US Presidential Election 2020

[pakhitheboss]

Biden is an awful candidate.

He is awful for few reasons:

1. He is old.

2. His son is corrupt (it's funny, because in our country, Ukraine, you can;t do any business without a bribe, so, if you want to deal with Ukraine, you need to bribe) and because all this scandal in Ukraine it will be hard to Biden get out of this. It's a trump card for Trump 

3. He is democrat, but as i know, major part of americans want from president another promises, than promise to feed all Mexicans.

I think he does not have what it needs to beat Trump.

If Trump can change the current situation before the elections then I think he will win. Unfortunately I doubt it will happen by that time.

[1715159197]

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[Gyfts]

Biden is an awful candidate.

He is awful for few reasons:

1. He is old.

2. His son is corrupt (it's funny, because in our country, Ukraine, you can;t do any business without a bribe, so, if you want to deal with Ukraine, you need to bribe) and because all this scandal in Ukraine it will be hard to Biden get out of this. It's a trump card for Trump 

3. He is democrat, but as i know, major part of americans want from president another promises, than promise to feed all Mexicans.

I am willing to be fair to Joe Biden on corruption because U.S. politics is plagued with corruption. Trump and Biden do corrupt things and I am not going to pretend that either candidate is above any of the shadiness in Washington. It does shock me though how some democrats are unwilling to admit that Joe Biden's dealing with Ukraine was not appropriate and was the epitome of political corruption in Washington, but somehow house democrats were able to manufacture a Biden scandal into a Trump impeachment. Truly incredible.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Biden is an awful candidate.

He is awful for few reasons:

1. He is old.

2. His son is corrupt (it's funny, because in our country, Ukraine, you can;t do any business without a bribe, so, if you want to deal with Ukraine, you need to bribe) and because all this scandal in Ukraine it will be hard to Biden get out of this. It's a trump card for Trump  

3. He is democrat, but as i know, major part of americans want from president another promises, than promise to feed all Mexicans.

I am not going to deny any of these points, especially #1 and #2. The last one is purely a political point, and it is open to interpretation according to the voter ideology.

The point that I made earlier was that Biden is the most suitable candidate among the dozen or so potential nominees we had during the Democrat primary elections. He is a much better candidate when compared to far-leftists such as Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, and he'll be able to attract a broad spectrum of support when compared to Kamala Harris or Julián Castro.

[DireWolfM14]

He is awful for few reasons:

1. He is old.

2. His son is corrupt (it's funny, because in our country, Ukraine, you can;t do any business without a bribe, so, if you want to deal with Ukraine, you need to bribe) and because all this scandal in Ukraine it will be hard to Biden get out of this. It's a trump card for Trump 

3. He is democrat, but as i know, major part of americans want from president another promises, than promise to feed all Mexicans.

1. His age is only an issue if you believe it'll affect his ability to do his job.  He's only a few years older than Trump, but Trump comes off sharp as a tack, while Biden fumbles for words.  I actually think the Democratic Party sees this as a benefit, it'll make it easier to control him.  If he picks a somewhat unknown running mate, or someone who's not a Washington insider a Biden presidency effectively makes Nancy Pelosi the most powerful person in the world.  How's that for a scary thought?  I soiled my britches just writing it.

2. Hunter's corruption is only possible because of Joe's own.  If it wasn't for Joe being Obama's VP, Hunter would be selling lawn mowers at Home Depot.  There's no way he would have gotten the contract with Burisma or the Chinese company, BHR.

3. No argument.  The Democrats haven't always been a destructive force in American politics, but if you look at American history they've been responsible for some the worst periods.  The Civil War, the great depression, the '70s gas crisis, the housing bust, Chinese espionage, the Obama administration...

Fox news just released a new poll that shows Biden isn't quite so far behind Trump:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-more-trusted-on-coronavirus-trump-on-economy

[Swordsoffreedom]

Despite the bad polls, Trump is still everyone's favorite, I don't know what kind of honey they found in Trump. I've been watching from the beginning the ruling party has always been ignored the pulling trend for presidential election. You can see that Donald Trump is standing at 2.10 where Joe Biden has managed to achieve 2.34. According to a survey by "RealClearPolitics", Biden is ahead by 5.1% on pool. Now it is a matter to be seen how neutral and fair the actual election will be!

[Captain Corporate]

 I do not trust polls ever since 2016 elections. Even on the GOP polls trump was around %1 early on, Jeb Bush was leading by a big big margin. By all means it would have been Hillary versus Bush but the more time went away the more votes Trump got and eventually dude became the nominee from GOP beating everyone else, when he had %1 chance! And not only that, dude basically was given zero chance to become president, I didn't see any chance at all, and eventually he became the president as well.

