I would not characterize Microstrategy's investment of $425 million as exactly NOT "big amounts of money," and I would not even suggest that  August or September (or whenever the exact dates of their purchases were not exactly NOT before the US elections.


Do we really know?


Not a bad theory.



This part seems to be true... or at least highly probable.


Seems like a pretty damned BIG ASS generalization.


Not a likely scenario, but surely it could happen like that.
 

Volume is not exactly easy to measure.  Are you getting across all sources?
 

Again you are presuming that people are bored.

Some people are considerably content where bitcoin is at currently, even if it does not go shooting up to $100k in the next 3 to 24 months.

Where should the supposed anxious ones look (to the extent that they even exist)?

Defi?



This first part of your post makes sense...  and I almost sent an smerit, merely based on this making sense kind of thingie.


The conclusion that you make seems detached, as if you don't even understand what the fuck bitcoin is.

Are you spending too much time translating Eth in to BTC that you forgot how BTC is distinguishable from any kind of other coin?

I am not trying to be argumentative Phillip, but sometimes it seems that you are failing to appreciate some multifaceted aspects of bitcoin, and surely, I am not taking for granted that bitcoin is not going to continue to be challenged in a variety of ways.. but merely because bitcoin has a lot of present and future struggles should not necessarily mean that we should be focusing on the obstacles rather than appreciating a lot of the progress that it has already made in terms of  a lot of the networking effects and building that has already been accomplished and is also reflected in its ongoing bullish price and as a kind of check against the various problems of traditional money and governmental systems.

Surely bitcoin is not going to solve all of the problems, but surely bitcoin is a contender in this whole space that is going to help to make and to keep traditional institutions more honest than they otherwise had been incentivized to be.

This same question was brought up by Ratimov a month ago (see below), and I was thinking about the question - and I believe that it is totally unnecessary for the interviewer to answer the same questions as he is posing towards his various guests.

So, in some sense, maybe later down the road, he might want to answer the various questions - but interviewers tend to be the ones seeking the information from others.


Of course, there could be a way to get some of us others to attempt to assist in the interviewing of various bitcoin talk forum members, but so far, I have not contacted the regular folks with whom I interact and/or asked them to participate in this thread.

I suppose if we proclaim that there really is no interviewer, then the interview process would have the potential of becoming more decentralized and merely there becomes a desire to get forum members to answer the same questions - but in some other way, interviews will tend to be more tailored towards the interviewee... like the area of (or subject matter) expertise of the interviewee.

Great interviews will tend to have a lot more individually tailored questions, and at the interviewers discretion, some standard questions might be asked - however, i do tend to appreciate the interviewers who might ask the same questions of various interviewees, but they phrase their questions in such a way that the audience might not even realize that the same question is being asked... (perhaps a bit more difficult to accomplish when the questions are written and presented in advance).

Fair enough.

I don't claim to be accurate, insightful and/or profound in all matters of memery, if there were such a practice.

Contrary to the beliefs and wishes of some, I remain a mere mortal, who just tries his/her/they/its best under whatever time and creativity (or lack thereof) pressure and other personal circumstances that are then in play.


I did not realize that I had an "adjusted" portion of DCA strategy, and sure, likely I have been all over the place throughout the years in terms of how DCA might be applied, so whatever aspect of DCA strategy might have been adjusted may have been tweaked since the time of my at-issue statement, no? 

I doubt that this thread is very focused on the selling aspect in regards to your bitcoin strategy...

Look at the title of the thread.

The focus here remains about accumulating bitcoin and how to do it, so sure if you have reached your BTC accumulation goals, then you can start to consider the extent to which selling might fit into your BTC maintenance plans... but seems to me that the focus of this thread remains accumulation rather than maintenance or even taking profits in dollars.

There are a lot of examples in BTC history of folks who either failed to accumulate enough BTC or sold too much too soon.

I do believe that there are some BIGGER companies that are able to source large quantities of BTC, even perhaps approaching quantities of 38k-ish over the counter (OTC).... but sure, maybe they are sourcing from a few different places including getting some of their BTC on exchanges, too..

Think about Grayscale and square and folks like that.  

Maybe some of them source in 1k to 5k increments from different places?  I surely don't proclaim to know any inner-working particulars except that some of those kinds of BIGGER player companies do seem to be acquiring a decent number of BTC on a regular basis.

See the most recent chart (below) about grayscale's and square's regular and ongoing BTC accumulations in fillippone's Grayscale thread.. and also seems that a third-quarter update should be forthcoming, too  (get to work, fillippone!!!!).

You are overstating the claim in order to get caught up in the weeds...

You do have fiduciary responsibilities when you are handling other people's money, and surely claims are made based on industry standards, whether you are going along with standards, whether you have reasonable basis for the various investments that you make and how well you are making disclosures to those people entrusting you with their money.


Great.  I am looking forward to you saying something smart and/or helpful.


We surely need people with experience and common sense to be contributing ideas, that's for sure.


I was talking about disclosures and allowance for any bitcoin skeptics to get out of the company before the company entered into the bitcoin investment.

