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8701  Economy / Digital goods / Re: Many Bitmain S4 coupons ($400 value) and $50 S3+C1 coupons to give on: November 22, 2014, 04:22:21 AM
bumping. Anybody interested in "almost" free coupons with $400 value?

Have not you got a letter from Bitmaintech?
They give coupons for free to anyone who does not have coupons.

20. november
If you did not receive a coupon and you’d like to *purchase a miner* with a coupon, please do not hesitate and send an email to *info@bitmaintech.com* *in the below format*. We will manually assign the coupon to your account. You can only use one coupon per miner.

 Email Subject: Please assign the coupons to my account

User ID (the account in *bitmaintech.com*):

 Coupon Type (S3+, S4 and C1):

Quantity:


i did not, but what is your point, buddy?
i see that you are posting on every other thread here with your "info"
8702  Economy / Speculation / Re: Losing faith on: November 21, 2014, 05:25:44 PM
I bought in at 1000 , 750 , 650 , 450 , 350 , 270 , 350 , 420 , 350

Why are we still going down?
Is bitcoin failing?

It looks like he is right..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYJdOiLqSxE

Maybe cause it's a bubble?Huh

An "asset" with no intrinsic value???

Best to sell now before it gets to zero.

What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS.  BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure.  Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules.  Well played, IRS, well played.

I dont think so.  You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year.  Who said you need to report all conversions?  

This. Also, you are assuming that you'll have any BTC-related income to report. I think, for most people this year, the IRS provisions are a Godsend because they can now claim losses.
How do you claim losses if you don't sell your bitcoins for less than you paid for them?

If you want to take losses in bitcoin this year, there is one interesting strategy that I have seen described on stock boards.
1. You buy whatever the number of bitcoins you want to keep on or before November 30 (Nov 29, 28).
2. You sell previously bought bitcoins (those that you bought before those that you buy in #1) on December 31.
3. You claim loss in BTC trade against your other capital gains for the year until ALL such gains are gone+$3000
4. You should not buy any new bitcoin until after Jan 31 so you don't have wash sales.

Result: you will have newly bought bitcoins, but you reduce your tax on other capital gains if you had them (plus $3000)
Lose money just so you can claim to lose money. If everyone did that it would be musical chairs and you would be left without a chair.

No, the point is to get rid of extra capital gains in other assets WHILE maintaining the same number of bitcoin as you want.
Basically, you are replacing bitcoins bought during the year with bitcoins that you are buying in Nov28-Nov 30 timeframe.
8703  Economy / Speculation / Re: Losing faith on: November 21, 2014, 03:51:13 PM
I bought in at 1000 , 750 , 650 , 450 , 350 , 270 , 350 , 420 , 350

Why are we still going down?
Is bitcoin failing?

It looks like he is right..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYJdOiLqSxE

Maybe cause it's a bubble?Huh

An "asset" with no intrinsic value???

Best to sell now before it gets to zero.

What did it for me was, as a US citizen, having to report all conversions of BTC to the IRS.  BTC -> USD, BTC -> gold, BTC -> dinner .. all require IRS disclosure.  Basically, it makes Bitcoin irrelevant as a "currency" if you plan on following the rules.  Well played, IRS, well played.

I dont think so.  You are required to pay capital gains tax at the end of the year.  Who said you need to report all conversions?  

This. Also, you are assuming that you'll have any BTC-related income to report. I think, for most people this year, the IRS provisions are a Godsend because they can now claim losses.
How do you claim losses if you don't sell your bitcoins for less than you paid for them?

If you want to take losses in bitcoin this year, there is one interesting strategy that I have seen described on stock boards.
1. You buy whatever the number of bitcoins you want to keep on or before November 30 (Nov 29, 28).
2. You sell previously bought bitcoins (those that you bought before those that you buy in #1) on December 31.
3. You claim loss in BTC trade against your other capital gains for the year until ALL such gains are gone+$3000
4. You should not buy any new bitcoin until after Jan 31 so you don't have wash sales.

Result: you will have newly bought bitcoins, but you reduce your tax on other capital gains if you had them (plus $3000)
8704  Economy / Speculation / Re: This BTC bear market is very similar to the 2011 BTC bear market on: November 21, 2014, 03:39:20 PM
Great thread OP. Also, started one of the best discussion in ages in here Smiley

Just to summarize what I believe is a widely held sentiment: yes, there is a striking similarity, but with the crucial difference that 2011 was a correction in price, while 2014 seems to be a correction in time.

