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9661  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 04:04:05 PM
Cryptotourist is always right.

Well thank you, but no.
For reference, I'm not a God, but merely a mutant demigawd.

Already love your update though, so keep it up. Cool

Well gosh.  Roll Eyes  I know that you are not always right.

Actually, you are usually wrong, and occasionally you are right.

I was merely trying to make a joke.   Wink

Joke does not work no more if having to explain it.     Tongue Tongue Tongue
9662  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy every dip! on: September 05, 2020, 03:58:10 PM
Learning to day-trade, or some kind of pro-active trading style is OK, but as a non-professional trader, don't put yourself under the illusion that will beat the top 10% of traders who do this professionally for a living.



We are plebs, accept that we are plebs, and we buy to HODL. There will only be 21,000,000 Bitcoins.

I just made a post that is somewhat related to buying the dip considerations, and suggesting that buying on a 10% dip is good, and buying on 18% dip is even better... don't get too greedy.. because hey you never know if the dip is done, or not.


That's why I always recommend newbies to use dollar-cost-averaging. Buy some Dipcoins now, buy more later during more dips. Although, I'm not a trader, and it's not a strategy for "traders. I'm just a pleb-saver. Cool

Yep... and I bet you do much better than the vast majority of folks who attempting to be more strategic about how much is enough of a dip, but an ongoing plan of buying regularly and taking advantage of some degree of dip (even though we can never really know how far the dip is going to go and how long the dip is going to last). 

Part of my reason for making my above post, is that frequently peeps ask "how much of a dip is enough?"  Usually the answer in bitcoin would be that any dip should be better than no dip, when it comes to buying, and in the long term, much of this is going to just iron itself out, and if you end up acquiring 10 BTC over the next 10 years, maybe you end up acquiring .5BTC extra merely because you were buying on dips rather than NOT paying attention.  perhaps?  Hard to know, for sure... but you can know if you are regularly buying BTC and overall your BTC stash is growing rather than either staying the same or shrinking... and you can measure and monitor such growth with the passage of time, too.

I remember from late 2013 to late 2016 while i was building my BTC portfolio.  I had some target BTC sizes that I wanted to reach, and as I kept accumulating BTC, I continued to move my target up higher.  After a while, I got to a certain point that I was NO longer feeling as much urgency about how much BTC that I accumulated.  Sure, not going to complain about accumulating a bit more BTC here and there, but at some point, if we keep accumulating, we hope to reach a point where we can run the numbers and recognize that if the hypothetical bullish BTC UP scenario plays out anywhere close to approximations, we have enough BTC to profit quite well from such a scenario.

Even if we might already consider that we have already profited considerably from such a scenario already having had played out.. even if we can end up experiencing another stage of upwards BTC price movements, which is largely icing on the cake of an already better than expected scenario already having had played out... and no real likelihood seems to be in play that average or better than average scenarios will not continue to play out.. with the chance of even exceptional scenarios similar to the past.  No guarantees with any of this, of course, but you cannot win it if you are not in it... hahahahaahaha.
9663  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst on: September 05, 2020, 06:50:01 AM
please say something that makes me happy  Roll Eyes

In the coming week, BTC prices will go up, which should make you happy -

unless

such BTC prices were to happen to go down


or sideways
9664  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 06:27:16 AM
Wow JJG! Maybe you slept too much lately! You came back rather prolific!  Grin

Price side, I see again green on my Bitcoin ticker widget app, that's enough of a good morning. Need to pick a day to buy some corn in September for my DCA long term strategy. I welcome suggestions.

Last part on merits:
fuck merits.

Divide your DCA allowance into 4 parts.

Buy 1/4 right away.

Thereafter, buy 1/4 each of the next three weeks.

Does that not help?
9665  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 05:54:43 AM
Better late than never, though, no?   Cry Cry Cry

No, better on time.
You left us with our dicks swaying loose out there yesterday J.
Instead of wrapping it up by page 3. Where is a wall of text when you need one?

Welp!

I will work harder!

Cryptotourist is always right.


9666  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 05:30:45 AM
Here's a quickie response (just kidding)


Thanks, Jay.  I learned from your reply, and picked up some new concepts to research.

Great.


Don't hesitate to come back at me, if your research turns up some things that seem contrary to what I was saying or even if you believe that there are good information sources out there to buttress some of the points in one direction or another.

Surely, I don't proclaim to explain some of the concepts as clearly as they might need to be explained.

Whilst I ponder that, I think that I should clarify a few points:

By the way, a lot of us try NOT to get too much caught up on short term variability of BTC prices

I must emphasize that apart from the pain of minimizing badly-timed expenditures, that is the perspective that informs my question!  When the bears are out in force, I usually ignore the market as much as I can.  Hereto, that has always worked out well:  “It’s down.  I don’t care.  It will be back up.”

I am pretty sure that you and I have gone over some of these concepts previously, and of course, I don't even mind repeating myself, because sometimes when we are posting in a public thread, other readers (or even active thread participants) can use this kind of conversation to attempt to fix their ways of balancing their BTC holdings along with a kind of inevitable BTC volatility that is not always UP and is hardly guaranteed in terms of either direction nor quantity of movement.

I understand that even forum members who have been around a long time might not have completely left their BTC accumulation stage, so the three stages of long term investing are accumulation, maintenance and then liquidation, and as I mentioned several times, I consider myself to largely be in a maintenance stage that is on the cusp of entering or employing more liquidation strategies in the coming years.

