House edge is fine imo and no excuse. The casinos have some costs and they are running a service that you actively choose to use, so they should get paid. What I dont like is, when they have super high house edge only because they are incapable of running their business properly or are simply greedy. Offline slots in pubs here often only have a payout of 60% - 70% and this is just rip-off imo, although there are higher running costs compared to an online casino. But they have big lobby, because their big profits also means big taxes and thus the state protects them kind of (and the state always struggles to get taxes from online casinos).

It takes some weeks/months to properly pimp them You can't go from 100% to 0% in days. You gradually go lower step by step, maybe imitating the curves of countries that were successful in controlling the virus. By late October you then a have a situation, where Trump can brag about these "achievements". This won't work, if numbers stay as high as currently, but when numbers improve a bit, you can improve them more with a system you control and nobody will take notice.
If hospitals are at (over-)capacity it's hard to cover up imo, because the media will be all over it, but when a hospital reports 70% full (with downward tendency), you can easily make that 50% or 40% and nobody will even notice or be suspicious about it.

Hehe, it wasn't me, but my friend, and I have to say I agree with his prediction Draws are always a bit meh to bet on, unless you expect a 0-0, because you will get better odds for it inplay, but here a draw is good enough for both teams imo and there is no inplay for MultiMaster^^. Three points would be better for both of them, but losing is even worse, so both teams will take a very cautious approach imo. If there is a draw in the middle of the second half, I don't see any team pushing a lot and risk that one valuable point. And West Ham as home team also has a big goal differential advantage over Bournemouth/Aston Villa, which is another point worth in the end. 1 point today will basically put them at a 5 point cushion to relegation zone, which should be enough.

Edit: Correct @morvillz7z. Lets see with Cagliari, I would have chosen Sassuolo as well, but maybe one of those times, where his gut feeling is spot on

Trying a new modus operandi for this edition. Friend of mine is on a pretty good run lately and has been hitting quite some high odds. He is not a good punter normally, but every now and then has amazing gut feeling. Since he is not into Bitcoin and has no Sportsbet account, I gave him the matches and let him do the picks for me. Lets see, if he is more successful than me. Green colour this week:

AC Milan - Bologna FC
Fiorentina - FC Torino
AS Roma - Inter Milan DRAW
Arsenal - Manchester City
Cagliari - Sassuolo
Derby County - Leeds United DRAW
FC Tokyo - Urawa Red Diamonds
Hellas Verona - Atalanta
Manchester United - Chelsea
Odense Boldklub - Randers FC DRAW
Perth Glory - Central Coast Mariners
Napoli - Udinese
West Ham United - Watford DRAW
Yokohama FC - Kawasaki Frontale
Stoke City - Brentford FC

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The 2020 season was scheduled to begin in February, but due to Corona it was postponed and starts July 25th now. The teams are split into two groups with a round robin format, followed by a championship stage for the Top4 of each group and a relegation stage for the bottom four teams accordingly. Group A will play in Dalian, group B in Suzhou.

These are the groups:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/football/china/super-league/standings/

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For the first round, I would like to recommend the following bets:

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan 2 (@1.58)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG 2 (@1.54)
parlay @2.43 7/10

and

Chongqing Lifan - Beijing Guoan HC2 -1.5 (@2.45)
Tianjin Teda - Shanghai SIPG HC2 -1.5 (@2.36)
parlay @5.78 2/10

Odds are from FortuneJack.

These odds are super value, should be 1.2 for both. Chongqing/Tianjin have huge trouble with their import players and Beijing/Shanghai are far superior anyway. You might want to choose lower stakes, because no one knows, what will happen in first round after Corona issues, but these odds will drop very likely and you can at least hedge them before kick-off. Games are played in neutral location.

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Feel free to discuss this league in here, post your picks or add some information (these are often hard to find). But please don't spam useless stuff here or I will have to delete it; this is a self-moderated thread.