Furthermore, this particular company seems to have had a decent amount of additional flexibility beyond regular companies since it seems that Saylor holds a majority voting share, so in essence, he is able to do whatever the fuck he wants - and surely, he is covering his ass extra when he both discloses to shareholders and his board of directors what he is planning to do, gives the board opportunities for input and gives both shareholders and board members sufficient and adequate opportunities to get the fuck out (even at a then premium), if they so choose.


Are you distracted?  What does that have to do with anything?


As I have already discussed, we can agree to disagree on this aspect, mr expert.


I don't need to pick any lane.  People can decide what the fuck they want to do.

Of course, Saylor and Microstrategy took a way more aggressive position than many companies or individuals would do.

I generally recommend that people start out by assessing bitcoin in terms of their overall quasi-liquid investment portfolio and that they take somewhere between 1% and 10% allocation in bitcoin.  Of course, higher up is more aggressive and lower down is a lot more conservative, but in the end of the day, each person has to decide for himself where they want to start and if they feel that they are justified at any point of the range or going beyond the range.

There is no fucking exact one stop objective answer regarding how much to allocate into bitcoin, exactly.

They have to calculate based on their own situation to figure out the extent that they are adequately balancing their risks based on the variety of factors, and of course, companies might have some factors that go beyond what individuals would consider, but they are going to be similar to the individual factors which are:  cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other assets, timeline, risk tolerance and time, skills and abilities to plan, learn along the way and tweak along the way which includes reallocating and trading if suiting.


I think that if as time goes along, and a lot of BIG ASS companies and traditional financial people are both taking positions in bitcoin and putting information out there regarding their reasons for doing so, and if you are a fiduciary who keeps his/her head in the sand and failing/refusing to consider certain kinds of investments, such as bitcoin, then you may well be found to be fiducially irresponsible at some future date.. especially the more and more that information is out there and becoming more mainstream and you as a fiduciary are burying your head in the sand.  You better at least look into the matter.. and maybe we are not close to that kind of necessity yet, but down the road, you might start to look like a goddamned fool if you keep your money in cash and fail to protect the value of your investment when it appears quite likely that cash is NOT a great place to keep your value in the longer term.. especially looking at a timeline of at least a few years.


Well, I am glad that you at least looked into the matter.  Better than just spouting out random ideas without even looking into the matter, as you had done previously.

Regarding your still being convinced that bitcoin is NOT a good investment  or that Microstrategy took too strong of a position in bitcoin, that is your choice.  

I had heard those kinds of nonsense claims plenty of times in the past nearly seven years (that i have been watching this space) regarding bitcoin not being a good investment, and it seems that bitcoin's investment thesis is even stronger today than it had been 7 years ago, 4 years ago or even 2 years ago.  

Seems to me that the longer that bitcoin is in existence and continues to be developed upon with a variety of strengthening network effects under metcalfe principles and even Trace Mayer's outlining of network effects, the more compelling that the investment thesis of bitcoin seems to become.


He seems pretty articulate on the bitcoin topic, and seems to have studied up on it pretty quickly...

I think that he asserted that he first started looking into bitcoin in about mid 2019 after he had sold one of his domain names (Voice.com).. but then it seems that his research into the bitcoin matter ramped up after the mid-March 2020 liquidation situation... and witnessing the extreme of the money printer go bbbbrrrrr reaction that was being taken.. that seems to have caused him considerable lack of confidence in regards to the seeming impending robbing of value of the about $500 million that his company had in cash reserves.

So, yeah, he was trying to figure out some ways to deal with the situation that he was perceiving and communicating that to his board members and share holders.. and his quick study of the matter does not appear to be flailing as a leader, even if your assessment of the proper direction differs from the direction that Saylor took to try to figure out the matter and to try to create some strategies and plans to go forward based on the cards that he has (rather than the cards he wished that he had).

 

Sure.  Those matters might be relevant, regarding his character and his competencies, perhaps.  He still seems to have a pretty decent grasp of bitcoin, and sure each of us have to come to our own assessment, including him, if he was the one that was leading the charge towards his allocation (or perhaps overallocation) in bitcoin.

 

Sure, they likely had evidence that some of his past behaviors were violative of SEC standards, and for the most part, previous settlements are not allowed to be brought into future cases, unless there are some kind of exigent circumstances.

In any event, I am not sure what you are getting at, here?  You believe that Saylor might be engaging in some kind of legally problematic behaviors?  Maybe he was able to get better legal advice this time around in terms of learning from past errors that he may have made?  I doubt that you can really proclaim that currently, Saylor is violating some kind of SEC standard in terms of his recently having taken a seemingly aggressive investment stance in BTC, merely because he had some issues with the SEC in the past.

You do realize that CEOs who are majority shareholders tend to be pretty eccentric kinds of creatures and maybe even arrogant and gambler types, but that does not necessarily mean that they are necessarily making bad decisions or that they might not have adequately balanced the various factors in these circumstances for themselves (or their company) even if you, personally, would have decided those matters differently, less aggressively and/or more conservatively.

 

Not unusual, and seems to be a pretty decently BIG "so what?"
 

Huh?  I don't remember doing any of that.

