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9381  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] The dangerous sex on: October 06, 2020, 07:30:24 PM

I have noticed that you tend to be a bit of a softy (in other words, one of your weaker spots) when it comes to protecting the fairer sex.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

Perpend a juxtaposition which modern simpletons will not understand:

In essentially the same passage as in which Nietzsche praised the natural strength of womankind, and for example hailed Napoleon’s mother for having gained “power and ascendancy over men” through her “force of will”, he also urged European men to see Woman “as Orientals do”:  As “a possession, as confinable property”.

Thereupon, observe how the feminists with daddy issues want (or pretend to want) one part, and
reactionary manosphere twits with feminist-mommy issues
wish for the other part, and nobody integrates these concepts properly.

I dislike feeling as if I were quoting chapter and verse (Beyond Good and Evil, #238–239); I have my own ideas, thank you very much.  But then, perhaps I should leave some ambiguity about my personal opinions—let’s just say that from my high respect for women, I have learned a feminine coyness.  Moreover, it is remarkable that in the 1880s, Nietzsche’s philosophy of a beneficial antagonism between the sexes anticipated current scientific theories of sexual selection and evolutionary psychology.  He cared about heirs, you see—not so much personal heirs, but in the abstract, the evolutionary heirs of Man.

Also, in the 1880s, he condemned “modern ideas” and “the sensitive and pampered taste of a democratic century”, i.e. the Nineteenth Century.

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Quote from: Nietzsche (Thus Spake Zarathustra)
Two different things wanteth the true man: danger and play.  Therefore wanteth he woman, as the most dangerous plaything.

I am surely NOT proclaiming such proclivities to be a bad thing (even if a potential weakness).  Wink

 Tongue

 Kiss  #nohomo
9382  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2020, 07:09:35 PM
[edited out]
I too am sure that i do come off as an nutjob, however it is the truth. Tongue

Well, at least you admit to some kind of "nutjob" status, but I am not sure if that would make you a better troll / shill than the average troll/shill or not?



Many troll/shills won't fucking admit to those kinds of things or even cooperate in providing much if any information about their lil selfies, but I will concede too that troll/shills come in a variety of flavors, and sometimes these mostly unhelpful participants will take some kind of unique posting approach in order to attempt to garner some sympathies from some members who might be somewhat sympathetic to troll/shills or entertained by their nonsense.

Since you are still new here, there could be a chance that you might grow up a bit, and then start to contribute to the thread and the forum?  There have been some members who had gone through such transition... so anything is possible... unlikely, but sure.. possible [insert alien meme here].

Don’t make life to difficult for our headmaster of the WO  Grin
I pronounce no vote. Now do the percentage, not the job for the head master  😜

May be a NO IDEA option needed



This is one of those situations in which you gotta make a choice.

There is no fence-sitting nor weaseling out with this particular question.  Either you make one of the two listed choices, or you abstain from participating indulging in a mass-hallucination that a circus entertainment be meaningful.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

FYFY.

Look at uie....  Shocked Shocked Shocked

Taking BitcoinGirl.Club's side in this matter.

I have noticed that you tend to be a bit of a softy (in other words, one of your weaker spots) when it comes to protecting the fairer sex.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
LOL JG

I understand that you are a daddy.. but sure nullius may not have realized that (whether subconsciously or otherwise), but now, your response pushing me towards elaborating more than I originally intended.
9383  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy every dip, and HODL! on: October 06, 2020, 06:48:51 PM
What happen when the dip get dipper? The best thing is to look for change in of momentum in the market before buying the dip unless those who want to HODL for long  let says months or years. As a trader, it might not augur well.

Anyone getting in BTC would likely be well served by treating it as at least a 4 year investment, and even better if they have a longer investment time horizon, such as 10 to 20 years.

One of the best ways to make any investment is to employ dollar cost averaging techniques, and even if a person might be front loading the investment because they want to get at a certain target investment portfolio, such as having bitcoin serve as 1% of the value of the portfolio 10% or some other target accumulation amount.

So whoever is investing and attempting to reach target positions is mostly aiming at accumulating over a period of time, and of course, if they can buy some of their BTC at a lower price 10%, 20% or 50% lower, then they can accumulate more BTC, but with BTC we cannot be assured that any such dips are going to take place from whatever price point we happen to be at.

So, buying on dips can account for accumulating a bit more BTC over time, but sometimes, it is better just to make sure to get in and stop trying to worry whether you got 1 BTC for your $11k or you were able to get 1.3BTC because the price dropped 30%.

What he is saying, in my opinion, has less to do with waiting for lower prices and more to do with waiting for ideal momentum.

Sure, that is a fair interpretation, and you likely realize that I don't agree with that way of thinking or that approach to investing - even though of course, there are a decent number of people who think and invest like that. 

Even though I tend to advocate for some variation of my approach, I don't necessarily expect people are going to agree, and surely in the end, as long as they are accounting for a the various factors of their own circumstances, then hopefully they will learn along the way and tweak along the way, if they believe that they need to adjust their approach.

It's not that "the dip might go deeper so you should always wait to buy lower." It's more that it's prudent to buy into weak selling momentum (indicating accumulation and expected bullish reversal) rather than simply buying at random, or buying early into a crash where you can reasonably expect lower prices in the short term.

Sure.  You and I have been back and forth about this quite a bit, and I frequently proclaim that it is difficult as fuck for even expert studiers of the space and BTC price dynamics to recognize these kinds of factors, so the vast majority of folks are likely not really going to know if they are buying into selling momentum, big dips or small dips or whatever is going on.. even if they might develop hunches around such dynamics.

A vast majority of time, it seems better to establish some kind of system that allows for both buying regularly and maybe structuring various dip points that are largely comfortable and can be tweaked from time to time based on the variety of personal circumstances.


I don't think DCA implies you shouldn't put any thought whatsoever into entries.

I am not saying that, either.. .but with bitcoin, you should also NOT be getting too worked up about having had bought BTC all the way from $19,666 to $11k and some of your purchased BTC happen to be in the red... In the end, who fucking cares?  You cannot necessarily know.. and after a decent amount of time investing in BTC on a regular basis, it still remains quite likely that you should be in profits with the longer passage of time... and likely in a better position than if fucking around with trying to time matters and just getting stressed out about it. 

So, ultimately a combination of both could be helpful if the person has enough cashflow.  So yeah, having $100 per week (as I mentioned in my earlier post) that is able to be invested into BTC is a decently sized cashflow that could allow for some flexibility in using some amounts to buy regularly (such as half) and the other amounts to attempt to be strategic about those buy price points.

Some people might not have $100 per week, and they might have only $10 per week.  They could still attempt to do the same thing by dividing half and half, but they may have to figure out some other method of maybe buying once a month rather than once a week.. and surely the smaller amounts allow for lower amounts of value to work with in regards to being able to lump sum invest parts of their cashflow, too.