Does anyone else think, that the WH bypassing the CDC with Corona reporting is just to possibly manipulate the data ? The official reasoning was something along the lines the CDC being too slow:

Source: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/07/15/npr-white-house-strips-cdc-of-data-collection-role-for-covid-19-hospitalizations

The data has now to be sent to a system, which was set up by a private company with a $10mln award given according to the article. I buy the fact that the CDC is probably slow (or slower than a more lean private company is), but I can't get rid of the feeling that the real reason is something else, i.e. getting the numbers down by using different calculation methods or whatever.
You could have just implemented a different system in the CDC or optimize the current system, they should have enough funding for that.

Opinions ?

There were rumours since some days that there are some more things brewing in Washington than just a name change. And now it seems there is a little earthquake happening with an article published by the Washington Post. Since the article is behind a paywall, I will quote the top headline from another site:

Source: https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/washington-redskins-executives-sexual-harassment-verbal-abuse-female-employees

Another loss, slowly but surely going back to break-even, hope things turn around quickly It's better not to bet on rising odds in gerenal, but sometimes it looks just too tempting. 107-100 FT

Profit: +3.45   
Yield: 3.83%   
W-L: 11-10
Win rate: 52.38%   
Average Stake: 4.29   
Average Odds: 2.27

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Yeah, sorry I think in CBA you should frequently look to hedge your bet a bit inplay and/or create some jackpots/windows. Even better to just do everything inplay, but for this thread this is not feasible, so we have to live with games taking huge U-turns.


Beikong is short for Beijing Konggu, which is their name, while the team is 北京控股紫禁勇士俱乐部, which is then Beijing Royal Fighters. Since there is another team in Beijing (Ducks), people normally use Beikong/Beijing to clearly distinguish between them. Beikong, in their short history, already had quite a few names, so I always use Beikong for them as well whatever their "official" name is as we speak.

Yep, something I had in my mind for discussion too at a later point. Like does scamming a scammer make you a scammer yourself ? From the general answers so far in this thread, I would assume that most users would be ok with doing it and you are no scammer per se, more like a modern Robin Hood maybe. But then again, a lot of users showed high moral standards (which is good) and even scamming a scammer is not easy to square with your conscience. You either have it kind of in your DNA or not imo and feel bad for doing it yourself, no matter the circumstances. Technically it will be hard anyway, since they are pro with scamming most of the times and you are not.   

Yes, this is just playing around a bit with what we have now. It's a static view of what would most likely happen, if the elections were today. Bookies/markets can be very wrong (see 2016), but in general and/or on average and/or longterm, the odds reflect relatively precise what are the probabilities. Thats why I made this little analysis, which is of course a bit moron-ish, because it just looks at the status quo.

But I find it interesting and plan to monitor the odds movements regularly and compare (maybe every 2 weeks or so). And if there is no huge opposition against it, I will post my findings here and then we can discuss the changes, if any. But it will still be only a snapshot until we are in November

Looked very good until Q4, and then CBA madness striked again:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/ShL2YwTf/#match-summary

Annoying as hell tbh, but what can you do.

Profit: +6.45   
Yield: 7.41%   
W-L: 11-9
Win rate: 55.00%   
Average Stake: 4.35   
Average Odds: 2.30

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For tomorrow just one small bet:

Guangzhou - Jiangsu ML Jiangsu @1.76 3/10

Jiangsu have a new coach and already won last game as huge underdogs. When the odds came out, they went down quite fast, but have now come back, which maybe is a hint for them losing on purpose to have a "chance" to finish behind Shanghai. If I was 100% sure that Jiangsu wants to win, this would be medium-big bet, but with this uncertainty just small stakes (and praying ).

I edited another bet for that game in, which is maybe not that interesting for you, but just so you are aware and can maybe react inplay. As I said, in that league a 10-30 quarter followed by a 40-24 quarter is not a rare thing - this league just has some special dynamics Odds are now 2.05 - 1.70 with HC being +/-2,5, which shows there was lots of value in the early odds, but 48 minutes of crazyness are still to be played and you can never know what is the "agenda" for a team on any given day.

Here you could have different layers/scenarios again. Lets assume this is just a one-time glitch and not something you can exploit again.

If your order was for $5 and through this glitch you got $5 on top. Would you want to give the money back no matter what ? I think most people would take the extra $5 and move on. Now if you got $100k plus $100k, this is a different ball game. There is an individual threshold with being "honest" and the higher the amount, the more likely you will be honest imo.