Bitcoin will do fine with Saylor or not..

Honey badger does not give any shits, but surely, the news is surprisingly bullish for bitcoin, even though such happenings is no kind of condition precedent for bitcoin.

Bitcoin is quite likely to have very decent upside whether Saylor et al get on board or not, even if the contagious behavior of saylor's action might cause BTC to have pumpenings that end up being greater than expected.

Who know?  

Personally, I hardly give any shits.

Sure, I become more richie if BTC prices go up, but I am pretty well off already, including in terms of my BTC investment and I have other investments too... yet the fact that BTC's 200 week moving average continues moving UPpity does seem to be quite bulllish too, on an ongoing basis...

Right now Bitcoin's 200 week moving average is about $6,700, so that remains quite amazing with the passage of time continuing to go up.

 

Good.  Let him do whatever the fuck he wants to do... If he wants to shave off some profits on the way up, then he has that choice, because bitcoin is pretty damned liquid.

Even if you are trying to suggest that Saylor might have bad intentions to dump on the market and to buy lower, he does not really seem to be playing that game, but whatever, those are his bitcoins (of course his company's) and he can do whatever the fuck he wants.




Who's dying?  I accomplished the vast majority of my initial BTC accumulation in 2014, so I have largely been in a BTC maintenance stage ever since late 2014.  Sure, I have accumulated some additional BTC after late 2014, and I have even engaged in some trading strategies with some of my BTC stash, but I am NOT like in any kind of desperate position on any kind of personal basis.

Regarding other investors they have to decide for themselves what they are going to do in regards to investing in bitcoin, if at all.  That is their choice.  Like I said, I suggest a 1% to 10% allocation into bitcoin as a starting point, but of course, any person investing into bitcoin needs to figure out his/her individual circumstances - regarding what their BTC accumulation goal is and how to get there and how to manage such BTC once they get into a maintenance stage - and sure some people will go into liquidation stages too.

Currently, I personally consider BTC to be a longer term investment with a minimum of a 4 year investment time horizon, and of course, the longer the investment time horizon the better.  When I got into BTC, I was quite a bit more hesitant about how much confidence regarding investing beyond one or two years, but these days there seem to be a lot more developments and even underlying confidence building in the strength of bitcoin's foundations that should allow a large number of folks to create and to practice at least a 4 year investment timeline - and surely, if they do not have 4 years, then surely they have to adjust their strategies accordingly because that seems more like gambling rather than investing, which personally I do not recommend.

Of course, no one who gets into bitcoin is necessarily locked into the investment, so they should ensure that they have ways to get out of the investment, if they so choose, do not invest more than they can afford to lose, and also appreciate that they can liquidate (some or all) at any time of their own choosing, even though I am recommending to come into bitcoin with at least a 4 year investment timeline... people ultimately have to choose for themselves and they are responsible for their own investment choices including whether they feel that they need to tweak their investment strategies, or to diversify in or out of bitcoin within their own determinations and discretion.
 

You seem to be a petty twat, jaysabi, who fails and refuses to appreciate the forest for the trees.  

There remain all kinds of factors beyond the one that you are focusing upon, so if you merely want to frame my various ideas on the topic in that way, then that seems to reflect more upon your own myopic stance, rather than my own.

Hopefully you, on a personal level, have NOT failed or refused to take any kind of actual position in bitcoin rather than spouting out what seems to be ongoing nonsense that nocoiners tend to spout out.

Are you recommending any kind of modest position in BTC at all rather that what seems to be Microstrategy's more aggressive BTC approach, or what exactly are you recommending in regards to BTC? Or are you just maniacally focused upon whether a future lawsuit against fiduciaries staying in cash rather than taking a position in bitcoin would be a viable possible lawsuit, when it hardly even matters in the whole scheme of things whether such future possible lawsuit might be viable or not.. hardly even a center of focus, or shouldn't be from my point of view.

FTFY by adding a meme in order to make the idea more meaningful:







Hashrate up 11.35% to record levels in the last difficulty adjustment (less than 7 days ago)


Based on continuing computer power thrown at bitcoin, Hashrate estimated to go up nearly another 6% in about 7 days from now.

https://btc.com/stats/diff?_ga=2.166892222.1079250679.1586286038-48233127.1586286038

Well, hopefully, I have not been completely voted off the island, yet... I might even get "my day" taken away - just to teach me a lesson about new developments in bitcoinlandia (apparently, I did not get the memo)  - the "non-value' of memes.    Whachagonna do next?  Take away emojis?  


From here on out, no more meaningless memes, Toxic... You fuck.  

I am merely a conduit...for this message.. so don't shoot me...

Mums the word on that particular topic from here on out, unless someone asks directly, I am not volunteering nuttin further... Call it Opsec, if you will.   


Well, if you don't go "all in" you might be able to live to tell about it.

Perhaps?

Yes...

Ethereum is a shitcoin...

Don't buy it..

Don't even take it for free.  



Have you ever heard of the expression:  "a picture is worth a thousand words"?

In essence, memes cause posts to be shorter, especially if they do not need to be explained. 

