4 years later. All 5-digit numbers mentioned in this thread have been hit, and still without that crazy monthly candle. I'm not about to post a new chart showing a 400% candle from here, but I will make mention of some of the low ball valuations posted here were long...LONG overshot... and in half the time.  Keep on keeping on! b4l, you my homie!  |
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How about prices like this?  |
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So, does anyone still play this?
Should we reset the scores for a new season?
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So much pussy footing in here.
Yes, your wins are at someone else's expense. Easiest case, if you buy the lowest point of a bear market, someone sold those coins to you and is missing out on the profits from the subsequent rise (Losing). That means, whether they were in profit or not when they sold, they still missed out on further wins. Now, if you sell the absolute top before the bear comes back, obviously he who bought your coins loses.
All this talk about "if you wait long enough..." No! Not how this works at all. I don't care who you sold to, even at the top, even if they wait for profit on the next rise, PLENTY have lost to pay for your win. Trading is zero sum, period. Just the way it is. It do dat.
Lets do a little thought experiment.
Player A, player B and player C all buy in at $1 with $100 of capital. Price rises to $10 where player A sells to new player D for $1000. Price keeps rising to $15. Now the score is A=$1000, B=$1500, C=$1500 and D=$1500. Player A's missed profits of $500 went to player D and player D's initial investment of $1000 is where the profits for B and C come from. $1500 in profit total since $10 price.
Should player A buy back in at $15, he now has 50% less coins and 33% less value had he not sold early. So lets say players B and C each sold 30 and 20 coins respectively to player A and then the price tanks to $7.50. The new score is Player A=$375 or 50 coins, B=$525 or 70 coins (AND $450 cash), C=$600 or 80 coins (AND $300 cash) and D=$750 or 100 coins. losses for this round are A=-$625, B=-$525, C=-$600, D=-$750, and new total valuation is A=$375, B=$975, C=$900, D=$750.
Now think of the situation where Bitcoin is found to have a fatal flaw. The first few people get out with something, the rest are left holding a bag of useless 1's and 0's as the fiat evaporates from the market. <-This is also why "Market cap" is the absolute worst thing to derive the value of Bitcoin. There is no way everyone would ever get out for anything above $1.00. All the bid depths combined would only allow one or two large holders to exit fully.
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Fuck off with your market Cap metric. It is an illusion and falsely represents some bullshit value that is meaningless. BTW it was never at $800B.  It wouldn't necessarily require $350B to move the price to the 2017 high, either. |
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the way I see Technical Analysis is that it is and always has been a total bullshit that has no reason to be true. at least 90% of it is. that is why many call TA pseudoscience!
BUT the thing is, a lot of people follow it so it comes true!
imagine if majority expect a price drop. what would they do? they sell so price drops.
what if they expect a price rise? they buy so it goes up.
so I say TA is not predicting the future, it is shaping it. in this case when the third down happens the expectation is a rise. now combine that with all the $10k is the bottom, January is the time to drop and February is the rising month each year, the LN news, the adoption,.... and you get yourself a prediction that is coming true.
The thing you are missing is WHAT makes them think it's time to buy or sell. If the price is rising and TA doesn't tell you anything, then why does it tell us? Why doesn't price just keep rising?...since apparently, by your belief, there is endless demand no matter the price. In actuality, we see weakening trends because indicators are directly tied to rate of change/strength/momentum...etc. We see that buyers are running out for the time being and we take profit. Likewise, we see sellers hitting a price level that they just aren't willing to continue selling at or below so we buy. Besides 5 up and 3 down, there are other factors. What makes it "Psuedoscience" is akin to medicine. It will never be a perfect science, and neither will a doctor say medicine is a perfect science, but like science, we make our hypothesis based on the information we have on hand. @OP There is already a masterluc analysis thread, so go there to worship. |
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So lemme get this straight. That 9 days in mid-November is the same degree 4 to the two year bear market that was 2?  In blue...  |
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My mother-in-law contacted me after seeing an ad about crypto in her Gmail inbox saying to buy any and all crypto for the sake of crypto. Now she wants to invest everything she has. I said a very stern "NO"! I will will not be part of a self defeating dumb idea like that. This is a woman who has known for 7 years that I have been involved in this, but only now decides to get in.