Of course, if someone has higher amounts of cash, even $250 per week or higher amounts, then they are going to have more options, and frequently those higher cashflow folks may have better ideas about how to manage their investment, than someone who may be struggling a bit more with lower cashflows and likely getting more enticed into taking gambling approaches rather than exercising more prudent investment and portfolio management strategies that I tend to argue that dollar cost averaging tends to better facilitate more prudence rather than by trying to time the market through gambling techniques that may or may not be prudent depending on how much of a cashflow that is available to such hypothetical investor(s).

I think both investors and traders (and everyone in between) should make some effort to avoid drawdowns. Drawdowns, especially ones that are deep and long term, can lead to bad emotional decisions and capitulation. It's also just not a very efficient use of a capital.

We can agree to disagree, no?  I think that in regards to bitcoin (our lil buddy) the efficiency can work itself out with a long enough investment strategy that largely just mostly engages in DCA strategies that attempt to accumulate and focus on accumulating BTC on a regular and ongoing basis.. and sure short-term it might not seem that such system has been being very efficient, but if someone ends up engaging in a longer term investment approach to BTC such as 7 years or longer, the numbers will likely start to work themselves out in favorable ways - even though with any investment, including BTC, there are no guarantees.. so in that regard, prudence in the amount may help to alleviate feelings of anxiety in regards to whether the investment in BTC is performing well or not in the shorter term.

Again, see the linked website regarding DCA into BTC over the past  7 years with a $10 per week approach that compares gold and equities.  You can adjust the timeframes and/or amounts to see how historical BTC price performance would have varied in comparison to gold and equities.

If you see another bubble and pop like December 2017, does it make sense to immediately buy into the market? Of course not. Your money is better off elsewhere, likely for a couple years. That doesn't mean a 5-year investment timeline won't work out just fine in terms of achieving positive ROI. But it may not be the best plan either.

If someone has a $10k investment portfolio with $1k invested into BTC and $9k invested in various other assets, then maybe they do not need to worry very much because they have a meaningful stake in BTC.. whether it is enough to make a difference or not might be another story.. But, sure, they are already in and if they just let the market ride itself out then if they continue to buy $10 per week or whatever, may not really make a BIG difference.

If someone has zero invested BTC, then they decide to wait, that is on them.   I do not suggest waiting.  I suggest getting the fuck into bitcoin with some reasonable amount that is comfortable for the person that is 1% to 10% of their investment portfolio and then sure they can tweak according to their circumstances.  Invest for 4 years or longer, and if your time line is shorter than 4 years, then you might need to reconsider whether to invest in BTC at all or merely to adjust some of the numbers to fit your shorter time horizon which involves more gambling tendencies - and I am not in the business of recommending gambling approaches to BTC investing... but hey, that is just me.. attempting to presume a 4 year or longer investment timeline and to work from there.. and if people cannot do that, then maybe they should not be listening to what I have to say... or they can attempt to tweak what I say to their personal circumstances... adjusting various parts to attempt to make it work for their personal circumstances and that surely involved figuring out cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and time, skills and abilities to plan, learn along the way, tweak their strategies including reallocating and deciding whether or not to include trading within their portfolio management and investment approach... 
9384  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2020, 05:30:21 PM
Price tag: Over $1 million

I read it's $480K, but yeah... pretty expensive.

More expenses in running and securing it, of course... so have to generate at least enough income, to pay for its maintenance and upkeep - including cost of staff (minimum staff? or adequate staff?) 

These days, also, there may be a need to make sure that the ventilation systems have allowed for some health assurances (virus related, of course) - harder to accomplish those kinds of assurances in enclosed and potentially frequently trafficked spaces.
9385  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] PSA: Universal suffrage means vote-inflation on: October 06, 2020, 05:14:29 PM
May be a NO IDEA option needed



This is one of those situations in which you gotta make a choice.

There is no fence-sitting nor weaseling out with this particular question.  Either you make one of the two listed choices, or you abstain from participating indulging in a mass-hallucination that a circus entertainment be meaningful.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

FYFY.

Look at uie....  Shocked Shocked Shocked

Taking BitcoinGirl.Club's side in this matter.

I have noticed that you tend to be a bit of a softy (in other words, one of your weaker spots) when it comes to protecting the fairer sex.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9386  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2020, 04:58:55 PM
@JJG

I don’t think Bitmex-gate is going to affect us too much. I’m still thinking that we moon in 2021, there is perhaps a chance that covid could stop us going as high as we would have but yeah, I still think we moon next year.


Now Now  LFC, the times of ATH are long gone Smiley , reminiscence of 2017 and keep it close to the heart Tongue

We heard that before.

You come off as a bit of a nutjob to be making those kinds of proclamations, eXPHorizon, even if you are attempting some kind of a joke.

May be a NO IDEA option needed



This is one of those situations in which you gotta make a choice.

There is no fence-sitting nor weaseling out with this particular question.  Either you make one of the two listed choices, or you abstain from participating.   Tongue Tongue Tongue

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

For every dollar that goes into crypto the price rises $20-$25**. The millennial generation is poised to inherit $7T and they like crypto as an investment.

Research by @fundstrat.

** Estimated in 2018, it varies between market phases, higher in a bull market.
https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1313485412166443009?s=21

Hate that word, "crypto" whatever the fuck that means?

-1 WO smerit - for traumatizing yours truly and any other potentially sensitive WO peeps with that.    Tongue Tongue Tongue

Fundamental buy pressure from new HODLers is undeniable right now. But for short term traders, sell walling on derivative and spot exchanges shows whales are in price suppression mode. It may whipsaw randomly a bit, but the long game will win.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1313489686317461507?s=21

Ok. .. this one makes up for your earlier faux pas.

We (that's you and me, #nohomo) are back to neutral territory.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9387  Economy / Economics / Re: Bitcoin can be a part of N N Taleb's "Antifragile Barbell" Investment Scheme on: October 06, 2020, 04:48:47 PM
Bitcoin is unique, anyone looking for any comparisons to gold, stocks or anything else is on the completely wrong track. There will also always be people who say that Bitcoin is just another big internet scam - it has been so from the very beginning, and yet its value today is such that some large companies transfer part of their cash reserves to BTC - and funds like Grayscale have almost 500 000 BTC in their accounts.

Bitcoin has never been for investors who don’t understand technology, who are slaves to the old system, and for those who are afraid to make changes in their lives.


Surely, it is difficult to capture exactly what bitcoin is, but there are a lot of people who get mislead into thinking that bitcoin is technology, even though it surely uses technology to achieve digital scarcity and sound money in that direction which does make it a bit difficult to understand and also there are a lot of technologically smart people who get distracted into shitcoins and wrongly believing that they are somewhat similar are equal or even better than bitcoin.

We can talk about any ratios here, but we all know that it is not wise to keep all the eggs in the same basket - but I believe that everyone who did not invest in BTC some 5-6 years ago regrets today, and I have no doubt that the same will happen in the next 5 years.

Of course, with bitcoin we can review its price performance history compared to other assets, and the longer that we are able to have created an investment timeline, the better BTC's price performance is going to have had differentiated itself from other assets.

Take this example of DCA investing of $10 per week for the past 6 years - comparing such investment in BTC to gold and to equities, and of course, the website does allow tweaking of the timeline in order to compare various other investment timelines between 6 months and 9 years.

