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8461  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: 10 months on... About the Bytecoin (BCN) ninjamine on: January 26, 2015, 12:13:13 PM
Also, isn't it true that if Bytecoin was actually mined since 2012, that only about 10 computers were mining it?

Yes, or less than ten for high end desktop/servers, possibly far less than 10. Fluffypony showed that 10 servers could mine the whole thing in three months. Spread that out over two years and its just one or two servers. A reasonable hash rate for a desktop is 200-300 H/s so that's 4-5 computers. With a mix of smaller computers it might be as much as 10.

So these alleged "mining teams" all over the world had a grand total of <10 computers?

Sorry but no.

The story is a complete fabrication.
8462  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: 10 months on... About the Bytecoin (BCN) ninjamine on: January 26, 2015, 11:44:09 AM
You base a date on someones account as a symbol of knowledge or trust?

I think you misinterpret slightly. The real issue is that there is no basis for trust. Nobody knows the guy, he can't prove anything he has said. Scammers and liars will always claim to not be scammers and liars so that means nothing. To have any value, you need verifiable sources to authenticate these types of claims, preferably multiple ones that can be cross checked for discrepancies and contradictions. Instead there are none at all.

It's a shame though, that many people are naturally trusting and if some anonymous account on a forum says that he mined bytecoin in 2012, a few people will probably believe it, and throw a a little money at a "good" project. That's why these scams persist.

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You hijack a thread for what reason?

There was no hijack here. THE THREAD WAS ABOUT THE BCN NINJAMINE.

8463  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: 10 months on... About the Bytecoin (BCN) ninjamine on: January 26, 2015, 11:34:13 AM
We absolutely do give kudos to the mathematician(s) behind the CryptoNote cryptography (and who we'd love to have on the Monero Research Lab panel), and credit does also have to go to the developer(s) who produces the CryptoNote reference code in the 7 months at the end of 2013 / beginning of 2014. If the original Bytecoin developers were involved in the creation of the reference code, then those kudos and credit extend to them up to that point, but we absolutely do not give credit for their attempt to fleece the cryptocurrency community.

But Monero is a fork of Bytecoin built on the Cryptonote technology? Kudos is definatly due. Would Monero be anywhere without it? Or would Bitmonero be anywhere without it?

Kudos for the cryptonote design is due for sure. The problem is there has been so much blatant deception, shilling, and scamming that went on with the bytecoin launch and the launch of the scam clones that it is almost impossible to know who in particular deserves it and who is a thieving scumbag.
8464  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: 10 months on... About the Bytecoin (BCN) ninjamine on: January 26, 2015, 11:25:24 AM
As to whether or not they've dumped their premine, given the unbelievably low Bytecoin exchange volume I simply think they haven't been able to. In order to dump a premine you have to have buyers, otherwise who are you selling it to? Leaving aside HitBTC, which is known to be untrustworthy and filled with fake trades (1 2 3), Bytecoin does about $2/day in volume. The most heavily traded day was June 21 when they did around 1.5 BTC in volume at a price of around 10 satoshi per Bytecoin. In the 245 days it has been listed on Poloniex, even if they were at peak every single day they would only have been able to dump 3 675 000 000 Bytecoins of their stash of 147 882 114 539 Bytecoins, which is 2.49%. Given that they're not at peak, the best they could have achieved over the past 245 days is a couple of hundred USD.

Not sure where those numbers came from. A lot of BCN traded on polo in the first month. Here's is the daily graph. The first scale line on the vertical axis is 20 BTC.



There were several days above that (most notably the first two days), and many more days in the 10-20 BTC range. You also have to consider the OTC trading, and the pre-poloniex trading on cryptonote.exchange.to.

My guess based on this data is a few hundred BTC of the premine was likely dumped (BTC was worth around 600 USD at the time) in the first month or two, but obviously nowhere near all of it. 300 BTC at 8 satoshi is still under 4 billion BCN. I have no idea how much was dumped in the later months, but once the volume dried up your numbers are pretty much right so no more than a few more billion.



8465  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 26, 2015, 09:58:59 AM
If I understand you correctly, I am creating a new wallet file EVERY time I restore with my 24 key words?  Can't I just use my 24 words to open my old wallet file with the existing name?

