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921  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: January 18, 2013, 07:34:48 PM
I expect to see a pullback this weekend.  Profit taking, long US holiday weekend, etc. 

$13.75 - $14.25 range by Monday.
922  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: Free Bitcoins to Everyone (mod note - pyramid scheme) on: January 10, 2013, 12:00:21 AM
What? No payouts today?   Cheesy
923  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment] on: January 09, 2013, 06:38:22 PM
I like the feel to be trusted so im in Smiley
Address only for here 1NqcmfCCz1bsFjJaYxhnkbcfaZS7C9a5z2

Sent.

TX: https://blockchain.info/address/1NqcmfCCz1bsFjJaYxhnkbcfaZS7C9a5z2
924  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment] on: January 09, 2013, 06:03:36 PM
Received 3.67BTC from BTCGOLD.  Who's next?
925  Economy / Games and rounds / Re: Circle of Trust [Game/experiment] on: January 09, 2013, 02:58:41 AM
Yeah why not.

1GKv7EnAABx9wk1CnE6Xqa2rATm17JHtQS
926  Economy / Gambling / Re: SatoshiDICE.com - The World's Most Popular Bitcoin Game on: January 09, 2013, 12:19:41 AM
quick question: those of you posting the "number of bets, winnings" stuff, where are you finding that? i just pulled my transaction history for my payout address and i THINK i'm up about 1 btc, but i'd like to see that somewhere if it's available.

I think that was from the official satoshidice client program "SatoshiRoller" that they released a while back.

Where is this client?  The only link I found directs you back to satoshidice.
927  Economy / Goods / Re: [Sold] Assassin's Creed 3 for XBOX on: January 08, 2013, 10:17:30 PM
Glad to hear it.  Enjoy.
928  Economy / Economics / Re: us fiscal cliff: what is it? on: January 08, 2013, 10:03:35 PM
So what happened?

The can was kicked down the road. 

For the average person it means an increase in (Social Security) payroll tax of 2%.  It's technically not an increase since all that was done was the temporary decrease was not renewed for another year but either way, workers will be paying more taxes.

Long-term it might mean another downgrade for US debt if congress isn't able to come to a long-term agreement. 
929  Economy / Economics / Re: US Gov may mint a 1 Trillion dollar coin out of thin air - Hiperinflation? on: January 08, 2013, 09:54:01 PM
This has been thrown around for a while now.  Basically it's just a way to circumvent the stupid debt ceiling, which is irrelevant since the US has raised the debt ceiling something like 76 times already and will do so again.  This is not hyperinflation, maybe if they were printing thousands of these coins like Zimbabwe but they're not.
930  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: I just made a free NFL Playoffs "Stock Market" Pool with 30 BTC in prizes! on: January 05, 2013, 12:10:41 AM
Cool, I'm in!
931  Economy / Digital goods / Legendary items for Borderlands 2 [Xbox] on: January 04, 2013, 09:34:32 PM
Just testing the waters on this one.  I know people spend hundreds of hours farming legendary weapons.  Obviously I don't have them all but I have an extensive collection.  If there's something you're looking for, let me know what it is and how much you're willing to pay and perhaps we can make a deal.

Also have E-techs, Seraphs, etc.
932  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [POLL] Should we recommend that noobs use an alternative client? on: January 04, 2013, 06:30:13 PM
No, we should educate new users about the benefits and drawbacks of each client and let them choose.

I agree that all disclaimers should be made, however, I don't see a problem with recommending an alternative client.  I recently downloaded the entire block chain and it was incredibly slow to put it mildly.  I think this will be a huge turnoff for those new to Bitcoin and some of the alternate clients can have alleviate that issue.
933  Economy / Goods / [Sold] Assassin's Creed 3 for XBOX on: January 04, 2013, 01:57:26 AM
1.5 BTC, includes shipping (US only).  Disc is used but in VERY good condition.



Edit:  Item has been sold, thanks for your interest.
934  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fiscal Cliff trade on: January 03, 2013, 07:11:19 PM
10 contracts gives you the OPTION to sell 1,000 shares of stock, not 1,000 options.  I'm sure it was a typo but just to clarify for those unfamiliar.  Also, you should probably disclose that your 85% gain will be wiped out by your 100% loss on this position come next Friday.  There is no free lunch people.

Yeah... my trade is pretty much sour at this point. It happens. That's why I only risk small amounts on these highly risky plays in weeklies, and I speculate with "bundles" of options on various securities. That way if I take a 100% loss on a trade like this, which looks like a possibility, I just write it off and charge it to the game.

