geez can friedcat make those numbers any more convoluted.
so basically if purchasing now we are looking at:
Buying 1 GH:
-Price: 0.0012BTC
-24 hour payout: ( 25 / (39,603,666,252 * 4.295) ) * 60 * 60 * 24 = 0.00001269858BTC
-24 hour maintenance: (( 1.89*10^(-8) ) / 405) * 60 * 60 * 24 = 0.000004032BTC
Buying 10 TH:
- Price=12BTC
- 24 hour payout: 0.1269858BTC
- 24 hour maintenance = 0.04032BTC
- 24 hour Net payout: 0.0866658BTC
Is this accurate? Plug into the profitability calculator with just 0.1 profitability decline ( <8% decline per period). it's a negative return for a 12 month period. Am i missing something here? why is anyone buying this?
Hardware break even 351 days
Net profit first time frame -3684.57 USD
Hardware cost(USD) 4800
Time frame (months) 12
Profitability decline per year 0.1
Conversion rate (USD/BTC) 400
Bitcoin difficulty 39,603,666,252
Hash rate 10 THs
Electricity rate (USD/kWh) 700
Power consumption (W) 1
Coins per 24h at these conditions 0.1270 BTC
Power cost per 24h 16.80 USD
Revenue per day 50.79 USD
Less power costs 33.99 USD
Power cost per time frame 6136.20 USD
Revenue per time frame 7251.63 USD
Less power costs 1115.43 USD
You need a profit decline of 0.3 (<5%) just to breakeven, good luck with that.
Not accurate. The bold lines should not read Bitcoins as the mtce fee is in USD and must be converted to BTC. This means a rising Bitcoin value increases the dividend yield. The red normal font line shows your error in calculation and the red, italicized lines indicate where you were just being silly (and after saying Friedcat's numbers were convoluted, geez!). If you want people to verify your work, you have to show it - I see what you did there though. P.S. I am NOT working nights  I dont mind being proven wrong, but everything you said is nonsense. All the numbers are exactly as calculated per the published numbers. If you not going to bother reading the data, then dont come here and make snide remarks. I showed all my calculations, you just cant seem to read or understand. 1) 24 hour maintenance: (( 1.89*10^(-8) ) / 405) * 60 * 60 * 24 = 0.000004032BTC <-- i took the usd amount and converted to bitcoin already (see red at current price 405 usd/btc) So this is the accurate btc amount. 2) Electricity rate (USD/kWh) 700, Power consumption (W) 1 <-- this is just a workaround to input the maintenance fee, which comes out to be ~$16 a day, matching exactly with ( 1.89*10^(-8) ) * 60 * 60 * 24, the published formula. Expected some more intelligent responses to be honest... |
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geez can friedcat make those numbers any more convoluted.
so basically if purchasing now we are looking at:
Buying 1 GH:
-Price: 0.0012BTC
-24 hour payout: ( 25 / (39,603,666,252 * 4.295) ) * 60 * 60 * 24 = 0.00001269858BTC
-24 hour maintenance: (( 1.89*10^(-8) ) / 405) * 60 * 60 * 24 = 0.000004032BTC
Buying 10 TH:
- Price=12BTC
- 24 hour payout: 0.1269858BTC
- 24 hour maintenance = 0.04032BTC
- 24 hour Net payout: 0.0866658BTC
Is this accurate? Plug into the profitability calculator with just 0.1 profitability decline ( <8% decline per period). it's a negative return for a 12 month period. Am i missing something here? why is anyone buying this?
Hardware break even 351 days
Net profit first time frame -3684.57 USD
Hardware cost(USD) 4800
Time frame (months) 12
Profitability decline per year 0.1
Conversion rate (USD/BTC) 400
Bitcoin difficulty 39,603,666,252
Hash rate 10 THs
Electricity rate (USD/kWh) 700
Power consumption (W) 1
Coins per 24h at these conditions 0.1270 BTC
Power cost per 24h 16.80 USD
Revenue per day 50.79 USD
Less power costs 33.99 USD
Power cost per time frame 6136.20 USD
Revenue per time frame 7251.63 USD
Less power costs 1115.43 USD
You need a profit decline of 0.3 (<5%) just to breakeven, good luck with that.
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I stopped arguing with that idiot long time ago. Hes too fcking dumb to understand this simple concept. Infact i say most noobs buying hardware right now are actually expecting BTC price to rise in order for ROI.