The accumulation stage remains amongst the most difficult and part of the reason is because sometimes accumulators have difficulties figuring out a balance that works for them in order to reach their goal, so if you have not come close to reaching fuck you status, you still may largely be accumulating BTC on a regular basis until either you reach fuck you status or you merely are at an age where liquidation is starting to seem practical.

So far, I am presuming that you have resolved some of the particular personalized questions around your BTC investment amounts and your accumulation target (your allocation percentage), and those would be your cash flow, your other investments, your view about bitcoin as compared with other investments, your risk tolerance, your timeline, and finally your skills, time and abilities to research and learn, and tweak your holdings or trade from time to time.

Accounting for all of the above personal variabilities, you arrive at some resolutions regarding how much allocation is your BTC target, so when I got into BTC my allocation target was to have BTC as 10% of my investment portfolio, but I ended up with close to 13%, and bitcoin price appreciation had caused BTC to become around 70% currently of my investment assets.

I hope that I am not being reckless by suggesting that my BTC allocation is 70% because my allocation came from BTC price appreciation, so the remainder of my investments are able to completely sustain me, even if BTC were to go to zero, but I am more than willing to just allow my winner (BTC) to continue to ride because there is not any stress on the rest of my various allocations.  I have largely NOT touched my BTC in terms of withdrawing any since I started in late 2013.. so I had been building my allocation in the first few years, and largely met my accumulation goal and just have been in a maintenance status since about early 2017 (if NOT earlier).

What I am trying to get at is that I personally believe it is ridiculous for people to over-allocate in BTC because they need to have their cashflow projected out, so many times, my finances had been a bit complicated, so for about the past 20 years, I have been accustomed to projecting out my cash flow for at least 18 months and sometimes even projecting out a bit further than that, using an Excel spreadsheet.

So, if you already have gotten past your conviction in BTC that you believe it is a good investment, then you have already come to a determination regarding how much of your cashflow that you would be willing to invest in BTC long term and even give up if BTC were to go to zero, and hopefully your timeline is at least 4 years minimum and if your timeline is longer then that is even better.. 10 years or longer is good, because there is no get rich quick, even if with bitcoin you may well be able to get rich quicker than you would have with traditional assets, so long as you play your cards correctly.

By the way, when I got into BTC in 2013, I had already been investing around 25 years in various traditional assets, and I had already established a pretty decently sized investment portfolio, so moving 10-13% into bitcoin was a decent chunk of already established profits in various investments and appreciation of investments over those 25 years.

So having an investment timeline of 4-10 years or even 30 years is not unreasonable, even though it seems to me that with bitcoin there are ways that they investment timeline can still end up cutting much shorter than what i had to do in order to build the size of my investment portfolio... so maybe with bitcoin the portfolio size can reach high levels in a stable way that I had not been able to accomplish with traditional investments (and of course, still no guarantees with any of this, either).

In other words, if you do not invest more than you can afford to lose, then you do not worry about what the bears are saying or what they are doing and what the short term movements of the BTC price are.

Hopefully, you are dollar cost averaging and buying on dips until you reach your accumulation target, then you you reach your accumullation target, they you may go more into a maintenance stage which might involve shaving some profits when the BTC price goes up and using those proceeds to buy back BTC, but if you have not reached your BTC target, then you might not be able to afford to sell any BTC because you ONLY remain in a DCA of BTC on a regular basis, buy on dip and HODL strategy, until you happen to reach such accumulation target.

So really difficult to say for you, nullius, if I am not really knowing if you have reached your accumulation strategy yet and if you have your fiat cashflow sufficiently projected out on a long enough timeline.. that you are NOT going to get into any kind of cashflow pickle.
 


If, however, the fundamentals of the market have changed—not Bitcoin’s own fundamentals, but the foundation of the whole economy—then I think it’s worthwhile to re-evaluate that stance in the context of the current situation.  Not from turning bearish on Bitcoin—to the contrary!  Panic and infectious negativity are bad; so is sticking one’s head in the sand.  Bitcoin has huge potential right now, but also faces dangers to which I should not blind myself.

I am having a hard time considering how our current macro circumstances should cause any kind of significant change to the whole concept of making sure that your shit is in order and figuring out a BTC accumulation target.

Maybe we can attempt to use a hypothetical, here?  Let's say that you have $100k invested in various assets.

You have $35k in stocks, $15k in bonds, $25k in property, $5k in gold/silver, $12.5k in bitcoin, $7.5k in cash.  That would be 12.5% in bitcoin.

Are you saying that you want to move everything to bitcoin because you have lost confidence in those various other investments based on the latest and greatest in macro economic dynamics that have caused you to lose confidence in various traditional investments?


Personally, part of the reason that I did not change the allocations of some of my traditional investments was because they were in 401ks, so they were continuing to be tax deferred and then part of my investments were a pain in the ass to move (so not very liquid), so when I got into bitcoin, largely I move my value or increase my bitcoin allocation by just adding to what I had in bitcoin until I reached my 10% to 13% target.

So, if you are sufficiently, liquid in terms of those other assets, sure it is possible for you to just merge more and more of them into bitcoin to end up having higher allocations in bitcoin, and maybe you would end up having higher allocations in cash, too because you end up wanting to have some of the cash available in order to have strategies to DCA and buy on the dip, and various other ways to attempt to take advantage of BTC volatility.  