No, you're "restoring" the wallet, as in restoring it from a backup. If you have the file you wouldn't need to "restore" it, you'd just open it. But the point of creating a cold wallet is that you don't have the file. If you have the file, that's not a cold wallet, and then you should just use it normally (with a reasonably secure password).

ok, now that makes sense! your tutorial when you said you dont need to remember the password only applied to cold storage then. If I am keeping the file on my computer then I DO need a password to open it right? Otherwise I need to use the seed words to "recover" the wallet like I just did (since I did not have the password, but did have the file). Am I finally understanding things right?

Correct. You need the password to open a wallet file (if you assigned one; it is optional but recommended). You don't need the password to restore from the seed words, because you will be creating a new wallet file with a new password.

If you don't have the password then having the file does you no good, unless you can come up with the password somehow (remember it, brute force it, etc.). At that point you will need to restore the wallet, or lose your coins.

8466  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 26, 2015, 09:29:57 AM
I am getting the same issue where I am being asked for my wallet name instead of my 24 word key.

First it asks you for the name of the new (restored) wallet. Give a new name for a wallet file that doesn't already exist.

Second, it asks for a password which will be used to secure the new wallet.

Finally, it asks for the seed words.

8467  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 26, 2015, 12:22:27 AM
What happens when BCN reaches their 184.46 billion cap?

Miners will earn only transaction fees.

Not really the right thread though.
8468  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 25, 2015, 08:29:38 PM
Does anyone know if there are any other cryptonote currencies ahead of or near monero in capitalization?

There are no other cryptonote-based coins in the top 100 on coinmarketcap besides XMR and BCN.

SDC uses a cryptonote-based design for their anonymous tokens, which is a bit different in terms of coin design and doesn't share code but the cryptography is almost identical.

They call it "zero knowledge solution" though.

Perhaps that is self descriptive.
8469  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 25, 2015, 06:47:56 AM
How is the distribution of XMR now comparable to 6 months ago, what are the holdings for the top 100 addresses?

1. The anonymity works well enough that it isn't possible to answer that question

2. Richlists are a scam. Credit kazuki49: http://pastebin.com/S7aKCDgy



8470  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 25, 2015, 04:53:23 AM
...
If the threatened embrace of big banks and wall street goes anywhere beyond the toe-in-the-water stage then you can be sure it means bitcoin won't be disruptive after all.
...


I think that's a touch overly definitive. Part of the prospect of bitcoin is that it might not matter *how* it's embraced. Once it's value is high enough and it's in enough hands, it starts to become a financial backbone, both in terms of plumbing and store-of-value asset.

It also depends on what you mean by "disruptive". Replacing the plumbing of the existing financial system, while creating a new asset class - but still using dollars on the consumer tier - would be disruptive. But perhaps you're limiting the term to the more extreme fiat-goes-away scenarios.

I'd consider replacing the plumbing of the financial system to be disruptive (not something that happens often and creates massive winners and losers). Creating a new asset class would not be disruptive (happens all the time, there are dozens of asset classes already, or far more, depending on how you count).

If banks and wall street strongly embrace bitcoin it will mean that bitcoin is very compatible with business-as-usual, and its effects will be limited. If they keep a close eye on it, experiment with it, create niche products around it, then it might be disruptive. For example, I'd consider an ETF in this category, as it fits with "new asset class." It does not fit within "replace the plumbing of the financial system." At least not yet.

Disruptive technologies are strongly embraced by dominant players belatedly and reluctantly, when new winners have already been established, and it is too late to retain their dominant role in the post-disruption playing field. For example, Google has more advertising revenue than the entire television business, possibly more than all of traditional media combined. That's because big media did not strong embrace the internet; it didn't fit business-as-usual. They all had web sites and so forth, but they didn't and couldn't truly embrace it -- meaning change everything about the way they do business -- the way Google could.




8471  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 25, 2015, 03:57:05 AM
But .... if and when a central bank fails, like in Zimbabwe for instance ... not because bitcoin caused it, but because the system failed all by itself ....

It is entirely normal that disruptive technologies are most useful, initially, on the edge cases where the dominant system doesn't work well, and not at the core use case where dominant system is highly optimized, and large value chains are built around it. Indeed disruptive technologies often cause a dominant system to further specialize on a core market -- ceding fringe markets altogether instead of expending resources to serve them -- where it then becomes even more optimized and successful, for a while (often quite a while).