Both have the same effect in the end, that "expected price" (like the well known loglinear extrapolations) and actual price are wide apart, just the way it gets to this point is slightly different.

maybe we should have a contest on:
1. whether this is a terminal decline and price never recovers
2. If the price recovers what would be the bottom in price and time

personally, I am with scenario #2, but looking at Japan stock market makes me shudder: they had a 40 year unstoppable bull market, peaked at 39K, then 25 year bear market, which is still technically ongoing even with the recovery from 7K to 17K in the last 5-6 years.

I am following many threads, but had yet to seen a prediction of a low that looks valid. In fact, $280 prediction in the first post could easily be $140 if you compare with 2011 scenario.
8705  Economy / Speculation / Re: Difficulty going down on: November 21, 2014, 03:19:35 PM
hmm so the price is droping , difficulty is droping. all this means nothing for the future of bitcoin? people turning off their miners , people losing faith in the "bitcoin to the moon " dream . all this means nothing ?
it has hapened before and it looks like this is going to happen again. this time the effects might be more severe.
the estimate difficulty drop this morning was 1.07 % and now is at 1.31 %. now i dont see where that recovery is . to me the dificulty is sliding down as time passes.

 

Difficulty might drop 50% if BTC goes to $100-150. That size difficulty drop was what marked Nov 2011 bottom.
History rhymes?
8706  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Bitcoin Miner as a job on: November 21, 2014, 04:53:10 AM
I am a programmer and love programming. It's all I do. My dad wants me to get a job when I turn 16, but I dont want to. I am looking to spend about $1,000 (less if I could) on a miner and I want it to generate about $200 dollars a week on average. I have been looking at the SP20-Jackson miner which would generate about $140 a week and costs $1,190. Anyone have any suggestions on a miner. Thanks in advance!

hone these programming skills and focus on bitcoin
https://github.com/jashmenn/bitcoin-reading-list
try to get internship in bitcoin-related company

if you want to play with a miner, get antminer S3 to play around to get a knack of it- you can buy from ebay almost new (it earns little-$50-60/mo and uses ~$30 in electricity at 0.12/kwh). If you go for four S3 miners (they can produce up to $240/mo), cheapest would be to order from Bitmain with coupons ($50 coupons can be had for very little-see marketplace).
8707  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's happening! --- 3̶6̶0̶$̶ 454$ on: November 21, 2014, 04:19:45 AM
...
Many, many, many people.  The technology itself is very impressive as are the non-blackmarket uses.  It would be useful for those who doubt the uses to do some research and reading on it!

The same FUD has been going on here (and elsewhere) since (at least) fall 2010.  "Bitcoin will never hit dollar parity, it is a fad, a ponzi, unfairly distributed, not useful, will crash, won't get miners...etc".

 But a world currency it is not.


did Usenet looked like Dropbox or facebook?
I have no idea whether bitcoin will succeed or not, but it certainly is interesting intellectually.
8708  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Nov 18th to Dec 1 diff thread (-0.35%) to (1.14%) on: November 21, 2014, 03:45:29 AM
Loving this week's difficulty.  If they could keep difficulty down during my winter months I would appreciate it Smiley

I personally expanded over winter.  We will see if trend continues if I made right decision.  I just could not pass free/cheap cooling with winter.

I think about them in terms of "cheaper heating" for the house rather that cheaper cooling.
By my calculations, I would be saving ~30% of my heating bill over the winter. Already, I had the same level of gas usage during October as per summer months (no seasonal increase) because I did not have to switch heating ON even with ~50-55F outside (it stayed at ~74F in the house thanks to just six S3).
8709  Economy / Digital goods / Re: Many Bitmain S4 coupons ($400 value) and $50 S3+C1 coupons to give on: November 21, 2014, 03:35:01 AM
bumping. Anybody interested in "almost" free coupons with $400 value?
8710  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: Selling 100 Spondoolies SP30 Yukon miners with hosting on: November 19, 2014, 09:35:52 PM
As soon as someone puts miners for sale here, people always jumps at this: "you have to ask for less, you have to ask for less."
I see it differently-she gave you the price and it is clearly negotiable.
In addition, try to get 0.45 PH IMMEDIATELY with long term hosting commitment-I don't think that it is going to be easy.
The deal does not look great for one miner, but perhaps not bad for a large farm.
8711  Economy / Speculation / Re: $10,000 when? on: November 19, 2014, 07:53:07 PM
When considering if/when bitcoin price will hit $10,000 per coin remember:

Presently 3,600 coins are created each day.
At the current price of $375 per coin, that's $1.35M of additional supply created daily and $493M of additional supply created yearly.
The amount of demand coming in has been less than "Existing Supply" + "New Supply" so the price has been going down.