I agree with you that there is nothing really indicating that bitcoin is not going to continue to have relatively better price performance compared with other assets in the coming 5 years or even longer, so anyone just getting started could take some kind of similar or modified approach to the matter.


The golden rule is that investing in high-risk investments is only what we are willing to lose - all those who do the opposite gamble with a much higher stake, which can sometimes have very ugly outcomes.

Getting off of zero remains one of the best first steps, and also then there might be a need to figure out how much to do, and how to do it and what to do as BTC prices go up (in the event that they do).  There are surely ways to deal with those kinds of particulars, including working out some of the details as you go along and build up your BTC investment portfolio, and surely it makes sense to create some tentative plans, but also makes sense to tweak the plans along the way.

So, for example, in late 2013, when I got into bitcoin, my early plans were just to establish "a bit of a stake", yet after I was in bitcoin for about 6 months, my goal became to diversify the overall value of my total investment portfolio into bitcoin in order to reach a 10% allocation in bitcoin, which for me largely meant getting my BTC allocation higher than it was at that time.  So, it took me until the end of 2014 before I finally reached my 10% accumulation/allocation goal.  Once I reached that allocation goal, then I felt that i had more options, and it made a bit more sense for me to consider various other kinds  of plans after reaching that goal rather than planning ahead, because I was attempting to learn along the way.  Sure, I am NOT suggesting that my only goal was BTC accumulation in 2014 - but that was the main goal.

By the way, the value of the first BTC that I bought (nearly $1,200) stayed in the red for more than 3.3 years, but since I kept buying all along, the value of my overall BTC portfolio (average of about $500 per BTC by the end of 2015) got into break even territory in about 2 years and profitable in about 2.5 years.  

Part of my point is what to do can be adjusted along the way, including planning how to deal with exponential BTC price gains or exponential BTC price drops.. whether to sell a bit when the BTC price goes up and/or to buy a bit when the price goes down or some other strategy, and my personal strategy has been similar to other longer term BTC HODLers and that is to continue to hang onto a decent amount of my stash no matter what the BTC price does, and the value of that has largely had its ups and downs, but overall seems to have trended more towards up rather than down, even if we have experienced long periods of down and flat along the way.

Furthermore, if a person maintains a bit of a balance in his/her various other NON-bitcoin investments, and the value of the bitcoin investment goes shooting up relative to the other assets, so the combination of assets in the investment portfolio becomes overly weighted in BTC, there is NOT necessarily an absolute need to reallocate or rebalance those investments and not just allow the winner (which has been bitcoin) to continue to ride... even if such bitcoin allocation starts to dwarf other assets in the portfolio.

So, for example in my case, I largely achieved my accumulation goal of 10% in late 2014, but since the BTC price remained down and flat for most of 2015, I ended up accumulating enough additional BTC during that time that I had ended up overallocating and reaching around 13% allocation - which had its own ramifications on my consideration of my BTC holdings relative to my overall other investments, and when BTC prices largely shot up from around $250 to $19,666) between late 2015 and late 2017, my BTC allocation got to above 90%, and then when BTC prices dropped back down to $3,124 in late 2018, my BTC allocation ended up dropping to 50%, and currently, my BTC holdings float around 70%.

So the lopsided value of my BTC holdings relative to other assets in my portfolio largely had to do with BTC's over appreciation relative to those other assets, rather than my making any greater investments into BTC - except for that period in 2015 when I had started to gravitate towards overinvesting in BTC beyond my initial 10% allocation authorization amounts.

These remain personal choices regarding how to play these matters, whether to reallocate or whether to allow your winners to ride, and how much to allow for such winners to ride and even maybe scraping off some profits here and there along the way.

None of those choices regarding what to do and how to manage your BTC portfolio will make much if any sense if they are attempted to be made in the hypothetical and the abstraction because in a considerable degree each of us are products of our own circumstances including how much of a stake we have taken and how that stake has played out throughout the time that we have been invested in BTC - including whether or not we are in profits, if so how much we are in profits, and what the remainder of our investment circumstances look like, including considering our cash flow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline and our time, skills and abilities to learn along the way, plan and to tweak our plans and allocations along the way, including how much time that we are going to engage in trading or other allocation methods in terms of using those activities for managing our portfolio.
9388  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2020, 10:27:27 AM
[...]

Thanks, AlcoHoDL.

Thanks Jay, for your long (as always [saying this in a good way]), but thorough and merit-worthy reply, I appreciate it.

We are in agreement, and there's no need (for me) to reiterate what you already know.

Since we are posting in a public thread, sometimes as a courtesy, we (royal) do post some of topical matters in more detail than necessary for the benefit of others... so a little repetition tends to play out from time to time for those of us willing to bear such repetitions...

Of course, there are quite a few regular WO peeps who I have pretty decent confidence (faith) that do "get it" but every once in a while we witness surprises, too... mindrust.. cough, cough.. .. and also, face-melting BTC price moves or even long-ass periods of seeming irrational BTC price performances, sometimes can cause a few of us to enter locations closer to our psychological limits than we would prefer to acknowledge.

Just to clarify, my above highlighted text (in green) was not directed at your quoted long reply, but rather, it was meant to explain my very short reply to it (i.e., I don't need to reply in detail, since we are in agreement). Your reply was long (as always [saying this in a good way]), but well-written, and would deserve a longer answer, but I'm just far too busy with RL matters, so I just wanted to tell you not to take my short reply the wrong way...

No problem.. .Thanks for the clarification.. I did not take any of it in any kind of personal way..

As you likely realize, I will frequently find almost any excuse to rant about some random idea that I may be thinking and may not even have had anything to do with the original post...

Yes, ... also, RL obligations.   I can relate... ... I mentioned previously that I had been going over some of my security issues and even some matters related to passing on coins, in case something were to happen to me.  These kinds of matters can take a lot of time - and also reveal various compromises that happen along the way and even ways that security could be improved - if willing to put in a wee bit more efforts (that may or may not happen). 

I have found that whenever I spend some time to go through the process, then some of the security matters will end up improving through such process, though.  It's like having some kinds of security procedures, and if you you go through the process, at least, you remember what the process is, so that if certain kinds of shit does hit the fan, at least you have recently gone through the process (perhaps to be better prepared to deal with the shit hits the fan situation).
9389  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2020, 09:59:12 AM
@JJG

I don’t think Bitmex-gate is going to affect us too much. I’m still thinking that we moon in 2021, there is perhaps a chance that covid could stop us going as high as we would have but yeah, I still think we moon next year.

Fair enough.  I am largely with you, even if, perhaps, for slightly differing reasons.. and of course, part of my request for clarification came from some seemingly slight changes in some of your outline of our expected future with lil fiend.. minor as they may have been.

Personally, I believe that there are macro events that could shake bitcoin off of the various underlying fundamentals that differentiate bitcoin from other asset classes that are also captured in the dominant BTC price prediction models... and so far, we do not really seem to be seeing any kinds of substantive or meaningful divergences from already outlined path expectations.

[...]

Thanks, AlcoHoDL.

Thanks Jay, for your long (as always [saying this in a good way]), but thorough and merit-worthy reply, I appreciate it.