So yes if bitcoin is disruptive then you would expect to take hold in places like Zimbabwe, remittences to Somalia, online gambling, underground markets, etc.

If the threatened embrace of big banks and wall street goes anywhere beyond the toe-in-the-water stage then you can be sure it means bitcoin won't be disruptive after all (but as tvbcof points out may still be very profitable for early adopters).

We shall see.
8472  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 25, 2015, 01:57:54 AM
Speaking of Bytecoin and coinmarketcap.com, they still haven't marked it as a premined coin, even though all the evidence is there that they did premine it.

It was, but the Bytecoin supporters got the tag removed. As I said, they're pretty clever and professional scammers. There's a thread about it somewhere.
8473  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 24, 2015, 07:53:08 AM
If they actually cash out their 80% premine, does the coin stop being a con? Because it's the pre-mine that makes the coin a con. And dumps are what legitimate investors are afraid of, right? If they cash out the premine, it would transform the coin into a fairly distributed coin. Those devs may even have an incentive to stick around as devs for additional opportunities that devs get based on their status as experts. Could there be a bizarro future where bytecoin becomes a legitimate coin? LOL.

That assumes that reputation as a scammer means nothing. I'd personally not want to invest in a coin where the developers were known scammers, but to each his own.

However, in the case where:

1. It were known that the original scammers had cashed out, and that the buyers were actually widely distributed and not just another (or somehow the same) small group of scammers; and

2. The original developers abandoned the project and someone else took over.

Then sure it could become a totally legitimate project.

The odds of this actually happening are between slim and none.

In a sense, though this is one obtuse way to describe Monero. The original developers cashed out at effectively zero (or whatever they got dumping BCN in the first couple of months) and a new group of unrelated developers took over.

8474  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 24, 2015, 07:32:26 AM
As with any pump and dump, their play is to sooner or later trade out of the 150+ billion (80%+) premined coins. Trying to make a big enough pump to do that in todays market would be difficult if not impossible. The market won't even support selling 1k-2k USD per day. So the most sensible strategy is to keep it somewhere viable in the rankings at minimal cost, wait, and hope for a better chance to exit.


Their only hope of cashing out is a massive crypto bubble where every shitcoin in the Top 50 is getting millions thrown at it by panicked investors who aren't taking the time to research each one.

When you have 80% of the coins it doesn't take a massive crypto bubble like that to cash out 10 million USD or more. BCN market cap peaked at about 12 million USD, and that wasn't in during a massive crypto bubble, at least not the peak of one, it was well into the 2014 decline.

BCN has a better chance to pump out than some crappy #40-50 coin. It has interesting technology, pretty web sites, a backstory, and a somewhat professional and experienced crew of scammers running it.


Pumping their market cap to 12 million USD might only cost them a few thousand. Actually selling 10 million worth to investors will be a different story. Should be interesting to see if they can. At that point, I'd have to admit that it was a pretty good long-con.

It's certainly an attempt at a long con. Why the hell else are they still at it (while having given up on the other ones)?

I'll agree with you its a long shot, but perhaps worth the probably-modest cost of keeping it going now.
8475  Economy / Speculation / Re: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value on: January 24, 2015, 07:30:17 AM
A little patience is really all that is required here. This model is calling for 1000 USD/BTC in three months or so. Sooner or later the price will either converge with the model or will diverge so much that the model becomes absurd. So far neither has happened.

There is a certain structural validity to it, if you accept Metcalf's Law as a valuation metric and observe that users have been growing roughly linearly (reported by coinbase and others).



Arg, where's that article on Metcalfe's Law being wrong... I feel (vague, I know, I know) like it's more n log(n) than n^2.

Eh, maybe n^2 is the better model during early growth, though.

I'm not a big fan of Metcalfe's law as a valuation metric anyway, but I was just pointing out that this graph supports it.

I should clarify that by "a little patience is really all that is required here" I meant to see if the model works. I wasn't suggesting that I think patience is all that is needed to see high prices. I'm pretty uncertain about that.

Also, we might note that n log(n) doesn't diverge that much from n^2 if n is "small"
8476  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 24, 2015, 07:24:25 AM
Bytecoin has slipped ahead of Monero on coinmarketcap.com again. Sad

Price only means something within the context of volume.

Has Bytecoin ever had higher volume than Monero?  Even once?