So maybe one year later, you position might end up looking more like this:

$12.5k in stocks, $2.5k in bonds, $5k in property, $7.5k in gold/silver, $57.5k in bitcoin, $15k in cash.  That would be 57.5% in bitcoin.

In the end, you are the one who has to decide both how to make your allocations or to make adjustments to your allocations in order to feel comfortable with whatever are your choices, including if you believe macro circumstances have sufficiently changed in order to cause drastic reallocations in your various holdings.

By the way, frequently, we are speaking to the situation of people who need to get off zero in terms of their bitcoin, and people who want to get rich quick, so some of those people might be either be reluctant to invest anything into bitcoin, and frequently we might be telling them that they do not have to place high allocations in bitcoin in order to profit stupendously from bitcoin, especially if bitcoin ends up going up crazily, you may not even need to have a lot in bitcoin and it ends up becoming a high percentage of your holdings because if your scenario plays out in terms of the bullish bitcoin scenario, then your traditional assets may have stayed
about the same value but bitcoin goes shooting up.  

A problem of over allocating your value into bitcoin is that if your investment thesis in regards to a bullish bitcoin does not end up playing out, then you end up being screwed because you did not have value allocated in those other possible scenarios...  .. which ends up being a kind of gambling rather than investing, from my perspective, and I don't really believe in gambling when it comes to significant portions of my investment portfolio.



I think that the current economic situation is unprecedented:  Never before have markets been so globally interdependent, and all based in total fiat currencies unbacked by anything whatsoever, and suddenly hit simultaneously, in numerous countries, with government policies that are tantamount to economic arson.  It is only rational to take a fresh look at what probable scenarios may come to pass, if the cycles and trends of the past eleven years wind up totally broken.

I still do not believe that you need to over allocate in bitcoin in order to profit stupendously from your doom and gloom scenario playing out... so even if you are correct about the doom and gloom scenario, if you merely have a decent investment in BTC, your BTC will greatly outperform the remainder of your holdings, so you will still be rich either way, so long as you have some bitcoin without having to devote more than 50% of your current holdings to BTC, and you can even stick with a more modest holdings, even 10% to 20% (of course, depending on the totality of your personal circumstances that only you can specifically assess - not that you want to share all of your information on a public BTC thread - though we could talk in terms of percentages of a hypothetical person, too).


Oh?  Now I see that you are describing such a black swan event as including the BTC prices going up, rather than down, and sure, I doubt that we really need to pinpoint exactly whether BTC prices are going up because BTC price is being appreciated and adopted more (normal supply and demand type price appreciations) or BTC prices are going up because fiat values are going down so much because of their irresponsible behaviors, inflation or whatever.

Actually, I was eliciting a question mark:  Will we get an upward spiral, or a downward spiral?  I expect the upwards one.  Whereas I am admittedly biased, given that I am not only heavily invested in Bitcoin, but financially dependent on it.  

Well, isn't that the million dollar question about whether you are too much allocated into bitcoin and you are potentially not adequately prepared for other possible scenarios?


In the absence of that crystal ball that so many people claim to have, I thought to ask around in WO, where the best regulars are much better informed about the markets than I am.

My goal tends to be that if BTC is performing at least 6% per year on average, then it is outperforming the average returns of my traditional investments.  So, personally, I never have a high goal in terms of my expectations in regards to bitcoin.  My first few years investing in BTC, I did not get my average of 6% per year because I was in the negative, and since late 2016, my investment largely started to meet and exceed my 6% per year expectations.. so even from here, when we are bouncing around at supra $10k, I still remain happy with 6% per year, but I also have a bit of a cushion, too... so I am cheating to some degree.


It seems that, at least at a first impression, you think I may not be wide of the mark in my expectation that fiat inflation should significantly drive up the dollars-to-bitcoins ratio due to the dollar’s fall, not Bitcoin’s rise—though of course, adoption can simultaneously push Bitcoin up further.  Well, I may have overshot when last I mentioned it in March; I hope so!

Well, you March 18 post came right after we experienced the March 12 dip down to $3,850, so we were bouncing in the $6k price arena on that particular day.

Of course, many of us realize that inflation is frequently understated, especially since our basket of goods might even vary from what the govt is supposedly measuring when it says that the dollar  is only inflating at 2% per year, and many of us know better than that.

So, if matters really go to shit, in terms of the dollar, then instead of me expecting my BTC to appreciate by 6% per year to merely keep up with the previous performance of my earlier traditional investments, I might be better off having higher expectations for my BTC to appreciate by more than that in order to account for the devaluation of the dollar... Maybe double it to 12%?  or maybe just add 50% to it, such as 9%?  I can play around with my numbers in order to help to keep myself realistic (and not deluded) about what might be happening in the real world, too.


Sure, of course, having a healthy allocation to bitcoin seems to be a prudent approach in these times, and of course, individual circumstances are going to vary too.   If you have a lot of expenses in fiat, such as business, family and even other kinds of payments that you are due, then you may well want to make sure that you have a sufficient savings/holdings in fiat to cover those expenses and a 6 to 18 month cashflow projection may well be prudent because no one should want to be forced to sell BTC that is NOT of a time of their own choosing merely because they had over-allocated in BTC, yet on the other hand, if your income and cashflow comes in BTC, then you are in a different kind of dynamic in which you might be forced to cash out some BTC on a regular basis, too.  So sure, individual cashflow situations and expenses are going to vary in terms of what kinds of levels of allocation into BTC would be prudent for their particular circumstances.

Sound advice.  Speaking from hard experience.

