[Betting & Discussion] Chinese Basketball Association - Rest of 2019/2020 Season

[tyKiwanuka]

Chinese Basketball Association (CBA)


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Basketball_Association#/media/File:Chinese_Basketball_Association.png

The Chinese Basketball Association (CBA) has resumed their league on June 20th after it was paused for almost five months. As most of the Basketball leagues, there is kind of a new format. The CBA plays the rest of their games at two venues - Dongguan and Qingdao. There will be games played until July 1st, then a 3-day-break, and starting at July 4th two more weeks of play after which the playoffs start then.

I will post some bets here, please follow at your own risk; this league is crazy and there is a lot of match fixing going on. They have some special rules regarding the import players and when playing against military team Bayi Rockets there are even some additional rules. I will work out these bets together with a friend of mine, who is not active in this forum, so this is a team effort. I will try to do short write-ups/reasonings, if this is "possible".

I will use unit system 1/10 to 10/10 for the bets and keep track here in this thread. Nearly all bets will be pre-match, since the odds are moving too fast inplay to have everything transparent in here and for people to follow properly, if they want. Every now and then, there might be a live bet, when the game is in half-time or between quarters. There is no dedicated bookmaker, where the bets are played. You can find CBA markets in all bookmakers, fiat and crypto, just check for yourself, where you can get the best odds, if you want to follow.

Feel free to discuss, add some thoughts or post your own bets from CBA. This is not a thread exclusively for me to have a monologue here, but it's self-moderated, so don't spam useless stuff please.

Good luck


First two bets, starting in 10 minutes:

Shandong - Beijing HC2 -5.5 @1.79 5/10
Shandong - Beijing under 207.5 @1.73 5/10

Beijing has lost first leg with 90-95, so it's important for them to win with at least +6 today, to win the H2H.


Bets for June 24th:

Shanghai - Liaoning HC1 +12,5 @1.85 5/10
Shanghai - Liaoning ML Shanghai @7.40 1/10

Opening line was +/-6,5 which was probably fair, but +/-12,5 is definitely too much, so worth a try. If HC is too high, the ML has value then too, so small stakes on the upset as well.

3 bets for the late game:

Xinjiang - Beijing HC2 +7.5 @1.89 5/10
Xinjiang - Beijing ML Beijing @3.60 1/10
Xinjiang - Beijing under 193.5 @1.91 3/10

[tyKiwanuka]

This 24h post rule is a bit inconvenient for such kind of threads, so sorry for that little chaos, if anyone even noticed the edits for new bets

Shandong - Beijing HC2 -5.5 @1.79 5/10
Shandong - Beijing under 207.5 @1.73 5/10

Both won, with good Q4 effort from Beijing, 94-103 FT, +7.60 here.

Shanghai - Liaoning HC1 +12,5 @1.85 5/10
Shanghai - Liaoning ML Shanghai @7.40 1/10

Shanghai was competitive for three of the four quarters, but they didn't show up for Q3 and lost that one 10-34, which also lost both bets then. A very one-sided quarter isn't a rare event in CBA, but it still annoys me every time it happens against my team 87-104 FT, -6.00 here.

Xinjiang - Beijing HC2 +7.5 @1.89 5/10
Xinjiang - Beijing ML Beijing @3.60 1/10
Xinjiang - Beijing under 193.5 @1.91 3/10

No sweat here, Beijing was leading 95% of the time, biggest lead of Xinjiang was 2 points. 67-78 FT, +9.78.

-

Profit: +11.38   
Yield: 45.52%   
W-L: 5-2
Win rate: 71.43%   
Average Stake: 3.57   
Average Odds: 2.88   


Looks like there is nothing tempting for tomorrows games. If there is some more movement in the markets, opportunities might open up and I will post bets then.

[tyKiwanuka]

Two bets for tomorrow:

Guangdong - Tianjin HC1 -29.5 @1.89 3/10

Not a fan of these huge handicaps, but Guangdong is just in a league of its own and Tianjin is poor.

-

Zhejiang Guangsha - Beijing HC2 -7.5 @1.85 4/10

Was hoping for a slightly lower HC, so reduced stakes, but Beijing is the better team right now and it's an important game for them regarding the Playoffs.

[bisdak40]

Posting here to let you know that i follow this kind of thread from a reputable users of this forum and also i'm a basketball fan and most of my bets were coming from this sport. 

I will post some bets here, please follow at your own risk; this league is crazy and there is a lot of match fixing going on.

So, this is true?

[tyKiwanuka]

I will post some bets here, please follow at your own risk; this league is crazy and there is a lot of match fixing going on.

So, this is true?