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I use the logarithmatic charts for years now. Every reputable trader is now using logarithmatic charts because after some time during bitcoin's price evolution, if you zoom out and watch the all time chart, it constantly looks like it's going up, it looks bubbled.
This is exactly why people have been calling a bubble for years. "Look at the chart, it looks bubbled". I have been hearing this since $1000. Try looking at the log chart and not linear chart.
It's still a bubble, dude! Some of my holdings are up 8000x in 6 years and of that, 7500x in the last year. I use Log scale most of the time. Only very short time frames would I ever use linear and at those resolutions, it doesn't even matter which you use. |
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Theres still no chart here
Here! You would be paying me to take your coins if sha2 was broken  |
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Very similar.
For about 6 years, I averaged 3-5 hours per night, and it would start at 2-4 am. The last year, has been to a more normal 6 hours or so per night since real world business has consumed my time like charting and trading used to.
edit, what does this have to do with speculation?
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The protocol itself cannot be hacked. If a hacker infiltrates a single or even a group of bitcoin clients and changes the protocol on those computers, it would be seen by the network as a fork and not accepted by the rest of the network. Wallets on the other hand, can be hacked, or at least brute forced "collisions" can happen. No need to get someone's passwords or physical wallet.dat. You can simply type in any acceptable combination of chars and gain access to any coins in the address (if any exist) that corresponds to that private key. Now, on that note, the likelihood of someone randomly guessing yours or anyone else's private key, is so astronomically low that it is virtually a non-issue. It would take a lot of time and computer resources to even find a private key that contains coins. This is a good discussion on this. https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@orionsbelt/how-many-bitcoin-addresses-are-thereLet's see, 9x1059 combinations, If I guess 100,000,000 combinations per sec ( = 108 combinations per sec) it would only take about 9x1051 seconds.
Hmmm... 60 sec per minute x 60 min per hr x 24 hr per day x 365 days per year = 31,536,000 seconds per year. ( = approx 3x107 sec/yr)
9x1051 seconds / (3x107 seconds per year) = 3x1044 years.
uh oh, I'll need to speed thing up a bit.
To try all combinations in 30 years, I need to check 9x1059 / (30 years x 3x107 sec/yr) = 1051 combinations per sec for 30 years.
Yikes!
edit, yes, if this became trivial to process, then Bitcoin ded. D. E. D. dead |
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It went down and it touched less than $18,1k but i do not think that it will go down more than that.
In fact the price is already on $19k right now, so maybe that theory of buying in a new dip is over right now.
Stoy making false speculations because a lot of newbies are probably thinking that there is going to be a dip or maybe a crash, you a re just creating fud in here.
OP is telling people to buy when the price is going down. How is that FUD?? It dipped almost 10% in absolute terms. I would call that a dip. Not that OP said anything about selling, but if you sold 10BTC near the top, you would have an extra Bitcoin at the bottom. I wouldn't bitch about an 18k profit, plus it's up almost $1000 right now. How is that FUD? You nutters throw that phrase around too much. Just stop already |
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Hahaha and where is the dip? Stop trying to create fud in here, the cme futures are going to be released in a few hours from now, and i have been watching the prices and there haven't been any big red candle in there.
Stop making fud, there have been a lot of threads like this on the past, and they all are the same.
People would not sell all their bitcoins because a random guy is telling us to "sell our btc's" if we do not want to lose money from this.
And yes, of course that if there is a dip i will buy more.