We are in agreement, and there's no need to reiterate what you already know.

Since we are posting in a public thread, sometimes as a courtesy, we (royal) do post some of topical matters in more detail than necessary for the benefit of others... so a little repetition tends to play out from time to time for those of us willing to bear such repetitions...

Of course, there are quite a few regular WO peeps who I have pretty decent confidence (faith) that do "get it" but every once in a while we witness surprises, too... mindrust.. cough, cough.. .. and also, face-melting BTC price moves or even long-ass periods of seeming irrational BTC price performances, sometimes can cause a few of us to enter locations closer to our psychological limits than we would prefer to acknowledge.
9390  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] A cure worse than the disease on: October 06, 2020, 09:30:17 AM

[edited out]

I am saying that they can’t have their Bitcake and eat it, too.

I don’t fancy that I could stop “those kinds of BIGGER players”, a.k.a. massive financial manipulators, from creating risky derivative clusterfucks.  I have said that a few times, in various places here.  My point is about regulation—especially, but not only, extra-jursidictional regulation by the Americans!

In the long term, the financial instruments and practices that I criticize can survive only in a regulated environment—viz., in the type of systemically corrupt-by-design regulatory environment at which Americans most excel (although with the advanced Progress™ of the current year, no country is very much better in that regard).  

Of course, with the passage of time, legal and financial systems become more complicated and intertwined, and I am with you.  I do not necessarily presume that all passage of time brings progress or that all societal changes are progressing towards better.. those are social constructions that are dangerous to presume.

Bitcoin does provide incentives and options that have the potential to make some of the traditional systems to become more honest - but we should NOT expect that those old systems are going to just go away with a kind of "poof" sound.


There, they are protected from natural consequences.  Quotable nullius:  In the soil of regulatory corruption, the seeds of folly grow “too big to fail”.  You know the end of that road!  “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”  Right back where we started.

Bitcoin can get along much better without Nanny American-CFTC pretending to protect it, and actually doing the long-term opposite.  

How you gonna keep them out?  I don't have a problem trying to figure out ways to make systems evolve better, but there still seems to be ONLY so much any of us can do before we start fantasizing about the ought rather than attempting to structure our own finances and psychology for the "is" rather than various forms of the "ought" that may or may not come about.

Let people do things that I dislike with Bitcoin; no matter how I may wish that I were Imperator, dictator perpetuo with the power to stop them, it seems that I’m not, and I can’t.  

Sure.. there is only so much that each of us can do, and of course, some people become motivated to change their position in order to have more influences in making changes that they would like to see, too.


And they are not protected from failing.  

Whether quickly or slowly, sure.

Some of us would like some of the shitcoins to die, too, and largely we have to figure out ways to deal with them, because some of them are going to end up surviving way longer than we would like, and perhaps even longer than they should.

All shitcoins, be gone!!!!!!!!    I have just proclaimed, it.   Shocked Shocked Shocked   Let me look outside and see if any changes have taken place.    Tongue Tongue Tongue

Ultimately, when the moral hazards created by regulations go away, people must learn to stop doing the hazardous things—or else, the people creating the hazards just go bankrupt.  As I have said before, in Bitcoin, the risk is not systemic.

I must disclose that you are starting to evolve (or perhaps devolve) into more abstraction than I am willing to entertain... #nohomo.


—Unless, that is, Bitcoiners get the attitude that we need to recreate the exact same financial system that we are trying to escape.  But now, with Blockchain™!  “The Times 03/Jan/2029 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for Blockchain banks”

Damn, on which point did I recently find myself quoting Karl Marx!?
Not that I would expect for [most people] to know enough political theory to be self-aware on this point—or to possess self-awareness on any point.


“Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world-historic facts and personages appear, so to speak, twice.  He forgot to add: the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.” — Karl Marx


A stage prop.
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Extra boldface has been added to this post, because I’m afraid the size=smaller parts of my above-quoted post were too shy to get attention.

N.b., I am NOT a follower of Rand, or Rothbard, or Mises, any of those schools of thought that are so popular in this space.  I don’t idealize Capitalism—to the contrary; as a modern dogma, it is the flipside of Communism.  (Title of Marxist Bible: Capital.)  I am not a votive at the altar of the Invisible Hand of the Free Market.  I do not fancy that market economics could create Utopia (or, for that matter, that Utopia would not actually be Dystopia).

Of course, we have a combination of a variety of values in which bitcoin's global impact helps us to reconsider some of the various paradigms and where bitcoin might fit into already existing systems and societal thought patters around how some of these systems are rewarding /punishing people.

I simply realize that at this point in history, the very best that we can do is to NOT take “cures” that are worse than the disease.  

You are referring to the "royal we?"  Each of us does need to figure out our place in bitcoin, and surely if we want to attempt to influence legislation, banking or judicial systems, we might need to get involved in some of those areas.  Alternatively, there is development, too.  Or just sitting back and commenting on various forums and hoping some others are inspired by our thoughts?

Hailing the intervention of the American CFTC in the Bitcoin markets outside American jurisdiction is like infecting yourself with HIV because you are worried about Covid.  You still have the original worry—and now, you have a much worse problem!


I do think that we have to take some of these institutional interventions (like the CFTC) with a grain of salt, and so you are correct that we might not want to just start applauding them without some skepticisms... even though some people do want these kinds of institutional and governmental interventions to feel more comfortable with bitcoin as an investment or even to feel more comfortable holding it or using it.


I said earlier in this thread about BitMEX, in reply to ivomm’s speculation about CME (so to speak), with boldface in the original:

If it is not something that can be done safely in an unregulated market, then maybe you shouldn’t be doing it in an unregulated market.  Don’t try to create the clusterfork of the bank-run financial markets in Bitcoin.

Thus concluded a post which began, with large boldface in the original:

Who appointed the United States and its institutions to supervise Bitcoin?

Many or even most governments likely feel that they do not need an invitation, so there is that angle, too.
9391  Other / Beginners & Help / Re: LoyceV's Beginners guide to correct use of the Trust system on: October 06, 2020, 08:35:48 AM
[edited out ]  
I don't need your approval. This is enough for me:
[edited out]

Of course, totally within your discretion, Loyce, regarding whether or how to respond to OgNasty and the copy cat posts that he had already inspired in this thread from his recent posts.. I would agree that it was likely that it was better for you to respond to OgNasty's first post in which he proclaimed that you were "not worthy" to be giving advices on how to dish out trust, blah blah blah... so responding to those initial claims, as you did, including asserting that it was off-topic was likely a reasonable approach, but as you already know and you already mentioned earlier, in a self-moderated thread, you are completely justified to completely delete the posts of OgNasty without further explanation .... and of course, he has a right to create another thread or to bring such topic up in other threads (which he seems to have done, as you suggested).  You even pointed out your particular reputation thread in which he could "totally" (if that were to be possible?) bash you, if he were to aim for such Loyce bashenings, since that thread is not self-moderated.

Sure, you decided to attempt to respond, to provide some linked info and mostly attempt to stay on topic, so however you deal with the situation is up to you, including if you decide to delete this particular post, as well (first time that I have ever suggested deleting my own post... first time for every little thing-i-lie).   Wink Wink #nohomo...

