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1  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: GPU Mining profitability is a joke on: October 08, 2014, 01:06:31 AM
This very problem creates a systemic failure risk for cryptos. All of these altcoins are good at showing this potential when the market crashes. If difficulty jumps up or market value dies, then the network can die from a profitability point of view as miners back off and block rates plummet. The recovery point is a kind of hard reset where the P2P nature drives a consensus on difficulty correction. Once the margin is low, only high-volume, low margin providers can compete in power efficient hashing. Basically, if a chip producer thinks there is any ROI in mining, why sell any chips at all?

Anyway on the profitability side, you should consider energy consumption with respect to heating since winter is rolling in. The thermal efficiency of a heat pump is proportional to the outdoor air temp, and can be 3x efficiency down to 1.1x, or if you don't have a heat pump or gas, then the mining waste heat directly offsets my heating costs. The power is not free but it appears that way on the books, so I'm basically leasing 500W of GPU power at-cost, which can be $30/m.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Joint statement by 5 chinese exchanges (they will keep operating) on: May 06, 2014, 11:43:39 PM
OK - so what "stop financing new financing currency after currency to pay off all of the facility or stopping leveraged finance trading operations" means? Does that mean that they will stop receiving funds and only let people trade with the money they already have on the exchanges?

I guess that jump today was because of this statement - but if it means what I think it means - then it is in fact bearish.

I don't think this is correct. I think it means that the exchanges can no longer offer leveraged trading or loans, with an overall idea of taking the gambling aspect away.

Baidu:
To comply with the policies and regulations, operation trading platform in the framework of legal compliance, before the end of May 10th the new financing currency, stop lever transactions in all financing or money repaid after thawing

Youdao (much better than google):
Abide by the policies and regulations, operating in the framework of legal compliance trading platform, stop before May 10th new borrowing money, after all financing or melt money paid stop leverage trading business

Edit: It's stopping both loans and deposits. 存 and 贷款
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Largest ever bitcoin days destroyed- discuss on: March 07, 2014, 05:47:43 PM
Why this odd numbers? Why did he not split up like -> 180  -> 85  + 95 -> (40 + 35)+(45 + 50) -> etc.


Well the coins are behaving like they would had they just been loaded to the hot wallet of MtGox based on the leaked PHP code.

The logic there was to split large outputs (>500 coins) every 10 minutes, randomly between 40 and 60% of the input to each new output.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 03, 2014, 04:09:52 AM
All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.


Wait, what? A professor of computer science is collecting information from a website by hand?

You've obviously never seen a real professor of computer science. Have you seen anyone use emacs to send an email?  Grin
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Blockchain.info CONFIRMS MTGOX INSOLVENCY on: February 25, 2014, 03:44:31 AM
Yeah, it was mentioned alright... by a bunch of low life scumbags trying to spread more FUD with fake screen caps.

Neither the Blockchain blog nor the Coinbase blog officially mention the word "insolvency".

And this one? http://www.circle.com/2014/02/24/joint-statement-regarding-insolvency-mt-gox/
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 03:42:25 AM
Why aren't the exchanges crashing is my question.

Give them few minutes

This event was already priced in by speculators.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 25, 2014, 03:17:18 AM
EVERYONE... they just changed it from "Joint statement regarding mtgox insolvency" to "Joint statement regarding mtgox"

anybody have a screencap of the original?

http://blog.blockchain.info/2014/02/25/joint-statement/

It's joint so its across a few places you know.

Edit:

http://www.circle.com/2014/02/24/joint-statement-regarding-insolvency-mt-gox/

8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Possible FUD: "Leaked" Gox doc claims that 750,000 coins lost over several years on: February 25, 2014, 12:27:01 AM

Quote
The cold storage has been wiped out due to a leak in the hot wallet.

What does this even mean?? The hot wallet was run on a water cooled server which was sitting above the cold storage paper wallets and the leak cause the ink to smudge making the keys unreadable? Come on. Even a fool compares assets to liabilities and would notice such a thing.

Quote
.. an otherwise reliable source...I trust the authenticity...If this is a hoax, ..I am fully blindsided by [it].  I fear, however, that it is not.

Believe me bro.


So tone neutral:

Quote
Apocolyptic,Crisis...  [MtGox] can go bankrupt at any moment, and certainly deserves to..., cause governments to react...harsly, ... this could be the end of Bitcoin... This is catastrophic, and I am sorry to share this... I fear

FUD
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 24, 2014, 01:38:50 PM
Is this the "pull-n-dump" technique? Where the seller manipulates the market by showing impatience and willingness to accept slippage? So that stamp can go over 579.34 now?
10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2014, 06:30:12 PM
It's okay guys, gox is totally solvent now.

11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Its Thursday In Japan - Withdrawal Update Coming Within Next 12 Hours on: February 20, 2014, 07:33:12 AM
it takes like 2 weeks to just download the blockchain from scratch...

That's odd, it takes me under two days from a clean install.

