallied by a factor of ~20 in ratio from early 2013 lows.

That's not really the point though. LTC has 4x the supply model of BTC or XMR (fairly close to each other). LTC at 0.05 BTC is more like XMR at 0.2 BTC. This for a coin that had basically nothing going for it in terms of either existing technology or visible development process. If you buy the possibility of a silver to btc's gold or hedging or whatever you want to call it (and I do buy these models somewhat) then 0.1-0.2 BTC or possibly a bit higher is achievable. With no BTC rally at all that's still $25-50, and a btc rally is very possible as well.

This is 100% not meant as "buy! buy! buy!" but merely to express that explosive possibilities exist, and changes to the dynamic of mining and the new investors that such an explosive event would surely bring may make the emission and dumping arguments largely irrelevant. The possibility of total failure also most certainly exists.

[darlidada]

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

If ltc can go to 50 xmr can go to 100.

LTC went to $50 because BTC rallied to $1200. It was only a 5x rally in terms of ratio. If BTC had rallied to $200 and LTC 5x'd LTC would have only been worth ~$10. Why do people always ignore this.

No, LTC rallied by a factor of ~20 in ratio from early 2013 lows.

That's not really the point though. LTC has 4x the supply model of BTC or XMR (fairly close to each other). LTC at 0.05 BTC is more like XMR at 0.2 BTC. This for a coin that had basically nothing going for it in terms of either existing technology or visible development process. If you buy the possibility of a silver to btc's gold or hedging or whatever you want to call it (and I do buy these models somewhat) then 0.1-0.2 BTC or possibly a bit higher is achievable. With no BTC rally at all that's still $25-50, and a btc rally is very possible as well.

This is 100% not meant as "buy! buy! buy!" but merely to express that explosive possibilities exist, and changes to the dynamic of mining and the new investors that such an explosive event would surely bring may make the emission and dumping arguments largely irrelevant. The possibility of total failure also most certainly exists.

i read this and all my brain hears is BUY BUY BUY !!!

[wpalczynski]

Are you saying you don't think BTC will break its ATH of 1200 in the future?

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

If ltc can go to 50 xmr can go to 100.

LTC went to $50 because BTC rallied to $1200. It was only a 5x rally in terms of ratio. If BTC had rallied to $200 and LTC 5x'd LTC would have only been worth ~$10. Why do people always ignore this.

[dreamspark]

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

If ltc can go to 50 xmr can go to 100.

LTC went to $50 because BTC rallied to $1200. It was only a 5x rally in terms of ratio. If BTC had rallied to $200 and LTC 5x'd LTC would have only been worth ~$10. Why do people always ignore this.

No, LTC rallied by a factor of ~20 in ratio from early 2013 lows.

That's not really the point though. LTC has 4x the supply model of BTC or XMR (fairly close to each other). LTC at 0.05 BTC is more like XMR at 0.2 BTC. This for a coin that had basically nothing going for it in terms of either existing technology or visible development process. If you buy the possibility of a silver to btc's gold or hedging or whatever you want to call it (and I do buy these models somewhat) then 0.1-0.2 BTC or possibly a bit higher is achievable. With no BTC rally at all that's still $25-50, and a btc rally is very possible as well.

This is 100% not meant as "buy! buy! buy!" but merely to express that explosive possibilities exist, and changes to the dynamic of mining and the new investors that such an explosive event would surely bring may make the emission and dumping arguments largely irrelevant. The possibility of total failure also most certainly exists.

There are so many more arguments against that though. It didn't really need anything going for it at the time there were far less alts for example (this is a huge factor), the Chinese ate LTC up. All the BTC train missers got on LTC.  I'm not saying XMR will never get to $100 in the long long term future but categorically only with a huge bump in BTC price.

0.1- 0.2 100x + increase. Wow, I'd say your pretty high on the hopium to be honest. I'd gladly take a 50btc bet on that.

(Don't get me wrong 0.1-0.2 buys me my island so by all means please go there  )

[smooth]

0.1- 0.2 100x + increase. Wow, I'd say your pretty high on the hopium to be honest. I'd gladly take a 50btc bet on that.

When you propose a bet, you are maybe suggesting that I'm saying its more likely than not to happen over some particular timeframe, which I'm certainly not. I'm saying it is possible and that emission can turn out to be largely irrelevant, just as it was for LTC.

No I don't think it would happen exactly the same way as LTC. I expect if it happens it will play out in some similarly unexpected way.

I kind of disagree about there being fewer alts though. The enormous wave of clones crested in 2013 has basically dried up. There are only a few dozen alts any more for all practical purposes, and crowding and alt-fatague has largely closed the door to new ones. In fact many if not most of the alts that are still remotely viable now already existed then.

[TrueCryptonaire]

People talking about $10 and $100 XMR. Come on be reasonable. Don't be one of those people who gets manipulated into positions by hopium and bull dreams.

What shall we realistically aim for?

In my opinion I have pretty realistic view on Monero's price development. I gave it out on December so you can check this from my previous posts.

For those of you who are lazy, here is the recap of my predictions:

2015: 10 usd
2016: 100 usd
2017: 1000 usd
2018: 10 000 usd
2019: 100 000 usd
2020: Moon