Coming weekend are already the last two games of the series. The time passed quickly again. Somehow it doesn't look good for me in this series and I only got 4 points. Next series I also play with poker cards and not with pokemon cards. Maybe it'll work out better.  i'm still in it---barely holding onto a spot, tied for 8th with @Improved. i definitely need some points this weekend to avoid getting bumped off. it's not over until it's over. two strong finishes (top 3?) and you can still make it.  Im just wondering this, is it possible to add some sort of point for knocking out player in the 3rd series later ( Provided that we have the 3rd series ). So instead of trying to get into top ten to get points, some player could also be getting it after they knock someone out. Something like half point or for each person knocked out (?) Might trigger some big action from the start of the game I guess or perhaps putting up some point bounty on random person for more points, probably could make the game much more interesting. I am not sure if this is possible so yeah any other thoughts ?? feel free to revive the discussion here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5247993.0i think everyone got exhausted with trying to figure out the perfect points system. i'm open to KOs for points, although i find this common situation frustrating: player A takes most of player B's stack, then on a subsequent hand, player C finishes him off. player C gets the points of course, but player A is really the one who should be rewarded. |
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^^^ There is no chance that Biden will fall short of the required number of primary delegates. Out of the 2,704 delegates declared so far he has got 1566. And only two candidates remain in the race - Biden and Tulsi Gabbard. If the outstanding primary elections go ahead as planned, then I expect Biden to win at least 99% of the remaining delegates. IMO, he'll end up at somewhere around 2,800.
tulsi gabbard dropped out 2 months ago. biden won't win 99% of the remaining delegates. even though bernie sanders dropped out in early april, he's still been getting ~30% of the delegates in the subsequent primaries. at this rate, it still won't be enough to prevent biden from clinching it before the DNC. sanders needs to start picking up more delegates. in terms of game theory, if sentiment among democrats turns strongly against biden with big primaries like pennsylvania, new york, and new jersey still to be decided, then that creates incentives to vote sanders, to keep biden from winning the nomination outright. |
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If it's an all-out crackdown on it, then it's simply game over.
i asked my russian friends about this yesterday. they both laughed. let's cross this bridge when we come to it...... You went from this: a ban on bitcoin would be like a ban on gold---unenforceable, and would make the government look very impotent.
to this cool, lemme know when russia bans bitcoin. they've been threatening to do it for 6+ years.
i'm saying both. a ban cannot be enforced and would be widely violated. the government has suggested as much. there are also no signs that they'll actually pass this proposal. every russian crypto bill to date has been squashed. what makes you think this time is different? |
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Generally if heads-up post flop - if I am in position and was the preflop aggressor I do think of any leadout by the OOP player to be a "donk lead". okay, thanks for clarifying. i always thought a donk bet implied a small bet. I see this as a couple things , stealing my chance to bluff, as a probe possibly to see if I raise, an attempt to steal the pot on a board I may have missed, or they hit and are worried of getting pushed off. I don't often give it a lot of credit, especially if I have top pair. I just naturally assume they would rather go with a check call/check raise scenario, but if I miss I often have to let it go whether I believe them or not. you don't often give it credit---is that based on actual showdowns? gut feeling? i guess i just don't understand where these assumptions come from, or why a 70% pot bet would be perceived as weaker than a check. the way i saw it, AQ beats most of your range there, but it was still only top pair with 2 hearts on the flop, straight draws on the turn. i don't make a huge distinction about who the preflop raiser is here---too many people are checking behind. slow playing top pair on a wet board seems like an awesome way to flush equity down the toilet. tbh i'm betting AAA there too. i don't give people free cards when there are strong draws on the board. I feel I also would have played this the same with AK in my hand. I would call down and then go for a re-raise on the turn if they put out another bet can't fold top pair, rag kicker---noted.  I expect more fiction and subterfuge in poker, and I should remember sometimes it will be exactly what it looks like. with 14bbs there aren't many options. i can either 3bet (then stack off if you raise or jam any flop if you call).....or i can see a flop with 12bbs behind. my flatting range is very strong here. if i wanted to steal i would have just jammed preflop. that's why i find this all so confusing. I had around 28BB [HJ] Kd8d, they had 13BB [SB] I make it 2.22BB they call
Flop is AcKh9c
SB bets 3.7BB into a ~6.5BB pot I fold out. They show 33 in showdown against the blinded out shortstack
Here I think it was easier to fold out because I didn't block some any pair holdings. I would have rather not seen the runout.
that's a very odd spot for that move. still, i generally lose money when i call down large bets with rag kickers and second pairs. that's the long and short of it. |
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I did not follow the primaries that closely and I have to admit that I am not an expert in US politics at all but isn't it already (at least inofficially) settled that Joe Biden will be the candidate of the Democrats? Does Cuomo, to have an actual chance, have to run as an independent candidate?