If bitcoin was to reach $10,000 per coin before the next halving.  (Currently estimated to occur 2016-07-31)  http://bitcoinclock.com/
The amount of new supply created would be:
Daily = $36 Million
Yearly = $493 Billion

Its not going to happen.  

daily 36 mil=yearly 13.1 bil, NOT 493 bil

yearly 13.1 bil is a small number. We have single entity hedge funds that have more under management.
A single minuscule entity-Second market seems to be buying BTC at a ~1000-1500 BTC/day average in the last 2-3 weeks.
8712  Economy / Speculation / Re: POLL: Next rally's ATH on: November 19, 2014, 04:47:34 PM
Lol at IDIOTS who think we will see another huge rally....


I have scientific evidence that EVERY TIME I enter an investment it is TOO LATE... out of everything I've put money in... I have lost money 100% of the time. I am deeply invested in BTC right now (~$20K) and I can guarantee you that we will not have another rally. I ALWAYS manage to catch a falling knife, or enter the game a little too late.... I never make money, this is 100% always the case. Sorry guys.

interesting observation. however, if true, you should just reverse your actions.
For example, you decided that one stock is good, you invest a small amount of money. Once it is done, automatically buy long term at the money puts if they are reasonably priced.
However, I think that what you describe is quite common to all of us and the reasons are purely psychological: we hate losing money more than enjoy gaining money.
It also underlies why many lose money on investments: when the stock dip initially, they hold, but ONLY until they are breakeven, then they sell, gaining nothing. When the stock goes up initially, they sell early, limiting the gains, and, of course, they hold losing stock until it zeroes out (if it happens).
8713  Economy / Speculation / Re: SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer on: November 19, 2014, 04:38:40 PM
IDK, it seems pretty significant to me. Imagine how much of the volume is daytrading garbage... 6k of real buys is probably the net change of 60k+ volume... or 600k+ on Chinese exchanges.
If you constantly remove 1k BTC a day from markets, it will cause upward pressure, of course, but it will take time for it to build. I don't think these 20k are significant, unless buying continues at the same pace for a couple of months.

There are two aspects of large, public buys or sells: the net effect on overall buying/selling, and the psychological effect. Your point re: net effect is correct of course, but the same could then be said (more or less) about the SR auctions (which are also just a week or two of mining subsidies). What it ignores is the substantial effect such orders have on the market in addition to it. Similarly to how Bitstamp's "bearwhale" created panic at first, then, when it turned out there is actually the demand to absorb the offer, created a (minor) rally, I believe that there's a (hard to quantify maybe) market impact of learning that large, presumably private, investors are buying at these prices, more than they did in the months before.
Don't you think that it's not that difficult to mask your buys? Because if you mask them properly, I believe you can avoid the psychological effect.

In principle, yes. That's why I've said for a while now, in opposition to some of the uberbulls, that if truly big capital wants to enter, they will probably do so off-exchange, by contractually binding large mining operations' outputs to themselves. That might still leave traces in the overall supply situation and have some effect on on-exchange prices, but probably be less of an impact than if they'd outright buy the same amounts on-exchange.

Anyway, the above is conjecture: it's only to point out why it is possible that big capital is entering a substantial position without us noticing directly that this is happening.

SecondMarket buys are publicly visible (or at least: the outcome is visible publicly, we don't know where and how they're getting their orders filled), that much is clear. So the psychological effect (if it exists) does apply.

But maybe I misunderstood the question?

Well, 21 thou in 2-3 weeks (depending if you count the week preceding the first buy) is 1-1.5thou BTC/day.
Considering that current production is "just" 3.6 thou BTC/day, it is a substantial number and it is just one fund.
I don't think that this means higher prices, but it WOULD mean higher prices if this continues unabated or increases in volume and frequency.
I am of the opinion that if you see one fund doing this, then there are more doing the same and, of course, some doing the opposite.
8714  Economy / Speculation / Re: This graph says you should get in now on: November 19, 2014, 04:23:42 PM
So, can someone translate this into how much will BTC be worth at a certain date? What are your projections every month for the next couple of years?

