The analysis you cite is flawed for 2 reasons: 1. It conveniently ignores the first bubble to $32. 2. If that analysis was performed in early 2012, it would totally miss the bubble to $266 and $1200. 3. During the bubbles, bitcoin was neither linear nor exponential. It was parabolic. But in very long term, the exponential model still gives the best fit. The R-square for linear and exponential model are 0.537 and 0.888 respectively. This thread is for people with long-term interest in bitcoin. Not for day traders. By long-term I mean at least 2 years of patience. i am not sure why the numerical coefficient in your formula keeps changing. this change means that you simply adjust the formula to better fit the data-am I correct or is this change automatic? |
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Interesting conversation. Several points: 1. it does not matter how high bitcoin will go. YOU would not be able to resist selling basically all of it at 10X appreciation to the price you bought it. It is impossible for 99% of investors to resist selling at ten-bagger, so maybe there will be few people like this, but just a few individuals. 2. in all these predictions, i could never understood what you all think the current financial elite would do: a. do you think that they will stay idly by and let a "new" elite get rich? b. if not, will they try to change the team-i don't think so, they are quite satisfied with the status quo. c. will they try to prevent this new future from happening-I am afraid so-just look at UK making lots of moves against bitcoin. 3. we might not like to be super rich with bitcoins for multiple reasons-safety is one, for example. depends on if it takes of or not.
If we assume 1% of the world wants bitcoins at some point in the future (and we divide it evenly among those people) that would mean each person would only have 0.295 bitcoin.
So by that logic, even having 1 bitcoin would be plenty.
At any rate, 10 bitcoin should probably be more than enough to retire on if you are not planning to retire for the next 10 years or so.
21000000/7000000000=0.003, no? So 3 mBTC each. since it will take 140 years to mine all 21 mil btc yes, but ~94% of all bitcoins will be already issued (mined) by 2024, a mere nine years from now. |
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I think they all expire 2/4, and you are right 370 isn't.
they probably have to hold the price so S6 would not look overpriced at 3-4th and $1100-1300. |
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@suchmoon @Biodom
Thanks! I connected the 2 PCIe cables, up to now it seems to work great. I'll do a temperature check tomorrow.
Now I have to make this fanmod before the wife starts to beat me up.... :p
i did not dare to run it at default for more than 12 hr... Everyone seem to be particularly affected by the S5 default fan sound. You want to stay as far away as possible. what's your mod? |
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SOLD BOTH S5 and both Corsirs
In addition-I have two unopened Corsair CX750M PSU (each can run S5 without any problem-I am running a couple of S5 on other two CX750M for about a month already).
Shipping to locations other than US is extra. Total savings are ~$17 savings on S5 plus $5+tax savings on each PSU.
Still for sale any of the following choices:
1. one S5 plus two Corsair CX750M for $550 (in BTC), shipped to US
2. one S5 plus one Corsair CX750 for $475, shipped to US
3. one S5, shipped to US, $400
1. both CX750M, $150, shipped to US
2. each CX750M, $75, shipped to US
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Sorry for the noob question: I'm setting up my freshly arrived S5. Power supply is Corsair rm750. I keep reading everywhere ( http://www.enthusiastpc.net/articles/00002/3.aspx) that maximum power output is 75W for 6pin connectors and 150W for 8 pin connectors. How can the S5 draw ~500W using 4x6PCIe providing 75W each? And can I power it with 2 cables of the type 1x8PCIe -> 2x6PCIe? Thanks PCI-E specs are quite conservative and most miner vendors are pushing the limits here. Up to 200W per PCI-E cable should be ok as long as the PSU and the cables are good quality and the connections are solid - most failures I've seen are caused by poor contact at the PCI-E socket on the miner or at the modular socket on the PSU. Don't use 8-to-6 splitters, get a 2xMolex to 6-pin PCI-E instead and put that on two separate Molex cables. RM750 and CX750 both come with two pcie cables that are branched-perfectly fine to use for regular speed at total 590W. I checked connectors and cables temperature with a laser probe and they never exceeded 45C You will just confuse the OP. |
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it appears that buying in $170-220 area was OK as long as the overall trend persists. However, we will be able to see that only after the fact.
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I replaced the fan with below and added a 2nd (push / pull) in the rear. Cools fine and a lot quieter than stock fan configuration. Fan comes with extra long connector for 3 or 4 prong. Plugs right up and reads and controls as 2nd. fan.
>snip images<
cool. I thought that silverstone 140 mmm does not fit and needs to be cut. Did it fit well without any cutting of shroud both in front and back? |
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whats the price for it, shipped to M6K2Z1 Toronto, Canada?
since a new one is $400 in a 3-pack, I would expect this unit to cost $300 shipped - is that reasonable?
