Analysis

[Biodom]

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

I am really confused, ML said that the "historic 3" has ended, he even changed the name of the community to "witnesses of 5" (was 3 before), during the dump to 7.7 he said that it is nothing in comparison with the next correction. So it seems that he thinks that the 2015-2017 bull market has ended. Elsewhere on the side he said he thinks 4 would last only a couple of months, would be strange for a largest scale bear market, the previous one was almost 2 years.

If the dumps end here, in his red circle, and we go up within a couple of months (which I hope), I do not understand why to say that the historic 3 has ended? Then rise to 19k would be just (3) of 3, and the current correction (4) of 3.

Is the reason ML says historic 3 has ended is because we hit, or even went below, 61.8 Fib? Anyway, his current count seems less logical than all his previous ideas, I still think he may adjust it. 

regardless of what will happen and whether his is right or not, you got his opinion exactly backwards.
His opinion: wave 3 is 19.6K, 4 is what is going on now, later wave 5 at 50-100K.
what you are talking about as "nothing in comparison" is something that will come AFTER 5 at 50-100K.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

I am really confused, ML said that the "historic 3" has ended, he even changed the name of the community to "witnesses of 5" (was 3 before), during the dump to 7.7 he said that it is nothing in comparison with the next correction. So it seems that he thinks that the 2015-2017 bull market has ended. Elsewhere on the side he said he thinks 4 would last only a couple of months, would be strange for a largest scale bear market, the previous one was almost 2 years.

If the dumps end here, in his red circle, and we go up within a couple of months (which I hope), I do not understand why to say that the historic 3 has ended? Then rise to 19k would be just (3) of 3, and the current correction (4) of 3.

Is the reason ML says historic 3 has ended is because we hit, or even went below, 61.8 Fib? Anyway, his current count seems less logical than all his previous ideas, I still think he may adjust it. 

regardless of what will happen and whether his is right or not, you got his opinion exactly backwards.
His opinion: wave 3 is 19.6K, 4 is what is going on now, later wave 5 at 50-100K.
what you are talking about as "nothing in comparison" is something that will come AFTER 5 at 50-100K.

So a 50-100k bullrun would mean a massive drop to the 4 or 3 digits?

[Biodom]

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

I am really confused, ML said that the "historic 3" has ended, he even changed the name of the community to "witnesses of 5" (was 3 before), during the dump to 7.7 he said that it is nothing in comparison with the next correction. So it seems that he thinks that the 2015-2017 bull market has ended. Elsewhere on the side he said he thinks 4 would last only a couple of months, would be strange for a largest scale bear market, the previous one was almost 2 years.

If the dumps end here, in his red circle, and we go up within a couple of months (which I hope), I do not understand why to say that the historic 3 has ended? Then rise to 19k would be just (3) of 3, and the current correction (4) of 3.

Is the reason ML says historic 3 has ended is because we hit, or even went below, 61.8 Fib? Anyway, his current count seems less logical than all his previous ideas, I still think he may adjust it.  

Regardless of what will happen and whether his is right or not, you got his opinion exactly backwards.
His opinion: wave 3 is 19.6K, 4 is what is going on now, later wave 5 at 50-100K.
What you are talking about as "nothing in comparison" is something that will come AFTER 5 at 50-100K.

So a 50-100k bullrun would mean a massive drop to the 4 or 3 digits?

He did not provide any numbers, but my take is maybe a 90-95% decrease from a very very high number.
Say, 60K to 6K or 120K to the same 6K. incidentally, the TenX guy (Julian Hosp) had similar numbers:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/26/bitcoin-price-in-2018-could-hit-60000-but-another-crash-is-coming.html
Something for comparison is Amazon in 1999-2001 ($100 to $5). You know what happened afterwards  

[somac.]