 

Well, overall, I had come across that meme on an earlier search for another meme, so for about a day or two, I was somewhat subconsciously thinking about somewhere that I might insert such meme into the conversation, because I loved the idea contained within the meme.  

Anyhow, maybe I was a bit desperate to find a fit for such meme (admission against interest), so I was merely trying to squeeze or insert such meme into some conversation, any conversation.. and my back and forth with Biodom seemed to have been the first place that kind of worked for the meme.. maybe not working precisely or perfectly... but surely, close enough for govt (not that I am employed or directed by any such govt) or internet forum work... ... so there, fortuitously, she got added to the sharing of idea'ers on the interwebs, with someone special (namely Biodom, nohomo).

You come off as so random, sometimes, Biodom.

I am NOT trying to poo poo your intuition because surely each of us has rights to our feelings, even if we feel as if we cannot express them well or we feel that we cannot identify exactly why we feel the way that we do.

Surely, whatever various whale forces that are out there, whether they are genuine or not (meaning that some of them might use FUD spreading and all kinds of tactics in order to take advantage of BTC price momentum to push BTC prices further and longer than anyone had expected), any kind of rational and knowledgable person in regards to the BTC space should have gotten some kind of feeling of relief by the time we had gotten to the summer of 2019..... holy fuck, Biodom, in summer 2019, you really were feeling the opposite, as if "something smells fishy?"

I don't get it.  In the end of 2018 and in early 2019, we were faced with shit-fuck November/December capitulation from $6k to nearly $3k.. so we were kind of fucked and in a bit of a pickle...  and thereafter floating in the $3ks that lasted for more than 3 months.    Not good.. Not good.  I was there.

Holy fucking shit, Biodom, we got 3.5x BTC price appreciation from $4,200 to $13,880 within 3 months (from April 1 to the end of June 2019), and even if such BTC price appreciation was not sustainable, it materially delivered a way the fuck better situation than we were facing throughout 2015.. and bitcoin pumped and shitcoins just sat there like bumps on the log (and many even lost value during that time - especially relative to BTC prices).  

In comparison, in 2015, we got nearly nothing all year.. hardly any ray of hopium through much of the year.  We had one price run in July that brought us from $250 to $317, and then we reverted into the mid $200s for the rest of the year, until the end of October, we did not get shit...

So, holy fucking shit, Biodom, you really believe that bearwhales or whoever the fuck else wants to keep BTC prices down really wanted BTC prices to go up 3.5x in three months? when there could have just as reasonably been a BTC price correction down to $1,500 or lower, and that could have easily been our fate for 2019.. Personally, I was relieved as fuck to NOT have to experience a correction down to $1,500 or lower , even though it would have been well within reasonable possibilities regarding where we were at and how much manipulation could have been carried out by some parties that may have been a bit more determined to cause it to happen.

Sure, I would have continued to buy.. but I would not have liked it.

Sure, I would have continued to be a bull(tard), but I would have had quite a bit less pep in my step.

Sure, further corrections, like that (down to sub $1,500) would have likely caused quite a bit more time to recover (and likely would have purged a whole fucking lot of shit coins), and I would have beared through it, and accumulated more bitcoin and felt a bit resentful.

I am surely glad that we had a pump, rather than a dump in early 2019... and no fucking whimpy pump.... an actual fucking amazing face melting pump that left even the greatest of bulls with their mouths hanging open... did you see jojo during that time?  nervous like a little girl.  And, completely shut Searing up for quite a long time, too.  Sure the dude was his usual bullish cheerfulness, but I know that behind the scenes, he was slapping himself in the face to make sure that he was not merely within some kind of non HODL pattern nightmare.

Anywhoo... 2019... great as fuck year for our lil fiend, aka kingdaddy.




Sure, I was there Biodom, by the time we got to early 2017, we were already gaining momentum.. and little whiny fucktwat BIG blockers were trying to ruin dee moo all year long and we continued to gravitate upwards and kind of got caught in a $2k holding pattern for a few months around the forkening and those various disputes... but they were pretty resolutely resolved in favor of bitcoin for anyone "in the know" who could see what was actually happening while the whole situation remained confusing.. the outcome was bullish as fuck and was shown in the price exasperation... similar to the pump of April to June 2019.. the pump of October to December 2017 was filled with outrageous exuberance... partly fueled by bitcoin's victory over a bunch of shittwats and even BIG business folks trying to tell king daddy what to do.. and king daddy was not having it.  

You can read that 2017 blow off top, however, you would like to read it.. and even weigh whatever factors that you want to weigh because there are always going to be various interpretations of what happened and what effect that situation has on our current situation (where we are at now), and where we are more likely to go from here.



So?  

King daddy is coiling.. whether you want to see it or not.

You can get all worried about bitcoin is not going to go up, and sure, there could be another correction down to $6k or whatever, but does not negate the fact that king daddy is continuing to coil.. even if it takes a while to play out (perhaps even a bit longer than we might have hoped.. and that continues to be how weak hands are shaken.. keep the price down for longer than anyone expects and lower than anyone expects it to go, and then when they lose control of it (those diptwats betting on down); hopefully they are not on the wrong side when the regression to the mean (UPpity) is likely to take place and to cause violent upside that is way worse than it should be based on BTC's price being held down for too long and too low.