I can do $275 in BTC, but you pay for the shipping label or compensate for it (I looked around and cheapest would be if you declare $1 value for package) with similar price for FEDEX international ground and UPS standard, but UPS standard will come a bit earlier. Overall price will be slightly above $300 without discounts or coupons. |
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whats the price for it, shipped to M6K2Z1 Toronto, Canada?
since a new one is $400 in a 3-pack, I would expect this unit to cost $300 shipped - is that reasonable?
Do you have a shipping discount or coupon? PMed |
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Korbman: What an incredibly informative and thoughtful post. I appreciate it! I'd already started factoring quite a bit of that, so another "set of eyes" on this is appreciated.
I'm always happy to help where I can, and I'm glad you found my post informative. Mining on a larger scale tends to be vastly more complex than most people realize, and while I'm sure you know that, I still try to point out some "things to think about" for anyone else reading the forums. I'd come up with similar numbers built using an excel sheet that I've been hobbling together over the last week. I'm used to dealing with headcounts, salaries, project scopes and timelines....getting down and dirty with the most basic of economics is a refreshing change.
Not sure if you've started doing this yet, but what I've always tried to do is to simplify *everything* down to what it costs per kWh (employee hourly rates, space rental, cooling...really any reoccurring expense) and add it to your electricity costs. The idea being to create an all encompassing expense, an example being $0.08 per kWh ($0.03 to cover monthly rent, monitoring, and maintenance + $0.05 for the raw electrical rate). I've found this usually helps when making difficulty and revenue predictions (among other things). Other than that, my biggest question comes down to depreciation...and this is something I'm also asking the other experienced miners / veterans (both to help with my models and with CptTripps' setup). Is there a standard depreciation method you use for your hardware, or do you typically just run the equipment until it's no longer valued at anything (ending its useful life)? it's very difficult to figure out depreciation because it depends on the BTC price in $$, euro, etc.. Example: even the smallest piece of gear increased in price 3-10 fold in December of 2013 because BTC priced moved from $130 to $1200 in a space of 2-3 months. |
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For sale SP20 that was used for about a week.
$285 $300 plus shipping (paid in BTC)
One out of four loops does not hash, so it is hashing at 3/4 of regular machine and uses 3/4 of power.
SPT cannot fix it by software adjustments.
I can ship it anywhere as long as you pay for shipping.
Naturally, the easiest is to sell to someone in US because shipping by ground is cheap (~$15).
I run it underclocked at 930-935 GH/553W (at the wall)/fan~25, but it can run at 1150-1200GH if you use more power (I like to run mine underclocked).
If you are technically adept, you might be able to fix the fourth loop (maybe there is a cable disconnect), but I make no guarantees and sell it as 3/4 of Sp20.
bumping with price adjustment How much would it cost to ship to Europe (France)? I guess it won't worth it compared to a new one direct from Spondoolies  yeah, it cost like $196 FEDEX international economy from US to France, so total would be 285+196=$481. I have no idea why rates are so large as to why it cost $15 in US, but $196 overseas. |
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For sale SP20 that was used for about a week.
$285 $300 plus shipping (paid in BTC)
One out of four loops does not hash, so it is hashing at 3/4 of regular machine and uses 3/4 of power.
SPT cannot fix it by software adjustments.
I can ship it anywhere as long as you pay for shipping.
Naturally, the easiest is to sell to someone in US because shipping by ground is cheap (~$15).
I run it underclocked at 930-935 GH/553W (at the wall)/fan~25, but it can run at 1150-1200GH if you use more power (I like to run mine underclocked).
If you are technically adept, you might be able to fix the fourth loop (maybe there is a cable disconnect), but I make no guarantees and sell it as 3/4 of Sp20.
bumping with price adjustment |
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...
honestly, i really don't get why people are focusing on 3600 number so much. Yes, someone has to buy these coins, but it is a puny number (The equivalent of $828K). Are you saying that 828K selling is depressing the bitcoin price? If so, bitcoin is punier than I thought. In addition, a measly $2K investment by 360 people in 7bil earth will devour these few coins. ...
It's either a lot or a little, but it's still 12%. 12% of total coins in existence had to be bought up in 2014 to keep the price steady. correct, but the $$ numbers are tiny right now, 2014 is long gone (it was more like $3-4 mil a year ago). If the number of users is increasing, such small flows are not a problem. My point is that it was most likely not these tiny flows, but rather much larger flows form earlier adopters. EDIT: I see that OP provided an argument that this is not the case. I make no bullish or bearish argument here. In my opinion, sometimes markets represent just some random walk on trend and, as we know, the longer any trend continues, the more likely it will continue in the immediate future (this is true). Witness priceline decrease to $6 (split adjusted) from $900 in 1999-2000 and then back to above $1000, or Akamai from $300 to below $1, back to $58. Yeah, i can rationalize this ad hoc, but could you predict $1 when it was at $300 and $60 when it was $1-probably not. If I could, i would have been probably close to a billionaire right now. If someone suggested that the sharp decline in bitcoin price has made its future more uncertain, I would probably agree with this argument. |
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Its very simple. The price is depressed by 3600 new coins per day. And no it doesn't matter that exchanges are doing tens of thousands of trades per day -- most are likely the same coins passed between the same traders. It doesn't matter that miners often hold. If they weren't holding mined coins they would have been buyers.