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

[Tzupy]

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_8317
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/

According to google translate he thinks we are witnessing something similar to the correction of April 2013. Short term a rebound to 13-15k.
Once current correction will end next wave will bring us to 100k. Unfortunately google translate and my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

Excellent, thanks for catching this post. That's been my thinking as well....that we are in a correction similar to April 2013. If that fractal plays out, it means that the lows are probably already in with the Daily 200MA tag. But it would also mean the correction isn't over. If that's the case, I'd expect a bounce to the .618 or so before bleeding back down. Glad to see the master agrees!

Timing-wise, things are taking much longer than in 2013. To give some perspective: From top to bottom in April 2013 ($260 to $45), it took 3 days. By comparison, this leg down took 6 weeks.

 $45 was a spike that disappeared pretty fast.  We didn't begin recovering from April 2013 until $63 at the end of June.  And 3 months after that, Silk Road and BOOM.

Don't try to deduce too much from the comparison with April - June 2013. Back then the price was pumped by Markus the bot with fake fiat, the real fiat came in after the spike to 260$.
So the deep crash and recovery broke the EW rules, and it's not helpful to compare with the current situation, at least not from the EW perspective, I am still trying from a simpler MACD perspective.
During the summer and autumn of 2013 the only way to "cash out" from MtGox, the leading exchange, was to buy bitcoin, so even the recovery could have been faked. Back then many expected a final drop to ~30$.

[Biodom]

Don't try to deduce too much from the comparison with April - June 2013. Back then the price was pumped by Markus the bot with fake fiat, the real fiat came in after the spike to 260$.
So the deep crash and recovery broke the EW rules, and it's not helpful to compare with the current situation, at least not from the EW perspective, I am still trying from a simpler MACD perspective.
During the summer and autumn of 2013 the only way to "cash out" from MtGox, the leading exchange, was to buy bitcoin, so even the recovery could have been faked. Back then many expected a final drop to ~30$.

The efficient market hypothesis suggests that market 'knows" about manipulation.
If we start talking about manipulations, where would it stop?
EVERYTHING is manipulated, so this becomes a circular argument.
Please, show me something (an asset class) that is not manipulated.

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

[somac.]

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

In his last blog post https://btctrading.wordpress.com/

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows. This possible bearish scenario would convince me to liquidate all the bitcoins i bought in 2014-2015. As long XBTUSD stays above 9500$ i’m not worried for my long term position.

I got the 7700 bit wrong though, should have said 7500

[windjc]

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

In his last blog post https://btctrading.wordpress.com/

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows. This possible bearish scenario would convince me to liquidate all the bitcoins i bought in 2014-2015. As long XBTUSD stays above 9500$ i’m not worried for my long term position.

I got the 7700 bit wrong though, should have said 7500

Wow. Reading his  blog entries we was wrong a lot.

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

In his last blog post https://btctrading.wordpress.com/

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows. This possible bearish scenario would convince me to liquidate all the bitcoins i bought in 2014-2015. As long XBTUSD stays above 9500$ i’m not worried for my long term position.

I got the 7700 bit wrong though, should have said 7500

Wow. Reading his  blog entries we was wrong a lot.

+1, Master has a much better track record than Enky. However, Master's current wave counts seems wrong to me, I mean saying that the historical wave 3 has ended, not its 3rd subwave (i.e. (3)).

[somac.]

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

In his last blog post https://btctrading.wordpress.com/

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows. This possible bearish scenario would convince me to liquidate all the bitcoins i bought in 2014-2015. As long XBTUSD stays above 9500$ i’m not worried for my long term position.

I got the 7700 bit wrong though, should have said 7500

Wow. Reading his  blog entries we was wrong a lot.

+1, Master has a much better track record than Enky. However, Master's current wave counts seems wrong to me, I mean saying that the historical wave 3 has ended, not its 3rd subwave (i.e. (3)).

Can't say I've read his previous entries, only read about ENKY recently since ML had an interest in his analysis. But his last blog entry and comments in that entry have been spot on, so far.

Hopefully ML is right though, but, I have heard other people being critical of his wave 3. In your opinion where do you think wave 3 would end?

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

In your opinion where do you think wave 3 would end?

