Sure, a kind of world reserve currency status may be reached or reachable in bitcoin - but I don't understand why anyone should tie their own sense of being fulfilled to such status.. whether reaching such status is characterized by terms like "best times" or some other characterization to proclaim that bitcoin needs to do something in order to make "me" feel better.

Seems to me that bitcoin already "is" doing something.  Bitcoin already "is" statisfying for me..

Sure, bitcoin seems poised to do more than what it is currently doing.. because bitcoin surely seems to be a kind of baby in terms of its adoption and development... so in that regard, I remain interested in what bitcoin is doing on a regular basis.. and so that seems to be why I log into this thread on a daily basis... and on average, more than that... ... - but my sense of myself is NOT wedded to whether it does MOAR or not...

Maybe I am just caught upon semantics?

Perhaps?

Perhaps?

In the whole scheme of things, your cat gets treated pretty well, vapourminer, back to the mask theme.. given how naughty she seems to be.

I believe you should "ground" her from her masking privileges and see how she fares under such new arrangements.

Alternatively, since you seem to be such a softy, vapourminer, I know about some adoption services that may be of interest to you.

#just_saying.

Fair enough..

And, surely this money printer go bbbrrrr practice is also going to require a lot of folks to recalculate and to likely increase the quantity of their needed principle because none of us are getting out of this situation alive in terms of the likely necessity to have 2x to 3x more principle in order to reach the same goals as previously (just a year or so ago).

I would imagine that your projections/expectations of BTC prices in 2021 still remains a range - rather than an exact number...

So, if we end up reaching the top of the range, then that could well be 1.06x to 30x higher than the bottom of the range?  maybe I am just having troubles with attempting to project the future in such likely to continue to be exponentially changing asset, such as BTC..?  I mean a conservative reasonable bottom of the range of the top might be current prices + 6%, and a reasonable but hopeful top might be close to $500k (which would be in the 30x territory from here).

Call me delusional, if you must.  


Does your cat (such as the one in your avatar) get the used ones, or are you "mask rich"?

Can you tell me where you live again, or if that does not work, I am available for adoption.. just shoot me a PM.  Thanks in advance.   #nohomo


Use some of your BTC..  purchase a nice, new, quality laptop (or alternatively keyboard) .you rich bastard!!!!!!!!!

#nohomo. 

Probably we are not going to hearing any complaining or grumbling from Bawb for a while, unless BTC prices go above $23k or below $11k...

I mean, he is kind of set for this particular current BTC price range and a bit beyond our current BTC price range.. that seems to be one of the advantages of shaving off a bit of BTC profits within the bounds of a decent BTC price run - even if BTC prices continue to go UPpity from here.

Don't get me wrong, because I am surely NOT suggesting that any mere mortal HODLer take profits unless s/he is somewhat out of the BTC accumulation phase, his/her stash is either in decent profits and/or s/he is feeling some stress from time to time from the quantity his/her BTC holdings (which also should preferably be in profits too, even if still in a largely stacking sats phase).

I mean we are still getting back to a point in which peeps might conclude differently regarding how much income they need to either maintain their current standard of living versus increasing some of their consumption based on increased wealth.  

So, if you believe that your income is going down because your active earnings are going down (which seems to be somewhat within your choice to reduce your labor, too), then surely remains discretionary whether you draw from retirement funds or continue to let them ride - in the event that you can increase your cashflow through labor or if you can reduce some of your living expenses in order NOT to have to draw from retirement funds.

Surely, you and I have been batting back and forth about how much we can bank upon bitcoin prices going up in the short to medium term, including whether we might act to our detriment to become overly reliant upon BTC prices going up, and thereby become disappointed in the event that BTC prices do not go up in any amount close to our expectations.

I believe that I had been trying to remove such expectations from the formula by suggesting to base calculations upon the 208 week moving average rather than making calculations based on where current prices are or where they might go... so in some sense, placing a lot of reliance on current BTC prices and where they might go presumes a possibility of cashing out some BTC or a lot of BTC in order to assist with reaching cashflow goals.