I can't give you any proof, but if you follow this league closely, there are a lot of strange things happening, sometimes even caught on camera (at the sidelines). The CBA has their own dynamics with all these special rules, but still there are crazy things going on on a regular basis, which can only be explained with match fixing. Just today there was this rather strange game between Guangzhou and Tongxi (check the Match History tab, especially Q4 with pre-match odds and HT1 result in mind) and this happens quite often. Pre-match the odds/HC-lines/over-lines are often quite volatile, where you can play middle and more often than not, the teams manage to land just in the middle of things You then have a team intentionally fouling with 1sec left in Q4 albeit they could just let the clock run out. With the following FT's they get a certain result (which they also were already chasing all the time in Q4).

And it's not always the players or some syndicates doing this, but the bookmakers are also involved. This was witnessed more than once by friends of mine, mainly in pre-season, when they were present live at the games. B*t*6* faked their internal scoreboard and the odds accordingly to fool punters into some bets that could never win.
And then you have live odds that just make no sense in a non-fixed match. Whatever happens on the court, doesn't reflect in the odds, because the bookmaker "knows" the final outcome. So he offers apparently very good odds for something that looks very likely to happen, but will never happen in reality, because it's fixed. You have to be very cautious - something that looks too good to be true, is very likely fixed in CBA

All in all this is a pretty dirty league, but still profitable to bet, if you know what is going on and accept certain things as part of the (dirty) game. And match fixing is going on everywhere, not only in CBA. But in CBA it's extreme imo and often times they don't make a lot of effort to even cover it up

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangdong - Tianjin HC1 -29.5 @1.89 3/10
Zhejiang Guangsha - Beijing HC2 -7.5 @1.85 4/10

Guangdong ate Tianjin alive and were leading with 30 already at half-time, 132-79 FT then, +2.67.
Guangsha with some upset, everything pointed to Beijing having an easy win, but this is CBA afterall^^, 100-87 FT, -4.00.
-1.33 for the day.

Profit: +10.05   
Yield: 31.41%   
W-L: 6-3
Win rate: 66.67%   
Average Stake: 3.56   
Average Odds: 2.66


One bet for the late games:

Shenzhen - Shanxi ML Shenzhen @1.91 4/10
Odds already dropped quite a bit, but I will follow the money here. Shenzhen has more to play for than Shanxi and these teams have a bit of a weird H2H history.   


Bets for June 28th:

Fujian - Guangdong HC2 -20.5 @1.93 6/10

Fujian has big game upcoming on Tuesday against Shenzhen, for which they might want to save some energy. They will lose this game 99% anyway, so not much resistance to be expected.

Beijing RF - Jilin HC1 -4.5 @1.87 6/10

Beijing RF the better team right now and they should look not only to win, but to win with 4+ to have the upper hand in the H2H. They lost 78-82 earlier this season to Jilin.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shenzhen - Shanxi ML Shenzhen @1.91 4/10
Fujian - Guangdong HC2 -20.5 @1.93 6/10
Beijing RF - Jilin HC1 -4.5 @1.87 6/10

Shenzhen won a Q4 nailbiter 90-88 FT after looking to have everything under control in Q3 already, +3.64.
Guangdong disappointed after leading with 24 at halftime. They took the foot off the gas in HT2 and just won with 17 in the end, 143-126 FT (quite some points ), -6.00.
Beijing RF couldn't save the day as well. The game was close throughout all 4 quarters, which is very unusual for CBA. Game went to OT accordingly, where Beijing failed to win with 5+ then. 117-115 AOT, -6.00. Better luck next time I guess.

Profit: +1.69   
Yield: 3.52%   
W-L: 7-5
Win rate: 58.33%   
Average Stake: 4.00   
Average Odds: 2.47

-

No bets for tomorrow most likely, Tuesdays games look more interesting again.


Bets for Tuesday:
Jilin - Jiangsu HC1 -2.5 @1.88 4/10
Nanjing - Liaoning ML Liaoning @2.43 8/10

Jilin has a bit more to play for than Jiangsu.
Nanjing has some injury trouble and Liaoning were super sharp today with their new coach.

[tyKiwanuka]

Jilin - Jiangsu HC1 -2.5 @1.88 4/10
Nanjing - Liaoning ML Liaoning @2.43 8/10

Jilin decided to not show up in Q4 and even lost the game in consequence, 102-105 FT, -4.00.
Liaoning did their job - odds went down to 1.40-ish before tip-off - and dominated Q1-Q3, while showing some mercy in Q4, 120-107 FT, +11.44.

Profit: +9.13   
Yield: 15.22%   
W-L: 8-6
Win rate: 57.14%   
Average Stake: 4.29   
Average Odds: 2.42


This thread is a bit difficult to maintain like this, so I will post fewer bets in the future here, to make it more convenient for everyone who likes to follow.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shandong - Jilin HC2 -5,5 @1.93 4/10
Two teams that weren't very successful after the break, but Jilin looked sharper all in all and Shandong have some trouble with their personnel.