Maybe he lives in Niggeria or something?

takes 2-3 hours per month for me. running stock reference client. maybe something is off. let me know Smiley

It used to take a long time, back in early 2013. The reference client used some terrible flat file database system and it was basically disk I/O bound trying to download and validate transactions. The newer version switched to a different database type that is considerably faster, and typically network bound.
12  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: February 20, 2014, 07:26:51 AM
The benefit of speculation is that when the actual event happens, it's less shocking to the market overall.
13  Economy / Speculation / Re: Lets say MtGox reenables withdrawals: How high will we spike? on: February 20, 2014, 01:21:28 AM

Absolutely not.
14  Economy / Speculation / Re: Lets say MtGox reenables withdrawals: How high will we spike? on: February 20, 2014, 01:04:51 AM
Now is the time for the ultimate market troll. The troll needs to announce "withdrawls will be re-enabled on Friday" and then announce on Friday that "some unexpected technical issues arose" and he "has to delay it again" but he is very sorry and will "update" "in another 4 business days".

Look they're testing their code, ran into some bugs:

https://blockchain.info/address/127gn88Zhp7pZmGsFLm8R2CAdL1JKrjsZi
https://blockchain.info/address/16aCPsLdVxMYDMzQtiG9vXj9yYY5Zy2AJ4
15  Economy / Speculation / Re: The Volatility of BTC makes it hard for companies to accept it. on: November 26, 2013, 05:32:59 PM
It's a misunderstanding that bitcoin has been created to facilitate pervasive low cost transactions. Transactions are important, and they occur, but they are not designed to support low level trade in the same way that you can't easily buy a tube of toothpaste with gold. Improvements to BTC may make that a reality, but today it is certainly not the case. Additionally, we are in the stop-gap phase where transactions are still intended to execute at a fiat level. If BTC is successful, then transactions will be priced in BTC independent of the fiat levels. The value of the dollar goes up and down all the time, but merchants generally aren't market pricing items to the second based on exchange rates, and most don't really care. The additional gain-able profit is pure speculation anyway.

What is more likely is that a layer of banking will be built on top of BTC where involving the blockchain in every transaction is unnecessary. You probably use real fiat once a week if that to buy some small items. Instead you trust some 3rd party update their ledger for everyone and give you the real fiat if you asked for it. Broad adoption of losable wallets on cellphones spells consumer-protection disaster.
16  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: GoldCoin™ (GLD) Thread - The Gold Standard of Digital Currency [OFFICIAL THREAD] on: November 25, 2013, 10:59:38 PM
Seems like the DoS prevention code in GLD prevents people from hopping on when it comes to the top of the profit list.

The defense protects the network by preventing hashpower from being added to quickly.

It basically gives more power to the little guy by removing the advantage of someone using an industrial strength mining rig jumping on the network for some quick and easy coins. Mining goldcoin is no longer an exercise in raw hashing power.

Akumaburn wrote about this is detail yesterday: https://www.gldtalk.org/index.php?topic=1262.msg6081#msg6081


 

It is not working, I do believe you broke it. I mine Gold coin from time to time but cannot even find a block that does not orphan at this point, even though I found several today. This might protect it from the multi-pool but it also stops the people who are serious about it. Major problem in my opinion.

It also seems to support single-pool mining aka 100% attack. Bringing online 5.1% to support? Screwed. Bringing on 51% to attack? Harder. Joining the existing 99%? Win.
17  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: GoldCoin™ (GLD) Thread - The Gold Standard of Digital Currency [OFFICIAL THREAD] on: November 25, 2013, 09:28:18 PM
Seems like the DoS prevention code in GLD prevents people from hopping on when it comes to the top of the profit list.
18  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: How long will btcchina continue 0% fees? on: November 24, 2013, 07:19:08 AM
Forever? There's a lot of competition there, and it's not like there is any overhead in each transaction. The real question is why does anyone else charge a fee?
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: BTC dropping on BTC-E but not Coinbase on: November 24, 2013, 06:10:07 AM
I bought one btc Nov 9th for $307. When I tried to buy another, I was told that my first purchase had to be
completed before buying any more. After several days my first btc purchase was still "pending" and I was informed that my initial buy would be
cleared on Nov 18th! Finally my btc showed up in my account but now I see that Coinbase is requiring a 30 day wait
before I can buy more bitcoins! Apparently this exchange does not want my business. I'm done with Coinbase's Coin of the Month Club.

It's all about fraud and risk profiles, especially when doing business in the US with a bank that wants to know everything about that money you just sent there. Coinbase's host bank will drop as soon as they have any legit claims of failed consumer protections, something bitcoin is not setup to provide.
20  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Technical Support / Re: URGENT!!! Bitcoin 4.8.3 (0.8.5?) NOT SYNCRONISING!!! on: November 23, 2013, 07:46:08 PM
Qt is 4.8.3 which is the toolkit used for cross-platform GUI basically. Go to help->about bitcoin and make sure that says v0.8.5.

As of my posting the current number of blocks is 271139

go to help->debug window and see what your estimated total blocks shows... you might need to manually add a peer that can give you some blocks you need. There seems to be a bit of a bandwidth shortage with all the new full clients coming online downloading the whole blockchain. I know I upload 40GB/day to this.
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