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9392  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] BitMEX on: October 06, 2020, 01:02:34 AM
Battles for the mindspace can take a lot of time,

Indeed.  That is why it is important to discuss these issues publicly.

What happens if nobody steps up and says it?

* nullius is nobody.

Of course, in some sense, you are preaching to the choir, nullius.

With you, perhaps, and with a good number of WO regulars.  I think that you and I are in basic agreement about many of these issues, although I think that perhaps here, I needed to clarify a few points on which you may have slightly mistaken my own position.

But then, there is that “mindspace” thing that you mentioned.

Why yes, let’s create a highly regulated derivatives market (replete with regulatory capture by the biggest and worst criminals), in which highly profitable (and oftentimes massive-clusterfuck-crash grade risky) financial products can be offered by those who (have teams of lawyers to pretend to) obey the (loophole-ridden exact letter of the) regulations.  Let’s create a regulated “digital assets industry” (in which the sharks with big money and big lawyers can just eat everybody else alive).  While we’re at it—let’s recreate the fractional reserve central banking system!  You know, as long as this MAX_MONEY thing is in place, Bitcoin will always be subject to more or less price volatility.  A beneficent central bank is like the governor on the economic engine—or like speed limits...

So, why do we have Bitcoin?

How are you going to stop those kinds of BIGGER players from coming into the space?

I don't see how we can necessarily have our cake and eat it too... One of the network effects in bitcoin is the increased financialization of the asset, and sure there might be attempts to denigrate bitcoin or to use bitcoin in the same kinds of ways that they have fucked up other asset classes, but you and I both recognize a distinguishing feature of bitcoin that changes the dynamics, and that is to be able to immediately claim possession of it.  If we enter into relationships with third parties in which we are NOT capable of either requesting or obtaining immediate possession of our coins, then we have chosen to disempower our lil selfies, and there are a large number of current BTC HODLers who recognize such power.. whether they are a minority or a majority, probably does not take away the power of that use case.. and many of us recognize other powers of bitcoin too.. and perhaps the value that others are able to use bitcoin in ways that we might NOT be using bitcoin, but still bring both power and value to bitcoin.

I am just saying that there is no way to keep some of the potentially bad actors out, nor abilities to cause them from attempting to be successful in their various manipulation attempts... but the mere fact that they have a lot of resources to manipulate does not necessarily mean that they understand bitcoin well enough to know that the odds might NOT be so much in their favor to be able to manipulate bitcoin in certain ways or beyond certain points.. but they might NOT realize such aspects of bitcoin until they make such attempts..

Remember fall 2017.. very interesting lessons for some BIG players trying to teach bitcoin some lessons but ending up getting schooled their lil selfies.  I remember.  There are other bitcoiners who remember, too, including some of the active members in this thread and including other parts of bitcoinlandia too, and may not be participating in this thread.
9393  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 06, 2020, 12:45:22 AM
Much improvement in btc chart since bitmex "happenings"...those f--kers were causing this endless barting-debarting, I strongly suspect.
Is there a potential causation or at least correlation? We shall see in 1 mo.

I expect a fairly significant move up in Q4 of 2020 but it’s just a bit boring & frustrating now waiting. I’m quite confident we’ll end the year over $13,000 which would set us up fantastically for the expected fireworks at some point in 2021. We’ve got to be expecting upwards of $50,000 per coin before 2022.

It is kind of sounding to me, that your BTC investment thesis has not really changed very much on account of the potential issues related to Bitmex.

Do you consider barting and debarting to affect your plans in any kind of personal way in the coming one to two years?

Actually, I though that you were expecting a bit more UPpity in 2021  - but you are allowing for the possibility that some of the UPpity might get drug into 2022?  Are you considering that some of your investment performance may have gotten delayed by circumstances surrounding Bitmex?


My bags are full & heavy, I’ve been waiting many years for what’s coming.......  

I probably should not comment on this point, beyond pointing out that I am not commenting on it.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Just to show how much room we have for growth -

@ecoinometrics
For context a $2 trillion market cap for #Bitcoin  would put one BTC at $100,000.

That's also the same market cap as Apple.

To reach the market cap of gold, one BTC would be worth about $500,000.

There is plenty of upside to come.


It appears to me, LFC, that you are not really allowing this Bitmex news to interfere with your theories, in any kind of meaningful way.  Cool

Seems totally reasonable to me.  Wink
9394  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy every dip, and HODL! on: October 05, 2020, 11:40:00 PM
What happen when the dip get dipper? The best thing is to look for change in of momentum in the market before buying the dip unless those who want to HODL for long  let says months or years. As a trader, it might not augur well.

Anyone getting in BTC would likely be well served by treating it as at least a 4 year investment, and even better if they have a longer investment time horizon, such as 10 to 20 years.

One of the best ways to make any investment is to employ dollar cost averaging techniques, and even if a person might be front loading the investment because they want to get at a certain target investment portfolio, such as having bitcoin serve as 1% of the value of the portfolio 10% or some other target accumulation amount.

So whoever is investing and attempting to reach target positions is mostly aiming at accumulating over a period of time, and of course, if they can buy some of their BTC at a lower price 10%, 20% or 50% lower, then they can accumulate more BTC, but with BTC we cannot be assured that any such dips are going to take place from whatever price point we happen to be at.

So, buying on dips can account for accumulating a bit more BTC over time, but sometimes, it is better just to make sure to get in and stop trying to worry whether you got 1 BTC for your $11k or you were able to get 1.3BTC because the price dropped 30%.

Another thing is that a person might come to BTC and they may or may not have any lump sums that they can necessarily sit on.

Therefore, if you know that you are earning a certain amount of money, but maybe you only have $100 per week extra that you might be able to spend on BTC.  You may decide to invest $50 every week on BTC no matter what, and then let the other $50 accumulate until you are comfortable buying on dips. 

After 6 months, maybe you have an extra $1,300 that has accumulated because you are waiting for dips that have not happened, and maybe you have to consider whether your reserves of cash are growing too big, or whether you are willing to continue to allow that fiat to accumulate and not to be invested in BTC at the current prices (or otherwise tweak you buying price points - quanties of buys or incremental buy spreads). 

There are ways to strategize and to plan out these kinds of BTC price points and amounts in ways that are comfortable for you and your particular situation and just to allocate that value to just buy at certain price points that you have decided in advance, if the BTC price were to reach those various dip price points.  Each of us have to establish those price points for ourselves, and my personal philosophy is to structure my reserve fiat so that I am able to keep buying if the BTC price keeps going down (so that I do not tend to run out of money, and if I do run out of money then I just HODL.. or wait for more cashflow to come in), so I have to project and budget how many dollars that I have to buy at various price points, and if more cash comes in, then I will divide that new cash up into portions that I buy some BTC right away and other portions that I plug into my reserves that are used to buy more BTC at various price points that I have already pre-established, and since I have come across new cash, I can either increase the amounts of BTC that I buy at each price point, or I can choose to dedicate some of that new money towards buying lower, in case that the BTC price goes to those lower prices.   