We frequently find guys getting themselves into a pickle because they had not adequately accounted for their cashflow, and then some kind of emergency comes up (emergencies are always going to come up, especially if BTC price crashes, then more likely some other emergency is going to come up), so they end up having to sell some or all of their BTC stash because they need to deal with the emergency or they are afraid that they do not have enough cash to deal with the emergency.  Of course, they are going to buy back later, but when they end up selling at $4,500, and then the BTC price goes up to $7k or more, they spend too much time waiting for the BTC price to come back down, and it does not come back down and they had not adequately prepared for their emergency situation... because they had to sell their BTC at a time that really was not of their own choosing.  It happens quite a bit, and many guys will not admit it.

Even when I project out my cashflow 18 months or more, sometimes, I do have moments in which my cashflow is not adding up very balanced in the positive, and some rebalancing has to be done in order to make sure that there is enough balance to cover all expenses, and surely the more kinds of investments that you have does also help in choosing from which of the investments to draw in terms of resolving short term cashflow shortcomings that arise from time to time and perhaps more frequently when there are more complexities in the expenses and sometimes more cushion needs to be kept in the accounts when there are more complexities too... so instead of having an ongoing $500 cushion (no matter what at low points in the cycle), the cushion might need to be $1,500 or even $2k at low points in the cycle.  



End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

I will not proclaim to having any ability to live beyond the measurement of one being, similar to the rule against perpetuities, which remains an interesting concept...

In other words, at some point, hopefully not soon, the words of this particular being will have run their course.

And here I expected some technical analysis evaluating the stock-to-flow model of your words.  The rule against perpetuities is a more interesting take, however.  Do you suppose that in the absence thereof, you could will your distant descendants to continue producing your words in accord with your own present wishes?

Those can be complex instruments, and you know how the terms of a will could be measured in terms of a life in being.. in this case, I would be the life in being rather than the terms.  If that makes any sense?  in other words,  so when the "life in being" (myself in this hypothetical) is not longer ready, willing or able to spout out words, then likely it is no longer a life in being.   Tongue Tongue   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
9667  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 02:45:53 AM
we will climb back to $11k soonish. and then it is decision time. we will either go through this barrier and all is good or we will get rejected. if we get rejected we will see 9k and in worst case 8k, but that is the very bearish case. I want to accumulate more, that is why I am even considering those scenarios..

King daddy does not give any shits if you want to accumulate more**



King daddy does not give any shits about what you are considering**



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Of course, even dips down to $6,600 are possible - but which scenarios are likely, when we have been confirmed to be in a potential bull market since May 2019...

but hey, some peeps don't even believe that we have been in a bull market since May 2019 - even though such bull market had already been "confirmed"


Go figure.


**Even though king daddy does not care about your desires or your thoughts, I do care.  #nohomo.    Tongue Tongue Tongue

Addendum

Wow.  After I drafted the foregoing, I checked proudhon’s trust page.

I wonder how many people have lost money over this.  I hope that most people ignore him.

There are not too many who actually consider proudhon seriously... He is kind of a reverse indicator.  You heard his song from April 2013, haven't you..   The you tube video link has been updated posted here a few times already. ... eg.. bitserve's below post:

~

How about you post the research paper on why Bitcoin can't go above 10k? Don't forget the sources.

He’s too busy enjoying all the wealth that he has gained by the magic of “strongly short with high leverage”.

Proudhon have been confirming scientifically proven sources since 2011. So yeah, he surely is too busy enjoying his wealth most of the time... except when he briefly passes by from to time to enlighten us with his OG wisdom.

Confirmed.

I love that song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw



Proudhon only shows up around the time that BTC prices are going to reverse, so perhaps humorous at best.

End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

[terse post with picture]

End of the economy if JJG ran out of words!  Depression!  Collapse!  DOOMSDAY!

Embarrassed

I will not proclaim to having any ability to live beyond the measurement of one being, similar to the rule against perpetuities, which remains an interesting concept...

In other words, at some point, hopefully not soon, the words of this particular being will have run their course.
9668  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 01:39:56 AM
the laggards are chasing profits that don’t exist now.

A perverse kind of FOMO?

Anyhow, I remain quite biased in my preference for UP rather than DOWN... because even if I might be able to stack a few sats on the way down, it continues to be minuscule amounts of stacking as compared with how much of a benefit comes from purely straight UP.

I think that the bigger question is whether Bitcoin is really prepared for a black swan.  When fiat currencies and all of the other markets crash and burn, will people tend more to seek Bitcoin as a safehaven, or run away?  (To where!?  I don’t think that any traditional investments other than precious metals, and illiquid assets such as real estate, can hold value in such a scenario.)

Surely, you are asking a BIGGER question than what I was attempting to answer.

To a considerable degree, my whole approach in bitcoin has been built upon a presumption (or maybe even a hope) that ultimately BTC prices continue to go up in the long term, and we do not end up in some kind of downward spiral....

So sure one form of downward spiral would be going completely down to zero, and another forum of downward spiral would constitute BTC prices going so low that the investor (me in this case) does not have enough capital or time to continue to buy in such a way that his average cost per BTC ends up being less than the actual BTC price at the time that he (me in this case) would want to sell such BTC... therefore constituting a loss.

With so much passage of time, I really do not believe any of those two scenarios are probable, even though a kind of black swan event that you seem to be suggesting, nullius, would be some variation of such negative spiraling circumstances.


