US Presidential Election 2020

[bbc.reporter]

Isn't it getting a bit late for Biden to announce his VP candidate? I am not denying the fact that Hillary selected Tim Kaine only by mid-July.. but Biden may get an early spike, if he pick his VP candidate within the next 1-2 weeks. Else that advantage may go to Trump, as in his case the VP pick is already known. Anyway, I expect the announcement to come by the end of next week.

An early spike months before an election is bad. It will give the opposition time to recover. Biden's lead should be managed and the slow trending maintained until November. The Democrats do not want their candidate to be similar to a pump and dump hehehehe.

In any case, this change might cause a civil war.



Electoral College voters can be forced to back state popular vote winners, Supreme Court says

States can require Electoral College voters to back the victor of their state’s popular vote, the Supreme Court ruled unanimously on Monday, in a major dispute that could have an impact on November’s presidential contest.

Read in full https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/supreme-court-electoral-college-ruling-states-can-force-electors-to-abide-by-popular-vote.html

[Daniel91]

Isn't it getting a bit late for Biden to announce his VP candidate? I am not denying the fact that Hillary selected Tim Kaine only by mid-July.. but Biden may get an early spike, if he pick his VP candidate within the next 1-2 weeks. Else that advantage may go to Trump, as in his case the VP pick is already known. Anyway, I expect the announcement to come by the end of next week.

It could be a reason for Biden because he couldn't do his campaign and it really did hurt him. However Trump can't use it, not only he continued to campaign and he went to places and even risked other people's lives by making a smaller venue just so it would look crowded, but he was also the president during Covid as well, so he could have basically prevented this all along.

Even the worst kind of dictatorial third world countries realized that all you need to do is close the country for a bit and when goes out just give people tickets for not wearing a mask. Even if they are idiots who say lizard people rule the world and masks are there to make you aliens on this flat earth... or whatever BS those weird people believe lately, as long as you ticket them with money, they would have to pay just once and would learn to wear it as long as that is the rule. So, Trump can't blame covid, he has to accept the fact that even with Covid he did everything he could to win.

It is mentioned in some media that Biden will choose an African- American woman for his VP.
Do you think such a decision can help Biden win the election, given the current political situation in America and "black lives matter " movement?

[Vishnu.Reang]

It is mentioned in some media that Biden will choose an African- American woman for his VP.
Do you think such a decision can help Biden win the election, given the current political situation in America and "black lives matter " movement?

I understand that African Americans remain as the most loyal voting block for the Democrats. But 95% or more of them already vote Democrat. So I don't know how Biden is going to gain by further courting them. IMO, he should go for either a Hispanic or an Asian as the VP pick. African Americans are not present in large numbers in many of the swing states. But that is not the case with Asian and Hispanic voters.

[STT]

I think he has to demonstrate good judgement, just including someone to point score or tick off a PC checklist would be the opposite of that.    He really does need not for any fake reasons but really requires a good VP to add to his ticket.    Just in the same way a young inexperienced Barack Obama (that narrative or perception) needed Biden to bolster his credibility with his many years, it did that pretty basic job of rounding off what many might have thought was missing from the ticket.   In this case Biden probably needs even more, he lacks a strong message or the defined appearance that appeals to voters and gets them off the sofa to vote.
   Hilary lacked that and somehow demonstrated hubris over humility before gaining the election, some people badly grasp whats required and obviously its the whole team of support not just Biden but it at least has to appear as coming from him.   I got a good question for you all that kind of sums it up, who the heck was Hilary's VP in the last race because I have no idea and I really should be able to recall at least some tiny detail if not an exact name.   I looked it up and I still dont recall anything about that VP, so dont do that would be the advice for Biden; be distinctive with a message.
   Probably worth watching odds just before and after a VP is announced as some idea of how its being taken.

[Captain Corporate]

 I think we are forgetting what "minority" means, if you pick a black or a hispanic VP you are going to get votes of some minorities but there is two problems with that, first of all republicans are already considered racist by a big amount of people, so you should not be afraid of any type of minority to go to them, they will either vote democrat or not vote at all. Secondly they are minorities for a reason, their numbers are lower than whites, and even though trying to appeal to whites is not a good strategy, if you pick someone like Beto for example, you can both get texas possibly which would change sooooo much, but you could also get a lot of older people as well in places like florida as well. After that you can do any progressive move you want, but for election florida and texas would be just game over for republicans.

[figmentofmyass]

It is mentioned in some media that Biden will choose an African- American woman for his VP.
Do you think such a decision can help Biden win the election, given the current political situation in America and "black lives matter " movement?

I understand that African Americans remain as the most loyal voting block for the Democrats. But 95% or more of them already vote Democrat. So I don't know how Biden is going to gain by further courting them.

voter turnout is the issue there. it doesn't matter if biden gets the black vote if they don't show up on election day. obama was extremely effective at bringing out the black vote. the hope is that a black VP candidate will bring back the same kind of energy.

