Analysis

[abedit]

Here's my interpretation:

A drop from 17K to 10K- (40+%) would mean that the bull run continues to 70K-100K.
A drop from 30K+ to 10K- (67%+) then the bull run is over (bubble caput) and no chance of 70K-100K.  I think he earlier said the next bear market would be 2 years.

It seems to me that since we crossed 17K and are now approaching 20K , the latter option is more likely.

[baseke]

actually there is master luc's prediction from may https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/
where he focast price action to 30 k down to 15 k then 100k.

[Denker]

actually there is master luc's prediction from may https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/
where he focast price action to 30 k down to 15 k then 100k.

Yes everybody here in this thread knows this!
However don't take those chart as a guarantee!
And if you read his blog posts you would know this. He just recently said he expects us the price to retest the 10k.
That would be a ~50% retracement form the actual price. And if we should go higher that would could end in a 60-70% retracement.
10k is a pretty significant, psychological number. Therefore to test this as a hopefully new solid bottom seems inevitable to me.
So buckle up my friend! There will be blood on the street before we go for 100k/BTC!!

[prophetx]

just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom.  however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range

[abedit]

just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom.  however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range

But he is ruling that possibility out.  He is saying that unless the 10k is tested, he strongly doubts more than 20k-30k.  Higher than 20-30k requires testing 10k.  If that test to 10k happens from 17k, then bull run continues to 70k-100k.  If it happens from 30k, then this bull run is over.  I believe one of his earlier posts said 2 years of a bear market this current bull market, but I'm hoping he'll clarify more once 10k is tested.

Disclaimer:  I'm solely relying on Google Translate. Perhaps a native Russian speaker can clarify.

[JayJuanGee]

just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom.  however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range

But he is ruling that possibility out.  He is saying that unless the 10k is tested, he strongly doubts more than 20k-30k.  Higher than 20-30k requires testing 10k.  If that test to 10k happens from 17k, then bull run continues to 70k-100k.  If it happens from 30k, then this bull run is over.  I believe one of his earlier posts said 2 years of a bear market this current bull market, but I'm hoping he'll clarify more once 10k is tested.

Disclaimer:  I'm solely relying on Google Translate. Perhaps a native Russian speaker can clarify.

It is strange to believe that anyone can serve as a kind of oracle, and sure a lot of those masterluc points make sense - but why should not any of us be able to think through these kinds of scenarios ourselves in order to come to our own reasonable projections regarding price dynamics, which price dynamics also do change based on volume and how much force and speed in which we experience certain price movements, up and down?

I will admit that personally, I don't project beyond one or two legs, and I suppose that makes masterluc and some of the others "special" to be projecting out longer time lines with underlying bullish assumptions (which have ended up playing out, largely). 

[btcone111]

just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom.  however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range

But he is ruling that possibility out.  He is saying that unless the 10k is tested, he strongly doubts more than 20k-30k.  Higher than 20-30k requires testing 10k.  If that test to 10k happens from 17k, then bull run continues to 70k-100k.  If it happens from 30k, then this bull run is over.  I believe one of his earlier posts said 2 years of a bear market this current bull market, but I'm hoping he'll clarify more once 10k is tested.

Disclaimer:  I'm solely relying on Google Translate. Perhaps a native Russian speaker can clarify.

It is strange to believe that anyone can serve as a kind of oracle, and sure a lot of those masterluc points make sense - but why should not any of us be able to think through these kinds of scenarios ourselves in order to come to our own reasonable projections regarding price dynamics, which price dynamics also do change based on volume and how much force and speed in which we experience certain price movements, up and down?

I will admit that personally, I don't project beyond one or two legs, and I suppose that makes masterluc and some of the others "special" to be projecting out longer time lines with underlying bullish assumptions (which have ended up playing out, largely). 

a lot of people pretend they are good at predicting tops and bottoms. As a matter of fact, only 1% or so are really good at it.
If everyone is good at everything, everyone could be Bill Gates or Elon Musk. But no, that's not how the world works.

[Hope_Trader]

just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom.  however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range

But he is ruling that possibility out.  He is saying that unless the 10k is tested, he strongly doubts more than 20k-30k.  Higher than 20-30k requires testing 10k.  If that test to 10k happens from 17k, then bull run continues to 70k-100k.  If it happens from 30k, then this bull run is over.  I believe one of his earlier posts said 2 years of a bear market this current bull market, but I'm hoping he'll clarify more once 10k is tested.

