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8721  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - April 2013 on: April 17, 2013, 04:46:49 AM


Also, could someone please tell me what the green line represents exactly?

The green line is weird on bitcoinium.  It seems to be the price rounded to the nearest whole dollar price.  See how it steps from one dollar to the next, never going part way between dollars?

Edit: you can see the effect even better here:



See how the line steps either side of the $67.5 gridline?
8722  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 17, 2013, 12:27:50 AM
Shot you an email.

Perfect, thanks.

Daily report coming soon.  Smiley

It looks like bets are still being processed:

Quote
Total of 34 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-16 05:26pm (up to block 231720)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   128265 |       3 (0.00002) |  126282 |    1980 |    1593.81 |    3842.45 |   148.53 |  -2248.63 | 241.086
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    10382 |       0 (0.00000) |    9824 |     558 |     148.40 |       0.33 |    22.55 |    148.07 |   0.223
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    10343 |       2 (0.00020) |    9859 |     482 |     154.91 |     320.10 |    14.96 |   -165.19 | 206.639
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    22672 |       5 (0.00023) |   22168 |     499 |     540.70 |     433.55 |    10.13 |    107.14 |  80.184
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23074 |       4 (0.00018) |   22599 |     471 |     829.75 |     566.40 |    22.15 |    263.35 |  68.261
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    28308 |      13 (0.00047) |   27874 |     421 |    1590.71 |    1830.57 |     1.48 |   -239.86 | 115.079
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29481 |      35 (0.00121) |   28935 |     511 |    2125.03 |    1740.09 |   116.94 |    384.94 |  81.885
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21455 |      39 (0.00186) |   20930 |     486 |    2399.25 |    1567.98 |    48.46 |    831.26 |  65.353
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26644 |     116 (0.00442) |   26114 |     414 |    6018.63 |    8661.72 |    13.27 |  -2643.09 | 143.915
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38650 |     308 (0.00813) |   37591 |     751 |    8388.36 |    6943.92 |    10.19 |   1444.44 |  82.780
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   138950 |    2110 (0.01525) |  136244 |     596 |   42503.42 |   36904.01 |     2.37 |   5599.41 |  86.826
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    26130 |     596 (0.02314) |   25155 |     379 |    7983.48 |    8577.96 |    15.15 |   -594.48 | 107.446
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    88903 |    2714 (0.03067) |   85777 |     412 |   43150.41 |   38554.09 |     9.41 |   4596.32 |  89.348
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30862 |    1407 (0.04631) |   28972 |     483 |    9845.40 |   10652.06 |    25.39 |   -806.65 | 108.193
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36858 |    2257 (0.06192) |   34191 |     410 |    7751.56 |    7535.99 |    31.41 |    215.57 |  97.219
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52452 |    4776 (0.09196) |   47161 |     515 |   16955.63 |   18496.68 |     7.53 |  -1541.05 | 109.089
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   202998 |   24822 (0.12262) |  177601 |     575 |   99940.56 |   99358.75 |   100.72 |    581.81 |  99.418
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   114995 |   20989 (0.18352) |   93383 |     623 |  178869.22 |  180378.16 |  3315.17 |  -1508.93 | 100.844
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   280990 |   68430 (0.24411) |  211894 |     666 |  376671.72 |  362975.59 |  2322.82 |  13696.13 |  96.364
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   274367 |  100593 (0.36751) |  173125 |     649 |  593129.71 |  584326.49 |  1013.47 |   8803.22 |  98.516
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1194117 |  581866 (0.48803) |  610409 |    1842 |  910318.57 |  892202.82 |  2925.65 |  18115.75 |  98.010
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   678462 |  338197 (0.49956) |  338796 |    1469 |  688182.20 |  671060.84 |  6522.53 |  17121.36 |  97.512
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   390075 |  286155 (0.73514) |  103097 |     823 |  309822.00 |  302396.88 |  6172.58 |   7425.12 |  97.603
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    88431 |   69726 (0.79416) |   18072 |     633 |   64967.41 |   63540.04 |  1187.94 |   1427.37 |  97.803
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    79982 |   67922 (0.85675) |   11357 |     703 |   82123.83 |   81330.52 |   401.00 |    793.30 |  99.034
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   127891 |  116464 (0.91617) |   10656 |     771 |   75977.21 |   74885.42 |     1.46 |   1091.78 |  98.563
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21404 |   19464 (0.97903) |     417 |    1523 |   24960.13 |   24541.67 |   240.82 |    418.46 |  98.323
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4045164 | 1654079           | 2371734 |   19351 |  828422.94 |  814106.53 |   298.01 |  14316.41 |  98.272
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   121977 |   54934           |   66749 |     294 | 2728519.23 | 2669518.67 | 24406.21 |  59000.55 |  97.838
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4167141 | 1709013           | 2438483 |   19645 | 3556942.17 | 3483625.20 | 24704.22 |  73316.97 |  97.939
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73316.97153889 BTC (2.061%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3387.94657500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       69929.02496389 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit:            69929.02496389 BTC (1.966%)
Profit This Month:           2086.09839627 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13388152  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7635178  (57.0%)
Blockchain MB:   5832.5  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3150.8  (54.0%)