 I hate the dude, he is a moron, but I gotta give him, polls never liked him, maybe its his base do not really answer polls, maybe something else I don't know I really don't but polls never really liked him I know that. All in all we gotta wait for the election night, we don't even know how safe it will be by that time, however the situation is, it will only be decided by election and never before.

[noormcs5]

Despite the bad polls, Trump is still everyone's favorite, I don't know what kind of honey they found in Trump. I've been watching from the beginning the ruling party has always been ignored the pulling trend for presidential election. You can see that Donald Trump is standing at 2.10 where Joe Biden has managed to achieve 2.34. According to a survey by "RealClearPolitics", Biden is ahead by 5.1% on pool. Now it is a matter to be seen how neutral and fair the actual election will be!

So you mean that if trump wins the next election, the election will not be fair and trump will manipulate the result. I don't think it is easy to change the election results in USA and whoever wins the election, it will be fair.
Do you think that those who elected for the trump in the past elections will again vote for him ?

[iTradeChips]

President Trump will have a hard time competing with Joe Biden, that is what I think. Although Trump has already shows that he was capable in the last presidential election and all those who made a prediction were wrong about the way he is popular with Americans. I still think that many Americans will want him and he would still win any popularity contests the opposition would pit against him.

The pandemic right now is the worst thing that the United States is facing right now and that would also affect American voters which might switch sides because of what they perceived as a lack of preparation from the governments part and that because of the high risk now and many people are getting sick by the minute. Many, I think will switch sides because of the pandemic and Trump needs to prepare for that backlash. As for me though I will try to balance it and see who is still winnable based on the handling of the pandemic. I will solely based this on the pandemic.

[figmentofmyass]

the odds of a trump victory (47%) dropped 2% since i last checked. biden (42%) did not pick those points up though. https://odds.watch/trump-2020

The problem is that the Democrats were resting on the success of Obama. In his second term they should've already started to promote and strengthen his successor. But what were they doing since then?!

obama was essentially a neoconservative. the fanfare around him among liberals was largely based on the contrast to GWB and him being black. his entire legacy is one of selling out poor and working people to giant corporations and wall street.

democratic power brokers were grooming hillary clinton to be his successor, but they underestimated 1. how publicly detestable she truly was, 2. how quickly obama/clinton style neoconservatism was falling out of public favor, and 3. how destructive and insulting obama's economic policies were for the working class. remember, obama was ushered in as a populist liberal who was supposed to indict wall street for causing the 2008 collapse and tilt things back in favor of ordinary americans. he did the opposite. by the time he was leaving office, a strong majority of americans wanted an anti-elitist populist (like trump) in office, not an elitist neocon like hillary clinton.

this is where the fracture between the leftist/sanders wing and the centrist/biden wing comes in. the sanders wing taps into america's populist anger, but democratic fundraisers and power brokers know the leftists are too great of a threat to the big banks and other powerful corporate interests to be allowed a seat at the table.

IMO, the centrist democrats would rather lose this election to trump and retake control in 4 years rather than let the sanders wing take over. in some sense that may explain why they backed such a dud like biden in the first place, knowing the left lacked enough momentum to win the primaries. 4 more years of trump---especially if they are characterized by fiscal austerity---and then obama-like centrism becomes palatable again for centrist leaning conservatives and the lesser of two evils for disenfranchised progressives.

[johhnyUA]

1. His age is only an issue if you believe it'll affect his ability to do his job.  He's only a few years older than Trump, but Trump comes off sharp as a tack, while Biden fumbles for words.  I actually think the Democratic Party sees this as a benefit, it'll make it easier to control him.  If he picks a somewhat unknown running mate, or someone who's not a Washington insider a Biden presidency effectively makes Nancy Pelosi the most powerful person in the world.  How's that for a scary thought?  I soiled my britches just writing it.

2. Hunter's corruption is only possible because of Joe's own.  If it wasn't for Joe being Obama's VP, Hunter would be selling lawn mowers at Home Depot.  There's no way he would have gotten the contract with Burisma or the Chinese company, BHR.

3. No argument.  The Democrats haven't always been a destructive force in American politics, but if you look at American history they've been responsible for some the worst periods.  The Civil War, the great depression, the '70s gas crisis, the housing bust, Chinese espionage, the Obama administration...

Fox news just released a new poll that shows Biden isn't quite so far behind Trump:
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-biden-more-trusted-on-coronavirus-trump-on-economy

1. Yep, really. I thought Trump was younger enough (something like 60 years old0 but he is old man too. 73 years old, and Biden is 77.