Buy and hodl.
prediction: >500 before 2015, >1000 before 2016

I already did that. I don't recommend anyone else to do what I did. I'm optimistic, but at least I'm taking all the risk. What I did is borrow the money from a fiat bank to buy the bitcoins. I intend to pay them off over the next 5 years. My hope is that my loan is fully paid by that time, while I still hodl close to the original number of BTC I bought.

In the worst case, I pay off the amortization from my own money, but I have already bought the bitcoins.

I'm waiting for a couple more banks to follow up with their offers.

Very rational decision. I withdrawn my pension fund in June 2013 and bought bitcoins. The rest is history.

did you at least refund part of cap gains into some sort of a pension fund or brokerage account when bitcoin was $1000-375? It would have made sense. Roth or something like this. I think Risto's "sane savings plan" also makes sense
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0
8715  Economy / Digital goods / Many Bitmain S4 coupons ($400 value) and $50 S3+C1 coupons to give on: November 19, 2014, 03:55:15 PM
I have 17 S3, 19C1 and 57 S4 coupons.
S4 coupon(s) will go for 0.02BTC ($7 for $400 savings ea), but if you want many, even less per each.
S3 coupon(s) will go for 0.01BTC (which is ~$3.5, but saves $50 ea), if you want all-also even less, make an offer.
Small BTC amounts are just a donation for my time processing your requests.
Same with C1 coupons.

PM if you want any and your offer, BTC only.
8716  Economy / Speculation / Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) on: November 18, 2014, 08:12:07 PM
It would be great if they sold all at once because we are not gong anywhere... it will only bring more money in in a frenzy to buy the bottom. Sadly they wouldn't do this.. they would rather sell slowly and keep the market from rising similar to gold... however once they are done.. buying pressure will take them over and we will rise regardless of their efforts.. actually its good they sell now and not later when btc is $10k

They have only 144k coins, so it is not that they can repeat it many times over.
I believe historically it would be looked at just as selling gold by the Bank of England at $250 is currently being looked at (with gold above $1000).
8717  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: ANTMINER S3 Discussion and Support Thread. on: November 18, 2014, 07:56:38 PM
new coupons are making me think about it  - on the fence about buying new gear to replace the S1s. A lot to think about for sure, but I really don't want to part with any more btc Smiley

EDIT: shipping kills the deal for me. Let me know if you need coupons.

If you're interested in skipping the shipping, and going with co-location, I work with a mine with a large number of S3s that are hosted, so they can be lit up immediately after payment, and as it's based out of Washington, USA the power is really stinking cheap!

I say this, because I have 14.4 TH hosted there, and have had an awesome experience with their hosting, and my house is quiet (although cooler now that winter is here), and it's way more hashrate than I could ever power off my regular home line (and even including hosting, it's still way cheaper than my PUD's price per kWh). Industrial power, a secure facility, redundant Internet, and they aren't running in my bedroom. I like it a lot. Can you tell?

how much do you pay per kw? setup fees?
8718  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: ANTMINER S3 Discussion and Support Thread. on: November 18, 2014, 07:55:31 PM
new coupons are making me think about it  - on the fence about buying new gear to replace the S1s. A lot to think about for sure, but I really don't want to part with any more btc Smiley

EDIT: shipping kills the deal for me. Let me know if you need coupons.

yes, shipping is NOT good.
Anyway, I have 19 C1, 19 S3 and 57 (wow!) S4 coupons.
Make a small donation offer for my time dealing with this in PM (up to total of 10 coupons/person) and I will get back to you.
8719  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Announcement: Bitmain launches AntMiner solution, 0.68 J/GH on chip on: November 17, 2014, 09:58:34 PM
I couldn't even give my S4 coupon away, gave up after a couple of weeks.......
Maybe this time you'll be able to sell it for 50$ each? ))

i have a 100 of them, ill give them to you for $5 each and you can make a killing on the resale

not when some OP was spreading 200 of them for free...
I have a feeling that something will come up in early december...call it a hunch.
8720  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTS] antminer S3 =>470GH with bonus on: November 17, 2014, 09:36:33 PM
any way you slice it, whether you buy private or from bitmaintech or whoever. $200 is too much for 450ghash

you don't have to buy or do buy from bitmain if you want to spend some extra $$ for the same or lower hashing speed.
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