Anyhow... We didn't "solve" the Fiscal Cliff, we just pushed it back several weeks and created a BIGGER problem. But markets aren't always rational. This big rally is just a happy-go-lucky reaction to the sense of impending doom being put off a few weeks. It will top out, in which case I'll be ready with an even better trade and we will probably get some extreme volatility at some point in the next 2 months. Playing options on VXX will then become quite attractive.

No, I understand your position I just think like DannyHamilton, it may have attracted the inexperienced investor with the lure of big gains.  Options are complex for the average investor and due to their leverage, you can make fantastic gains but that pendulum also swings in the other direction.  I'm not knocking you for the bad call, it happens, I just wanted to throw out some disclaimers.

As for the "Cliff" I do agree with you, the can has just been kicked further down the road.  However, I've also learned two frequently used sayings through my career, "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" and "don't fight the Fed."  The problem with options is you not only have to be right about the direction of the stock, you also have to be dead on about the timing.  That's the tough part.  BAC could plummet on the 14th but by then your options are already expired.  Options certainly serve a purpose, and I use them often, but people also need to be cautious and aware of the downsides.   
935  Economy / Speculation / Re: Fiscal Cliff trade on: January 03, 2013, 01:37:47 AM
Closed my $33.5 weekly calls on VIX less than an hour ago, for a staggering 85%+ gain.  Cool

Want in on this action? Ok, here's the move...

We're going off the Fiscal Cliff... Just accept it... As a result, the banks are going to get pounded. BAC, having just set a new high today before falling back, looks particularly vulnerable... Currently trading at $11.30/share. So let's get em...

Buy the weekly JAN1 13 11 puts which are trading for < $0.15, have 8 days of life till expiry and are only 0.33pt out of the money. You can buy 10 contracts (1000 options) for a mere $140-ish + commission. That will give you $1000 upside for every $1 drop in BAC stock below $11/share.

This is how you speculate with small amounts of money... Enjoy!  Cool

--ATC--

10 contracts gives you the OPTION to sell 1,000 shares of stock, not 1,000 options.  I'm sure it was a typo but just to clarify for those unfamiliar.  Also, you should probably disclose that your 85% gain will be wiped out by your 100% loss on this position come next Friday.  There is no free lunch people.
936  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Public Notice: Bitcoincentral.com on: December 28, 2012, 01:26:00 AM
What would have happened after, someone offering bitcoin-central.io for $2000? What next, secure-bitcoin-central.net for $500? And then bticoin-central.net for $1500?

.com holds significantly more weight and value than .io, .net, etc.  Surely you know this.
937  Economy / Speculation / Re: You guys gonna become paranoid about Ripple on: December 27, 2012, 12:26:21 AM
Prosper was an enormous failure (for the "investor").  Ripple will follow with those two idiots at the helm.
938  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dear rich guy: How you can make risk-free profit with bitcoin. on: December 21, 2012, 07:26:49 PM
Its foolish to put all of your savings into one medium of exchange anyway.
I would tend to agree but what I've found interesting of late is that most of us don't have to 'put' our money in one medium.  By default we have our money in one currency.  Falkvinge (if he did what he said he was doing), assuming he was starting from that position, was still diversifying by having most of his money into Bitcoin and living expenses in Krona.  Yet to put that much in Bitcoin at this stage of the game when those who know the technology best are still insisting on calling it 'experimental' is a mighty high risk strategy so maybe rather than 'capitulating' he just saw enough sense to redress the balance and reduce a good proportion of his Bitcoin exposure. 

As much as many of us may like to be scathing of the economics that underlie centrally issued currencies, for the time being large-scale exposure to the pound/dollar/euro etc. is I would say still significantly less risky than to Bitcoin.

Yes, this is very true in that we often have to go out of our way to diversify.  Bitcoin has it's place in that diversification, however, his "all-in" mentality came off as he was looking for a get rich scheme, and when that didn't pan out, he capitulated. 

Generally I have roughly 10% of my investment funds, not savings, allocated to high-risk or speculative investments.  Taleb recommends this in his Black Swan book although I tweak it some to fit my personal preferences. 
939  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: December 21, 2012, 06:38:46 PM
Hey Cypher,

Good to see you're still going strong.  I think it's been over a year since I logged on but ran into a news story about bitcoin-central and thought I'd take a stroll around the forum.  I see you've got your own newsletter too.  I've got a few BTC's laying around, maybe I'll sign up for January.  Assuming the world doesn't end today of course  Grin 
940  Economy / Speculation / Re: Dear rich guy: How you can make risk-free profit with bitcoin. on: December 21, 2012, 06:32:55 PM
Its foolish to put all of your savings into one medium of exchange anyway.
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