IMO, he should go for either a Hispanic or an Asian as the VP pick. African Americans are not present in large numbers in many of the swing states. But that is not the case with Asian and Hispanic voters.

you have to think about how it all fits into the liberal paradigm and overall atmosphere of white guilt. this is probably about appealing to white liberal voters more than anything else. that's why biden vowed to run with a woman running mate, and probably why he'll pick a black woman too. that's what liberals want to see---minority representation, even if it's meaningless in terms of actual policy. middle class liberals overwhelmingly do not want to talk about class issues, so they focus on identity issues and channel all their political energy into that.

picking an asian american like duckworth plays better than a white person, but i don't think he'll get quite the same payoff as if he picked kamala or rice. kamala is best for biden's odds, although duckworth's military background might appeal to centrists who are on the fence.

[tyKiwanuka]

Did some "analysis" on the 50 states, checked their odds, and will put it here, if anyone is interested. It's also good for comparison later on.


Odds source: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/politics/electoral-college
For Ohio: https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics/competitions/US-Politics/outrights

It's missing the 3 votes for D.C.

I assumed that bookmakers/markets do a good job and everything <1.50 is safe. Even if Trump wins all the states, where there is no super clear favourite, we would have 276 - 259 for Democrats. Trump winning Wisconsin and the D.C. votes going to Democrats would result in a tie

These odds for Arizona -> Republican look huge considering Democrats won there only once since 1952 (Clinton in 1996) - what this virus can do......


Regarding the VP, the odds for Harris have gone up in the last days. Not much (~2.20 to ~2.50), but maybe certain people already know something

[Vishnu.Reang]

picking an asian american like duckworth plays better than a white person, but i don't think he'll get quite the same payoff as if he picked kamala or rice. kamala is best for biden's odds, although duckworth's military background might appeal to centrists who are on the fence.

So I guess he'll pick Kamala. I agree that Duckworth is more qualified, and carries a lot less political baggage. But then the nomination is never about merit. If the intention is to fire-up the white liberal bloc, then Kamala may do the job. But as I said earlier, she had been to many controversies and Trump may use her past statements and actions to target Biden.

[johhnyUA]

I assumed that bookmakers/markets do a good job and everything <1.50 is safe.

Honestly, can't agree with you. You've done a good job with table, but for example, in Michigan previous election (in 2016) was on Trump (he won this state with percent, but in booking matter the fact). And you telling that 1.44 for democrats is safe 

[jostorres]

Even if you give Ohio, Iowa and Georgia to Republicans, that is 204 in total. However by that logic if you give Nort Carolina, Florida and Arizona to Democrats that is 331 and that would be just game over waaaay before election officially ends.

I am just eyeing that Texas, if somehow that gets closer depending on VP announcement, that would be just silly easy to continue. And compared to popular belief, I just do not think Michigan is that easy and that predictable, normally it is almost always quite risky on Michigan and if Biden doesn't do anything about it it could turn out to be something unexpected like last time and Republicans could get it.

Michigan is an important one because it is 16 and that could change a lot. Just think about all the gray area ones going to republicans and that means one Michigan could change it back to Trump quite easily.

[tyKiwanuka]

Honestly, can't agree with you. You've done a good job with table, but for example, in Michigan previous election (in 2016) was on Trump (he won this state with percent, but in booking matter the fact). And you telling that 1.44 for democrats is safe 

Yes, this is just playing around a bit with what we have now. It's a static view of what would most likely happen, if the elections were today. Bookies/markets can be very wrong (see 2016), but in general and/or on average and/or longterm, the odds reflect relatively precise what are the probabilities. Thats why I made this little analysis, which is of course a bit moron-ish, because it just looks at the status quo.

But I find it interesting and plan to monitor the odds movements regularly and compare (maybe every 2 weeks or so). And if there is no huge opposition against it, I will post my findings here and then we can discuss the changes, if any. But it will still be only a snapshot until we are in November

[STT]

This is a big enough readership to be altering the results or voting possibly.    Depends how seriously people carry the books sentiments forward or not but fairly massive number and more then 1 person is likely to read each book I think.



https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/books/story/2020-07-16/mary-trump-book-first-day-sales-record-simon-schuster

[bbc.reporter]

@STT. That is only clickbait to sell her book hehe.

In any case, the major hacks on the blue check accounts on Twitter and Trump's new executive order on Hong Kong's normalization might not be a coincidence.

This gives Trump emergency powers to block anyone in America to invest in Chinese companies or deal with them.

Source https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidents-executive-order-hong-kong-normalization/

I reckon that the setting for war is ready. I speculate that the beginning might occur before November.

[erikoy]

@STT. That is only clickbait to sell her book hehe.

In any case, the major hacks on the blue check accounts on Twitter and Trump's new executive order on Hong Kong's normalization might not be a coincidence.

This gives Trump emergency powers to block anyone in America to invest in Chinese companies or deal with them.

Source https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidents-executive-order-hong-kong-normalization/

I reckon that the setting for war is ready. I speculate that the beginning might occur before November.

It is hard for trump to decide for war it needs the decision of majority coming from different states.