8723  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 17, 2013, 12:09:03 AM
Can anyone get me a copy of http://www.satoshidice.com/bet-options.php or have an old copy?  My script doesn't work without it, and the site isn't responding for me.

Shot you an email.

Perfect, thanks.

Daily report coming soon.  Smiley
8724  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Shit... Sent my coins to satoshi dice from a green address on: April 17, 2013, 12:02:56 AM
yeah I know what it is... just don't know what will happen to them

Anything satoshidice returns to you now belongs to Mt.Gox.
How do I find out if they returned anything?

I contacted Mt. Gox support but they say bitcoin transactions are irreversible and to contact satoshi dice.

No idea how to contact them there's no email on the site

SatoshiDice seems to be down today.

But if you win the bet, they'll send your winnings to MtGox's green address (assuming that's the green address you sent from).  SatoshiDice can't be expected to reimburse you, since Gox will be the ones with your winnings.

Gox support is right that the transaction (SDICE -> Gox) is irreversible, but that's why they (Gox) should give you the winnings.

If you can find the transaction ID of your bet, put it in place of XXX here:
  http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=XXX
to find out whether you won or not, and also to find the txid of the payout from SDICE to Gox.
8725  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 16, 2013, 11:59:03 PM
Can anyone get me a copy of http://www.satoshidice.com/bet-options.php or have an old copy?  My script doesn't work without it, and the site isn't responding for me.
8726  Economy / Gambling / Re: 80 BTC bet between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?) on: April 16, 2013, 10:40:03 PM
IMO trusted users like dooglus should make a small % acting as escrow.  could btc-address could easily add functionality to send a small % to the escrow agent once the bet was settled?   most times the escrow would automatically make the small commish, occasionally a big fiasco would arise and a real determination would need to be made.  That is where the escrow earns all those small %'s over time IMO.

Perhaps a website could be set up which issues escrow codes automatically once two people agree on a contract.  You both get to edit the contract on the site, and once you both agree, it gives you your escrow codes, one each, and keeps a copy of the codes, GPG encrypted to my private key.  So even if someone gains unauthorised access to the site's database, they don't get to see the escrow codes.

That should allow for fully automatic escrowed betting (and trading of all kinds) where I only have to get involved in the event of a dispute.
8727  Economy / Securities / Re: S.DICE - SatoshiDICE 100% Dividend-Paying Asset on MPEx on: April 16, 2013, 10:22:10 PM
This is a pretty bizarre bet... any reason for you to believe such a thing?

Is this just a coincidence?

http://www.downforeveryoneorjustme.com/www.satoshidice.com



It's been down for several hours now.
8728  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 16, 2013, 10:17:52 PM
What do you mean with 'they take the same swings in value'?

I agree that when comparing bitcoin as an investment to sdice as an investment, no need to convert in USD. Is that what you mean?

I think so.

If you have some US dollars and are considering investing in Apple stock, you don't take the price of oil into account (unless you're also considering investing in oil).