You can deny it all you like, and surely I am not saying that anything is guaranteed, either..

For example, we could get all kinds of deviation from the various BTC price prediction models, but that would not necessarily cause them to be broken.. but they might need to be adjusted somewhat...

And, guess the fuck who would like you (us) to believe that the BTC price prediction models are broken?  The ones who are wanting to part you from your coins.  That's who.



Sure bitcoin has a variety of free marketers.. and people who are touting out all kinds of pro-btc stuff, but surely small group of people are really in charge, and they each have a right to say whatever they want, pump whatever messages they like too.  Some of the messages will resonate and some will not.

And who fucking gives any shits about those two... I mean, sure, I listen to Pomp regularly, but have you ever looked at the Bitcoin podcasting space?  Holy fucking shit?  It is way the fuck BIGGER than it was in 2016.  I cannot even come close to listening to the podcasts that are in my feed, and I tend to listen to a lot of them at 2x and even to skim through a lot of them in order to focus on the better content... and my point is that the material is way more prolific, profound and amazing... there are so many fucking smart people who are involved in bitcoin and putting out all kinds of content, and they are way the fuck newer than you and me, Biodom.

I mean you, Biodom, have probably been involved in bitcoin at least as long as me, if NOT a bit longer, and some of these new guys (and even a gal or so, here and there) had only come into bitcoin in recent times such as 2017 or sometimes I hear fucking geniuses who have only been into bitcoin for a year or even a bit longer than that... it is amazing how smart some of them are, and contributing to the bitcoin ideas and marketing of bitcoin space for free.. and we surely do not need to agree with them.. and we can take what we like and leave what we like.

And hopefully, in the end, we are using various information and perspectives to better hone our own ideas in order that we can better know whatwegonnadu.. back to the original questions regarding allocations that help each of us to personally figure out our own situation in order to figure out how are we going to allocate in order to pee pare our lil selfies both psychologically and financially for either UP or DOWN (or the rare event of sideways).

We should be able to plan these matters out in order that we are comfortable no matter what direction our lil fiend goes
and we are not emotional about it.

You already have a pretty decent idea what I do, right?  I buy if it goes down and I sell if it goes up... and on an ongoing basis, I try to create set ups in which I am completely neutral regarding what direction she goes.  Sure there are sometimes very long periods (such as a month or longer) that none of my orders fill.. and sure sometimes if the price goes shooting down, I end up buying a bunch of BTC, but I might feel a bit irritated that I am quite a bit less rich than I was prior to the shooting down of the price, but largely we have seen through the years that the BTC price recovers, and my price per BTC continue to go down and the quantity goes up.. except when the BTC price goes shooting up, then the quantity of my BTC goes down, but the value of my BTC portfolio is worth way more than what it had been prior to the shooting up.  

It all seems to work..

I mean we are much better off than 2015 when the BTC was in the mid $200s for most of the year.

we are much better off than 2016 when the BTC bounced between $350 and $700 for most of the year, and finally got meaningfully above $700 at the end of the year.

Sure the price peaked in 2017, but don't we feel better off because the lowest of the BTC dip in December 2018 was $3,124...

Does that not feel better than earlier, and gosh we are playing around with mid-$10ks.. and feels pretty good to me.

I don't care whether we go up or not, even though I will be much MOAR richie if we were to happen to go up rather than sideways (not too likely) or down.. and hopefully we do not go below the 200 Week moving average, which is $6,700-ish as I type.....

So, as the 200 week moving average continues to go up with the passage of time, currently approaching gains of $100 per week... i am just feeling more and MOAR richie with the passage of time, and for the past several months, I have been glad to be introduced and to start using the 200 week moving average as my BTC price bottom measuring point... I think that the 200 week moving average is pretty conservative and reasonable to use as a running BTC price bottom reference point..

Maybe I am delusional?

But the whole situation continues to feel good man.

I thought that I responded to all points.   You were the one protecting the it is correlated thesis.. and I was saying nonsense.. and you believe that I needed to provide more evidence, perhaps?  which I believe that I provided more than enough..

 In any event, you likely realize that no one knows the future, but the three most dominant bitcoin price prediction models have some pretty decent ways in which you can be helped to determine how to allocate, if that is the problema on your mind, currently...

You know the models as well as me, even if you might not give much credence to any of them or their combined power... which are: 1) stock to flow 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve adoption based on networking effects and metcalfe principles.

Sure, if you have been in bitcoin for a while, then you have already past what i had already suggested several times to be a minimum of a 4-year investment timeline for your bitcoins, and so if you are adding another 3 years on to your timeline, minimum, then what are you wanting me to suggest that you consider?  

You want to speculate correlation blah blah blah, and you seem to be worried about volatility in the future, especially that downside volatility could happen at various points that might not be convenient for you, either psychologically or financially.

I already suggested the possibility of lessening your investment in BTC if you are so worried that you might have too much in and you cannot tolerate the possible benefits of bitcoin might NOT be as great as the possible corrections, due to correlation theories, and if you believe that bitcoin is not any better than stocks, gold or whatever you are considering as a possible reallocation of the value of your investment.