When I set my low buy points, I also have to feel comfortable enough that the BTC price may NOT necessarily go down to those price points and I need to feel comfortable with not necessarily filling those orders... and part of the way of feeling comfortable is to feel comfortable with the amount of BTC that I have been regularly accumulating and the longer that I have been accumulating the more comfortable I become with the whole BTC accumulation matter, presuming that with the longer passage of time, my BTC has increasingly built up and hopefully moved into decent amounts of overall profits (and likely the longer in, the more likely that the profits are greater - not guaranteed, of course, but has historically been the case).
9395  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Presidential debates on: October 05, 2020, 09:44:21 PM
Trump campaign communications director on Fox:

"The President has experience, now, fighting the coronavirus as an individual. Those firsthand experiences, Joe Biden, he doesn’t have those."

Do these experiences also cause Trump to be able to empathize with any other human besides his lil selfie?

I would suspect that one of the qualifications of any person holding a public office or seeking to hold a public office should be to attempt to represent the interests and needs of people, and seems a bit difficult if the only people that such purported representative is capable of representing is his lil selfie. 

Sure, indirectly, Trump may well end up representing some American peeps that happen to be similarly situated to himself, but seems to me that the needs and aspirations of America is much more diverse than the profile of one person, even if such person happens to be a perfect person, such as we all recognize the red-headed self-absorbed dweeb to be.
9396  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] BitMEX on: October 05, 2020, 09:28:37 PM
[edited out]

Whereas this forum is NOT the court.  And I am not an attorney-at-law representing the BitMEX (HDR) corporation and/or its executives.

Thus, I will take a stand and say, first of all, explain just why the fuck the United States is pretending to have jurisdiction here.  What is the American CFTC, a god?

Of course, I am NOT even proclaiming such a possible strategy to be unreasonable or impracticable.

Clients and attorneys discuss these kinds of strategic matters on a regular basis, and probably some teams of attorneys are more resourceful and creative than other teams.

Personally, I believe Bitfinex has done pretty well through the years, and surely we cannot always know whether some of the positive outcomes were products of skills or luck.

Why am I so vehement about this?  Besides general principle, that is.

Nothing wrong with arguing from principles.

On the other hand, it is possible that you and I (or one of us) might find out that Bitmex's behavior was more egregious than we had earlier considered, and we might adjust our opinions or maybe the strength of our opinion(s) might change with the learning of new facts and logic.

I do NOT like scammy exchanges.  Indeed, earlier this year on this forum, I got booted out of DT2 because I was gunning too hard for Yobit.  (A DT1 who was previously on good terms with me suddenly ~attacked me in another thread within 2 hours of starting to defend Yobit from me; the timestamps make the motive quite transparent.)  Now, that is a scammy exchange—but I digress...

BitMEX has always had a sterling reputation.  Now, due to this American action, I suddenly see people convicting them in the “court of public opinion”—it seems just because “American CFTC said so”.  

Of course, in some sense, you are preaching to the choir, nullius.

We have already seen quite a few nonsense arguments wanting to presume Bitmex to be criminally guilty, and I doubt that those proclaimers are more aware of the facts and/or arguments of the case than you and me.


If BitMEX were doing something really wrong, and if the evidence were brought out, then I would be the first to condemn the wrongdoing.  (Whether or not the Americans have the right to prosecute it would be another matter—they are NOT the world-police.)  But that is not what I have been seeing, these past few days.

Again.. I don't disagree with any of that.


Meanwhile, just yesterday, I popped into the BSV thread for the first time (Loyce.club archive, just in case).  And today, what do I there behold?

Third post by a “Newbie” account, obvious shill:
Re: [ANN] [BSV] BitcoinSV - Satoshi's Vision for Bitcoin
Quote
https://coingeek.com/coingeek-live-2020-regulating-the-digital-assets-industry-is-key-to-future-growth/

CoinGeek Live 2020: Regulating the digital assets industry is key to future growth
 
The days when digital assets were considered a lawless wild west which was beyond the reach of regulators is way behind us. On Day 1 of the CoinGeek Live conference, some of the leading minds in the legal industry discussed the regulation of the digital asset industry, letting us in on how to build a compliant Bitcoin business in the U.S., Japan and the European Union.

While regulators started off on the back foot in policing the digital assets industry, most of them are now catching up, Joshua Ashley Klayman told the virtual audience. Klayman is a senior counsel at Linklaters LLP, a London-based law firm with over 3,000 lawyers across the world. Based in New York, Klayman works with digital asset companies that are seeking to get into the U.S. market.

“It’s been said many times that there’s a lack of regulatory clarity. I think at this point, that’s just an excuse. I think if you engage with the regulators, you can find a path forward,” she remarked.

[...]

The subject is interesting, without trust no regulation... without regulation... no state therefore no existence. All open and in conformity with the laws. This is not the case for many other coins.

Compare:

Bitcoin is a 'common good'.
Bitmex was damaging it by 100x margin, as easy as this.
btc going down 1% wipes out the 100X long position.
can a 1btc account spoof? No. can a 10K-100K btc account do the same on mex? Absolutely.
We have speed limit signs on most highways, right? Same idea.
Bitmex is no autobahn.

I would not shear a single tear if mex is gone or curtailed (after allowing outgoing btc transfers, of course).

Resistance to the “ZOMG we need to regulate it!!! kowtow to the regulators” attitude is a major Bitcoin issue—and resistance to American world-police megalomania is a major issue to anybody who does not want to be a slave.

I cannot say that I disagree with any of that, either.

Battles for the mindspace can take a lot of time, and people are not necessarily going to agree, and surely I hope that Bitmex and their various agents are making great efforts in regards to the counsel that they seek.
9397  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2020, 08:58:51 PM
On the Bitmex drama, my thoughts.
Some bitcoin companies are like lab rats: they have been left alone to experiment things that one day will become part of the new FINancialTECHnology world. Take Bitmex: bringing futures to the next level right? or finex or any other. Then they come and tell you, hey boy, this is our territory, how do you dare?
And then they publicly admit that "Digital assets hold great promise for our derivatives market and for our economy". Yeah, right?

Thumbs up to 600watt, somac. for https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg55302340#msg55302340

With CME, Bakkt and Grayscale, the US derivate market is becoming of "significant size", which was one of the main concerns of SEC. The other - manipulations of almost anonymous high leverage traders operating on Mex is now in the process of solving. This is not only CFTC and SEC concern but possibly the main "bart generator" for the last 2 years. So in any possible way, Mex news is good for Bitcoin. The 3% drop in the price is by no means to be compared with the benefits of manipulators being kicked out of the market.

It is quite possible that the CFTC statement "Digital assets hold great promise for our derivatives market and for our economy" is related to a possible ETF approval, as also suggested in this article:
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/a-big-positive-step-towards-the-bitcoin-etf-approval/

Although, IMO, institutions will find a way to get into Bitcoin without an ETF. We've seen however, that in the last months despite the huge purchases, the price didn't move as much as it should. The only logical explanation is of course the fraudulent shorting using Mex and other not well regulated exchanges. There is also a non logical explanation. As we are normal people here, carefuly thinking about every detail, we tend to forget that there are people who are not like us. Take for example Las Vegas - how many addicted people are in the casinos losing all the cash they bring in their pockets! The same is with the addicted daily traders, who can't be called manipulators, but like vicious brainless piranhas eat the price down until their stash is gone in an endless stop loss chase. The removal of Mex shorters will tip the balance against the piranhas and in favour of the natural growth. So I applaud the CFTC action and hopefully it will shut down Mex and put their owners and other money launderers in jail, where they belong!