In the same way if you have Bitcoin and are considering investing in SDICE, you don't take the price of US dollars into account (unless you're also considering investing in fiat).
8729  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: April 16, 2013, 06:51:48 PM
Site and betting completely down right now?

The script I run each day to generate the statistical report is looping on this:

Quote
* opening json page http://www.satoshidice.com/bet-options.php

Can't get list of available bets.

and has been for an hour or more.
8730  Economy / Gambling / Re: 80 BTC bet between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?) on: April 16, 2013, 06:48:10 PM
Lol, I would never try to collect on something like that.  It's obvious that the intention is for a bet between CrazyBlane and Micon, and doesn't involve me at all.  But sure, it's probably better to get all ducks in a row.

Yeah, I was mostly just trying to be funny.  I think the intention is pretty clear.
8731  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 16, 2013, 05:57:22 PM
This thread needs a bit more entertainment content- but this is absolutely no criticism of your sterling work, dooglus! Smiley

Heh.  None taken.

I do think the 'poof, it's gone' at the end was a different guy though.  The one who lost >300 BTC on <48k.
8732  Economy / Gambling / Re: Casinobit - LIVE ROULETTE - No Registration - FREE BTC on: April 16, 2013, 05:54:41 PM
We will also add some more info such as the dealers name and signals such as LAST BETS and NO MORE BETS which we receive server side. We will have to introduce outside players which are not familiar with the bitcoin economy to bitcoin in order to have everything working.

I find it fascinating watching your roulette video feed.  I think there might be something wrong with me.  I'm like some kind of voyeur, only with gambling instead of sex.
8733  Economy / Gambling / Re: 80 BTC bet between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?) on: April 16, 2013, 05:47:01 PM
mrb: I can provide an escrow code if you're happy for me to escrow the bet.  PM me your email address and (optionally) your GPG public key.

I've sent escrow codes to Micon and mrb.

I'll quote the terms of the recent bets here as a hedge against future shenanigans:

...
BFL will ship out at least 3 ASIC mining devices capable of at least 150MH/s per watt to at least 3 customers (at least 1 device per customer) who post pix & verify hashrate by 12:01am EST 7/1.  No BFL-employee or anyone that has been to BFL labs personally to settle the 3 customers pix & hashrate.  If BFL ships a device that does not meet the power specification, but then does ship out at least 3 ASIC mining devices meeting the above criteria before the deadline, then SgtSpike wins the bet.
...

I would like to move forward on our measly 5 BTC bet with the same terms written above. Are we using Escrow?

I'm assuming we replace 'SgtSpike' with 'CrazyBlane' or 'mrb' in the quoted paragraph.  Having SgtSpike win those 2 bets on a technicality would suck.  Smiley
8734  Economy / Gambling / Re: bitZino - Bitcoin Casino - 10 million hands played! on: April 16, 2013, 06:18:33 AM
Well you can still only double down once, but you can do it an any time. You also get paid more for having 6-7-8 (even more when suited), 5, 6, or 7 card 21, dont have to wait to push the dealer when you get 21, oh, and there are no 10's in the deck. Literally the 10 card, other face cards are still in play as 10.

I was reading about it here where it says:

Quote
In some casinos, players may double double down, or redouble up to two times after doubling down. For example: The player bets one unit and is dealt 2-3, giving a hand total of 5; the dealer is showing a 6. The player doubles the first time and draws a 3. The hand total is now 8 and the total amount wagered is two units. The player doubles a second time and draws a 3. The hand total is now 11 and the total amount wagered is four units. When the player doubles a third time on 11, the total amount wagered will be eight units. Redoubling is a profoundly player-advantageous rule, when optimally executed.
8735  Economy / Gambling / Re: 80 BTC bet between Micon and mrb (are BFL ASICs real?) on: April 16, 2013, 06:11:46 AM
Casascius recently drew my attention to this site:

    http://www.bitescrow.org/

It implements his escrow system in an offline web page so you don't need to mess with Mono or .NET.