Regarding timeline, you well know that someone in his/her 20s is going to have longer investment time horizons as compared with someone in his/her 30s, 40s, 50s or 60s... and surely someone in his 30s or 40s, might become a bit worried if s/he were to pull any kind of fuck you lever too early.. so might well be in a harder place to actually start to divest (or liquidate) any of their bitcoin so they may well be willing to stick to longer investment time horizons... so death woould not be immediately on the minds of the folks in the lower end of the age-spectrum.

I have surely NOT been suggesting that peeps should not have shorter-term plans to make your "we are all dead" statement make any sense.  

Based on ongoing comments from you over the past several months, you seem to be who has high expectations of your minimum portfolio value to need to be something like $6million and accordingly seeming to be way more reluctant to suggest the pulling of any kind of fuck you lever, as compared to me considering that $2million might be more of a realistic aim.. though I am not really against anyone who feels a need for some kind of cushion.. so I have been recently ongoingly considering the 200 week moving average as a good Bitcoin price calculation point.. which is currently at about $6,700.

 Surely, if you are not even considering the fuck you stage, then you would be merely considering how much of your value to allocate into bitcoin or to reallocate out of bitcoin in the even that you believe that the BTC price might be appreciating faster than you believe to be sustainable.. ..

In other words, you seem to be the one who is ongoingly fearing the blow off top and those kinds of ways to protect yourself from downside volatility.. which likely says more about your overallocation into bitcoin than anything or at least your need to get more comfortable with whatever allocation levels that you have chosen and your plan to deal with possible blow off tops or other kinds of downside volatility - especially if you are starting to contemplate that BTC upside scenarios might not even be coming to bitcoin.     which hopefully does not cause you to sell too much too soon or fail to sufficiently invest.., which could well happen when you have those kinds of fears, too.

In the end, I have hardly any kind of idea what you are saying, except that bitcoin might end up turning into being correlated to various other investment possibilities that you have such as stocks, gold blah blah blah, which surely might be true, but it might not as well, so hopefully you are adequately prepared for the scenario that bitcoin might not be as correlated as you are anticipating it to be.  Go figure what it is that you have been saying, exactly?  

Perhaps the below image captures the seemingly ambiguous position that you currently find ur lil selfie?



 

You can call it "verbiage" if you want.  I was merely attempting to give you an explanation and to respond to your various points.


Of course, I already looked at the various timelines.  The longer that you have been in bitcoin the BIGGER the disparities between bitcoin and the two other assets (gold and equities).

That is not saying anything different from what i said, or points that I was making.

The actual website does not really matter... it is just an easy peasy way of showing comparisons.  I doubt that it really differs much from other websites (except for there is an ability to plug in dollar cost averaging investment information), it is just easy to reference.    




You can live in a pie in the sky world too, and hope that you end up being correct.


You are coming off as a bit of a wishful thinking goofball rather than someone who is really trying to account for actual facts.

These same claims of correlation had been made before, too.  You can take other periods of time in which bitcoin had been performing somewhat flat, like in 2011, 2012 and 2015, 2016, and the same kinds of claims of correlation could have been made.. and sometimes they were... at least in 2015/2016... but I was not around in 2011/2012 and of course, Bitcoin was much smaller back then, too.


For newcomers it is better to take a long investment horizon and build your investment, and 10 or 20 years, will have good chances of appreciating against other assets or other investments..

that better form of money nonsense largely died with the BIG blockers and those nonsense narratives, even though those narratives continue to exist somewhat in a less predominant form.

On an individual basis, of course, you can find people who think all kinds of nonsensical things... so there is that angle, too.,, You can proclaim "maybe people think" blah blah blah..,. but seems like nonsense. Maybe you think those things, and you are suggesting that other people think those same things, too?


Personally, I am already prepared for that... so no problema with me.... I was thinking at least 5.5% when I got into bitcoin in late 2013, and it largely has performed way above expectations, even though it took a bit of time (3 years-ish) for my first purchased coins to be profitable.


Who knows... ?

Seems likely that BIG drawdowns will continue to occur... and those 50% daily drops could happen too.., from time to time... Maybe you should just get out of bitcoin now so that you don't have to worry about 50% drawdowns.. you could get out right now, or maybe slowly between now and $17k..   If you don't want to sell all of it, just sell most of it, so that you are not so psychologically bothered.. Perhaps you are a bit over invested since you are suggesting that some of those possible considerable volatility events happenings are too much for you?    

Ultimately, you need to find a comfortable balance for yourself.. could help you from overly worrying which seems to be skewing what you are saying in your most recent posts.


Look  at 600w, the diplomat.



 

Thanks exstasie, that largely makes sense to me.

It is worth repeating..... especially when peeps.. including long-timers like 600watt (who likely know better) seem to have gotten the characterization wrong based no failure/refusal to adequately zoom their lil selfies out a bit MOAR better... (no homo 600w)

You can look at the charts that go from 2012 to present...