it wouldn't be as an independent candidate. cuomo is a democrat, plus no third party has a chance in hell of winning. cuomo's only shot is via a brokered democratic national convention. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_conventionto win the democratic nomination outright, biden needs 1991 delegates. he only has 1566. if he doesn't win the nomination outright and he doesn't get a majority of delegate votes in the first voting round at the DNC, then the convention would be brokered. delegates can then switch their allegiances in the next round of voting, which could result in a nominee besides biden. to give some perspective on the likelihood, there has not been a brokered convention since 1952 (eisenhower), and the last conventions that "came close" were in the early 1980s. at these odds, gavin newsom is a more interesting play to me than cuomo. both are extreme long shots. |
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on the flop: set vs set vs nut flush draw.   at this point in the tourney, there was no way i was folding a flopped set. anyone flatting preflop with 89 seemed unlikely and i figured @Trofo was calling on the flush draw, so i was willing to gamble on a triple up. i had put @morvillz7z on an overpair (JJ+) or maybe AT, not a superior set. these are the type of hands that make people say poker rooms are rigged for action. bad weekend for me at the tables! |
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Yeah I wanted to type out more in chat in the moment to give a clearer picture of my thought process which wasn't great. Going into it you legitimately could have had anything, from 22+(not sure your threshold for set mining), ATo+, AXs 56s+, 9Toff+ and a massive amount of broadway combos suited and unsuited. It was a small blind flat against a 2BB raise I think, pre-flop this range is huge. I can't remember if this is before or after I went from 2.5x to 2x.
Taking the lead OOP to me said you had something but were worried of being pushed off. I thought I was making a more exploitative play here, and I went more with my reasoning than with reason. If that makes sense. The jam on the turn then made me wonder, and I considered folding out but it nagged me that this line didn't make sense if you were strong. Why make bets to scare me away if he has it? Does he put me on just peeling for the flush draw,? Is he trying to push me off with his flush draw?? Is this grabbing max value and I misunderstood the leadout? maybe I'm definitely capable of calling light.
I also kept having our previous conversations going through my mind, that you could have had a pocketpair that now had an overcard on the board. Of course all of this was only momentary flashes of though that were all competing. If I had a shorter stack I would have had to fold out but as I said with my SPR and what I figured my odds of needing around 30% that I was okay with the gamble. I would have thought about it a lot less with other players.
Do I think this was an overall good play on my part. No. Not necessarily for the call down against most people; but the donk lead really f's me up. hmmm, but there was never any donk bet. on the flop, it was a 1000 chip bet into a 1425 chip pot. on the turn, it was a 2466 chip shove into a 3425 chip pot. i can understand the preflop range you put me on, although tbh with only 14bbs preflop my range is definitely stronger than that. i can sort of understand the flop call too, to see if i checked the turn. but calling the shove on the turn in position? i don't get it. i'm just curious what actual range you put me on at that point where a call would seem profitable. I called down 3 streets later on in almost the exact same situation. Only I had second pair, and they had it. I guess when I see a donk lead that is out of character I almost never assume it is a tier1 hand, on that street. Something I have to change about my game for sure. what's your definition of a "donk lead"? any time someone ever calls you OOP and bets postflop, regardless of bet sizing? if you as a rule never respect the bettor there it sounds kinda leaky. The comments about having you maybe outkicked was more in regards to if you had an AX, which there are fewer combos available because I hold an A, but it wasn't the only holding you might have had. It was more a possibility if you did hold an A, because again the flat call. Maybe you did have A4s A3s, and are now open ended and top pair. These are the sorts of hands I expect an OOP lead most of time. here is another way to put it. once you saw the A on the flop, you had already decided you weren't going to fold no matter what? Can I ask though what were you wanting to achieve with your betsizing and leadouts? I feel you got the desired result I just sat on a horseshoe yesterday. Did you want the max value doubleup or where you looking for a fold from me on the turn?
i was betting for value. i didn't want to give you the opportunity to check behind the flop, especially with the heart draw on the board. the flop call screamed weak ace to me so i shoved for value. i'm not much for slow playing TP2K. |
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You haven't lived in a dictatorship, you don't know that feeling when you go to bed and you ask yourself if you did something that might get you arrested that night. lol, that sounds like a great reason to fearmonger about russia banning bitcoin. Trust me, I've lived in a communist dictatorship, you can ban EVERYTHING! cool, lemme know when russia bans bitcoin. they've been threatening to do it for 6+ years. i'm sure their intention was to quietly watch adoption go exponential for many years, and then try to ban it. Yeah, bitcoin blogs at their best, twisting words, this is the actual text “If a person who owns, conditionally, bitcoins, completes his transaction in a jurisdiction that does not prohibit this, we are unlikely to be able to limit it to this.” you glossed over this: At the same time, the head of the legal department of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation noted that the authorities would not prohibit Russian citizens from buying cryptocurrency and own it. Moreover, he acknowledged that this was not possible from a practical point of view. the best they can do is ban exchanges.