Even though the 208 week moving average is going to benefit from short term BTC price movements - I still believe that it is a better measurement to attempt to remove short to medium price concerns - unless you are making plans to sell some increasing amounts of your BTC in order to attempt to meet your cashflow and/or capital goals.

Of course, you have acknowledged that my statement of my BTC plan involves scraping off some BTC along the way, no matter what in the event that the BTC price goes up - and I would also include myself in considerations of whether I might find it in my interest to shave off a wee bit more BTC than what is in my regular plan in the event that some kind of blow off top seems to be in progress.  So, surely, I might, as well, adjust my behavior a bit in the direction of selling more (as a kind of lump sum percentage) during this particular blow off top than I had done in the 2017 blow off top to $19,666.  

By the way, I had noticed that if we get to $19,666 this time around, I have way more in BTC (as a percentage compared with cash) than I had in late 2017.... So, in late 2017, my BTC to cash had approached 88/12 and this time around my BTC to cash is likely going to be around 96.5/3.5... so maybe if BTC were to get to $80k or $150k or $300k, then my BTC/cash ratios might get close to my 2017 levels if 88/12 or I will have to force my BTC stash into such a position since my current practice (including assessing my current cashing out trajectory) do not seem to automatically bring my BTC/cash ratio back down to those late 2017 levels of around 88/12.  

In some sense, it is just way too much money to deal with, and so in that regard, either I would be using it to buy back bitcoin, or I need to find some kind of way to spend it.. such as planes, yachts and islands.. otherwise it is way more money than I am accustomed to spending in my regular budget on hookers, lambos and blow.  

First world problems.  

Sure... where we are heading verus where we are.

Fair enough; no problema...

By the way Biodom, seems that I recently (wasn't it earlier today?) presented a hypothetical to you, and you have not yet responded...    

This train has a better number:

Are you referring to something in the ballpark of the current BTC price $15,500 to $16,400 -ish  or some other BTC reference price.. like a potential correction or a BTC price rise?

So for example, if you were referring to current BTC prices, then wouldn't a 3x price increase assist you in accelerating your goals.... that would be in the $45k to $50k price arena?

Of course, I am NOT sure if you noticed my more recent practices of referring to the 208-weekly moving average as a kind if preferable means of measuring where we are at - that way my BTC price reference numbers would not be changing too frequently (but kind of gradually going UPpity on a fairly regular, consistent, if not somewhat slow basis), even if there might happen to be relatively large fluctuations in the BTC price in recent times.

Anyhow, I was somewhat considering $5,000 to be my BTC price bottom of remaining conservative in any kind of "fuck you" assertions, and currently the 208-weekly is at nearly $7k, so I suppose I seem to be in a bit of a different boat in terms of having a price cushion for my bottom, which provides security and not really afraid to say "fuck you," if I were to feel that I were to need to, even if I don't tend to be very directly confrontational in my real world interactions unless I am feeling that I am pushed against a wall.. which really has NOT been happening very much in recent times, anyhow...   

I sort of stopped working very much anyhow, except projects that I want to do, yet I used to feel pushed against the wall more frequently when I was younger.. but I suppose even more elderly peeps might sometimes get challenged too.. even though real life people tend to be pretty respectful towards more elderly folks since more elderly folks do not really tend to be threatening towards them... for the most part.

[emphasis added by yours truly] You must be referring to the royal "we" TheJuice.

 

 

I am glad that you, Biodom, are being somewhat creative with your way of looking into these kinds of matters.

So, in accordance with your recent calculations and some of our previous conversations, you should ONLY need around $2.4 to $2.7 million (40-45%-ish) in principle rather than the $6 million that you had mentioned - making the amount of principle a wee bit more reachable.