I really like ML earlier analysis, which is also consistent with BETI:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

as you can see from this, it all depends on timing. If we go there very quickly, 2-3 months (seems completely unlikely now), it would be "only" 60-70k, if it will take longer, will be 100k or more. I know it sounds a bit like a sci-fi now, but if you believe in bitcoin expenontial netwrok growth/price growth theory, something like that should happen. It is also possible that maturing of the markets will cause flatter peaks and dips, this analysis assumes same relative peaks as in 2013. Anyway, according to exponential growth the "fair price" of btc should be around 13k this August, is around 8k now.

[somac.]

In your opinion where do you think wave 3 would end?

I really like ML earlier analysis, which is also consistent with BETI:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

as you can see from this, it all depends on timing. If we go there very quickly, 2-3 months (seems completely unlikely now), it would be "only" 60-70k, if it will take longer, will be 100k or more. I know it sounds a bit like a sci-fi now, but if you believe in bitcoin expenontial netwrok growth/price growth theory, something like that should happen. It is also possible that maturing of the markets will cause flatter peaks and dips, this analysis assumes same relative peaks as in 2013. Anyway, according to exponential growth the "fair price" of btc should be around 13k this August, is around 8k now.

So, your saying that wave 3 is still in progress and we will either end up at 40k if we rally quickly and 100k if we do it slower. To me, Seeing as we've had this correction so far it would look like we are heading towards the 100k. But, this correction is much more deep then the one on that chart (14k) so despite this deep correction wave 3 would still be in play?

how deep would this correction have to get to show wave 3 is over?

[abedit]

As I understand it, ML indicated wave 3 was finished since BTC price had dropped to near the Fibonacci level of 61.8% from the start of the wave, i.e., ($19,800-$150)*(1-0.618)=$7,506.  I guess he used $7,700 as close enough, especially since these numbers could be exchange dependent and may not need to be exact anyway. Clearly that's when he decided wave 3 was finished and changed it to witness of the 3 to witness of the 5 and said we are in 4 now.

In one chart version that seems to have been deleted from his Russian TradingView account, wave 2 was shown as the 2013-2015 bear market which was obviously a slow decline. A common EW pattern is that if wave 2 is a slow decline, then wave 4 is a rapid decline, and if wave 2 is rapid then wave 4 is slow.  The latter is the norm in many EW waves, but the former one seems to fit where we are now.   Another chart of his shows that wave 4 ending at $7,709 which is close to $7,563, i.e., 61.8% retracement of $19,800, and he commented that's the end of wave 4 and we go up from there.

As far as I can tell, and as of now, the EW pattern is holding and ML is on track.  The EW pattern could break of course, but ML has stated he's convinced of the uptrend.

He's projecting that we bounce back to $13,000-$15,000 in the short term, but I can't tell why he's saying that's where people who bought on his advice could sell.  Google Translate says "Merge there, because it is not for you."  Either he's being sarcastic and saying people who still don't believe him could sell there and thus miss the $100K run.  Or he's protecting those who bought at the previous "dip" to $10K based on his advice since we're heading down much further before finishing wave 4.

[somac.]

Thanks for the explanation, that was great help.

Only thing I don't understand is the following

Or he's protecting those who bought at the previous "dip" to $10K based on his advice since we're heading down much further before finishing wave 4.

He did say wave 4 was complete though right? So surely he doesn't mean we're heading down further, or was he not entirely clear on the wave 4 being complete part?

I was under the impression that the red circle on the latest chart represented the bottom that we will never see again, or maybe will only be seen after crash from 100k.

[abedit]

Thanks for the explanation, that was great help.

Only thing I don't understand is the following

Or he's protecting those who bought at the previous "dip" to $10K based on his advice since we're heading down much further before finishing wave 4.

He did say wave 4 was complete though right? So surely he doesn't mean we're heading down further, or was he not entirely clear on the wave 4 being complete part?

I was under the impression that the red circle on the latest chart represented the bottom that we will never see again, or maybe will only be seen after crash from 100k.