2. But he fact still valid

3. Trump is really good with his politics to decreasing taxes, returning manufacturers and factories to USA and so on. For things, which will directly affect all people in USA, of course, will affect with good. But democrats and socialists (there enough socialists in USA Congress for now) trying to do opposite things, in fact, really opposite. Increasing taxes, creating problems for business and of course, accepting more and more migrants (which is not bad but also not good). And as i know, middle class is for Trump (because as i said above, he has made their lives better)

[Swordsoffreedom]

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So you mean that if trump wins the next election, the election will not be fair and trump will manipulate the result. I don't think it is easy to change the election results in USA and whoever wins the election, it will be fair.

I don't know that! but I didn't believe the Trump Administration, can you remember the "2016 campaign promises" I can't believe his words any more.

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Do you think that those who elected for the trump in the past elections will again vote for him ?

In fact, I don't think they would make the same mistake of re-electing him if there was a fair election but look at the recent pool I can't figure it out how each time he gained very close result, who are behind on this!

[noormcs5]

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So you mean that if trump wins the next election, the election will not be fair and trump will manipulate the result. I don't think it is easy to change the election results in USA and whoever wins the election, it will be fair.

I don't know that! but I didn't believe the Trump Administration, can you remember the "2016 campaign promises" I can't believe his words any more.

~
Do you think that those who elected for the trump in the past elections will again vote for him ?

In fact, I don't think they would make the same mistake of re-electing him if there was a fair election but look at the recent pool I can't figure it out how each time he gained very close result, who are behind on this!

Maybe the voters and fans of Trump are the ones who are sincere with him and they do not change the parties. Incipite of all the decision made by trump in all these years, they still love him and vote for him. That's the only reason that we see trump with good votes in all the surveys conducted.

[Swordsoffreedom]

~
Do you think that those who elected for the trump in the past elections will again vote for him ?

In fact, I don't think they would make the same mistake of re-electing him if there was a fair election but look at the recent pool I can't figure it out how each time he gained very close result, who are behind on this!

Maybe the voters and fans of Trump are the ones who are sincere with him and they do not change the parties. Incipite of all the decision made by trump in all these years, they still love him and vote for him. That's the only reason that we see trump with good votes in all the surveys conducted.

I agree with you. Trump has a separate fan base and there is no doubt that is huge. No matter how bad decision he made, I don't think his fan base will diminish. But what about COVID-19! Do people see any effective role in controlling it? Don't you think coronavirus outbreak can change all the equation. If the condition of USA becomes too bad for Covid-19 and they failed to control its spread, then I think it will have a huge effect on the next election, keep calm and see what will happens.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Despite the bad polls, Trump is still everyone's favorite, I don't know what kind of honey they found in Trump. I've been watching from the beginning the ruling party has always been ignored the pulling trend for presidential election. You can see that Donald Trump is standing at 2.10 where Joe Biden has managed to achieve 2.34. According to a survey by "RealClearPolitics", Biden is ahead by 5.1% on pool. Now it is a matter to be seen how neutral and fair the actual election will be!

If Trump is ahead, that's because of two reasons. First of all, in 2016 almost all of the polls under-estimated his support. And that too by a large margin. And secondly, the outcome of the US election is entirely dependent on the results from less than 10 states (out of a total of 50). The remaining states are either deep-blue or deep-red, where no one is going to campaign.

[STT]

I wake up to see Biden campaign lampooning his own chances by going full Anakin Skywalker and declaring you are either for me or against me.   Very not Obama-esche talk and way too heavy footed, whatever he meant he stepped on some toes stupidly.   I blame his campaign more then I blame the doofus himself because they let him on the air to say that, all he should really do is keep to the script and react to every giant fail Trump issues on a regular basis.   Just follow the breadcrumbs and he'll find himself in the white house whether he deserves it or not, theres no other candidate really but say silly things and people will look around for more or obviously the precedent is with Trump.
   Hope and dreams thats all he has to sell as per every other politician, there's a playbook for this game and his maverick moves is the reason Democratic party hesitated to ever put him forward.

Quit wrecking my bets bro :p     Honestly I rate them all equally bad tbh, any good occuring in government rarely collects the credit correctly like the people on the front line who risk their lives not talking heads.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-tells-black-radio-host-problem-figuring-trump/story?id=70834037

Inclusiveness I think is the key word, Obama totally knew it and I remember even McCain understood it was vital.  A president represents all even the people who hate him, thats how it is and thats why its work to do.

[Darkoth89]

The Cuomo bet/trade, which made me open this thread, doesn't look too good now.


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441

I put some more on him @55-60, but his odds keep rising. He is a bit out of the spotlight with things getting better in New York, which doesn't help. Taking a slow approach with reopening the (down-)state is the correct thing to do imo, but not very well liked by a lot of people. It's tough to find the right balance and you never can please everyone.