I see that currently, BTC's 208-week moving average are approaching $7k, so as I type, to be conservative and prudent, a $2.4 to $2.7 million in principle would ONLY require 342.86 to 385.715 BTC to meet your maintenance of current lifestyle expectations. 

On a positive note, many of us should be expecting the 208-week moving average to continue to move up in the coming years - especially given current BTC prices, recent BTC price performance and some of the expectations around BTC price performance (including the various legitimate BTC price models, which seem to be largely playing out within previous/recent expectations).  Another possibility could be to shave off some BTC at prices that are much higher than 208-week moving average prices in order to NOT have so much of the expectations in BTC.. but then you would  be stuck with attempting to maintain that principle in other assets... currently, that shaving off would only require 147.24 to 165.65 BTC (based on current $16,300 BTC prices), and surely that would be risky to shave off all of the BTC in order to ensure adequate principle, even though some combination of approaches could be doable - depending on the size of your BTC stash - which would then bring you to some variation of Bob's approach in terms of cashing out some reasonable portion rather than all of your BTC stash.

Even if BTC prices fail  to go above December 2017 levels by this December, there is no such 3 year fractal pattern in bitcoin...

Bitcoin happens to have a 4-year-ish fractal pattern, so there happens to be a whole another year to get above that there mountaintop...

What will actually happen, may well be another story.....

Yes, $16.5k is relevant.  It is within about 16% of the previous ATH... and it is relevant because it represents about a 65% increase in our latest mini-bullrun from September 3-ish to present.... so of course, a correction could happen at any time (as is always the case when the price goes up without meaningful corrections along the way), but still does not mean that such hypothesized correction will happen.

TLDR:  There is something to it.  If any of us keep predicting down, sooner or later some kind of down is going to happen.      Just like it did in December 2017 when sgbett made his so "insightful" prediction, even if this time around such correction will likely resemble either the correction that took place in mid 2016 from nearly $800 to $300 (not as likely) or the one in March 2017 from nearly $1,300 to $900 (more likely, though a mere possibility than a likelihood) rather than the one that took place in late 2017 from $19,666 to $3,124.

We use Bitstamp in these here parts, so of course, LFC is Koreck. 

Oh my!!!!  You got mondays, you fuck.   

Surely not bad.

How am I supposed to know regarding why not?


4 digits do not seem very likely, at this time.

I had suggested that we could not really have any meaningful chance of feeling as if we are past 4 digits until we get meaningfully above $13,880... and surely it seems as if we have gotten "meaningfully" above $13,880.... so there is that angle in regards to where the bottom might be upon any test or change in momentum.

One piece of evidence in regards to 4 digits still being open is the 200 week moving average, which is merely in the lower $7ks...   

So, the last time that I checked, lower $7ks do qualify for 4 digits, even if maybe our momentum is UPpity from here.. so at some point in the coming year or so, the 200-week moving average will also move into the 5 digits, making 4 digits even less likely.

Next thing, you are going to be getting your own day, too.   

Well, that was a talented lil deflection and avoidance dance.    


None of those examples count as timely and/or sufficiently assertive predictions that 4 digits were gone forever (or final).  Try ur lil selfie a wwwweeeee bit MOAR harder, next time.  

 

Hahahahaha

Fair enough.


Which one is more (less) consistent?  Asking for a friend.

I have armchair diagnosed "dyslexia" in you, Phillip, yet since I am such a "nice" guy (unlike dat udder wordy man), I FTFY, above.....

 



Whoaza!!!!!

Surely, possible that we could have a BTC price future that happens something close to that.

 


Hahahahaha

 Exactly....

No "down before up"   

Don't forget the losses of the battles at $10k, $11k and $12k, too.  Must suck to be a bear these days.

The last significant and somewhat lasting BTC price dip that we had was around 9/3 when there was a final attempt to get below $10k... and of course, no one really realized that such attempt at sub-$10k was going to end up playing out as a "final" one at that time.   

Pour one out for the bears.