BCN hasn't even had regular daily volume over 5 BTC since last summer.

It's dead Jim.  No wonder they are launching CN 2.0!

2.0 was the version of the original white paper, and is still the version number on the (slightly different) copy of the original white paper on their web site right now: https://cryptonote.org/whitepaper.pdf



Nothing new here. Probably -- who knows what they will actually do -- they're somewhat clever scammers.

Showing up at a conference seems like part of the effort to keep hope (of a pump and exit) alive.

8477  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 24, 2015, 07:13:50 AM
As with any pump and dump, their play is to sooner or later trade out of the 150+ billion (80%+) premined coins. Trying to make a big enough pump to do that in todays market would be difficult if not impossible. The market won't even support selling 1k-2k USD per day. So the most sensible strategy is to keep it somewhere viable in the rankings at minimal cost, wait, and hope for a better chance to exit.


Their only hope of cashing out is a massive crypto bubble where every shitcoin in the Top 50 is getting millions thrown at it by panicked investors who aren't taking the time to research each one.

When you have 80% of the coins it doesn't take a massive crypto bubble like that to cash out 10 million USD or more. BCN market cap peaked at about 12 million USD, and that wasn't in during a massive crypto bubble, at least not the peak of one, it was well into the 2014 decline.

BCN has a better chance to pump out than some crappy #40-50 coin. It has interesting technology, pretty web sites, a backstory, and a somewhat professional and experienced crew of scammers running it.
8478  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation on: January 24, 2015, 06:28:01 AM
Bytecoin has slipped ahead of Monero on coinmarketcap.com again. Sad


You do understand that the real market cap is very close to zero right?

Well over 80% premine plus an almost infinite supply gives it a market cap at 1 million when if only sells at the lowest possible price that's possible on an btc-exchange. 1 satoshi.

They could easily trade it up to multiple million $ in market cap with only a few thousand dollars.

It definitely sounds like something that they would do. Why haven't they? Smiley

As with any pump and dump, their play is to sooner or later trade out of the 150+ billion (80%+) premined coins. Trying to make a big enough pump to do that in todays market would be difficult if not impossible. The market won't even support selling 1k-2k USD per day. So the most sensible strategy is to keep it somewhere viable in the rankings at minimal cost, wait, and hope for a better chance to exit.

Notice how the other clone coins run by the same outfit have been abandoned (FCN, QCN, MCN, etc.). That's because they didn't have the same magnitude of premine (though they all had a month or two of likely instamine given their un-deoptimized miners), so not enough incentive to keep them going.

8479  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 24, 2015, 05:23:26 AM
Looking forward to finding out if Tomaso Aste is Nicolas van Saberhagen, who just happens to have the same initials as Nick Szabo!

Look, these guys are lying scammers; that is pretty well proven. I have no reason to believe whoever they stick up there to shill is actually the original inventor, and if it is, well that's just one more person identifed as a lying scammer.

Tomaso Aste seems legit, perhaps even a potential Satoshi:

I should have clarified that. Cryptonote are the lying scammers. I don't know if Aste has anything to do with them. For the sake of his otherwise good (as far as I know) reputation, I hope not.

8480  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency - 0.8.8.6 on: January 24, 2015, 04:01:24 AM
Limited usefulness is still useful.  No need to make perfect the enemy of good enough for critical purposes like decentralized escrow, especially when ideal solutions require research sufficient for a breakthrough (which might require a hard fork to implement).

I agree to a point. Any multisig would require a hard fork at this point, btw.

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Minimum mixin of 3 seems far too low.  Would it make the blockchain explode if the minimum was 33 or 99?

Sure it would (transaction size is close to linear with mixin size), but I disagree that a minimum of 3 is far to low. Why do you say that?

Quote
Looking forward to finding out if Tomaso Aste is Nicolas van Saberhagen, who just happens to have the same initials as Nick Szabo!

Look, these guys are lying scammers; that is pretty well proven. I have no reason to believe whoever they stick up there to shill is actually the original inventor, and if it is, well that's just one more person identifed as a lying scammer.

Quote
And smooth was wrong, there are three Cryptonote coins in the top 100 (XMR, BCN, and XDN).  If you filter the non/pre-mined shitcoins, BBR also makes the cut.

Yes you are right!

Believe it or not, I searched for XDN, but I looked for "ducknote." Doh!

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