In relation to prohibition against the chinese or hongkong company to deal with or invest with might sound political also.This because hongkong is not a part of china so it can decide on their own. China is a communist country and are dealing with investments coming from different countries around the world. It is just a matter of how regulations to contribute the smoth flow of investment. Somehow they need other country for them to benefit in the development of the economy. So this is why Trump has decided for normalization from these country.

[tyKiwanuka]

Does anyone else think, that the WH bypassing the CDC with Corona reporting is just to possibly manipulate the data ? The official reasoning was something along the lines the CDC being too slow:

"The CDC's old data gathering operation once worked well monitoring hospital information across the country, but it's an inadequate system today," Caputo said in a statement shared with reporters. "The President's Coronavirus Task Force has urged improvements for months, but they just cannot keep up with this pandemic."

Source: https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/07/15/npr-white-house-strips-cdc-of-data-collection-role-for-covid-19-hospitalizations

The data has now to be sent to a system, which was set up by a private company with a $10mln award given according to the article. I buy the fact that the CDC is probably slow (or slower than a more lean private company is), but I can't get rid of the feeling that the real reason is something else, i.e. getting the numbers down by using different calculation methods or whatever.
You could have just implemented a different system in the CDC or optimize the current system, they should have enough funding for that.

Opinions ?

[johhnyUA]

But I find it interesting and plan to monitor the odds movements regularly and compare (maybe every 2 weeks or so). And if there is no huge opposition against it, I will post my findings here and then we can discuss the changes, if any. But it will still be only a snapshot until we are in November

This is what figmentofmyass talked about before. I mean to catch any opportunity to get a golden middle or some good odds. I doubt that such opportunities still exists (for example to bet on Biden), but for parties, like democrats of republicans maybe this variant still exist. But for me, to use odds under 1.4 is not a good idea. I mean there still enough probability that your bet will fail, but potential reward is few enough.

Bad risk/reward i mean.

[Darkoth89]

[...]

With the election coming closer and closer, it could be an advantage to have some control over the official numbers. But right now ... I don't really see how the White House would benefit from currently manipulated numbers. The daily numbers are already looking horrible. Each day a new record in new cases. If they are playing down the numbers now (already) without doing any counter measures to contain the virus, things will spiral out of control anyway. Or is their plan that in November most are too sick to vote?

[MFahad]

[...]

With the election coming closer and closer, it could be an advantage to have some control over the official numbers. But right now ... I don't really see how the White House would benefit from currently manipulated numbers. The daily numbers are already looking horrible. Each day a new record in new cases. If they are playing down the numbers now (already) without doing any counter measures to contain the virus, things will spiral out of control anyway. Or is their plan that in November most are too sick to vote?

The opposite of that would happen in November. Although the numbers does not favor the government at the moment if the virus is gone by that time or a vaccine is developed in the US, this will give a big boost to the white house and the current president will take all the credit and votes may go in his favour.

[FIFA worldcup]

@STT. That is only clickbait to sell her book hehe.

In any case, the major hacks on the blue check accounts on Twitter and Trump's new executive order on Hong Kong's normalization might not be a coincidence.

This gives Trump emergency powers to block anyone in America to invest in Chinese companies or deal with them.

Source https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidents-executive-order-hong-kong-normalization/

I reckon that the setting for war is ready. I speculate that the beginning might occur before November.

It is hard for trump to decide for war it needs the decision of majority coming from different states.

In relation to prohibition against the chinese or hongkong company to deal with or invest with might sound political also.This because hongkong is not a part of china so it can decide on their own. China is a communist country and are dealing with investments coming from different countries around the world. It is just a matter of how regulations to contribute the smoth flow of investment. Somehow they need other country for them to benefit in the development of the economy. So this is why Trump has decided for normalization from these country.

War is certainly not a solution. It will only create more tension and make the life difficult not only for the Americans themselves but also for the USA president. The best thing here the president cannot make a decision single handedly and all the states will never agree to start a war and hence i don't see a traditional war. However trade war is on going and will continue.

[figmentofmyass]

trump's odds per betfair are at 34%/2.9 again. are we finally gonna see 3.33+?! https://odds.watch/trump-2020

with the coronavirus doing what it's doing, i think this might be the time. disapproval of trump's coronavirus response is swelling.

The survey released Friday found that 38 percent of Americans approve of the president’s handling of the pandemic, down from 46 percent who said the same in May and 51 percent of respondents in March.
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/507783-poll-trump-disapproval-on-handling-of-coronavirus-jumps-to-60-percent-amid

trump is wearing a mask in media photos now. the white house task force says 18 states should roll back their reopening. things are getting serious and he knows the political blowback will be severe if he keeps being perceived as not taking the coronavirus seriously. let's see where the bleeding stops.

Does anyone else think, that the WH bypassing the CDC with Corona reporting is just to possibly manipulate the data ?

absolutely, 100%. there is no doubt in my mind. trump has been heading this direction for a while, suggesting repeatedly that we should stop testing people because the numbers only hurt the economy.

it's hilarious and depressing at the same time. things have gotten so bad that the USA is literally stooping to china's level re data censorship. unfavorable data will be spun to look good or outright suppressed if it makes things look bad enough. they've been doing it for months already with economic data, so why not?