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From ML on his Telegram Channel: Да, в бок. Идём в боковик. $6000-$7000 длительная зона накопления битков.
Google Translate: Yes, in the side. We go to the outset. $ 6000- $ 7000 long zone of accumulation of cues.
As usual, need some Russian language speakers to translate and decipher.
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Where does Enky post at besides his website?
See Enky's blogpost his Jan 18 blogpost here: https://btctrading.wordpress.com/On the comments to his post, he replies on Feb 1 to one of the posted questions: Bearish Scenario is in place with today drop, if there is a repetition of 2013-2015 beark market the support area might be the one from 4300 to 5800, check my twitter profile to see the chart.He also says that he plans to post his BTC analysis when possible. His twitter profile is here: https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_TradingHe also confirms there that he'll plan on continuing his BTC analysis. |
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Thanks for the explanation, that was great help. Only thing I don't understand is the following Or he's protecting those who bought at the previous "dip" to $10K based on his advice since we're heading down much further before finishing wave 4.
He did say wave 4 was complete though right? So surely he doesn't mean we're heading down further, or was he not entirely clear on the wave 4 being complete part? I was under the impression that the red circle on the latest chart represented the bottom that we will never see again, or maybe will only be seen after crash from 100k. Two days ago, he didn't say "complete", but he drew a large red dot in the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement region and said from here we go up. He also said wave 4 is underway. Regarding his comment about bounce back to $13,000-$15,000, maybe something is lost in Google translate or something more subtle. Perhaps a Russian comrade here can help translate, or hopefully ML will clear things up as we approach it. |
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As I understand it, ML indicated wave 3 was finished since BTC price had dropped to near the Fibonacci level of 61.8% from the start of the wave, i.e., ($19,800-$150)*(1-0.618)=$7,506. I guess he used $7,700 as close enough, especially since these numbers could be exchange dependent and may not need to be exact anyway. Clearly that's when he decided wave 3 was finished and changed it to witness of the 3 to witness of the 5 and said we are in 4 now.
In one chart version that seems to have been deleted from his Russian TradingView account, wave 2 was shown as the 2013-2015 bear market which was obviously a slow decline. A common EW pattern is that if wave 2 is a slow decline, then wave 4 is a rapid decline, and if wave 2 is rapid then wave 4 is slow. The latter is the norm in many EW waves, but the former one seems to fit where we are now. Another chart of his shows that wave 4 ending at $7,709 which is close to $7,563, i.e., 61.8% retracement of $19,800, and he commented that's the end of wave 4 and we go up from there.
As far as I can tell, and as of now, the EW pattern is holding and ML is on track. The EW pattern could break of course, but ML has stated he's convinced of the uptrend.
He's projecting that we bounce back to $13,000-$15,000 in the short term, but I can't tell why he's saying that's where people who bought on his advice could sell. Google Translate says "Merge there, because it is not for you." Either he's being sarcastic and saying people who still don't believe him could sell there and thus miss the $100K run. Or he's protecting those who bought at the previous "dip" to $10K based on his advice since we're heading down much further before finishing wave 4.
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Following ML's old posts, new posts, and this thread for the past few months has been nothing short of amazing. In order for me to better understand his teaching, I could either learn Russian or learn TA. For me, learning Russian is impossible but learning TA may be worth a shot, though I realize neither I nor anyone can come close to ML's ways. Nonetheless, I would understand his ways better, and learning TA would serve me better in the long-run anyway. I realize there's ample TA resources, but would like to stick to recommendations that are associated with ML. For instance, ML sometimes has referenced Enky who in turn recommended some books: https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2018/01/02/long-term-update-2018-outlook-with-entropic-methods/#comments. But I haven't yet found ML himself make any recommendations. If so, could someone provide me a link to that information? Thanks. |
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just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom. however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range
But he is ruling that possibility out. He is saying that unless the 10k is tested, he strongly doubts more than 20k-30k. Higher than 20-30k requires testing 10k. If that test to 10k happens from 17k, then bull run continues to 70k-100k. If it happens from 30k, then this bull run is over. I believe one of his earlier posts said 2 years of a bear market this current bull market, but I'm hoping he'll clarify more once 10k is tested. Disclaimer: I'm solely relying on Google Translate. Perhaps a native Russian speaker can clarify. |
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Here's my interpretation:
A drop from 17K to 10K- (40+%) would mean that the bull run continues to 70K-100K.
A drop from 30K+ to 10K- (67%+) then the bull run is over (bubble caput) and no chance of 70K-100K. I think he earlier said the next bear market would be 2 years.
It seems to me that since we crossed 17K and are now approaching 20K , the latter option is more likely.
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