I did not follow the primaries that closely and I have to admit that I am not an expert in US politics at all but isn't it already (at least inofficially) settled that Joe Biden will be the candidate of the Democrats? Does Cuomo, to have an actual chance, have to run as an independent candidate?

[figmentofmyass]

I did not follow the primaries that closely and I have to admit that I am not an expert in US politics at all but isn't it already (at least inofficially) settled that Joe Biden will be the candidate of the Democrats? Does Cuomo, to have an actual chance, have to run as an independent candidate?

it wouldn't be as an independent candidate. cuomo is a democrat, plus no third party has a chance in hell of winning.

cuomo's only shot is via a brokered democratic national convention. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

to win the democratic nomination outright, biden needs 1991 delegates. he only has 1566. if he doesn't win the nomination outright and he doesn't get a majority of delegate votes in the first voting round at the DNC, then the convention would be brokered. delegates can then switch their allegiances in the next round of voting, which could result in a nominee besides biden.

to give some perspective on the likelihood, there has not been a brokered convention since 1952 (eisenhower), and the last conventions that "came close" were in the early 1980s.

at these odds, gavin newsom is a more interesting play to me than cuomo. both are extreme long shots.

[Vishnu.Reang]

^^^ There is no chance that Biden will fall short of the required number of primary delegates. Out of the 2,704 delegates declared so far he has got 1566. And only two candidates remain in the race - Biden and Tulsi Gabbard. If the outstanding primary elections go ahead as planned, then I expect Biden to win at least 99% of the remaining delegates. IMO, he'll end up at somewhere around 2,800.

[tyKiwanuka]

I did not follow the primaries that closely and I have to admit that I am not an expert in US politics at all but isn't it already (at least inofficially) settled that Joe Biden will be the candidate of the Democrats? Does Cuomo, to have an actual chance, have to run as an independent candidate?

Yes, figment explained very well, thanks for that. The market in the screenshot you quoted is for next president, not democratic nominee. For democratic nominee market looks like this:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128161111

So there is still some possibility for Biden not to be Dem nominee, just like there is for Trump (he is @1.08 rn). I opened that Cuomo trade, because of a) the health issues he has/had, which could lead to him being unable to run for presidency no more and b) for the little possiblity of the Democrats somehow wanting to have someone else to compete against Trump, because they see better chances with him. As I said numerous times, I think ANY candidate just a little bit more charismatic and a bit younger maybe, should easily beat Trump and I saw Cuomo just being that while watching his pressers every day, when the situation in New York was so bad. Now we also have c) with these sexual assault things, where we don't know yet, how it will play out in the end (not a lot impact imo).

As I also stated in first post, I lack deeper understanding of how this would all work, once Biden would step down for whatever reason in the end. But figment and other people explained the modus operandi and I would never stake a penny on that @1.15 for Biden Dem nominee above. Still a long way to go until November. That Cuomo trade is not looking good at the moment though and is in red Lets see, if I can turn it into profit in the next weeks/months.

[Juggy777]

I did not follow the primaries that closely and I have to admit that I am not an expert in US politics at all but isn't it already (at least inofficially) settled that Joe Biden will be the candidate of the Democrats? Does Cuomo, to have an actual chance, have to run as an independent candidate?

Yes, figment explained very well, thanks for that. The market in the screenshot you quoted is for next president, not democratic nominee. For democratic nominee market looks like this:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128161111

So there is still some possibility for Biden not to be Dem nominee, just like there is for Trump (he is @1.08 rn). I opened that Cuomo trade, because of a) the health issues he has/had, which could lead to him being unable to run for presidency no more and b) for the little possiblity of the Democrats somehow wanting to have someone else to compete against Trump, because they see better chances with him. As I said numerous times, I think ANY candidate just a little bit more charismatic and a bit younger maybe, should easily beat Trump and I saw Cuomo just being that while watching his pressers every day, when the situation in New York was so bad. Now we also have c) with these sexual assault things, where we don't know yet, how it will play out in the end (not a lot impact imo).

As I also stated in first post, I lack deeper understanding of how this would all work, once Biden would step down for whatever reason in the end. But figment and other people explained the modus operandi and I would never stake a penny on that @1.15 for Biden Dem nominee above. Still a long way to go until November. That Cuomo trade is not looking good at the moment though and is in red Lets see, if I can turn it into profit in the next weeks/months.

@tyKiwanuka I don’t think that Biden will be replaced now, as he’s successfully united a divided democratic party ahead of the presidential elections. However if we were to assume a hypothetical scenario then he would only be removed if his loose statements continued to hurt Democratic party’s voter base, e.g. he has sensationally claimed that black Americans are not black if they vote for Trump.

Sources:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5250705.msg54489966#msg54489966

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/us/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-2020.html