Not sure why the aggression. I am not advocating hardware purchase to everyone, but it shouldn't be a surprise that hardware is clearly being sold to people in areas of cheap electricity (<$0.10/kwh) and/or those who are very bullish on their calculations of roi regarding the future bitcoin value and hashrate. Personally, I pay $0.14/kwh and have not purchased hardware in the last two months. In fact, I've been liquidating much of my hashrate due to the good resale value in BTC for the last time, you cant factor in future bitcoin value in the calculation. corrected |
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price is still too high, there is no roi here.
Hardware = $800 (including power supply)
Profitability decline per year = 0.1 (only <8% decline per period, very conservative)
Power = 1200W @0.15
Still come back with a negative $ after 12 months. It's basic math, i dont understand why people continue to buy those overpriced hardware, host them, run them, when they wont make any money for you.
Try your math again with $0.10 power - not everyone pays $0.15/kwh or more. Other assumptions like difficulty jumps <6% or increasing bitcoin value also affect the calculations. Its unlikely we will still have a $400 bitcoin in a year from now. btc/usd increase or decrease is irrelevant to mining profitability calculations, i am surprised as a hero member, you dont understand this basic principal of mining. It has a lot to do with it. Let's take a fictional scenario where a miner costs 1btc and over a 12month period produces 2btc while using up $400 in electricity. You effectively break even if bitcoin price stays put at $400 from now to then. What if bitcoin goes to $1200 (3x value)? At the end of the year your roi will be (2-1btc)-$400. That's effectively a $800 positive roi. On top of that, it's likely the miner could continue to mine profitably at that price for a few more months, maybe another $100 added to the ROI. *for those who say this is why to buy and hold, if you bought 1btc at $400, after the year you would have $1200 in btc, a gain of $800 (bitcoin going more than $1200 would make mining more profitable than holding)* Granted, an increase like that in bitcoin price would likely result in a larger difficulty rise as 1-2w/gh equipment resumes mining profitably, and other various factors - but the point us that roi is effectively based on a (bitcoin(x1) - bitcoin(x0)) - dollar(y) equation, so the value of bitcoin is very important. Its all a lot of speculation, but so is trying to estimate difficulty increases if you buy bitcoin directly, you will incur the same gain/loss with regards to btc price fluctuations. Therefore to calculate if a mining hardware is profitable or not going forward, the bitcoin future price factor is never used as part of the consideration. Anyone who doesnt understand that shouldnt be buying hardwares. |
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price is still too high, there is no roi here.
Hardware = $800 (including power supply)
Profitability decline per year = 0.1 (only <8% decline per period, very conservative)
Power = 1200W @0.15
Still come back with a negative $ after 12 months. It's basic math, i dont understand why people continue to buy those overpriced hardware, host them, run them, when they wont make any money for you.
Try your math again with $0.10 power - not everyone pays $0.15/kwh or more. Other assumptions like difficulty jumps <6% or increasing bitcoin value also affect the calculations. Its unlikely we will still have a $400 bitcoin in a year from now. btc/usd increase or decrease is irrelevant to mining profitability calculations, i am surprised as a hero member, you dont understand this basic principal of mining. |
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price is still too high, there is no roi here.
Hardware = $800 (including power supply)
Profitability decline per year = 0.1 (only <8% decline per period, very conservative)
Power = 1200W @0.15
Still come back with a negative $ after 12 months. It's basic math, i dont understand why people continue to buy those overpriced hardware, host them, run them, when they wont make any money for you.
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So you want us to pre-order stuff from Hash-fast? Am I taking crazy pills?
i think he is saying that lol...let me flush some money down the toilet instead - easier way to get rid of it. |
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This pricing structure makes as much sense as a clown at a funeral. C1 1TH water cooled = 1BTC S4 2TH normal cooled= 3BTC  |
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this price is insane, what happened to bitmain, he used to always price the miners on the borderline ROI so if you are lucky you can make a tiny profit. But now it's not even in the same universe to ROI.
Easy pass, you must be complete clueless to buy this at the listed price.
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all the crap cointerra pulled over its customers on the previous miners, you must be batshit crazy to preorder from this scam outfit. Not to mention the ROI isn't even good giving "Q1 2015" delivery and i put it in quotes..
actually you deserve to be taken if you preorder this crap from those scammers.
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I honestly don't know how bitmain makes money. The hardware and labor is relatively inexpensive. Probably around $50. But the international express shipping is the killer. Retail price to ship the s3 from china to usa is around $200. I am sure he gets some discount but how much lower can he get? Probably make $50 for each unit sold.
Folks we are close to the break even point now for the 20/28 nm. I foresee many hardware companies cease to operate if the price remains depressed and difficulty continue to go up at 10% a clip. Sit back and watch history unfold.