In April or thereabouts, I conjectured on WO that we may see extreme Bitcoin “prices” without gain in purchase power—not because of Bitcoin gaining, but the dollar (et al.) hemorrhaging value.  There is just no way that fiat currencies will not see extraordinary devaluation, given how much new currency has been created exactly at the moment of sharp decline in actual economic activity.  Official statistics on inflation are manipulated.  My “ground truth” is that I have seen sharp increases in the prices of elastic-demand goods within the past six months; but of course, whatever I see locally is a very limited view.  Has the recent $10–12k/BTC range simply reflected a decrease in the real-world purchase power of the dollar (as Bitcoin retained approximately the same value), or has it been caused by an increase in adoption, or has it been a speculative run?

Oh?  Now I see that you are describing such a black swan event as including the BTC prices going up, rather than down, and sure, I doubt that we really need to pinpoint exactly whether BTC prices are going up because BTC price is being appreciated and adopted more (normal supply and demand type price appreciations) or BTC prices are going up because fiat values are going down so much because of their irresponsible behaviors, inflation or whatever.

Sure, I agree with you that inflation is probably already noticeable, even if it might take longer for the Cantillon effect to play out in order to cause even more price inflation further down the line (further away from the money spigot).

By the way, a lot of us try NOT to get too much caught up on short term variability of BTC prices because even though matters sometimes can seem like they are moving quickly in bitcoin, there also seems to exist a kind of 4-year fractal pattern, too, so in that regard it could take 4 years or longer for some of the price waves in BTC to play out, so probably we cannot really know a whole hell-of-a-lot merely from witnessing some shorter-term correlations or even anti-correlations with fiat, gold, equities, properties or other assets.

Yeah, of course, there can be a lot of back and forth deviation from the price where bitcoin "ought to be" including there can be deviation with the stock to flow model, but in the end, the combination of various BTC price prediction models including the most convincing ones 1) stock to flow model, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles are going to likely tell us a lot more about where bitcoin is going or likely to go rather than looking at whatever various kinds of manipulations are taking place in traditional fiat systems.


(Skin in the game:  Yes, for my part, I am still “all in”—and consistently with the foregoing, I don’t see anywhere else to go.  When I am bearish on fiat currencies, and I expect the stock market, etc. to look like 1929–32 if not worse, and precious metals are susceptible to seizure by governments unless some way can be found to buy them anonymously, what can I do but HODL?)

Sure, of course, having a healthy allocation to bitcoin seems to be a prudent approach in these times, and of course, individual circumstances are going to vary too.   If you have a lot of expenses in fiat, such as business, family and even other kinds of payments that you are due, then you may well want to make sure that you have a sufficient savings/holdings in fiat to cover those expenses and a 6 to 18 month cashflow projection may well be prudent because no one should want to be forced to sell BTC that is NOT of a time of their own choosing merely because they had over-allocated in BTC, yet on the other hand, if your income and cashflow comes in BTC, then you are in a different kind of dynamic in which you might be forced to cash out some BTC on a regular basis, too.  So sure, individual cashflow situations and expenses are going to vary in terms of what kinds of levels of allocation into BTC would be prudent for their particular circumstances.
9669  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 12:48:11 AM
End of the WO thread if JJG can't find any post to reply, instead updating his own reply.....

O.k.  I admit it.

You caught me without my pants. Sucks to be me.

 Embarrassed



 Embarrassed
9670  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 05, 2020, 12:19:27 AM
Route to $13,000 by the end of the month?

Wink
If i am being honest then i am Happy with around 15k EOY..

Portofolio goes down significantly every time even if we gets small correction, TBH it hurts when looking at blockfolio but its part of the deal so i don't mind. Am in for long haul anyway so i don't give any damn. Doing DCA religiously and as of now its working out pretty well for me. I might get panic if we go below 3k mark which is very unlikely.

Of course, if you have been attempting to carry out any kind of meaningful DCA'ing into BTC in the past 3 years, your BTC portfolio should be looking pretty good, even if you have screwed up a few times along the way, here and there.

This linked example shows $50 per week for the past 3 years, with 70% profits in BTC as compared with Gold and DJI only at 41% and 12%, respectively.

Of course, if you double the time period of DCA'ing into BTC to 6 years, a hypothetical DCA'ing investment will look even better with nearly 12x profits in BTC, and only 50% and 33% in Gold and DJI respectively.
9671  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2020, 11:22:23 PM
I ONLY visit the WO thread on bitcointalk.org. I always have a tab open on WO thread. If they delete WO thread, they delete bitcointalk.org for me. WO members are the real bitcoiners. No fake shit and bullshit like on reddit and twitter. I don't read this WO thread to post for some merit, otherwise I could have been Legendary a long time ago. Been on this site since 2011, only registered in 2013. Who gives a fuck about merit when you have bitcoin.

If nobody gives a fuck about merit they would have had no problems with disabling merit on this thread  Roll Eyes

SwayStar123, I read your thread about WO and about your frustration with posting your TA here.

I can't speak for the others, but if your TA is truly backed by something other than wild ass guess then personally I would welcome it here. Perhaps in the past if you were posting bearish TA out of the blue, then it might have been taken as a bit of trolling. A non-biased, no agenda look at TA would likely be most welcome.

Also, many people that hang out on the WO thread are unapologetically pro-BitcoinTM, many OGs and maximalists here. So if you are not in line with that, tread lightly.