Disclaimer:  I'm solely relying on Google Translate. Perhaps a native Russian speaker can clarify.

It is strange to believe that anyone can serve as a kind of oracle, and sure a lot of those masterluc points make sense - but why should not any of us be able to think through these kinds of scenarios ourselves in order to come to our own reasonable projections regarding price dynamics, which price dynamics also do change based on volume and how much force and speed in which we experience certain price movements, up and down?

I will admit that personally, I don't project beyond one or two legs, and I suppose that makes masterluc and some of the others "special" to be projecting out longer time lines with underlying bullish assumptions (which have ended up playing out, largely).  

a lot of people pretend they are good at predicting tops and bottoms. As a matter of fact, only 1% or so are really good at it.
If everyone is good at everything, everyone could be Bill Gates or Elon Musk. But no, that's not how the world works.

Agreed all round, in returning to this forum, masterluc and trading full time, I now see him as just another guy with an opinion. His opinion is of course very valid and it guides us and allows us to discuss our way through different realistic scenarios as we approach them. We will literally talk our way to the top, and identify it as it's happening in this way or just after the fact. That's basically what we need to make the trade or sell the holdings or whatever we plan to do with that information. We won't be identifying the exact time and price now and trading that exactly, that seems ludicrous. There's an interesting trading/market podcast with Michael Covel who always laughs about the idea of prediction in markets. It took me a while to get that, you can't predict the future, you can only guess possibles and probables to give you an edge and align your expectations with reality.  

This is how I trade, as you say it's hard to project beyond one or 2 legs, but you can keep multiple scenarios in mind so you are not too surprised when one occurs over another, then when you identify all the signals that surround that scenario you can start to build a picture that equals confirmation of that scenario or a close enough likeness. Then you can trade it. It's always a bit messy, never perfect, and exact predictions always seem to me to be kind of painful in trading as they lead to expectations of the prediction coming true.


I like how luc is giving scenarios, at the moment he says $25-75k if X or Y. Seems a pretty good range of expectations I enjoy this thread and so glad you're all still here, let's continue talking our way to the next top.

"analysis never ends"

[JayJuanGee]

just one thing to note is that in the previous 2 bubbles after the pop the retracement was approximately 90% from top to bottom.  however the first bubble was more in the 95% retrace and the 2nd barely fell to about 88% i think. of course not an exact science here but if the retrace is getting less deep perhaps the next one will only be closer to 80%, which if the 10k hypothesis turns out to be correct would imply a top in the 50-70k range

But he is ruling that possibility out.  He is saying that unless the 10k is tested, he strongly doubts more than 20k-30k.  Higher than 20-30k requires testing 10k.  If that test to 10k happens from 17k, then bull run continues to 70k-100k.  If it happens from 30k, then this bull run is over.  I believe one of his earlier posts said 2 years of a bear market this current bull market, but I'm hoping he'll clarify more once 10k is tested.

Disclaimer:  I'm solely relying on Google Translate. Perhaps a native Russian speaker can clarify.

It is strange to believe that anyone can serve as a kind of oracle, and sure a lot of those masterluc points make sense - but why should not any of us be able to think through these kinds of scenarios ourselves in order to come to our own reasonable projections regarding price dynamics, which price dynamics also do change based on volume and how much force and speed in which we experience certain price movements, up and down?

I will admit that personally, I don't project beyond one or two legs, and I suppose that makes masterluc and some of the others "special" to be projecting out longer time lines with underlying bullish assumptions (which have ended up playing out, largely). 

a lot of people pretend they are good at predicting tops and bottoms. As a matter of fact, only 1% or so are really good at it.
If everyone is good at everything, everyone could be Bill Gates or Elon Musk. But no, that's not how the world works.