Nanjing - Xinjiang Halftime HC2 -7.5 @1.86 4/10
The top teams often go full throttle in first half to be able to rest their top players in second half a bit during these busy times and keep them fresh.

[tyKiwanuka]

Shandong - Jilin HC2 -5,5 @1.93 4/10
Nanjing - Xinjiang Halftime HC2 -7.5 @1.86 4/10

Jilin was a close game for three quarters, but in Q4 they were that bit sharper then as expected, 91-80 FT, +3.72.
With three seconds to go and the ball in their hands, Xinjiang was leading with 8, but then a turnover and two Nanjing points with 0.x seconds to go. You gotta love when "these things" happen in CBA , 52-46 HT, -4.00.

Profit: +8.85   
Yield: 13.01%   
W-L: 9-7
Win rate: 56.25%   
Average Stake: 4.25   
Average Odds: 2.36

-

The league will be on break for a few days now.

[tyKiwanuka]

There weren't a lot of good bets after the short-ish break, so lets get things rolling again with a small fav-parlay. Normally there shouldn't be any "issues", but we are still in CBA, so you never know Normally the lowest odds in a parlay is the one that gives you headaches, so the brave ones can try their luck with Shanghai and oppose me^^

Xinjiang - Shanxi ML Xinjiang @1.15
Shanghai - Guangdong ML Guangdong @1.01
Beijing - Jilin ML Beijing @1.23
parlay @1.43 5/10

[tyKiwanuka]

Xinjiang - Shanxi ML Xinjiang @1.15
Shanghai - Guangdong ML Guangdong @1.01
Beijing - Jilin ML Beijing @1.23
parlay @1.43 5/10

104-71 FT
89-122 FT
91-64 FT
+2.15

If only it was that easy all the time. Guangdong is really unbelievable; I rarely saw a team being that dominant. They can basically decide on their own how a match ends. If they would go full throttle every match, they could regularly win with 50+, but there are no points available for completely crushing your opponent.

Profit: +11.00   
Yield: 15.07%   
W-L: 10-7
Win rate: 58.82%   
Average Stake: 4.29   
Average Odds: 2.30

-

There was a good bet for tomorrow when odds came out, but the lines have moved and it's not worth to recommend now anymore, because most likely the value is gone.

[bisdak40]

Guangdong is really unbelievable; I rarely saw a team being that dominant. They can basically decide on their own how a match ends. If they would go full throttle every match, they could regularly win with 50+, but there are no points available for completely crushing your opponent.

Guangdong is unbelievable indeed but unpredictable as well. You never know when they will go full throttle  . I thought that in the second they would crush their opponent but they decided to relaxed and make that 2nd quarter a close one lol. Well that's CBA and everything in it is unpredictable.



Congrats on your last night's win btw.

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangdong is unbelievable indeed but unpredictable as well. You never know when they will go full throttle

Yes. You can find some patterns, if you follow everything closely, watch the games live and make your own calculations, but there are still some weird things happening, where the teams are not doing, what they are supposed to do Guangdong is just toying with their opponents and it could backfire in the PO - maybe.

The following rounds will get interesting, because certain teams probably don't want to finish at certain table positions. So we could see some strange results

There was a good bet for tomorrow when odds came out, but the lines have moved and it's not worth to recommend now anymore, because most likely the value is gone.

This bet was Tianjin +10.5. By the time I posted here, the line was down to +7.5. Game finished 116-107, so initial bet won, but if I would have recommended the lower line, it would have lost. Every point in CBA matters^^ And this is also an example, where I believe there is some fixing going on more often than not, because all middles won, like they do so often (at least it feels like it ).

For tomorrow the totals for Guangdong - Bayi looked a bit too high at 211.5. Now the line is at 206.5 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the game finish in the 207-211 points window.

Edit: Now the line is back to 211.5, this should be fun to witness.

[tyKiwanuka]

For tomorrow the totals for Guangdong - Bayi looked a bit too high at 211.5. Now the line is at 206.5 and I wouldn't be surprised to see the game finish in the 207-211 points window.

Edit: Now the line is back to 211.5, this should be fun to witness.

This finished with 224 points in the end, so false alarm.

But since I talked about strange things happening in CBA and maybe even bookmakers being involved, this is what happened in Tianjin - Liaoning match today:

During the second half, Pinnacle offered HC lines of +46,5/-46,5, while Bet365 had +54,5/-54,5. This is rather strange with 8 point difference. Tianjin was fighting till the end, even tried to steal the ball in the closing stages etc. With being 52 down and only like 20sec left, they stopped defending and gifted Liaoning a three-pointer with 12sec left. They stopped playing with these 12sec left and the game finished 78-133 FT, HC-54,5 won, which was a super poor bet to place, when you can get -46,5 elsewhere. But Bet365 "knew" how this game would end and trapped their customers into placing +54,5, which looked super value.