Creating the next wave will be actual use or fear-driven diversification.
By actual use I don't mean another exchange. I mean remittance, changetip, to a lesser degree credit card replacement (since the benefits are minimal, esp if you don't already hold BTC), and most importantly new uses.
Diversification is not happening much now because most people are momentum buyers and central banks are mostly keeping a lid on things. So there is less reason to diversify out of fiat currencies, and BTC is not perceived as such a great choice even if you wanted to.
This could change if we have a few months stability or a gradual rise. But again, this will be hard at 3600 coin inflation per day.
Fuck yes. Finally a post worth reading again in all this troll garbage. (Yours is worth reading as well, OP, but you know that.) There's momentum overshoot, to the up and downside, just like in any market. Then there's the Bitcoin typical iliquidity of the very market that determines "the price", mainly because of two reasons: hoarding, and the unusually high counterparty risk with our existing exchanges. Then there's quite a bit of an effect of savvy traders' driving the market in this direction or that (within certain limits). And then there's whatever adoption as a medium of exchange adds a certain minimum valuation through usage. But at the end, it's mostly about the inflation. ("Boooh. Don't call it that! Bitcoin is sound money!") Whatever price emerges at the end of the day, after all the above factors are included, times 3600 has to be put up by someone. (Actually, quite a bit more than 3600 lately because of the lagging difficulty adjustment. Closer to 4100 per day last year.) So, we wait for 2017. Or maybe not. As the wise oracle user who's been absent for a long time now pointed out, there's an interesting dynamic about how the market prices in the decline in the growth of the monetary base. Some anticipation effect of the reward reduction is likely to click at some point with a continued decline in price (which is itself reducing the effect of the 3600 coins per day, all else equal), most likely generating a rather sharp effect on price. I consider 2017 a hard limit for our bear market, but probably the 'click' will take place before. honestly, i really don't get why people are focusing on 3600 number so much. Yes, someone has to buy these coins, but it is a puny number (The equivalent of $828K). Are you saying that 828K selling is depressing the bitcoin price? If so, bitcoin is punier than I thought. In addition, a measly $2K investment by 360 people on earth populated by 7 billion will devour these few coins. I think that much stronger flows are probably initial (early) BTC wallets selling. These can really provide a downside. |
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i don't even see 3-4 if they get 0.2GH/w and have cooling, more like one, two at most. they will become like old ATT for a while and the nature of bitcoin will change. Instead of miners, they will produce something like "transaction centers", where they will/might rent capability to others, mostly companies. Too bad that i still have some btc, which are underwater. |
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I have my pools configured to run westhash/nicehash when they go over 0.0199 per the password field, but it doesn't appear that they're switching. Westhash is currently at 0.025 right now, is there something else that's required to get that to work properly? I configured the pools and restarted the miner, but it still shows cgminer 4.7.0, and I think it needs to be running 4.8.0 for this to work, right?
I'm running the latest test firmware from SP, 2.6.9
strange...I have set nicehash at 0.015 and I see that it was active earlier today, but not right now because it is at 0.0145 currently all on 2.6.9 |
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A perfect scenario for this to unfold would be for price to slightly overshoot the previous bottom (I assume that it was $152 or about), say to 151.99 or $149.99.
Something similar happened in 2011 when everybody were horrified that BTC breached $2 and thought that it will retest at least $1.
In fact, however, it only breached $2 to $1.98 or so, then went to $1150.
My prediction would be that if this was, indeed, the bottom, we might revisit it with a slight intraday overshot to $149.99-151.99.
Or perhaps just when everyone is convinced that bitcoin will make a new low or revisit a previous low, it just starts slowly creeping up. Slowly, inch by inch. Catching all the bears by surprise. Just like it did before. yes, of course, there is no investment law that lows have to be revisited. |
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A perfect scenario for this to unfold would be for price to slightly overshoot the previous bottom (I assume that it was $152 or about), say to 151.99 or $149.99.
Something similar happened in 2011 when everybody were horrified that BTC breached $2 and thought that it will retest at least $1.
In fact, however, it only breached $2 to $1.98 or so, then went to $1150.
My prediction would be that if this was, indeed, the bottom, we might revisit it with a slight intraday overshot to $149.99-151.99.
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