I have been in bitcoin for a bit more than 4 years, and ever since I started, I never really tried to predict shorter term price movements or even intermediary price movements; however, my overall presumption has continued to be that bitcoin is a good investment and in the longer term it is going to tend towards upwards.  My also underlying presumption regarding volatility has evolved too, and for that reason, I have more specifically begun to assert that the main thing that we can predict to have high odds of happening remains high volatility, and in about the past two years, I have developed and evolved systems that seem to better take advantage of the expected volatility in order to give me some profits, but the main thing is to provide me some insurance against periods or even longer term down side volatility.  It is not completely fool proof, but it has been working really well without having to get into either gambling habits or making attempts at predicting specifics regarding shorter-term price movements.

[pontikis13]

masterluc's latest message:

Пapдoньтe чтo нe пиcaл. Кopoчe cpaбoтaл мoй пpoпpиeтapный пpимa индикaтop. Hac ждёт тaки кoppeкция.

Дa вoт я тaкoй oптимиcт в пeccимиcтичнoм oбщecтвe и пeccимиcт в oптимиcтичнoм.

Moй пpoпpиeтapный индикaтop - мeжпoзвoнoчнaя гpыжa. Пepeд кpyтoй кoppeкциeй вocпaляeтcя тaк, чтo двигaтьcя нe мoгy. TA oтдыxaeт.

Эx, cтapocть нe paдocть. Кxe-кxe. Cтapaя бaбкa cтaлa peбятки.

Уй блaт. Гдe мoй диклoфeнaк....

Any heroic soul care to translate?

[RoadTrain]

masterluc's latest message:

Пapдoньтe чтo нe пиcaл. Кopoчe cpaбoтaл мoй пpoпpиeтapный пpимa индикaтop. Hac ждёт тaки кoppeкция.

Дa вoт я тaкoй oптимиcт в пeccимиcтичнoм oбщecтвe и пeccимиcт в oптимиcтичнoм.

Moй пpoпpиeтapный индикaтop - мeжпoзвoнoчнaя гpыжa. Пepeд кpyтoй кoppeкциeй вocпaляeтcя тaк, чтo двигaтьcя нe мoгy. TA oтдыxaeт.

Эx, cтapocть нe paдocть. Кxe-кxe. Cтapaя бaбкa cтaлa peбятки.

Уй блaт. Гдe мoй диклoфeнaк....

Any heroic soul care to translate?

He says that, according to his proprietary indicator - spinal hernia, a large correction is coming.

It inflames before corrections.

[pontikis13]

So he is basically joking that he is spending too much time sitting in front of the computer or something? Does it seem like he really believes there is a correction coming?

[Bitcoinaire]

Google translate:

"Pardonte that did not write. In short, my proprietary prima indicator worked. We are waiting for a correction.

Yes, I'm such an optimist in a pessimistic society and a pessimist in an optimistic.

My proprietary indicator is the intervertebral hernia. Before a steep correction inflamed so that I can not move. TA is resting.

Eh, old age is not fun. Khe-khe. The old woman became a child.

Uye blat. Where is my diclofenac ...."

[kfactor]

Google translate:

... The old woman became a child. ...

Uye blat. Where is my diclofenac .... Covfefe"

Profound. Just what I needed, thanks.

[Andergriff]

Sorry that did not write. In short, my proprietary prima indicator worked. We are waiting for a correction.

Yes, I'm such an optimist in a pessimistic society and a pessimist in an optimistic.

My proprietary indicator is the intervertebral hernia. Before a steep correction inflamed so that I can not move. TA is resting.

Eh, old age is not fun. Khe-khe (coughs). Grandma aged, guys.

Oh shit. Where is my diclofenac...

[Millionero]

get well soon бaбyшкa

[snowdropfore]

Sorry that did not write. In short, my proprietary prima indicator worked. We are waiting for a correction.

Yes, I'm such an optimist in a pessimistic society and a pessimist in an optimistic.

My proprietary indicator is the intervertebral hernia. Before a steep correction inflamed so that I can not move. TA is resting.

Eh, old age is not fun. Khe-khe (coughs). Grandma aged, guys.

Oh shit. Where is my diclofenac...

i think correction is good for bitcoin ,if go up like this ,the price will not be $70k. now the bitcoin is dumping ,i think it is a good sign ,the next target is $30k.

[Joe200]

Where is the correction going to? 13k? 11k? 9.4k?

[Hope_Trader]

Where is the correction going to? 13k? 11k? 9.4k?

yes

[600watt]

Where is the correction going to? 13k? 11k? 9.4k?

15 800