Huh... I thought the silk road was closed!? do you not realize what thread you're in? I'm too lazy to look closer, but I think OP said the complete opposite of what you are saying they said. |
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For a bit of fun heres an idea for the top. How does a brief spike to $50k in the very near future sound ?  That would be similar to the first bubble peak of 2013 Then a crash, but first a ginormous spike I wonder if the reason many fail in TA is that they don't use the log price scale enough. Log scale (or better said, lack thereof) is only an issue when using trendlines during parabolic trends. Or just the visual appearance can be enough to scare you out of a long when you look at this  On short time frames, there is virtually no difference in the appearance. MA's, fibo, indicators are unaffected by log vs linear 50k is very possible in the very near future. Could come in the next couple of weeks |
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It sidelined.
There happened a double top, but the demand is so high that it sidelined instead of falling. That's why bitcoin is challenging TA, because of demand which is much higher than any stock. The demand will make it hard to short.
Now theres CME by 18th December, maybe we will have more money flowing in, and the price will go to 20k.
Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off. The fact its just raced up to here and is now going sideways is what led me to speculate that somebody else with big pockets saw the top was in and is now holding the price here, accumulating, ready to do something. What? I don't know. The difference here is it may not be done with the parabolic move. Think about how much slower the market moves now. The individual waves I mean, not the absolute price change. So this is just a longer corrective move within the larger parabola. I'd say don't beat yourself up over it, on breakout, buy back and ride it up to the next level. You are right in saying a move like this will end in bear market. It definitely will, but where the vertical rise ends is anyone's guess. I am expecting something closer to 60k before we get actual sustained bear market for a period of time. But that still isn't the end of the larger impulse, imo. Now, if we hang out here long enough, then that 60k figure rises. This consolidation only strengthens the longer term trend |
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So imagine the market was trying to correct right now. However, wall street is holding the price here, people "selling the top" are unloading coins into wall street hands. All the while they are scooping up futures contracts cheap for the 18-20k range. As the futures come due, wall street intensifies buying, all the sellers FOMO back in, price is pushed way up over the futures contract prices. Wall street ends up with stacks of coins they got for cheap, and stacks of dollars from futures profits! (Cool story bro') I like the speculation but why hold the price now? Futures contract expire a year from now right?  1 month, 2 months and 3 months from now |
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I'm pretty sure that $700 spike was due to futures opening and spiking up to 18k while stamp was at 15k. Then someone who apparently thinks Bitcoin might follow decided to buy it up in a single 5 minute candle. Manipulation aside, There is no reason the futures market should pull Bitcoin to it in either direction.
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LOL, futures will get raped by pure Bitcoin markets. While they are closed for the night/weekend/giftmas... Bitcoin exchanges truck on, and when it moves 10 or 20% during that time, futures will open with gaps and those on the wrong side will be ruined with losses and possibly owing above their account values. This will be great  CME futures only closed for 60 minutes per day, except closed weekends. Don't you think traders will close positions before the weekend or appropriately hedge across that gap every weekend? Also don’t you think the margin requirements will be appropriately computed on the high history of volatility of BTC? You seem to presume these folks can’t do math. But maybe you’re correct, that the margin requirements for safety are too high for most to play. However, if margin is provided in BTC that would be less onerous, e.g. miners hedging. This is the one that opened today. It has extended hours, but those sessions aren't available to everyone. Normal hours are 8:30am-3:15PM Monday-Friday. It might be marginally safer than I first expected but then again, I'm pretty sure I heard they allow 20x. If that is the case, it is definitely too high for a lot of traders to handle, hence why places like BFX only has 2.5x. Still a lot can happen during the times they are closed and I wouldn't put it past those that can, gaming it from both sides. It'll still be interesting to see how things go until it matures. |
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LOL, futures will get raped by pure Bitcoin markets. While they are closed for the night/weekend/giftmas... Bitcoin exchanges truck on, and when it moves 10 or 20% during that time, futures will open with gaps and those on the wrong side will be ruined with losses and possibly owing above their account values. This will be great |
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