I did merit this post because I think the idea expressed has some plausibility.
but...
I strongly oppose the the highlighted part. it is cheap to demand jail for folks you don't know personally. the problem is that for someone this may become very personal. I was put in jail on several occasions mainly for political reasons fighting against and also breaking drug laws. jail is a serious matter. it is a very archaic punishment. to be locked into a small cell is a shocking experience.
you cannot go anywhere anymore and this has power to break your back. they wanted to lock me up for 10 years during my latest trial. the law that they used to press the charges in my case was not even anti-drug law but regarded pharmacy. the European High Court had to step in and declare the prosecutor's and court's strategy unconstitutional. the incident was more than a decade ago but the the trial is still not resolved.  for several years this 10 yer sentence was hanging above my life like a Damocles sword. with wife and kids this ain't no fun and gave me serious insights and learning experience regarding jail, police, punishment etc.  my take is that jail should be exclusively for violent crimes. not at all for drug related stuff. and scamming greedy gamblers is not on my list of things that I want the U.S. jail system to the care of. I have no clue if and to what extend Hayes did steal his customers money. if he did, a fair trial would be ok to call out for.  is there evidence that he did?  

Of course, any criminal trial has a possibility for jail time, but even if it does not, there is a higher burden of proof that governments (including Big bully USA) have in terms of proving someone to be guilty of each and every of the allegations that are alleged.  Governments do not always play fair, yet I do not know enough of the details in this case (and likely NOT too many of us do) in order to be presuming the company or the four indicted individuals to be criminally liable to the extent that those various branches of the USA govt are proclaiming / charging.

Oh look, the CFTC scares all the rats with their coins off of BitMEX, and suddenly all of the barting comes to a halt.

Gee, who woulda thunk it.

A bit early (after a mere few days) to making BTC price movement proclamations - even if you might end up being correct.
 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Much improvement in btc chart since bitmex "happenings"...those f--kers were causing this endless barting-debarting, I strongly suspect.
Is there a potential causation or at least correlation? We shall see in 1 mo.

Sure, could be, but still seems as if it is too soon to be making those kinds of price dynamic causation proclamations, even if barting/debarting were to lessen or disappear completely from here on out.
9398  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy every dip! on: October 05, 2020, 08:49:51 PM
Buy the dip cause it is an opportunity but be sure that the coin you are buying can easily recover when the market recovers, not those altcoins that when it dips it so hard for it to recover.
Buy and hold are the best investment. On the dip, we are able to buy more within our budget and we are able to hold it. After some days, we will be able to make good profit from it.

I continue to wait for the moment when market correct a bit as this gives us an opportunity to keep buying more for less price rather than other way round which people are doing and this helps me to see some of them quickly when it rises to book short term if I require money or else it is an good long term investment for me.

I discovered that you need to really study a coin daily as in constantly be watching its price so you get the opportunity and determine the right time to get in and exit point. In this game, I mean buy-sell you always have an exit strategy. One day you could be up but the next following day you may hit bottom. In crypto arena trend is the key!
We do all have that the same target or goal on to know on when to exit and when to get it but meaning of on determining the precise time? No one can tell and thats why its always a challenge
 for us to deal with this market due to its behavior when it comes to volatility or moving prices but somehow due to experience and knowledge we do able to create various strategies and ways
on how to deal with it.Even though it wont be precise but somehow it is much better option rather than doing blind entries or exits at all. Buy every dip isnt really suggested for alts.
I would rather consider this move in Btc and top ranking alts rather than going into the below ground.

Funny how many times that various posters such as Windfury and I repeat that this thread is not about buying shitcoins and it is not about attempting to time the market.

When in doubt buy bitcoin, whether it dips or NOT and of course, it is better to attempt to buy on dips, but just buying BTC on a regular basis remains better than waiting attempting to time the market and not buying enough BTC in order to feel comfortably prepared for UP.
9399  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] BitMEX on: October 05, 2020, 04:21:10 AM
Now, turning back to BitMEX, you did mention jurisdiction:

I am NOT proclaiming that the various departments of the US justice system (who are purportedly representing the interest of the US people) are without a variety of justifications, but surely they need to have jurisdiction over the matters that they are alleging and charging, and due process of law should be allowed, including in criminal cases there are presumptions of innocent until being proved guilty.  Therefore evidence needs to be shown in a court of law, and criminal cases surely have intent elements that must be proven in a court of law, too.

Whereas if jurisdiction is lacking, then why should a defendant suffer trial before a court lacking proper authority, for alleged violation of laws that do not bind the defendant?  


Of course in the law, there are various issues that are considered threshold issues, and of course, jurisdiction is one of those areas.

Of course, also some states (governments) could be superimposing jurisdiction, and surely those kinds of injustices and overbearingnesses do take place.  I agree with your earlier example of Julian Assange.  Assange likely has fairly top notch attorneys but somehow they are seeming to have difficulties limiting the case to jurisdiction and keeping the USA govt sufficiently at bay.

Why is the presumption of innocence even an issue?  Why should proofs be sought?

I agree with you also that jurisdiction seems to be even more foundational in terms of threshold issues than presumption of innocence.

Sometimes attorneys will argue issues that are further up the ladder because if they end up losing on some of the more foundational / threshold issues and they present NO arguments on the other matters, then they would end up losing everything merely based on losing on the threshold issue.  Some lawyers and clients are going to be more willing to stick to ONLY arguing the one issue - but many times, they do end up arguing the other issues, too, while at the same time NOT waiving their right to be totally correct on the foundational/threshold issue that allows the bringing of the case in the first place.


If a tinpot dictator on the other side of the world were to pass, within his jurisdiction, a decree that I, personally, am completely banned from Bitcoin, and if I were to violate his “law”, then should I seek “due process” in his court?  Or should I laugh?

The law can be pretty god damned crazy, sometimes, because it is NOT really uncommon for attorneys to make internally inconsistent arguments, just to make sure that their bases are all covered - but frequently also, they will make their strongest arguments first, and sometimes cut off weaker arguments in order to NOT seem to be grappling at straws ... but I would think that the vast majority of western judges are well able to accept that parties will sometimes make inconsistent arguments... but still tactically, sometimes, it may well be better to just stick to the stronger arguments and to eliminate the weaker and inconsistent arguments or the non-threshold arguments - like you seem to be suggesting.

On these types of issues, the only difference between that hypothetical tinpot dictator and the United States is guns, more guns, bombs, more bombs, tanks, aircraft carriers, ballistic missiles, and nuclear warheads, plus the economic and political muscle to seduce or coerce other countries’ corrupt governments without even bothering to shoot up and incinerate a bunch of civilians.