Two days ago, he didn't say "complete", but he drew a large red dot in the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement region and said from here we go up.  He also said wave 4 is underway.  Regarding his comment about bounce back to $13,000-$15,000, maybe something is lost in Google translate or something more subtle.  Perhaps a Russian comrade here can help translate, or hopefully ML will clear things up as we approach it.

[somac.]

Thanks for the explanation, that was great help.

Only thing I don't understand is the following

Or he's protecting those who bought at the previous "dip" to $10K based on his advice since we're heading down much further before finishing wave 4.

He did say wave 4 was complete though right? So surely he doesn't mean we're heading down further, or was he not entirely clear on the wave 4 being complete part?

I was under the impression that the red circle on the latest chart represented the bottom that we will never see again, or maybe will only be seen after crash from 100k.

Two days ago, he didn't say "complete", but he drew a large red dot in the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement region and said from here we go up.  He also said wave 4 is underway.  Regarding his comment about bounce back to $13,000-$15,000, maybe something is lost in Google translate or something more subtle.  Perhaps a Russian comrade here can help translate, or hopefully ML will clear things up as we approach it.

Great, thank you again. You have really cleared this up for me.

[TeeBone]

Wave 4...it's not unusual to be a large ABCDE triangle/wedge. So Luke can still be right, that we hit the bottom at 7700. The wedge can take 6-12 months to form.

[Biodom]

Two days ago, he didn't say "complete", but he drew a large red dot in the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement region and said from here we go up.  He also said wave 4 is underway.  Regarding his comment about bounce back to $13,000-$15,000, maybe something is lost in Google translate or something more subtle.  Perhaps a Russian comrade here can help translate, or hopefully ML will clear things up as we approach it.

Not a comrade, but rather Mr, but will try:

Re 3 and 4 he said the following in his original tongue:

Teкyщee пaдeниe oчeнь xopoшo oтcкчит в paйoн 13000-15000 в кopoткocpoчнoй пepcпeктивe, гдe cмoгyт pacпpoдaтьcя тe, ктo зaкyпилcя пo мoeмy coвeтy, нo yжe ycпeл пpoкляcть вce нa cвeтe и oбмoчить пaмпepcы. Cливaйтecь тaм, пoтoмy чтo этo нe для вac.

Best translation I can conjure:

The current decline might very well re-bounce into the 13000-15000 region (short term), where those who bought on my advice [I assume his advice re buying below 10K], but already cursed everything in the world and peed their pampers would be able to sell. Dump there, because this is not for you [a.k.a you piss your pampers during the 10K-7.7 K move-refers to those who got scared].

[bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2]

Not a comrade, but rather Mr, but will try:

Re 3 and 4 he said the following in his original tongue:

Teкyщee пaдeниe oчeнь xopoшo oтcкчит в paйoн 13000-15000 в кopoткocpoчнoй пepcпeктивe, гдe cмoгyт pacпpoдaтьcя тe, ктo зaкyпилcя пo мoeмy coвeтy, нo yжe ycпeл пpoкляcть вce нa cвeтe и oбмoчить пaмпepcы. Cливaйтecь тaм, пoтoмy чтo этo нe для вac.

Best translation I can conjure:

The current decline might very well re-bounce into the 13000-15000 region (short term), where those who bought on my advice [I assume his advice re buying below 10K], but already cursed everything in the world and peed their pampers would be able to sell. Dump there, because this is not for you [a.k.a you piss your pampers during the 10K-7.7 K move-refers to those who got scared].

Biodom, he is clearly referring here to his earlier advice to "ruthlessly buy" under 10k. I have been learning Russian for many years, but it is not my first language, so I am struggling to understand subtler points, and the Master likes to sounds mysterious at times . So you think this "sell because it is not for you" advise does not mean he thinks we are going much down again after 13-15k, but is more an advice to the "nonbelievers" to sell there, not at the current bottom?

Re: wave 4. ML clearly thinks it is underway, says in comments it should take a couple months.