In Tongxi - Shandong game (110-125 FT), we had one player of Tongxi scoring all their 21pts in first quarter and he finished with scoring 74pts in the end, lol.

No bragging, but I played this bet when the odds came out:



At tip-off, the odds were like this:


Source: https://www.oddsportal.com/basketball/china/cba/

This league is crazy and often times the bookmakers have no clue, while otoh sometimes they have a very good clue what will happen, as you can see in Liaoning game

[tyKiwanuka]

Beikong - Xinjiang HC Beikong +8,5 @ 1.67 6/10
Beikong - Xinjiang ML Beikong @3.28 3/10

Super nice value odds/lines, will edit reasoning later.

Edit: Xinjiang is more or less a fix for 2nd place and they will maybe look to take it easy tomorrow and save some energy. Beikong is still fighting for that Top4 spot and will throw everything they have at Xinjiang. Beikong wasn't too convincing recently, but this is all about motivation.

Edit2: I am adding Xinjiang -2.5 @1.89 for 5/10. Just got to know that Xinjiang is getting some personnel back for todays match, which is good for them. So adding a little "hedge" with a middle here and a 6-point-window.

[tyKiwanuka]

Beikong - Xinjiang HC Beikong +8,5 @ 1.67 6/10
Beikong - Xinjiang ML Beikong @3.28 3/10
Xinjiang -2.5 @1.89 for 5/10

Looked very good until Q4, and then CBA madness striked again:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/ShL2YwTf/#match-summary

Annoying as hell tbh, but what can you do.

Profit: +6.45   
Yield: 7.41%   
W-L: 11-9
Win rate: 55.00%   
Average Stake: 4.35   
Average Odds: 2.30

-

For tomorrow just one small bet:

Guangzhou - Jiangsu ML Jiangsu @1.76 3/10

Jiangsu have a new coach and already won last game as huge underdogs. When the odds came out, they went down quite fast, but have now come back, which maybe is a hint for them losing on purpose to have a "chance" to finish behind Shanghai. If I was 100% sure that Jiangsu wants to win, this would be medium-big bet, but with this uncertainty just small stakes (and praying ).

[bisdak40]

Beikong - Xinjiang HC Beikong +8,5 @ 1.67 6/10
Beikong - Xinjiang ML Beikong @3.28 3/10
Xinjiang -2.5 @1.89 for 5/10

Looked very good until Q4, and then CBA madness striked again:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/ShL2YwTf/#match-summary

Annoying as hell tbh, but what can you do.

Something weird happened in the 2nd quarter and i thought the game is on the bag already for Beijing but weird thing reoccur again in Q4 lol. You've got higher odds for ML, i thought for a while that i'm betting on the wrong team, but your post above confirmed that i'm betting for the same team you are betting.  Beikong=Beijing, may i know the story behind this?


 

[ralle14]

Something weird happened in the 2nd quarter and i thought the game is on the bag already for Beijing but weird thing reoccur again in Q4 lol. You've got higher odds for ML, i thought for a while that i'm betting on the wrong team, but your post above confirmed that i'm betting for the same team you are betting.  Beikong=Beijing, may i know the story behind this?

I also thought they had it after gaining good momentum in the second quarter with a 12-0 run then it carried on until the third but unfortunate Xinjiang manage to control the game in the fourth.

I should've taken Xinjiang when the score difference was only 1 pt but I trusted the momentum way too much and decided to let it ride. 

[tyKiwanuka]

Guangzhou - Jiangsu ML Jiangsu @1.76 3/10

Another loss, slowly but surely going back to break-even, hope things turn around quickly It's better not to bet on rising odds in gerenal, but sometimes it looks just too tempting. 107-100 FT

Profit: +3.45   
Yield: 3.83%   
W-L: 11-10
Win rate: 52.38%   
Average Stake: 4.29   
Average Odds: 2.27

Something weird happened in the 2nd quarter and i thought the game is on the bag already for Beijing but weird thing reoccur again in Q4 lol.

Yeah, sorry I think in CBA you should frequently look to hedge your bet a bit inplay and/or create some jackpots/windows. Even better to just do everything inplay, but for this thread this is not feasible, so we have to live with games taking huge U-turns.

Beikong=Beijing, may i know the story behind this?

Beikong is short for Beijing Konggu, which is their name, while the team is 北京控股紫禁勇士俱乐部, which is then Beijing Royal Fighters. Since there is another team in Beijing (Ducks), people normally use Beikong/Beijing to clearly distinguish between them. Beikong, in their short history, already had quite a few names, so I always use Beikong for them as well whatever their "official" name is as we speak.