I think 99,99% would take the 10 BTC. You see the opportunity and grab it in the heat of the moment, without thinking too much, this is just normal human behaviour (when you know someone else would do it, if you don't do it). And it's anonymous. The interesting thing is what happens afterwards - I guess the overwhelming majority would feel guilty and even try to somehow give the money/BTC back to the rightful owner. I could even imagine a scenario, where you put the BTC up again for $100 and let someone else deal with those feelings

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Some years ago there was a Youtuber, who made some tutorial about a wallet installation or whatever. He had a good stack and was cautious, as you should be, by blurrying his private keys for the video. But when he minimized a window, his private keys were visible for the split of a second. One viewer wrote down the keys, imported them into his wallet and send the funds away. Not for stealing them, but to protect them and give them back to the Youtuber. Very proactive, noble and honest

efialtis hat ja gestern sein neues Projekt vorgestellt und wenn man sich diesen Post ansieht, dann könnte es dort auch in absehbarer Zeit eine neue Kampagne geben. Wer gerade nichts hat, kann ja die Sig/Avatar einfach schon mal so ein bisschen ohne Verpflichtungen tragen; efialtis war in der Vergangenheit ja auch immer großzügig mit diversen Gewinnspielen etc. Geben und Nehmen.

Did some "analysis" on the 50 states, checked their odds, and will put it here, if anyone is interested. It's also good for comparison later on.


Odds source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college
For Ohio: https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics/competitions/US-Politics/outrights

It's missing the 3 votes for D.C.

I assumed that bookmakers/markets do a good job and everything <1.50 is safe. Even if Trump wins all the states, where there is no super clear favourite, we would have 276 - 259 for Democrats. Trump winning Wisconsin and the D.C. votes going to Democrats would result in a tie

These odds for Arizona -> Republican look huge considering Democrats won there only once since 1952 (Clinton in 1996) - what this virus can do......

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Regarding the VP, the odds for Harris have gone up in the last days. Not much (~2.20 to ~2.50), but maybe certain people already know something

Beikong - Xinjiang HC Beikong +8,5 @ 1.67 6/10
Beikong - Xinjiang ML Beikong @3.28 3/10

Super nice value odds/lines, will edit reasoning later.

Edit: Xinjiang is more or less a fix for 2nd place and they will maybe look to take it easy tomorrow and save some energy. Beikong is still fighting for that Top4 spot and will throw everything they have at Xinjiang. Beikong wasn't too convincing recently, but this is all about motivation.

Edit2: I am adding Xinjiang -2.5 @1.89 for 5/10. Just got to know that Xinjiang is getting some personnel back for todays match, which is good for them. So adding a little "hedge" with a middle here and a 6-point-window.

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• 2500 DAI von MakerDAO (Wert $2500)
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Insgesamt gibt es 21 Sponsoren mit Preisen, also wird da in den nächsten Tagen und Wochen noch mehr dazu kommen. Und es gibt auch noch (Cash-)Preise für gewisse Skillsachen während der competition. Die werden dann wohl wieder in BTC/ETH ausgezahlt und sind keine Sachpreise, wenn man es so nennen mag.

Good luck with your new hobby, I know how much effort, time, money and sweat you put into this, so I hope it will be a success and guide gamblers to legit and fair places to have some fun

Great design also @jayce

I agree with that of course

But lets look at it from the the other side. You see a 10 BTC sell order in a self-regulated exchange for $100 per BTC and you buy them. Would you feel good about it ? Would you consider this behaviour ethical ? If you don't buy them, then another user will buy them. Would you hesitate to buy them to not have any compunction ?

Does it make any difference, if you actively buy them or just had a order in the market that mysteriously got filled ?

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I never saw it for 1X2 and AHC too, but there was for example a bookmaker in the past, where in Formula 1 you could parlay odds for winner & Top3 market. When I told them, they never got back to me and didn't even fix it.

I don't support it Since this is a privately paid bounty, the "donator" should be free to have whatever rules he likes to have. If he still wants to give the bounty to a winning player, to donate it to lottery/Grand Final pool, roll it over to next tournament or don't pay nothing in this scenario, should be up to him and not forced by some general rule.

We should be happy that people add more money voluntarily and not "bully" them