For example, look at the DCA chart that makes the comparison between BTC, gold and equities on an 8 year time scale.  You can adjust the time period in order to show shorter periods, but here, we are talking about longer timeframes of 8 years or so.

Bitcoin has 70x price appreciation over that period, Gold and equities have 46% price appreciation.  Of course, there are up and down waves in there that you can see with bitcoin, and gold and equities appear to be flat because they are so god-damned minuscule in comparison to bitcoin.


If you cannot recognize a lack of correlation within those kinds of longer term glances and you need it spoon-fed more to you, that is not on me..



Who gives a shit?

Zoom out, and I am not even denying that short term correlations have appeared to exist at several points in BTC's price history and I am not even suggesting to go back before 2012 because in some sense, bitcoin was quite a bit more immature in terms of ways to be able to engage in price discovery, and of course, more liquidity avenues and ways to price discover are developing in BTC on an ongoing basis.. but truly we gotta start somewhere, and 2012 seems to be largely fair for the moment, even if BTC has those others outgunned based on its immaturity that causes quite a bit of the lack of correlation, but of course there are other factors as well that contribute to bitcoin's lack of correlation.



Of course, you can you can argue those points, and there are some odds that you could possibly be correct in your assessment.

I would suggest that the odds are against you in making such a bet, and it is on you whether you are going to make such a bet, right?  

Hopefully, you won't drag anyone (especially innocent peeps) else with you in terms of causing them to NOT buy bitcoin, sit on the fence and/or fail refuse to adequately prepare their lil selfies for UPpity.



No need to be eager about being convinced because I am not even going to try to convince you ab out whatever the various factors that you are weighing in order to see either past correlation or to speculate about likely future correlation... because of course, those various scenarios that you describe are plausible.. and I am not proclaiming otherwise.

It remains up to you, and others how they are going to allocate their value into BTC as compared with other possible investments (to the extent that they have any value to allocate into BTC) in the event that bitcoin trends UPpity rather than sideways, down or some nonsensical largely correlation scenario.
 


It is true that bitcoin would not be a very attractive investment under such a hypothetical.. and part of the reason that we hedge is that we do not know the future, exactly.

Historically, we have seen that bitcoin does not come anywhere even close to having had such levels of correlation, and regarding the future, it sure seems quite likely that it will NOT have anything close to having such levels of correlation into future.    


Sure, you are likely correct that as bitcoin matures, the level of its volatility seems to be coming down and likely to continue to come down.. which may also contribute towards more correlation between bitcoin and other assets (such as stocks, gold and other assets) rather than less correlation.

I suppose that there are all kinds of variables in terms of "letting winners run,"  but maybe there are some circumstances that you can identify in which you have pretty decent odds (and therefore high confidence) to "let winners run." 

We also know that the trend tends to be your friend, but that kind of assessment might only get you to 51/49, if you are correct about identifying the true underlying trend that is dominating at the time because sometimes we might be in a long or medium term bull trend, but a short-term bear correction is taking place within that longer or medium term bull trend, and if we had bet on down for the short term.. but we cannot be sure if the correction is going down 5%, 10%, 20% or even greater because the dynamics might change along the way based on additional down momentum that is caused by getting past certain price support points.

I bet that it is quite difficult to have any kind of science in terms of figuring out at what price points to take profits or to attempt to let it ride a bit more even if believing that you understand the pattern that seems to be playing out in the short term.

BTC already has decoupled from those above and a variety of other asset classes too, such as property, collectibles, etc.


Don't get distracted by short-term BTC price movements that appear to be coupled when they are not when you zoom out a wee bit.


Just look at BTC price movements from 2012 to present... they are not exactly lined up with eth, dollar, gold stocks, or other assets even though there are short periods of appearances of such lining up. 

Of course, ETH has a shorter history and it has been riding on the coattails (and security and cover) of bitcoin, so who knows exactly how that lil smoke & mirrors constantly moving the goal posts about how to scam the next peeps through confusion  - multitude of scams platform - is going to play out.

I have to agree with Cryptotourist again... what a strange world to be agreeing with cryptotourist...

There are all kinds of possible levels of spies (governmental, hackers, attackers, private commercial, etc).. and surely most of the information has little or no value, but still problematic for peeps or entities to be getting this information without your explicit permission.. including that you might have more issues down the road because you had not anticipated how the information might end up getting used down the road by some entity that you had not anticipated (and you don't even know)..   asymmetrical in that regard.  They have information about you, but you don't have shit about them or know what they have about you, exactly, because you hardly even remember what you ate for breakfast.   #justsaying


That was following masterluc.. or whatever, just as well to have been anonymous.

mindrust knew so much based on his fear... did the wrong thing, and failed/refused to take mitigating steps based on his purported superior knowledge and fear that looks totally crazy in retrospect.  I tried to answer a similar question regarding how to act/react to these kinds of extreme unknowns in one of my posts from earlier today (actually less than an hour ago).  And, surely the answer is that none of us really know for sure, but we still should be attempting to act somewhat prudently and without rashness - especially based on BIG BTC price movements - that are somewhat within expectations, even if such BTC price moves ended up overshooting what we had expected.