Of course, those kinds of hard powers do allow some countries to be BIGGER bullies than other countries would be capable of being outside of their territories.

I am more inclined to presume that injustices are taking place on the side of the accused, when I see members posting about the guilt of these various players way before evidence has even been adequately described (and sure in the court of public opinion, we might even be relying upon more flimsy evidence regarding how we might feel about the situation).

^^^ THIS.

I am alarmed and, frankly, a little bit shocked at the general tenor of some of the talk here.

Of course, many of us are going to have differing opinions here, and some member will change their minds and their positions with the passage of time.  Historically, my mind has been changed on topics (sometimes in BIG ways and sometimes merely tweakenings of my ideas and maybe better buttressing or even eliminating some of the rationales that I had previously thought) after participating in thread discussions of various matters.

Just how did this U.S. government action suddenly, within a matter of days, so blacken the name of an exchange that, to my knowledge, has had a sterling reputation?  There are exchanges with credible scam accusations, theft under the rubric of “shotgun KYC”, rampant shitcoin pump-and-dump pushing, and all manner of other sleazy shenanigans.  I have never heard any such thing about BitMEX—still haven’t.  And now, some people are suddenly talking about them as criminals just because a U.S. prosecutor said so!

You and I seem to recognize a lot of these same facts, logic and conclusions, and I would not write off too many of the WO members as if you think that they do not have a brain because several of them will likely come around or at least, consider and reconsider the facts, the logic and their conclusions (opinions) with the passage of time.  

On the other hand, it is possible that you and I (or one of us) might find out that Bitmex's behavior was more egregious than we had earlier considered, and we might adjust our opinions or maybe the strength of our opinion(s) might change with the learning of new facts and logic.


There’s an old saying—I don’t know where I first heard it—that in the United States, a prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich.

Before you brought it up, I was familiar with that expression, too.  I am not sure how old such expression is.

I quickly googled the expression, and I found this in wikipedia:

>>>>New York State chief judge Sol Wachtler was famously quoted by Tom Wolfe in The Bonfire of the Vanities that "a grand jury would 'indict a ham sandwich,' if that's what you wanted."<<<<

Yes, the expression suggests that the prosecutor has a lot of power and ability to persuade juror members into doing what they want in terms of being able to get an indictment.

All I see thus far is news that, at first impression, looks very much like regulatory and prosecutorial overreach from a country that collectively acts as if it were the emperor of the world.

What else is new?  I see that, too.

Note:  I have no connection to BitMEX, and no financial interest in the foregoing statement.  My experience with centralized exchanges is pretty much nil; and I don’t know anybody at BitMEX.

I doubt that there is any need to make this kind of disclaimer because we should assume that you do not have such connections... but if you were to have such connections, there might be a need for you to disclose such information, perhaps?
9400  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: October 05, 2020, 03:26:03 AM

Either you are close to reaching "fuck you" status, or you have already reached it.

Either of those scenarios would be good newses.


Alternatively, you wrongly believe that you have reached "fuck you" status in regards to you are in a kind of denial state about possible "master(s)" that you are failing/refusing to recognize or grant proper credit(s).  That would suck.  Cry

Curious question: If one were to finally achieve "fuck you" status level, what would be the motivation to continue posting around here?

Asking for a friend.

So you believe the only reason to be here is to achieve a goal and then leave?

I feel sorry for anyone in that catagory.


I was joking of course, because otherwise I would have been out of here long ago.  Wink

But clearly that has been the only goal of so many judging from how many posters have dropped off over the years. Sad really.

With the passage of time, it seem to me that we have more regulars in this thread - members who provide decent ongoing contributions, and fewer trolls, too.


(...)

I seriously worry about being able to "cash out" when "fuck you" rich. I fear that, by that time, all the cameras, guns, machetes, rusty pipes and what have you, will be pointing at us HoDLers, even going so far as to label us criminals, DPR v.2 (or is it v.3?), or some other "guilty-until-proven-innocent" accusation. It all depends on how "accepted" Bitcoin will be at that point. And, as you know, timescales in Bitcoin time are very short, meaning that we'll know quite soon. It's all good to imagine an ideal world where TPTB have accepted and even endorsed Bitcoin, but I don't think this will be an easy battle. We may win, but there will be blood.

Of course this "cashing out" may not even be necessary, if things play out in Bitcoin's favour, and BTC (or satoshi, or whatever fraction of a satoshi results from a 2nd layer solution, should 1 BTC > $1M) ends up being usable in buying everyday goods and services. This would be an ideal situation, in which BTC's intrinsic value stays in the BTC realm and we directly use it to survive (food, shelter, Lambos, hookers, blow, the usual necessities). But, somehow, I don't think it will be that easy. Not when the establishment sees their power taken away. They won't surrender without a fight.

My advice is to be prepared for any possible outcome. Personally, I'm more exposed to BTC than I am to more traditional investments, but I can surely survive (and ever enjoy the occasional little pleasures—but nowhere near "fuck you" rich status) without touching my BTC. I just follow the "invest what you can afford to lose" motto, while at the same time supporting and firmly believing that Bitcoin will succeed.

In short, as Bitcoin's value is rising, my feelings are bittersweet. Sweeter than bitter, of course, but there's always that aftertaste you get when chewing a dirty piece of paper...

(...)



Alcohodl, it is ok to get fkn rich due to years of hardened bitcoin hodl. you don't need to be scared. you earned it and folks will admire you for it. I doubt that bitcoiners will have to fear getting robbed more than the casual millionaire next door.

you deserve it because you went down the rabbit whole and put money in some magic internet money shit when everyone laughed about it. you helped this revolution get ignited, you carried the torch in a critical time of its existence. when it was vulnerable.

the bitcoin KI will not forget you and will reward you royally.

it will be easy. the difficult times were the gut wrenching multiyear bears. the next difficult times are now. but the future is bright, bro.

and.. how do you sleep with less than 90% bitcoin exposure?  Cheesy

You see.

It's confirmed that this whole thing is going to be o.k.

Sure, it may not quite be as rosey as 600watt is seeming to make it out to be, including possibilities that some liquidation avenues might dry up from time to time or the terms of the offering of liquidation services may change from time to time and vary based on location.

At the same time, while some liquidation avenues close, other liquidation avenues are likely going to open up too.

How the fuck do we have Bitmex getting prosecuted the fuck out of (at least the filing of criminal charges and putting one of the founders into custody as a kind of hostage situation) - while at the same time, have places like Wyoming authorizing Kraken to become its first bitcoin bank, and people (companies) like Michael Saylor investing around 85% of his company's cash reserves into directly owning bitcoin and other companies like Grayscale and Square equally purchasing nearly the whole new bitcoin mining amount on a daily basis.

We should not be just focusing on the doom and gloom news or even wishing away any bad news by creating a rosey scenario, instead we just need to play out these matters while keeping the vast majority of our coins secured (by ourselves) and maintain and potentially explore and practice some of the liquidation methods on a somewhat regular basis to make sure that there are a few options that exist, for us personally, and if some of our options dry up, then we likely need to seek (and expand into) other liquidation avenues.
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