If you recall, diptwat SwayStar123 was trying to proclaim that he was such a smartie BTC trader that he could turn .05 BTC into 1 BTC, and he made similar kinds of nonsense proclamations in this thread (largely attempting to ascribe himself BTC price soothsayer status) at the same time that he created his other thread (February/March of this year), causing him to get a considerable amount of backlash in this thread and in his other thread, because he was overpromising, underdelivering and not even coming close to achieving his BTC price prediction goals or acknowledging the various fallacies of his ways that had considerably good chances to mislead others.. furthermore not even acknowledging that he had pretty much lost all of his money in a pretty short time.  

Lots of regular peeps can get hurt from those kinds of false proclamations regarding the power of trading and advocating the use of margin trading, etc.

Sure, many of us have short memories, and we cannot always remember the nonsensical, scammy, shilling and/or misleading posts of other members, so I am not really blaming members for trying to give some benefit of the doubt to SwayStar123, even though he is coming off as a bit butt hurt.  

At least, I can give SwayStar123 some kudos for locking and closing the stupid-ass, seemingly attention-seeking shit-stirring thread that he had created (after 6 pages), probably NOT only because of nutildah's post, but for the likely realization coming from several of the posts within that thread showing that there was hardly any scintilla of merit to the bullshit claims that he was making, besides showing himself as a grudge holder, whiner and/or attention whore  - maybe another way of characterizing his behavior as a bit trollish.

have also demonstrated a willingness to be reasonable

The man who is right does not command respect, but the one who admits he is wrong

Edit: acknowledging a kind of subjective nature of merit distribution in that sometimes there can be such a thing as "reasonable trolls".... Go figure.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Edit 2:
[edited out]

Ironically i have gained more merit by bashing this thread than by participating in it, but I can admit i was wrong now

This guy is totally reasonable.

Who would have thunk?




Edit 3:
@SwayStar123
I think you should deserve to be merited these days because you were able to let us forget about the big picture here. You were able to let us forget the recent small dump and make sure that our respectable fellow WO people went on commenting your threads (and merit you).
I wonder where is JJG when you need him most.
 Grin

Apparently I was sleeping through the whole thing.
\
\




Better late than never, though, no?   Cry Cry Cry

Edit 4:
Perusing WO in search for news, I discovered the obscene spectacle of a self-entitled brat first demanding that the forum’s most popular thread be censored and memory-holed as “extremely toxic”—viz., he dislikes it—and then accumulating a pile of merits by whining about merits. [edited out the "wordy" parts   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Oh my!!!! Looks like nullius beat me to it, too.   Wink  I must have been detained in some kind of hibernation mode, or was it nullius who had been rattled from his own hibernation?
9672  Other / Meta / Re: Merit & new rank requirements on: September 04, 2020, 04:44:30 PM
I have just joined bitcoin talk for a while. Although I just go to see information and do bounty, but I still do not understand how to get merit and how to get it. please explain to help me understand this problem. thank you all.

A quality post will reward you with a Merit once it's noticed by a Merit Source, there are many merit sources around here who spend their valuable time in reading the post and giving Merit.

So just keep posting and you may never know that you could get merited on a post surprisingly, just have patience and wait for it.

Good luck.

I agree with the above observations and suggestions of OcTradism and suchmoon.

Additionally, merit sources are not the only ones who have smerit that can be sent to other members, as we know.

Anyone who has smerit can send them to other members, and accordingly, for every 2 merits that are received by any member, the merit receiver will earn 1 sendable merit for those 2 received.

We also know that a large number of sendable merits were airdropped when the merit system was implemented on January 24, 2018. Some of those members who received airdropped smerits have not sent all of their sendable merits, so any of those members could become motivated to send smerits to any post(s) that they determine to be interesting or helpful in some kind of way.. usually, bounty seekers are not going to inspire others to send them smerits or even to be the kinds of threads that attract the receipt of smerits (as has already been stated).
9673  Economy / Speculation / Re: Buy every dip! on: September 04, 2020, 04:28:38 PM
Learning to day-trade, or some kind of pro-active trading style is OK, but as a non-professional trader, don't put yourself under the illusion that will beat the top 10% of traders who do this professionally for a living.



We are plebs, accept that we are plebs, and we buy to HODL. There will only be 21,000,000 Bitcoins.

I just made a post that is somewhat related to buying the dip considerations, and suggesting that buying on a 10% dip is good, and buying on 18% dip is even better... don't get too greedy.. because hey you never know if the dip is done, or not.
9674  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2020, 03:58:32 PM
It already dipped below $10k (I spotted $9,987.86 about 30 minutes ago... lasting for at least 3 minutes).   Shocked

You already had your chance.  Wink

In other words: been there, done that.  Tongue

crap, just missed triggering a buy i had at 9920 then. catch it later maybe

Usually it is better to put your buy orders at above the BIGGER round numbers (in that case, the BIG number that seemed to have fallen pretty quickly was $10k), but sure, you never know because sometimes the spike does go temporarily past the BIGGER round number (which it did in this case).  

Historically, I have had plenty of orders (both buy and sell) that just miss by a few dollars and sometimes even missing by a few cents.. and sure, sometimes the BTC price does come back to that previous location, so usually it does not pay to change your order locations, unless you are changing your order locations for a different reason.. so overall, our mission as "swing traders" should be to try NOT to be emotional about whether our BTC orders are filled or not, but when they are "close but no cigar," we can become a bit irritated (which surely is a kind of emotional) because of how close the orders had come to filling (without happening).