“If a person who owns, conditionally, bitcoins, completes his transaction in a jurisdiction that does not prohibit this, we are unlikely to be able to limit it to this.” the implication is while they can restrict bitcoin exchanges in russia, they cannot stop russians from buying and owning bitcoins, nor will they try. the chinese are an excellent example of a population that doesn't give a fuck about their totalitarian government's restrictions on bitcoin, or any sort of capital restrictions at all for that matter. when exchanges got banned, the OTC market exploded and chinese traders just moved to hong kong and singapore based exchanges. the russians i know couldn't give one fuck what their government says about bitcoin either. this isn't 1970s soviet union anymore. it's the same situation as china. the PBOC threatened to ban bitcoin in china dozens of times over many years (just like the bank of russia) but never actually did. they can't and they know they would look completely powerless if they tried. that's the last thing authoritarians want. i don't see any indication that russia is closer to banning bitcoin than it was in 2014. if anything, the opposite. but you can keep fearmongering if you'd like...... |
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i have a feeling too many russian political elites are already invested in bitcoin or bitcoin infrastructure to allow this sort of bill to pass. considering the shaky crude oil market and their dependence on it, russia also needs to consider the tax revenues and diversification that regulated crypto mining and trading could bring.
It's not that simple, we're talking about basically a dictatorship here It is normal for any dictator and his elite to seek any kind of revenue from everything, from faking goods, selling counterfeit currency, involving in smuggling, everything till...anyone dealing with this is seen as gathering too much power and the thing is considered to be dangerous to the foundation of the party and terminated. If Putin decides this thing could give too much power to somebody and be outside its total control it's game over! watch this snippet from an interview with putin: https://twitter.com/APompliano/status/1255160696461037574putin understands very well that russia can't control bitcoin. the central bank also recently acknowledged that a ban is actually impossible: https://beincrypto.com/russian-central-bank-admits-it-cant-ban-bitcoin/a ban on bitcoin would be like a ban on gold---unenforceable, and would make the government look very impotent. these conflicting bills that keep being proposed are IMO more about political posturing and power brokering than an actual ban. |
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It's all good, but you can't really win anything with these games. Here, it's like in other sports. The bigger the tournament, the more unrealistic for the bettors to make $$
For example. Finals, semi-finals of the UEFA champions league, FIFA world CUP.
At such matches nobody wins. Simple. It's just the excitement and entertainment at this level
In Dota International same..
so what's your angle as a bettor? which e-sports---or i guess more importantly what levels of competition and odds---do you find worth betting on? i'm finding some interesting plays with good odds on lower tier tournaments. (~major for SC2/brood wars, minor for dota 2, re liquipedia tier) i'm gonna try a strategy where i focus on high variance matches with long odds where i think books are underpricing underdogs. i've been doing a lot of research the last couple days and this seems somewhat common. |
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i'm more worried about match fixing in a premier dota 2 league w/ $215k on the line (where books are taking much bigger bets) than a minor SC2 league w/ $3500 in total prizes.
1 of 2 bets came through and paid out more than 5:1. i'm gonna see if i can parlay this few mBTC into something on another 5-6 matches tonight.
what e-sports do you bet on?
Maybe you are right but I always think that top teams make enough money just by competing while lower tiers teams make money however they can. isn't the Newbee case an example of the opposite? Anyway, if you bet on underdogs you even have an edge if the game is fixed so then you don't care about that. true, that's an angle i hadn't even considered! anyway i'm just dipping my toes in---never been a huge bettor and pretty ignorant about e-sports. i am just surprised how long some of the odds are given what occur to me as relatively high variance matches. eg an underdog won > 1 in 3 past matches against the favorite but the book has him at almost 6:1. Rest of the games I don't touch since I have a rule to bet only on the games I can watch live.
is that for the sake of integrity? do you do live betting? |
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I will no longer participate in this event. JTisCuban really aggravated the fuck outta me today and ran that mouth just a bit too much. I'd rather play casually, then have to deal with his donk mouth. Yes I said that correctly, DONK. Dude gets AA and turns into a pro. I'm ok with a little trash talk, but this guy takes it to the extreme.