Micon, I am willing to put up a bet on the same terms as SgtSpike's last bet, with 100 BTC each.

let's get a new set of escrow codes and you have a bet

mrb: I can provide an escrow code if you're happy for me to escrow the bet.  PM me your email address and (optionally) your GPG public key.
8736  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 16, 2013, 06:05:34 AM
It looks like we have a whale playing.  Check out the slope of the red line over the last couple of days.  He seems to switch addresses.  1KYS3HyeDUt467hnRpzF7WHyvgr861MnL4 and then 12N3m1zR6dkovEZ8fP9LkZkbgtKVX6iGwd.

See also this previously-unseen address:

Quote
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <48000 231540 e62cc0f45f9fffef:0  1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <48000 231540 88027c2479b0743c:0  1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET    10.00000000 WIN      3.37565333
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <60000 231540 bdf7b00bd74da64a:0  1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET   100.00000000 WIN      7.10522666
Tue Apr 16 00:15:55 2013 <60000 231540 161341214afd56ce:0  1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET    93.00000000 WIN      6.60786080
Tue Apr 16 01:23:26 2013 <48000 231552 203afff224e2c108:0  1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET   213.00000000 WIN     71.90141600
Tue Apr 16 01:54:23 2013 <48000 231563 a82e3c26d2b59778:0  1Eq9eBs8sfTbzKxk2oHLBRhHP4n5nmVJmQ BET   311.00000000 LOSE  -309.44500000
8737  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 16, 2013, 05:56:00 AM
Quote
Total of 53 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Apr-15 10:50pm (up to block 231594)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   127662 |       3 (0.00002) |  125691 |    1968 |    1586.63 |    3842.41 |   148.50 |  -2255.77 | 242.174
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    10371 |       0 (0.00000) |    9813 |     558 |     148.26 |       0.33 |    22.55 |    147.93 |   0.223
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     9833 |       1 (0.00011) |    9350 |     482 |     149.34 |     160.17 |    14.96 |    -10.82 | 107.252
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    22654 |       5 (0.00023) |   22150 |     499 |     540.34 |     433.55 |    10.13 |    106.79 |  80.236
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    23039 |       4 (0.00018) |   22564 |     471 |     829.11 |     566.40 |    22.15 |    262.71 |  68.314
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    28233 |      13 (0.00047) |   27799 |     421 |    1589.52 |    1830.57 |     1.48 |   -241.04 | 115.165
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    29309 |      35 (0.00122) |   28764 |     510 |    2122.63 |    1740.07 |   116.94 |    382.55 |  81.977
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    21289 |      38 (0.00183) |   20765 |     486 |    2397.36 |    1562.98 |    48.46 |    834.38 |  65.196
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    26453 |     114 (0.00438) |   25925 |     414 |    6016.53 |    8656.22 |    13.27 |  -2639.68 | 143.874
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    38405 |     305 (0.00810) |   37352 |     748 |    8380.03 |    6938.88 |    10.18 |   1441.15 |  82.803
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   138598 |    2101 (0.01522) |  135903 |     594 |   42496.02 |   36890.92 |     2.36 |   5605.10 |  86.810
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25945 |     595 (0.02327) |   24974 |     376 |    7977.74 |    8575.80 |    15.15 |   -598.05 | 107.497
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    88394 |    2702 (0.03071) |   85280 |     412 |   43139.27 |   38547.21 |     9.41 |   4592.06 |  89.355
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    30710 |    1403 (0.04641) |   28826 |     481 |    9839.12 |   10648.34 |    25.38 |   -809.21 | 108.224
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    36700 |    2252 (0.06205) |   34039 |     409 |    7743.68 |    7532.80 |    31.41 |    210.88 |  97.277
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    52128 |    4739 (0.09181) |   46877 |     512 |   16943.89 |   18482.96 |     7.51 |  -1539.07 | 109.083
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   202474 |   24754 (0.12260) |  177152 |     568 |   99903.82 |   99327.95 |   100.71 |    575.86 |  99.424
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   114214 |   20851 (0.18356) |   92742 |     621 |  178830.61 |  180334.46 |  3315.16 |  -1503.85 | 100.841
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   280216 |   68261 (0.24417) |  211298 |     657 |  376394.37 |  362647.74 |  2322.80 |  13746.63 |  96.348
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   273012 |  100110 (0.36756) |  172255 |     647 |  593006.75 |  584182.71 |  1013.46 |   8824.03 |  98.512
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1192670 |  581165 (0.48803) |  609670 |    1835 |  909908.28 |  891821.69 |  2925.63 |  18086.59 |  98.012
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   676896 |  337417 (0.49955) |  338030 |    1449 |  687558.91 |  670366.54 |  6522.44 |  17192.36 |  97.500
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   388700 |  285163 (0.73517) |  102722 |     815 |  309716.22 |  302291.85 |  6172.55 |   7424.37 |  97.603
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    88170 |   69520 (0.79416) |   18019 |     631 |   64944.55 |   63521.31 |  1187.93 |   1423.23 |  97.809
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    79768 |   67744 (0.85677) |   11325 |     699 |   82089.21 |   81299.25 |   400.97 |    789.95 |  99.038
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   127125 |  115770 (0.91617) |   10593 |     762 |   75884.40 |   74799.67 |     1.41 |   1084.73 |  98.571
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    21047 |   19138 (0.97923) |     406 |    1503 |   24946.57 |   24528.43 |   240.80 |    418.13 |  98.324
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4032121 | 1649308           | 2363579 |   19234 |  827361.64 |  812924.53 |   297.62 |  14437.11 |  98.255
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   121894 |   54895           |   66705 |     294 | 2727721.67 | 2668606.79 | 24406.21 |  59114.87 |  97.833
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4154015 | 1704203           | 2430284 |   19528 | 3555083.31 | 3481531.33 | 24703.84 |  73551.98 |  97.931
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      73551.98608776 BTC (2.069%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3374.17117500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       70177.81491276 BTC (1.974%)
Pending Liabilities:            1.64050944 BTC
Final SD Profit:            70176.17440332 BTC (1.974%)
Profit This Month:           2333.24783570 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 13338587  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7611534  (57.1%)
Blockchain MB:   5810.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3141.1  (54.1%)