You are right though, vapourminer.  It seems way too early to call the bottom for this particular cycle, currently - even though in my earlier post, I was playing around with BayAreaCoins about the bottom potentially being "in".... a little hopium on my behalf, probably.

By the way, this time around (the past 24-48 hours), I had BTC buy orders that were located about every $250 increment from $11,300-ish to $10k fill.. so my next buy order is around $9,800-ish... so when the BTC price moves a lot, then surely a lot of orders do end up getting filled (even in my case), and I try to NOT have any second guesses regarding all of the BTC that I bought all the way down the ladder, when I could have timed it and bought them all for lower prices (in theory).. In other words, I have no regrets about how it played out and glad that I was able to feel that I profited from the situation...

I kind of feel like I am supporting the cause and doing my "duties" when those multiple BTC buy orders are filling up all the way down the ladder, while at the same time satisfying my personal interests of stacking more sats along the way, too - even though in retrospect quite a few of them were bought at much higher prices than I "could have bought them" in theory.

Looks like we got our second dip below $10k, and this one lasted for only one minute (about 1 hour before this post), but it was deeper than the previous dip, described above.  So, if vapourminer did not change anything, then his buy order at $9,920-ish would have gotten filled because we got down to $9.902.43, and my next buy order $9,800-ish is still just sitting there... NO problema with me.  I remain neutral about my buy orders getting filled, except of course, if we come within a few dollars of my buy order, then I start to develop a bit of a small preference that it gets filled.. a short term rooting for down (against all reason, but the thought is that if we have gotten this far, what's a few more dollars?.... hahahahahahaha).  

Anyhow, I remain quite biased in my preference for UP rather than DOWN... because even if I might be able to stack a few sats on the way down, it continues to be minuscule amounts of stacking as compared with how much of a benefit comes from purely straight UP.  So let's take this latest dip down from $12,000 to $10k... that's a $2k dip in prices that my system has caused me to increase my stash by .1% a most (after the down and the up takes place, I maybe have stacked an additional .1% through my system)... Pretty piddly in the whole scheme of things, and would be way better off by dollar cost averaging over the longer term and continuing to add value on a regular basis.  Problem with my current personal situation is that I no longer feel that I am in a situation to continue to inject value into BTC because I both overachieved my goal in late 2014, continued to add value after 2014 (even after I had already overachieved) and the value of BTC had gone up 78x since late 2015 - but then we are stabilized at a BTC value that continues to be around 40x (given $10k as an approximate current price) and 26x (if we consider $6,600 as our current approximate 200 week moving average - which would be the theoretical extreme bottom).

The punchline continues to be that systematic attempts to profit from volatility remain as a kind of insurance (mostly psychological and a wee bit financial) more than any kind of meaningful way to stack sats or to profit in BTC overall, and the best ways to continue to stack sats and to accumulate BTC value is mostly by periodically injecting value, whether calling it DCA or calling it buying the dip or calling it something else.  And, by the way, for anyone looking for a dip, when you get anything over 10%, you are likely witnessing a significant and meaningful buying dip, and maybe you do not want to blow all of your buying wadd (or dry powder) on a 10% dip, and in this circumstance, so far, we have seen about 18% dip from $12,061 down to $9,902, which should be more than reasonable to pull the BTC buy trigger for anyone buying the dip, and sure you can keep some more value available, just in case to buy if there were more of a dip, but such additional dip may or may not happen this time around.  

Ps.  I see that we are getting a pretty BIG bounce off of this latest dip:  Observing $10,457 as I type this Ps, but I am not going to proclaim that the bottom is "in" because I believe that it is too early to confidently make those kinds of assertions.
9675  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2020, 12:51:23 AM
It already dipped below $10k (I spotted $9,987.86 about 30 minutes ago... lasting for at least 3 minutes).   Shocked

You already had your chance.  Wink

In other words: been there, done that.  Tongue

crap, just missed triggering a buy i had at 9920 then. catch it later maybe


Usually it is better to put your buy orders at above the BIGGER round numbers (in that case, the BIG number that seemed to have fallen pretty quickly was $10k), but sure, you never know because sometimes the spike does go temporarily past the BIGGER round number (which it did in this case).  

Historically, I have had plenty of orders (both buy and sell) that just miss by a few dollars and sometimes even missing by a few cents.. and sure, sometimes the BTC price does come back to that previous location, so usually it does not pay to change your order locations, unless you are changing your order locations for a different reason.. so overall, our mission as "swing traders" should be to try NOT to be emotional about whether our BTC orders are filled or not, but when they are "close but no cigar," we can become a bit irritated (which surely is a kind of emotional) because of how close the orders had come to filling (without happening).

You are right though, vapourminer.  It seems way too early to call the bottom for this particular cycle, currently - even though in my earlier post, I was playing around with BayAreaCoins about the bottom potentially being "in".... a little hopium on my behalf, probably.

By the way, this time around (the past 24-48 hours), I had BTC buy orders that were located about every $250 increment from $11,300-ish to $10k fill.. so my next buy order is around $9,800-ish... so when the BTC price moves a lot, then surely a lot of orders do end up getting filled (even in my case), and I try to NOT have any second guesses regarding all of the BTC that I bought all the way down the ladder, when I could have timed it and bought them all for lower prices (in theory).. In other words, I have no regrets about how it played out and glad that I was able to feel that I profited from the situation...