Sorry to hear that man, I hope you will change your mind, you will be missed if this really was your last participation. +1. also, congrats on getting married @yahoo. this should be a time to celebrate. the next beer is on me. if you want to play again i'll cover your next buy-in. Curious does SWC not have a chat block?? I rarely watch the chat on my other site but am not sure if you can just mute certain players on SWC.
in the software version you can right click any player and mute them. you can also go to options > settings > chat settings and mute all player chat. i'm not sure what options are available in the browser version. |
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alright @Steamtyme, i gotta ask. what actual range did you put me on here? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5245365.msg54487465#msg54487465you mentioned in the chat you thought you had me out-kicked, and you said in the other thread "with top pair shit kicker I wasn't folding out". so i'm OOP double barreling/shoving and you thought my range was limited to A3/A4 and bluffs? nobody is respecting my bets at all lately. i wonder why. normally this would be great because i'm mostly TAG but i've been facing quite an awful run of variance the last few weeks. lots of 70-30 to 80-20 spots lost lately. this one takes the cake as far as recent beats go.  |
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SteamTyme got me too today but with me he had a K pair with A kicker
I had a KJ so I thought why not match his bet and the rest, I had to watch me going kicked out LOL.
I was very reserved all those time but on a sudden something happened and I gone ALL-IN. I really should not make this crazy move.
i was at your table. tbh you seemed quite aggressive on your final few hands. tilted? limp-calling preflop from the SB w/ KJo is fair enough, but i didn't love the OOP pot-sized bet on the flop. after betting so big you probably felt committed when he shoved in your face. i rarely make pot-sized bets. it creates situations where you risk too much and give yourself pot odds to call in marginal spots where folding is actually optimal. this is especially true when out of position (first to act). I was going up and down of 5k chips and at the end got frustrated, may be this is a reason for me to go ALL IN.
i could feel that frustration. @steamtyme sure capitalized on it. |
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What do you mean by 2/4 stakes? 2/4 cash games on SwC. Good thought on going bigger in pre-flop but I wanted to play safe coz I have lost so many AAs in the past that when I get an AA, I do not really feel very comfortable.
what do you mean by "play safe"? getting involved in a multi-way pot is the easiest way to lose with a premium pocket pair. that's why i like to bet strong and isolate preflop. let's think about the amount of risk taken preflop vs on the turn. you didn't wanna risk more than 8 chips preflop on AA, but you felt that betting 71 chips after that dangerous turn card wasn't risky? remember, they both called your flop bet so both likely connected to the board in some way (draws, top pair, second pair). |
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i went out on a brutal suckout:  i dunno how he calls with ace-rag and no draw here, but he did, and naturally he hit 2-pair on the river. running so awful lately..... |
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Wait, it wasn't a Short Deck Poker, so, you would still win if he had a flush. You know this, right? What is short Deck Poker and isn't Flush is always higher than a Three of a Kind? the question is flush vs full house. in full deck poker, if he were semi-bluffing the flush draw on the turn, he's still drawing dead and had no chance to win since you already had a boat. short deck poker: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-plus_hold_'emin short deck, flushes outrank full houses since they are harder to make. Hand history:
I doubled the BB in pre-flop, both players matched it
I chipped 15 in the flop, both matched the bet
In the turn with pot amount (71.18) and you are seeing their moves in the image above.
How are you going to handle the hand now and why?
this is 2/4 stakes, right? i like a bigger preflop raise, especially in 6max where everyone is calling loose. isolate one player and your preflop equity is huge. the flop bet is fine but you gotta know this is a dangerous board. in a 3-way pot with possible flush and straight draws and a paired board on the turn your equity isn't great. i'm checking the turn (definitely not pot betting) and likely folding to a bet + raise from the other villains. the SB is repping a monster hand. |
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just having fun with a couple underdog starcraft plays. i never thought i'd be betting on russian starcraft leagues. these are crazy times.  Good luck, if that shit ain't fixed I would be really surprised. Not so long ago Newbie got a ban for match fixing and I think that is a league/team which much more renown. i'm more worried about match fixing in a premier dota 2 league w/ $215k on the line (where books are taking much bigger bets) than a minor SC2 league w/ $3500 in total prizes. 1 of 2 bets came through and paid out more than 5:1. i'm gonna see if i can parlay this few mBTC into something on another 5-6 matches tonight. what e-sports do you bet on? |
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Never mind no fun just being a duck to be shot.
post the knockout hand. not my day so far either. no monster starting hands yet. i lost a couple hands TT vs 88, TPTK vs overpair, and split a huge pot holding the nut straight. down to 3/4 starting stack. let's see if i can turn this around....... @webtricks with the mega stack at the first break. |
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when i press "max bet" it shows 0.
Then it is probably problem with the bet itself. It is not available anymore or something like that. i see, thanks. the problem seems to have sorted itself out. for a while i wasn't able to place bets on seemingly any e-sports besides nba and football. just having fun with a couple underdog starcraft plays. i never thought i'd be betting on russian starcraft leagues. these are crazy times. |
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