8738  Economy / Gambling / Re: Casinobit - LIVE ROULETTE - No Registration - FREE BTC on: April 16, 2013, 04:55:55 AM
At the moment any bet which is more than 50USD will take 1 confirmation, then 2 confirmations for 200USD+ and an additional confirmation for every 300 from there, up to a maximum of 4 confirmations.

Maybe it would make more sense to allow players to keep a balance "on site" so they can play in real time.  If I was playing with large amounts of money I'd for sure want to know which spin my bet was riding on before the spin happened.
8739  Economy / Gambling / Re: bitZino - Bitcoin Casino - 10 million hands played! on: April 16, 2013, 04:36:58 AM
Hell yeah! Honestly, I probably thought it was Spanish because that is all I really play when I go to the casino

Interesting.  That's actually the version of blackjack I was taught by my grandfather when I was about 5.  I always thought he was just confused about how to play blackjack but it turns out there really is a game where a 5 card 21 is worth more than a regular 21, and you can double-down 3 times in a row.  Smiley
8740  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis on: April 16, 2013, 03:38:16 AM
What matters more to me is the ultra-steady 1.9% edge line because that's indicative of longer term profits and this month - the last few days in particular- have shown it getting pretty close to flat.

Can someone remind me why we care about the 1.9% margin? I mean, if I wanted to make 1.9%, on average, for a term of say one year, then I might as well keep my fiat in the bank and not assume the risks associated with the stock price or SD being out-competed. Not to mention the risk associated with BTC/USD rate that apparently influences SD share price.

The thing is, SDICE doesn't pay 1.9% per year, it pays 1.9% per bet, on average.

So far, they've been running for less than a year, and have taken around 3.6 million BTC in bets.

The share price is somewhere around 0.00368, and there are 100 million shares.

That means their market cap is around 360k BTC.

So in less than a year, they've taken 10 times their market cap in bets, and so are expected to have profited about 19% of their market cap, not 1.9%.

Does your bank pay 19% per year?
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