I kind of feel like I am supporting the cause and doing my "duties" when those multiple BTC buy orders are filling up all the way down the ladder, while at the same time satisfying my personal interests of stacking more sats along the way, too - even though in retrospect quite a few of them were bought at much higher prices than I "could have bought them" in theory.
9676  Economy / Speculation / Re: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!) on: September 04, 2020, 12:40:48 AM
One thing to maybe think about is the difference between me and many in this thread is I have nothing to lose. That means it’s a lot easier for me to be objective.


Holding bags in dollars, or various kinds of bcashes should not be anything to be proud of.  You could be quite well off, if you had spent the last three years DCA'ing into BTC rather than holding that other crap.. and maybe also you would have stacked a few sats.

Of course, with bitcoin, the longer the timeline that you have been accumulating (stacking sats), the better, so if you would have spent 6 years DCA'ing into BTC, you would have been even better off.

So, your supposedly having "nothing to lose" comes off as a bit of a double edged sword, maybe even coming off as butt hurt, in your case since you are sticking with some kind of a dream BTC crash and filling yourself up with hopium in regards to something that you are now proclaiming, not to own.  Just think of so many of the gains that you failed/refused to realize, and you are feeling self-righteous about that level of dumb?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes



Think about - it if BTC tanks, do you really think it won’t drag BSV down with it (and everything else). So people saying I want that to happen? (As opposed to merely forecasting what I see as inevitable) are projecting. In USD terms I’d be worse off! If BTCcontinues to rise then inevitable all the other shi.. er altcoins will follow.

Sounds like gobbledy gook to me.

This thread is about BTC and your prediction regarding BTC.. now you want to change it to some kind of pumpening of another kind of shitcoin?  Lot's of hopium in you to believe in that scam coin.


I realise I have tough crowd here on the “speculation” sub forum, cos y’all are basically here to discuss BTC price rises.
 

That's right.. Your original prediction was about how BTC's price was supposedly going down..

I know because It’s where I always hung out, so it’s kinda like Home from home, but speculation isn’t the same for me now as it was back then.
 

I have noticed that you are coming off as a kind of lost puppy, so i can see what you are saying in regards to not feeling the same.



Now I’m interested in  much more than BTC price pops, more interested in speculating on the nature of Bitcoin itself and what it will become.

Bitcoin is going to continue to gravitate value into it.. so your lame-ass prediction of down just looks foolish, at best.

Of course, it is not too late to start some kind of stacking of bitcoin plan..... we are still in early days.  NO need to worry your lil head off regarding where bitcoin might be going, but if you are investing in some variation of bcash, such as BSV, then of course, you have reason to worry about where that nonsense might be going.
9677  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 04, 2020, 12:03:51 AM
Come on baby.... dip under $10K and let me load a little!!!

I find it hard to believe that people would want to hold USD while the Government treats its fiat, economy, and personal freedoms so disrespectfully.  

This has got to be a little "fake" drop trying to shake out 12k buyers....

It already dipped below $10k (I spotted $9,987.86 about 30 minutes ago... lasting for at least 3 minutes).   Shocked

You already had your chance.  Wink

In other words: been there, done that.  Tongue
9678  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 03, 2020, 11:38:06 PM
Once more for the people in the back...bitcoin cannot sustain prices greater than $10k. It's nothing more than a fantasy. Proven by science and maths.

Finally!!!!!!

A positive sign.  

aka... proudhon


 Wink
9679  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 03, 2020, 04:25:36 PM
the noon wall report at 8.23am

fuck off juansnowgee

Are you dissing on one of my homeboys?  the name sounds familiar.

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

A good old weekend pump could be on the table  Grin

Hope so, else all the nice growth from the last month went down the drain.

Going down the drain would suck.   Cry Cry
9680  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 03, 2020, 03:20:00 AM
I don't know how some people expected this to go to the moon without really retesting the previous huge resistance. For full year, we were trying to break 10500 and now we should go to ATH or 16k without retesting it but for 10 minutes in that flash crash from the first time we went to 12k.

No chance, zero logic in that. That level needs to be properly tested for bull run to continue.


Tone Vays and some of his following used to spout out that kind of nonsense regarding having to retest $1,300, and they were arguing that point for much of 2018, 2019 and maybe even in 2020... it's just nonsense talk to say that we "have to" test down support before we are ready and able to go up.

What I fucking hate is that this is lowering my chances to accumulate bitcoins trading alts as they shit themselves as soon as bitcoin farts.

You should not be fucking around with alts anyhow.  Many of us in this thread are neither here to talk about shitcoins nor to hear about other members and their poor judgement choices to be involved in shitcoins.  

Thanks for advice, but honestly, I don't give a flying fuck what are you here for. So, with all due respect, kindly fuck off with your patronizing bullshit, this thread is 90% about everything except what it is for and I have 0 need to ask you for permission what to write about and to care about what you care about. Stick your orders to your arse. Cheers

To not repeat myself, same applies to anyone who quotes me with same kind of crap. Cheers to you too.

It appears that you have a real "great" ability to handle your temperature.. Hopefully, you did not sell too much of king daddy, too soon while wishening that it were to go down before up.

Should there be a prayer for you, too, that you are not letting shitcoins fog your lil brain, to the extent that you have any such thingie-ma-jiggie beyond the argument and the defensiveness buttons, BIG boy.  

If I knew your grandma, I would give her a call, and tell her to take you down some milk and cookies, right away.  Surely you are working diligently with important and insightful analyses. Wink
 




 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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