I doubt that anyone with any reasonable senses is suggesting any other crypto project (aka shitcoins) to have long term strong fundamentals besides bitcoin, so surely, buying on dips and continuing to buy has to have some level of confidence in the long term fundamentals of the project in such a way that it is likely to recover.  

Of course, there can be recovery based on mere pumpening and manipulation and without fundamentals, yet it would seem quite likely that making those kinds of investments are surely very risky kinds of bets to be relying on mere pumpenings and manipulation and/or weak fundamentals (or misunderstanding the fundamentals in such a way that you conclude that value is there when there is not).


Whole topic of this thread?

Some people bought.  Some people bought a bit when it dropped from $7,500 to supra $6k, and then bought again when it went from $6k to $5k and then bought again when it went from $5k to sub-$4k for just a short while... They had only a few hours on a couple of the days around that time to buy sub $5k, and some of them did it.

Your seeming focus on sellers or holders during such a dip seems to be underplaying the likely BTC commitment that some longer term folks might have towards bitcoin, including a likely understanding that some folks have considered bitcoin fundamentals in such a way that they are not easily shaken, which should cause a decent number of those kinds of folks to buy rather than sell, and of course some will HODL (or do nothing) as you say.  

Sometimes we cannot really read too much into what people do exactly, because some HODLers may have already assessed the bitcoin situation and have determined that they have already acquired enough BTC.. whether that is a certain quantity of BTC or a certain percentage of their investment portfolio... so such people who feel that they have enough BTC may well not consider that they have additional money to buy at the time of such seemingly extreme dip (unclear at the time, but subsequently shown to feel much worse than it ended up being - and would have been a great opportunity to buy, but hard to know with any level of certainty at the time that such seemingly extreme dippening is happening).

Let's say, the above example, the one who bought on the way down, on the first BTC price drop from $7,500 to $6k, some of them blew their whole wadd when the BTC price dropped to $6k and considered $6k as a likely bottom, and sure in the whole scheme of things, BTC prices were only below $6k for about 7 days, at most, but still those 7 days felt like a pretty long ass time for many folks trying to figure out what to do and if they had more money, and can even cause some of them with the greatest of BTC commitments to feel uncertainties if the BTC price is going to continued to drop and if they might need to reconsider what to do, exactly... including subsequently determined to be BAD ideas of selling some or all of their BTC after the price had already dropped that much.



I would not emphasize those people because they are not very common, and it is NOT even a good approach, when it comes to managing your BTC portfolio... so probably more likely to characterize such people, to the extent they exist, as lucky rather than as having had "done it properly."


Yes... surely some people did get emotional during that period... and they did the wrong thing (we found out afterwards - even though we probably should have realized ahead of time that selling on the way down does not tend to be a good idea with bitcoin, generally speaking)..  Many of the sellers on the way down (or at the bottom) may not have realized that they made a mistake until several weeks after BTC got back above $6k and did NOT seem inclined to come back down...

Actually, if you look at the BTC price charts, one month after the dip, when BTC prices got back above $8k, it did not seem to want to go back below $8k  (which was surely a kind of punishment for those who sold some or all of their BTC below that price and failed/refused to buy back)...

Sure, there are no guarantees in BTC, so we could revisit $8k again, but currently, those sub $8k prices for buying in March and April are looking pretty good.


Still stressful for many of them.


That's true... the longer in, the more that HODLers can bear with some of those kinds of great price moves, even though BIG price moves like the one in mid-March likely even causes experienced HODLers some concerns (at around that time, the 200 week moving average was $5,500, and the BTC price dipped down to $3,850).. Historically, the BTC price has not tended to dip below the 200 week moving average, and even in march, that dip was short-lived.

Currently, the 200 week moving average is at about $6,700 - so sure we could get dips down to that level and of course there are no guarantees for either price direction - but still good practices to have some of these kinds of metrics in mind when considering what seems to be more plausible/possible than not.



In any event, whether you are older or younger, it tends to take a long ass time to build investment capital, so younger folks have not had as much time to build their investment portfolios.  Older peeps have had more time to build, and some have actually built and others have engaged in practices in which they have not built.  Younger folks have more time to take more risks and to recover from the risks if they end up screwing up, but there are likely better ways to take risk in order that bets are somewhat hedged.  I would think that people should want to feel as if they have built something by the time that they reach their 30s and 40s.


I cannot disagree with you, and I personally have suggested that each person consider his/her personal factors when engaging in any kind of investment, whether BTC or any other investment(s), and it surely seems that bitcoin provides way more opportunities than have traditionally been available to regular people in terms of how easy it is to get into a BTC investment and even to choose to invest small amounts, such as $1 at a time 24/7/365.  For fees and other purposes, it may be more strategically feasible to lump investments, but there are avenues and options to buy, trade or invest with low amounts on a regular basis - just a matter of learning and creativity in some of the cases - even for very poor people who may have been traditionally excluded from having such options.

Of course, the personal specifics can take quite a while to really figure out and to balance including considering specifics of: cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, and time, skills and abilities to learn, plan, carry out and tweak practices from time to time including trading (whether and how), reallocating, etc.