I have no doubt that it would cost around $200 to ship an S3 from the US to China in 2 days. However, there is something weird/fishy about what the Chinese pay to ship things. Are there some government subsidies perhaps? I say this because there are numerous products on eBay priced at $1-2 that ship for FREE from China. Granted it takes 2 weeks or more, but eventually the product transfers from the Chinese to the US postal system for the last half of the journey and I assume USPS gets paid a portion of the shipping cost. It costs me around $2 to send a padded envelope weighing 3oz anywhere in the US. How the heck do these companies in China ship a product to the US for less than $2 + the cost of the product? I know I am talking about USPS vs UPS, DHL, etc., but perhaps there is something that allows them to save on shipping that we don't know about. that's just china post shipping (similar to usps post office first class shipping here), they have different durations starting at 2 weeks and going all the way 6-8 weeks. The price is very cheap, that's what those ebay sellers are using. However bitmain ships his stuff 2-3 day express and it's not a small package. So he's not using china post. There are not other options in china. You either go with one of the western shippers or ems, all very expensive. i honestly dont know how he can make money selling those S3 units so low. Probably just dumping inventory towards the end to recoup the cost. As every minute those miners sit in the warehouse the price drops. |
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You idiots should stop funding Chinese mining farm.... seriously you think you can beat them?
For every S4 sold, it will fund 5x S4s for their farm.
Bullshit. I don't believe for a second that Bitmaintech is making a huge profit on every miner they sell. Guy from Spondoolies, who knows a heck of a lot more about other manufacturer costs than you do, said that Bitmaintech's margins are very, very low in the post below. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=521520.msg8516387#msg8516387A bit of simple math proves that he is correct. A S3 currently sells at .58 BTC, which is ~$264 at the current BTC price of $455. Bitmain has non recurring costs for engineering and development, labor costs for assembly, facility overhead costs, material costs, taxes, and shipping costs. After everything is said and done, I would be surprised if they make a 10% profit on each S3 sold. Bitmain is making their money by selling a lot of miners with a really low profit on each one. I honestly don't know how bitmain makes money. The hardware and labor is relatively inexpensive. Probably around $50. But the international express shipping is the killer. Retail price to ship the s3 from china to usa is around $200. I am sure he gets some discount but how much lower can he get? Probably make $50 for each unit sold. Folks we are close to the break even point now for the 20/28 nm. I foresee many hardware companies cease to operate if the price remains depressed and difficulty continue to go up at 10% a clip. Sit back and watch history unfold. |
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After some calculations using alloscomp calculator i've come to those conclusions:
Initial Investment Ghash Earnings per moth Costs (37% of earnings) Earnings per moth after costs Months to ROI
1657.142857$ 2500 655$ 242.35$ 412.65$ 4.016
All investments, earnings and costs are displayed on US dollar, including bitcoin price stable at 470$ US and no difficulty increase. Months to ROI will only decrease if Bitcoin prices rise and Months to ROI will increase if: Bitcoin prices drop nor difficulty increases.
The months to ROI will stay the same if you get more ghashes, all values will change except Months to ROI
thanks for that, using the same numbers but with a 10% increase and 0 watts, you are looking at a 259 days breakeven. That's 8.6 months. |
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wow they need to fix that asap, this is borderline fraud
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Fee is 6.12%, good job HASHNEST ! Thanx ! wait i am confused, i swear i saw 36% as fees, how is it 6% now? |
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Think of the structure like this: they are asking you to purchase an S2 for 1.35BTC and then charging you $98 a month to host it. Run that through any calculator out there and you'll find the difficulty increases need to be lower than 5% for you to even break even.
yeah this is crazy....only way you will ROI on this is flip the shares to the next sucker in line once they open up trading, it's a game of musical chairs. |
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just want to make sure i understand this right. you are looking for a min of $10k investment now for hardware not fully built yet, and you will start paying an unknown amount of dividend in 3 years?
is my understanding correct?
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Hi does anyone know below:
1) if the first august sp30 orders have shipped
2) how come the power consumption is higher than the total output of the 2x power supply (sorry newbie question) ? How will that even work/
Power Supply
2 x 1200 W - Drawing 1500 W "at the wall" (approved by the manufacturer)
Nominal Power Consumption
3000 W
thanks
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Hi does anyone know why my reward per block got cut by almost half? I was getting consistent 0.007 per block, but just checked now, and it shows 0.004 since yesterday.
There is no change to my miners (2.2 TH). what is going on? Did the hash power on the pool double in the last 2 days or something?
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